Don’t look now, but the Rays have done an excellent job of restocking on the cheap for another run in 2009. As I write in my new piece over on SI.com on the Milton Bradley and Pat Burrell deals:
[w]ith Price, Burrell and the Joyce/Perez platoon representing significant upgrades on Jackson, Floyd, Gross and assorted fill-ins, the Rays could very well repeat or even improve on their surprising 2008 showing, much the way the 1992 Braves surpassed their worst-to-first showing the previous year.
Indeed, with Upton, 24, having regained his home run stroke in the postseason following a year in which his power had been sapped by a torn labrum, Longoria entering his first full season after being named AL Rookie of the Year and Crawford looking to bounce back entering his walk year, the Rays could experience a significant increase in their run scoring in 2009, while a strong rookie season from Price, 23, would help balance out any regression experienced by the other starters. Meanwhile, having the right-handed Burrell in a lineup with fellow righty sluggers Upton and Longoria makes the Rays well-prepared for their impending AL East showdowns with lefty aces CC Sabathia of the Yankees and Jon Lester of the Red Sox following a season in which Tampa Bay struggled against lefty starters. Thus, in part due to their sizeable head-start, the Rays have kept pace with the Yankees’ $423.5 million spending spree at the low, low cost of $16 million.
Everyone seems to be implying that Burrell will be a huge improvement, but that just isn't so. The combination of Hinske, Floyd and Gross put up an OPS+ of approximately 106, so it's not like Burrell is replacing a black hole. While you can point to some upside for the Rays' offense, it is also important to remember the team had an OPS+ of 99.
The success of the Rays was built on pitching, and I think there are some reasonable doubts that they will be able to repeat that performance, particularly in the bullpen. Also, the Rays have a young staff that pitched a lot of innings in 2008, so that could wind up taking a toll this year. Furthermore, even if Price is added to the rotation, he'll likely have an innings limit. Of course, he may also hits some bumps in the road as well...simply assuming he will be dominant is a leap.
Burrell is a perrenial 120+ OPS guys while Joyce posted a 116 as a rookie. Plus Upton's power is going to come back in a big way. Their offense was middling last year, yes, it will be far better this year. That's my point.
I'm not worried about their starters. Kazmir didn't throw that many innings last year because he started the year on the DL. Shields is 27 and his regular season innings total for last year was the same as 2007, meaning he only increased by his 25 postseason frames, which is fine for a pitcher his age. Sonnanstine will be 26 on Opening Day and threw fewer regular season innings last year than he did in 2007 between the majors and minors. Garza's the only guy who I think might have some hangover, and Price should help balance that out, not by being dominant just yet, but by being very good nonetheless, though yes, like Joba, he'll be on a limit.
When the hell did the Yankees sign Sergio Mitre?
On a related note, why?
Good for the Rays. What's fun about watching the Yanks beat the D-Rays of 10 years ago. The only thing I am now looking forward to is the team getting out of that God-Forsaken Dome. Watching those games on TV is fugly. I like these shots of the future possible stadium of the Rays.
http://tinyurl.com/yvzsl2
That was their first move this offseason on Nov. 3. He's rehabbing from TJ, so they figured, why not give him a mL deal with a club option for 2010 in case his rehab goes well. They did it with Victor Zambrano and Eric Milton last year (later in their rehabs and minus the option). I expect Mitre to have about as much impact. Since he's rehabbing he won't even take a mL rotation spot away from anyone.
Going from a ~106 OPS+ to a 120 is a hefty jump. Going from three guys putting up a 106 to one guy putting up a 125 is an even bigger jump. And that they got him on just a two-year deal? Even better.
It'll be interesting to see Burrell adapt to AL pitching.
[1] I think you're underestimating the Rays, especially by referencing OPS+.
The biggest problem with OPS / OPS+ - to me, its a killer - is that it weighs OBP and SLG equally, and they aren't even close to being equal.
Nothing correlates with scoring runs better than OBP (at least among the more basic metrics). The Rays had the (tied for) 4th best OBP in the AL last year (and were 2nd in walks). Adding Burrell as their DH improves their OBP, and should lead to more runs scored. Even if the pitching staff and defense regresses, say by 50 runs (ie the 5 extra wins they got over their pythag record), they've probably added at least that many runs into the offense side of the column for all the reasons Cliff points out.
It will be a lot of fun to see what happens in the AL East this year.
Excellent point, Shaun. Not only were the Rays a good OBP team last year and Burrell makes them better, but they're also adding all that power (Burrell, a healthy Upton, a full year of Longoria, Joyce), which will help turn all those baserunners into runs (something they had some problems with last year).
Soooo.....time to sign Manny? One-year at 24 million? Say RF? Trade Nady for Winn? Swisher to fill-in as necessary?
Our long national nightmare is over!
Yankees sign Angel Berroa to a minor league deal to compete for the bench spot.
I was so happy when we finally rid ourselves of Betemit. Now like Michael Myers, he's coming back, but even worse.
Gabe Gross v. the Yankees in 2008, albeit in 23 ABs:
.435/.519/.696/1.215
I doubt that any of the replacements will do better than that.
[2] Burrell has been a perrenial 120 OPS+ guy, but that was in the weaker NL league and during his prime. Being one year older and coming to a stronger league, Burrell could see some slippage. If that happens, he will be a much smaller upgrade than you seem to suggest.
[7] The Rays were tied for 4th in OBP with two other teams, all of which were one point ahead of Cleveland. In other words, the Rays were pretty much middle of the pack (the AL pretty much had OBP outliers at the top and bottom and one close grouping in the middle).
As I mentioned in [1], there are definite signs of offensive improvement, but this was still a league average offense. I am not comfortable assuming the Rays will become an offensive force based on their off season. Also, guys like Hinkse, Floyd, Baldelli and Gross had over 1,200 PAs that were probably around he 105 OPS+ level. It's not like the Rays jettisoned a bunch of scrubs.
More to my main point, however, is the Rays success was built mostly on pitching. Garza saw a very significant innings increase, as mentioned. and I don't think you can simply ask Price to fill those innings should he miss some time, especially because it looks like Price is being asked to fill the void left by the trade of Jackson. In addition, Andy Sonnanstine is far from a lock to be as productive (he actually was just a shade above league average to begin with), while Kazmir is always a good bet to miss some time on the DL. In other words, there are some definite questions about the rotation...and that's before you even consider whether the bullpen can repeat its remarkable performance. The bullpen wasn't just solid...it was excellent. When I look at the names that compiled those numbers, I have a hard time to believing they will come close to repeating their 2008 performance.
[7] Also, while studies have shown the OBP correlates best to runs scored, the fact remains that the Rays were 8th in Runs per game (in a hitter's park), making them league average (of course, their OBP wasn't far from league average either). The difference between the Rays and Tigers and Twins, two teams with the same .340 OBP, were the ability to hit for power and contact, respectively. The Rays will need to improve in at least one of those departments.
Also, not only does Pythagorean W-L suggest the Rays picked up some lucky wins, but a 29-18 W-L in one run games also suggests some good fortune. Usually, those "lucky" wins come as a result of an outstanding bullpen. If the Rays see significant slippage in the pen, which I suspect, some of that luck could run out. While I don't expect the Rays to return to the bottom of the division, I think a win total in the mid-80s looks appropriate.