There’s a 90 percent chance of heavy rain starting tonight around the scheduled first pitch of Game Three and continuing through Sunday. In downtown Manhattan it’s been overcast and unseasonably humid all day and as I look out the window now at 4:00, there are darker clouds rolling in and the wind has picked up considerably. The odds of the Yankees getting rained out to night seem very high. Still, on the off chance that the game is played tonight, here are my thoughts entering Game Three:

This is the eleventh time in eleven years that the Yankees have participated in a best-of-five ALDS, so we all know the deal by now. The road team is pleased to come home with a split, but Game Three is crucial. Much like on a 1-1 count to a batter, the difference between being up 2-1 or down 1-2 is tremendous. Thus, outside of the actual clincher itself, Game Three is easily the most important game in the series.

Good thing then that the Yankees have their ace ready to take the hill. Randy Johnson has faced the Angels twice this year. The first time he pitched six strong innings, but caught his spikes on the Angel Stadium mound, tweaking his back and forcing Joe Torre to turn to his bullpen early. After a classic case of Torre’s bullpen mismanagement, Vlad Guerrero hit a grand slam off of Tom Gordon to hand the Yankees a 6-5 loss. In Johnson’s next outing against the Angels, this time in New York, he had less success, allowing a pair of homers to the Molina brothers which drove in four runs. That time it was the Angel bullpen that blew the game, leading to an 8-7 Yankee win in eleven innings. Take away those two mistakes, however, and Johnson’s line in that game improves to 7 1/3 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 7 K.

As Johnson has allowed just three home runs in his last eight starts of the season (two legitimate shots to Vernon Wells and Manny Ramirez and Tony Graffanino’s fly ball to the red line atop the Green Monster) one hopes he’ll be able to keep the Angels in the park tonight. Over those eight starts, Johnson has gone 6-0 with a 1.93 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP, proving to be the ace the Yankees traded, ultimately, Dioner Navarro, Brad Halsey, Randy Choate, Nick Johnson and the Angels’ Juan Rivera for. Take out his ejection-shortened start in Toronto and his line improves to 49 2/3 IP, 27 H, 8 R, 2 HR, 11 BB, 42 K, 1.45 ERA, 0.77 WHIP in seven starts.

Paul Byrd, meanwhile, faced the Yankees just once this year, allowing three runs on nine hits and a walk over seven innings. Byrd is essentially Jon Leiber. Not only is he a righthanded sinkerballer who pitches to contact, owns righties (.211 GPA this year), struggles with lefties (.271 GPA), and absolutely refuses to walk anyone (just 28 walks on the season, 1.23 per 9IP), but since 2003 his career has followed the exact same path as Leiber’s. Both pitchers signed a free-agent deal with a perennial playoff team before the 2003 season, then missed that season due to Tommy John surgery, finally joining their new club with the 2004 season underway. Both then became a crucial part of that team’s rotation, pitching them into the playoffs where they made their postseason debuts, only to sign with a different club for 2005. What’s more, the two pitchers were born just six months and one day apart in 1970 and were later drafted out of college. Of course, Byrd is smaller than the 6’3″ 220-pound Leiber, and Leiber in no way resembles Kelsey Grammer.

After Bengie Molina went 2 for 4 with the game-tying hit and his second homer of the series in Game Two, Mike Scioscia said he would stick with Molina in the five hole behind Vladimir Guerrero, which is what he should have been doing all year (my comment, not his). Also, look for Scioscia to break out his right-handed line-up against Johnson, which would put Figgins in center, Robb Quinlan at third, and Steve Finley on the bench. I just hope he hasn’t gotten a hold of my ALDS preview in which I point out that his line-up against lefties should really look something like this (listed by position, stats vs. lefties only):

1B: Kotchman (L) .344 OBP
2B: Kennedy (L) .348 OBP
SS: Cabrera (R)
3B: Quinlan (R) .542 SLG
C: B. Molina (R) .356 GPA
RF: Guerrero (R) .315 GPA
CF: DaVanon (S) .365 GPA
LF: Anderson (L)
DH: J. Molina (R) .303 GPA

Instead we’ll probably get something like this (listed by batting order, stats vs. lefties only):

