When the Red Sox came to the Bronx for a three-game series two and a half weeks ago I wrote that “the Yankees still only have one route to the postseason, and that’s the Wild Card.” The Yankees were eight games behind Boston coming into that series. After sweeping the Sox, they were five behind. In the two weeks since, the Yankees have actually lost a game in the standings another improbable sweep would still leave them 2.5 games behind with just 14 games remaining in the season. Boston will have just 12 games left after this weekend, none of them against a team that enters today’s action with a winning record. Baseball Prospectus’s Postseason Odds give the Yankees a 2 percent chance of winning the division (but an 87 percent chance of winning the Wild Card). As hard as it might be to remember, this weekend’s series in Boston is far more about holding off the Tigers (who are a solid 3.5 games back in the Wild Card race, but have won seven of their last nine), than it is about catching the Red Sox.

If that dilutes the rooting a bit, here’s something else to root for: the Cleveland Indians. The Indians currently trail the Angels by one game in the overall AL standings. If the the Indians can pass the Angels, then the Tribe, not the Halos, would be the team the Wild Card winning Yankees would face in the ALDS. That’s a far more favorable matchup for the Bombers given that they went 3-6 against the Angels this year, but swept the Tribe in their six giames against Cleveland. The bad news is that the Angels, who are the better team to begin with, have the easier schedule remaining with only a four-game set against the finally free-falling Mariners of much concern, while Cleveland has three against the M’s and three against those surging Tigers.

Back to Boston, this series features the same three pitchers for each team as the last series in New York, only with Roger Clemens and Chien-Ming Wang switching places in the final two games. Tonight we get a rematch of Andy Pettitte and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Matsuzaka, who leads the AL in pitcher abuse points, has been a mess recently, going 1-4 with a 9.57 ERA in his last five starts, including his last outing against the Yankees in which allowed five runs in 6 1/3 innings thanks in part to his putting four players on base for free (three walks and a hit batsman).

Pettitte, meanwhile, is the Stopper (since the All-Star break: 9-2, 3.14 ERA, 9 of 12 quality starts falling just one out short in two others). He countered Matsuzaka with a gem in which he allowed only the leadoff batters to reach base and held the Sox to three runs over seven innings, striking out six. With last night’s loss, he’s even got a potential losing streak to stop.

More good news for Pettitte: Manny Ramirez, who hit one of two homers off Pettitte in that last matchup between these two teams, is still out with the strained oblique that took him out of that game. His replacement, rookie prospect Jacoby Ellsbury (hitting .400/.419/.750 on the month), missed Wednesday night’s game with a injury to his wright wrist. Bobby Kielty gets the start in left tonight hitting from his stronger right side against the lefty Pettitte. As for the Yanks, their lineup looks like it did the first two days in Toronto, with Matsui getting the start in the field over DH Johnny Damon.

Boston Red Sox

2007 Record: 89-58 (.605)
2007 Pythagorean Record: 94-53 (.638)

Manager: Terry Francona
General Manager: Theo Epstein

Home Ballpark (2007 Park Factors): Fenway Park (102/101)

Changes:

Doug Mirabelli was activated from the DL
The following players were called-up after rosters expanded:

• Jacoby Ellsbury
• Brandon Moss
• Royce Clayton
• Jon Lester
• Clay Buchholz
• Devern Hansack
• Bryan Corey

John Lester has replaced Julian Tavarez in the rotation, with Tavarez moving to the bullpen.

25-man Roster:

1B – Kevin Youkilis (R)
2B – Dustin Pedroia (R)
SS – Julio Lugo (R)
3B – Mike Lowell (R)
C – Jason Varitek (S)
RF – J. D. Drew (L)
CF – Coco Crisp (S)
LF – Manny Ramirez (R)*
DH – David Ortiz (L)

Bench:

L – Jacoby Ellsbury (OF)
S – Bobby Kielty (OF)
L – Brandon Moss (OF)
L – Eric Hinske (UT)
L – Alex Cora (IF)
R – Royce Clayton (IF)
R – Doug Mirabelli (C)
R – Kevin Cash (C)

Rotation:

R – Josh Beckett
R – Curt Schilling
R – Tim Wakefield
L – Jon Lester
R – Daisuke Matsuzaka

Bullpen:

R – Jonathan Papelbon
L – Hideki Okajima
R – Eric Gagne
R – Mike Timlin
R – Julian Tavarez
R – Kyle Snyder
R – Manny Delcarmen
L – Javier Lopez
R – Bryan Corey
R – Devern Hansack
R – Clay Buchhholz

60-day DL: R – Brendan Donnelly, R – Matt Clement

Lineup:

R – Julio Lugo (SS)
R – Dustin Pedroia (2B)
L – David Ortiz (DH)
R – Mike Lowell (3B)
R – Kevin Youkilis (1B)
L – J. D. Drew (RF)
S – Jason Varitek (C)
S – Bobby Kielty*
S – Coco Crisp (CF)

*Manny Ramirez is still out with the back injury he suffered in the opener in the Bronx. He had a good batting practice session on Wednesday, but will not start tonight’s opener. Kielty will only start against the lefty Pettitte with either Eric Hinske or Brandon Moss starting against the righties if Ramirez is still unable to play.