Most likely this is simply another period of transition as the 24-year-old Garza works to establish himself alongside lefty Scott Kazmir (also 24) and righty James Shields (26) to give the Rays the best trio of starters their brief existence, prospects from Longoria and Brignac to 2007 top pick and potential ace David Price continue to fight their way toward the majors, and established starters such as Upton and catcher Dioner Navarro attempt to mature on the job. The rate at which each of those things happen will determine the rate of the Rays’ improvement. Heck, by the All-Star break, this team could have Longoria and any of a handful of pitching prospects in place, Garza, Upton and company could be thriving, and the Rays could be well on their way to that 88-win projection, but given their bad luck and self-defeating maneuvers such as the demotion of Longoria, I just don’t see it happening.
While the Rays’ have made incremental improvements in their pitching and defense, their offense should break even as Carlos Peña regresses from his monster breakout season of a year ago. The result is likely something resembling a well-balanced 75-win team, which is a nice step up from a duck-and-cover 67-win team, but it’s not about to change the complexion of the division. At least not this season. –Cliff Corcoran, April 4, 2008
Uhm . . . oops.
To be fair a lot of those “things” that I said needed to happen for the Rays to become a winning team have happened. Longoria was called up and installed at third base just a week after I wrote the above and has since emerged as the second-best third baseman in the American League behind Alex Rodriguez by hitting .283/.354/.535 while playing fantastic defense. Longoria, who has hit .331/.397/.653 since June 1, is probably the most deserving of the Final Vote candidates for the final spot on the AL All-Star roster. Dioner Navarro, who is hitting .317/.371/.436, is already on the All-Star roster and has been the second best catcher in the league in the first half. B.J. Upton has lost a lot of the power he showed last year, but has made up for it with an tremendous improvement in his approach at the plate as evidenced by the drop in his K/BB ratio from 2.37 in 2007 to 1.21 and his .391 on-base percentage against a .277 average. Garza overcame some early-season elbow trouble and has posted a 3.02 ERA in his last 14 starts. Reid Brignac and pitching prospect Mitch Talbot have had tastes of the major leagues already this year.
Everything has gone according to the Rays’ plan in the first half. They have the best defensive efficiency in baseball. That has lifted their pitching from last in the league to third, with both Garza and lefty ace Scott Kazmir, who starts against Andy Pettitte tonight, benefiting greatly on balls in play with BABIPs in the low .260s. Former Dodgers prospect Edwin Jackson, still just 24 year old, has gotten a lift as well with a .281 BABIP and a league-average major league ERA which is more than a run better than his career mark. Rounded out by Andy Sonnanstine, who has a 3.15 ERA in his last seven starts, the Rays have a solid five-man rotation of which the 26-year-old James Shields is the oldest member. More good pitching out of the bullpen and a surprisingly strong offense led by the rookie Longoria, a career year from four-corner utility man Eric Hinske (.264/.349/.524), and the robust on-base percentages of Upton and Navarro, have put the Rays in a position from which they could post a .446 winning percentage the rest of the way and still fulfill PECOTA’s bold 88-win projection.
Odds are they’ll do better than that. Despite all of the above going their way, the Rays have still suffered from repeated injuries to closer Troy Percival and DH Cliff Floyd. Garza and Kazmir have both lost time to injury as well, and Rocco Baldelli hasn’t played above A-ball all year. What’s more, shortstop Jason Bartlett, who came over in the deal for Garza, was supposed to be the anchor of their improved defense, but has been a disappointment in the field and an embarrassment at the plate (.204/.268/.358, only slightly better than Jose Molina). Bartlett is on the DL with a knee sprain right now, opening the door to an improvement at his position as prospect Reid Brignac battles Ben Zobrist for playing time at shortstop. In addition to the upgrade at Bartlett’s spot, the Rays should be able to expect more pop from Upton and more than the league-average production they’ve received from Carl Crawford in the first half.
Good health and those slight improvements on offense could offset some of the expected regressions elsewhere. With 74 games left to play, if the Rays merely played that the level the Yankees have in the first half (.528 winning percentage entering tonight’s game) they would win 94 games, a total that could put them in the postseason, as it did for the Yankees a year ago.
Given all of that, the Yankees have done well to split their first ten games against the Rays this season. However, four of those five wins came in April. In their last meeting in mid-May, the Rays took three of four from the Bombers at the Trop. Coming into this week’s brief two-game set in the Bronx, the Rays are red-hot having won 11 of their last 13 including a three-game sweep of the Red Sox.
The good news is that Kazmir has cooled off after a stretch of six starts in May, including one against the Yankees, in which he allowed four runs in 41 innings. Since then, Kazmir has posted a 4.67 ERA and turned in just one quality start in five tries, that coming back on June 11. Kazmir still isn’t giving up very many hits, but the ones he is giving up are traveling, as he’s allowed a .471 slugging percentage over those five starts with nearly half of his hits allowed going for extra bases. He’s also getting wild again, walking 5 men per nine innings over those last five starts. Over the same stretch, Andy Pettitte was dominant for four starts (4-0, 1.00 ERA) before his ugly outing against the Red Sox on Thursday.
Despite yesterday’s off-day, Jose Molina will make his third-straight start behind the plate tonight with Jason Giambi getting a day off against the lefty Kazmir. Jorge Posada will DH with Wilson Betemit at first base. Those two are hitting fifth and sixth in the order ahead of Robinson Cano despite the fact that Cano is hitting .396/.400/.625 over his last dozen games (note the complete lack of walks, those extra OBP points are from a HBP).
Tampa Bay Rays
2008 Record: 55-33 (.625)
2008 Pythagorean Record: 52-36 (.596)
Manager: Joe Maddon
General Manager: Andrew Friedman
Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Tropicana Field (98/100)
Who’s Replaced Whom:
Ben Zobrist (DL) has replaced Jason Bartlett (DL)
Willy Aybar (DL) has replaced Andy Cannizaro (minors)
Reid Brignac (minors) has replaced Scott Dohmann
Grant Balfour (minors) has replaced Troy Percival (DL)
25-man Roster:
1B – Carlos Peña (L)
2B – Akinori Iwamura (L)
SS – Ben Zobrist (S)
3B – Evan Longoria (R)
C – Dioner Navarro (S)
RF – Eric Hinske (L)
CF – B.J. Upton (R)
LF – Carl Crawford (L)
DH – Cliff Floyd (L)
Bench:
R – Jonny Gomes (OF)
L – Gabe Gross (OF)
L – Reid Brignac (IF)
S – Willy Aybar (IF)
R – Shawn Riggans (C)
Rotation:
L – Scott Kazmir
R – Edwin Jackson
R – Andy Sonnanstine
R – James Shields
R – Matt Garza
Bullpen:
R – Grant Balfour
R – Dan Wheeler
R – Gary Glover
L – Trever Miller
L – J. P. Howell
R – Jason Hammel
15-day DL: R – Jason Bartlett (SS), R – Troy Percival, R – Al Reyes, R – Chad Orvella
60-day DL: R – Rocco Baldelli (OF)
Typical Lineup:
L – Akinori Iwamura (2B)
L – Carl Crawford (LF)
R – B.J. Upton (CF)
L – Carlos Peña (1B)
R – Evan Longoria (3B)
L – Cliff Floyd (DH)
S – Dioner Navarro (C)
L – Erik Hinske (RF)
S – Ben Zobrist (IF)
