In my preview of last year’s ALDS I wrote about how, for all the praise he receives as a manager, Mike Scioscia does a terrible job of filling out his lineup card. That didn’t change during the offseason. Adam Kennedy has a .349 on-base percentage over the past four seasons but remains buried in the ninth spot while Orlando Cabrera, who has never had an on-base percentage that high in any of his major league seasons and carries a .315 career mark, bats second yet again. Darin Erstad, who hasn’t had an OPS over .746 since 2000 continues to not only play every day, but bat in the middle of the line-up.

At least Scioscia has shifted Erstad back to centerfield, opening first base for Casey Kotchman, a huge upgrade that should have been made last year. Scioscia could similarly improve his lineup by starting Robb Quinlan at third and using the multi-talented Chone Figgins to force Erstad or Cabrera out of the lineup. Unfortunately misplaced loyalty in the case of Erstad and misplaced cash in the case of Cabrera have kept Figgins boxed in at third and Quinlan riding pine. Most startlingly, Scioscia has abandoned the complex platoon he employed last year that pulled the lefty Finley in favor of Quinlan against southpaws. The Angels have faced lefty starters in two of their three games thus far this season and Quinlan has yet to start, while the left-handed Erstad has started all three games.

The good news for Angels fans is that there offense is on the verge of a major rebirth. To the 30-year-old Vladimir Guerrero, the 28-year-old Figgins and the 23-year-old Kotchman, the Angels will soon add a full infield of prospects in 22-year-old first baseman/DH Kendry Moralis, 22-year-old second baseman Howie Kendrick, 21-year-old shortstop Brandon Wood, 25-year-old third baseman Dallas McPherson, and 23-year-old catcher Jeff Mathis, the last of whom is already on the 25-man roster and should be starting ahead of Jose Molina (yet another misallocation of resources by Scioscia).

The question is, should those eight men indeed coalesce into a dominating offense, will the Angels be able to maintain the pitching required to complete another Championship ballclub. If not, it will be a bitter irony as, for now, it’s the Angels’ pitching that makes them contenders. John Lackey experienced a breakout last year and could be even better this year. Twenty-three-year-old Ervin Santana will spend his first full season as a member of the rotation and could establish himself as a front-of-the-rotation future star. Kelvim Escobar salvaged an injury-shortened 2005 by returning from the DL as a dominating middle reliever. This year he returns to the rotation, where he was the Angels ace in 2004. Then there’s that guy who erroneously won the AL Cy Young last year.

Meanwhile, the Big Three in the Angels’ bullpen may just be the best in baseball, but Brendan Donnelly’s pixie dust appears to be wearing off and there’s considerable concern that Francisco Rodriguez could be headed for a big fall unless he agrees to correct his ugly mechanics. His increased wildness last year (4.28 BB/9 up from 3.54 the year before) is a warning sign that the 24-year-old closer would be wise to heed his coaches. As his comment in this year’s Baseball Prospectus annual says, “Rodriguez’s mechanics have eroded to the point that it’s now a matter of when he will suffer a catastrophic arm injury, not if.” Yikes.

Roster below the fold along with a note on Koyie Hill.

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

2005 Record: 95-67 (.586)
2005 Pythagorean Record: 93-69 (.574)

Manager: Mike Scioscia
General Manager: Bill Stoneman

Home Ballpark (2005 Park Factors): Angel Stadium (96/96)

Who’s Replacing Whom?

• Casey Kotchman replaces Steve Finely in the lineup and Darin Erstad at first base, Erstad replaces Finley in center field, and Edgardo Alfonzo replaces Kotchman on the bench
• Jeff Mathis replaces Bengie Molina
• Tim Salmon replaces Jeff DaVanon
• Jeff Weaver replaces Paul Byrd
• Kelvim Escobar and to a lesser degree Ervin Santana take over Jarrod Washburn’s starts, while J.C. Romero takes over Escobar’s relief innings
• Hector Carrasco replaces Kevin Gregg (minors)

Current Roster

1B – Casey Kotchman (L)
2B – Adam Kennedy (L)
SS – Orlando Cabrera (R)
3B – Chone Figgins (S)
C – Jose Molina (R)
RF – Vladimir Guerrero (R)
CF – Darin Erstad (L)
LF – Garret Anderson (L)
DH – Juan Rivera (R)

Bench:

R – Tim Salmon (OF)
R – Edgardo Alfonzo (IF)
R – Robb Quinlan (IF)
S – Maicer Izturis (IF)
R – Jeff Mathis (C)

Rotation:

R – Bartolo Colon
R – John Lackey
R – Jeff Weaver
R – Kelvim Escobar
R – Ervin Santana

Bullpen:

R – Francisco Rodriguez
R – Scot Shields
R – Brendan Donnelly
L – J.C. Romero
R – Hector Carrasco
R – Esteban Yan

Typical Lineup

S – Chone Figgins (3B)
R – Orlando Cabrera (SS)
R – Vladimir Guerrero (RF)
L – Garret Anderson (LF)
R – Juan Rivera (DH)
L – Darin Erstad (CF)
L – Casey Kotchman (1B)
R – Jose Molina (C)
L – Adam Kennedy (2B)

***

The Yankees have claimed failed catching prospect Koyie Hill off waivers from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Hill will replace Wil Nieves on the 25-man roster, though exactly what will happen to Nieves reamains to be seen. In the meantime, to clear room on the 40-man roster (which implies that Nieves is sticking around), Jorge DePaula has been outrighted to Columbus (which is curious because I saw him listed on a preliminary Trenton Thunder roster just a couple of days ago).

Removing DePaula from the roster is a no-brainer, but replacing Nieves with Hill barely seems worth the effort. Hill is a year and a half younger than Nieves, but doesn’t represent much of an upgrade at the plate, if any. Hill’s career minor league line, a large part of which was assembled in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, is .281/.348/.399 while Nieves’s, which also includes several season in the PCL, is .294/.322/.420. Nieves has been more consistant, hitting for averages in the .290 to .300 range year in and year out, but refusing to take ball four under any circumstances. Hill has shown more variance, with averages occassionally dipping down below .250 and walk rates that are all over the map. The only thing consistant about Hill’s batting record is an almost complete lack of power, though even that failed to hold true when he slugged .471 with Las Vegas in 2004 (note that Las Vegas is also where Bubba Crosby had his one good season at the plate in 2003).

Ultimately, I see little difference between these two players. Hill is a hair younger and can switch hit. That combined with his former prospect status could mean that his ceiling is a bit higher, but he, like Nieves, has yet to even get off the floor (Hill failed to beat out Chris Snyder for the D-back’s starting catcher job in spring training 2005 and was DFAed barely a year later–speaking of which, with Hill and Stinnett, the Yankees now have the same second and third-string catchers as last year’s Diamondbacks, this doesn’t feel like a good thing).

All of that said, we’ll find out if all of this third catcher nonensense has any purpose tomorrow when Joe Torre start’s Stinnett behind the plate in anticipation of starting Posada in Sunday’s day-game-after-night-game. If Posada isn’t the DH tomorrow night, then either man is just a wasted roster spot and the Yankees should quit this charade and promote a player who has a Phillipsian chance of getting into a game. Wait . . . never mind.