Okay, now things get serious. Going 20-8 against the cupcakes was a lot of fun, but now the Yankees face a twenty-game stretch in which 17 games come against contenders (with the other three coming against the Orioles, the only cupcake team to win a series from them over that last 28 games). Of those 17 games against contenders, 14 of them come against teams the Yankees are chasing for a playoff spot including this weekend’s opponent the Cleveland Indians.
This weekend’s series, which will conclude the season set between the two teams, was supposed to be a battle for Wild Card supremacy, but a few things have gotten in the way in recent days. To begin with, the Indians aren’t technically in the Wild Card picture anymore as they slipped past the freefalling Tigers to reclaim the AL Central lead a week ago. What’s more, it’s those pesky Mariners, who I remain convinced are all smoke and mirrors, not the Tigers, that hold the Wild Card lead entering tonight’s action. In fact, the Yankees are in a perfect tie with the Tigers this afternoon, both one game behind the M’s and a game and a half behind Cleveland. That’s a four-team cluster that could be completely rearranged come Sunday evening as the M’s visit Chicago, the Tigers host the A’s, and the Yanks and Tribe to battle in Cleveland.
The Yankees and Indians last met in April, just nine games into the Tribe’s snow-shortened season. The Yankees won the first two games of that series by a combined score of 19-5 behind Chase Wright’s major league debut in the opener and what would prove to be Kei Igawa’s best start of the season. The Yankees sent Darrell Rasner to the hill in the finale to complete their rookie troika, but Rasner was inexplicably pulled in the fifth and Luis Vizcaino coughed up four runs in the seventh. The Yanks entered the bottom of the ninth trailing 6-2 and facing Indians closer Joe Borowski. Borowski retired the first two batters, but Josh Phelps cracked a solo home run to keep the Yankees alive and bring them within three. Jorge Posada singled. Johnny Damon walked. Jeter singled Posada home. Abreu singled Damon home. And Alex Rodriguez hit a three-run homer to win the game 8-6.
Curiously the Indians were a better team then than they are now, while the Yankees were far worse. For the Yankees, the changes are obvious from the players they’re putting on the field. Simply compare this weekend’s starters–Phil Hughes, Mike Mussina, and Andy Pettitte–to the trio of Wright, Igawa, and Rasner that started the April series. For the Indians it’s more about their level of play. After posting a .635 winning percentage in April and May combined, the Tribe has gone 32-31 (.508) since, including a 15-18 record over their last ten series.
One reason Cleveland has been scuffling has been a lack of offense. Over those last ten series they’ve averaged just 4.18 runs per game. Now they enter this weekend’s series with DH Travis Hafner nursing a knee he injured sliding into second on Tuesday night. Hafner was removed from the following night’s game, hasn’t played since and likely won’t play tonight. Then again, Hafner, who’s hit just .234/.335/.388 since June 1, was already part of the problem. The Indians will likely replace him in the lineup with one of their platoon outfielders (see roster below) or by shifting Victor Martinez to DH and having Kelly Shoppach catch.
Less of a problem has been the Indians’ pitching, particularly tonight’s starter Fausto Carmona, who has turned in a quality start in 18 of 22 appearances and his last seven straight. Over those last seven starts, the groundballing Carmona has gone 5-2 with a 1.68 ERA and just one home run allowed. That’s further evidence of how much the offense has been struggling as Carmona has lost his last two starts by scores of 3-1 and 1-0. Carmona also started that wild series finale in the Bronx back in April, holding the Yankees to two runs (one of them on a Jason Giambi solo homer) on a walk and six hits over six innings.
Phil Hughes was in triple-A back then, but he’ll be on the mound in Cleveland tonight looking to build his stamina. After throwing 91 pitches in his final rehab start, Hughes threw 92 pitches in his last start against the Royals, but appeared to tire around 70. Jose Molina will catch Hughes as Jorge Posada has a stiff neck. Wilson Betemit gets the start at first base. Despite that April homer, Giambi is not in the lineup, rather Damon gets the start at DH.
Cleveland Indians
2007 Record: 65-50 (.565)
2007 Pythagorean Record: 64-51 (.553)
Manager: Eric Wedge
General Manager: Mark Shapiro
Home Ballpark (2007 Park Factors): Jacobs Field (97/98)
Who’s Replacing Whom?
Kenny Lofton replaces David Dellucci (DL)
Franklin Gutierrez (minors) replaces Andy Marte (minors)
Asdrubal Cabrera (minors) replaces Mike Rouse (minors)
Chris Gomez replaces Jeremy Sowers (minors)
Rafael Perez (minors) replaces Fernando Cabrera
Edward Mujica (minors) replaces Jason Davis
25-man Roster:
1B – Ryan Garko (R)
2B – Josh Barfield (R)
SS – Jhonny Peralta (R)
3B – Casey Blake (R)
C – Victor Martinez (S)
RF – Trot Nixon (L)
CF – Grady Sizemore (L)
LF – Kenny Lofton (L)
DH – Travis Hafner (L)
Bench:
R – Franklin Gutierrez (OF)
R – Jason Michaels (OF)
R – Chris Gomez (IF)
S – Asdrubal Cabrera (IF)
R – Kelly Shoppach (C)
Rotation:
L – C.C. Sabathia
R – Fausto Carmona
R – Paul Byrd
R – Jake Westbrook
Bullpen:
R – Joe Borowski
R – Rafael Betancourt
L – Aaron Fultz
R – Tom Mastny
L – Rafael Perez
R – Roberto Hernandez
R – Edward Mujica
R – Jensen Lewis
60-day DL: L – David Dellucci (OF)
Typical Lineup:
L – Grady Sizemore (CF)
L – Kenny Lofton (LF)*
R – Casey Blake (3B)
S – Victor Martinez (C)
L – Travis Hafner (DH)
R – Ryan Garko (1B)
L – Trot Nixon (RF)*
R – Jhonny Peralta (SS)
R – Josh Barfield (2B)
*Corner outfielders Lofton and Nixon are in strict righty/lefty platoons with Jason Michaels and Franklin Gutierrez respectively. The typical Cleveland batting order against lefties has Michals and Gutierrez batting seventh and eighth with everyone from Blake through Garko moving up a spot.