S – Chone Figgins (CF) .228 GPA
R – Orlando Cabrera (SS)
L – Garret Anderson (LF)
R – Vlad Guerrero (RF)
R – Bengie Molina (C)
R – Robb Quinlan (3B)
L – Darin Erstad (1B) .213 GPA
R – Juan Rivera (DH) .232 GPA
L – Adam Kennedy (2B)

Of course, Randy Johnson isn’t your run-of-the-mill lefty. We’re talking about a pitcher who has held Vlad Guerrero to a .200 OBP in 30 confrontations. That said, Orlando Cabrera has had great success against Johnson (8 for 22 with five walks and no Ks!), Erstad has handled the big Unit better than the typical lefty (5 for 20 with two walks and a homer), and we’ve already discussed what the Molina’s did to him in his last start against the Angels at Yankee Stadium.

Meanwhile, the only thing we know about the last four spots in the Yankee order is that two of them will be taken up by Robinson Cano and Johnson’s personal catcher John Flaherty. I for one would like to see Bubba Crosby back in center, even if having both Flaherty and Crosby in the line-up is less than ideal. If Torre decides to do that, his choice of DH becomes crucial. My initial choice would be Jorge Posada, who went 2 for 3 with a homer and a walk in Game Two. Joe is leaning in another direction:

“I’m not discounting [Posada as a DH],” Torre said on a conference call Thursday. “But we’ll look and decide what our options are against Byrd and go from there. Right now, the first five guys will stay the same and then we’ll arrange it from there on out. I’m not saying [Posada] won’t be the DH, but I think it’s doubtful.”

Sierra is likely, Torre said, “because he’s probably the most adept at it. He’s had the most experience. You know, he loves the pressure and all that. He certainly would be a consideration. I think he would be the first consideration, and then you work out and match them up from there.

“But again, we want to get [Sierra] involved because we know what he can bring to the table, especially being a switch-hitter, and they don’t have a left-hander coming out of the bullpen. The fact that Ruben has been down this road before, he would probably be the No. 1 guy we would look at.” (MLB.com)

That sounds like a lot of veteranitis double-talk (and frankly, it is), but that doesn’t mean Torre isn’t on to something. In 78 at-bats as a DH from 1996-2004, Jorge posted a pathetic .179/.293/.282 line (this year he went 3 for 10 with a walk). What’s more, Jorge is a dreadful 1 for 13 against Byrd in his career. Sierra, meanwhile, is 3 for 6 with a pair of homers against Byrd.

Still, Sierra hasn’t hit under any circumstances this year and that sample size against Byrd is ridiculously small. Thanks to reader Shaun P, we also know how and when it was assembled:

In 2001 with Texas, Sierra walked, struck out, and hit a grand slam in 3 PAs against Byrd (Byrd was a Royal at the time). Note this game was at Kauffman Stadium, which was a severe hitters’ park at the time. [the grand slam would also indicated that Byrd was strugging in that game as he’d loaded the bases in front of Sierra -CJC] In 2002 with Seattle, Sierra hit a single and a solo homer in 4 PAs aginst Byrd (still a Royal), this time at Safeco, of course not a hitters’ park.

So what about Bernabe Figueroa Williams? Bernie hit .294/.362/.459 from the DH spot this year and .261/.330/.416 from the left side of the plate, both improvements on his overall numbers. What’s more, Bernie is 5 for 15 off Byrd in his career with a pair of homers of his own, his best numbers against any of the Angels’ pitchers.

DHing Bernie allows Torre to use Posada to replace Flaherty as soon as Johnson comes out of the game (which is exactly what he should do), and keeps Sierra, who frankly should have been left off the roster in favor of Matt Lawton, out of the game.

That would result in this line-up:

R – Derek Jeter (SS)
R – Alex Rodriguez (3B)
L – Jason Giambi (1B)
R – Gary Sheffield (RF)
L – Hideki Matsui (LF)
L – Robinson Cano (2B)
S – Bernie Williams (DH)
R – John Flaherty (C)
L – Bubba Crosby (CF)

Though what I expect to see is:

R – Derek Jeter (SS)
R – Alex Rodriguez (3B)
L – Jason Giambi (1B)
R – Gary Sheffield (RF)
L – Hideki Matsui (LF)
S – Ruben Sierra (DH)
S – Bernie Williams (CF)
R – John Flaherty (C)
L – Robinson Cano (2B)

Say it ain’t so, Joe. Say it ain’t so.