I am sad today. As Alex posted here, Baseball Toaster, the former home of Banter and many other cool blogs, is closing up shop. I wish the proprietors of these blogs only the best in their future endeavors.
Now onto the news:
- With football season now over, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com recaps the Yanks off-season, and looks ahead to Spring Training.
- The L.A. Times has a very positive review of Torre’s book, including this bit:
And yet, “The Yankee Years” masterfully interweaves these larger issues into a detailed account of the rise and fall of Torre’s dynasty, a team that won four World Series in the first five years he was managing — and then did not go all the way again.
The credit for this belongs to Verducci, senior baseball writer for Sports Illustrated and SportsIllustrated.com. He is, if truth be told, the real author of “The Yankee Years,” which is not a memoir, regardless of how it’s been portrayed.
Written in the third person, the book is more an extended piece of reporting interspersed with long quotes from Torre and many others, which at times makes for an interesting tension between the manager’s recollections and Verducci’s broader point of view.
[My take: My cynical side thinks that the Times gave a positive review in order to keep on Torre’s good side … keep a nice friendly “working relationship”. But then I realize that the reviewer isn’t part of the sports department … he’s the books editor, and my cynicism can rest easy.]
- Joel Sherman of the Post takes a look at the Yankees bench, and has some concerns:
But the Yankee second level is not impressive at present, unless they keep both Nady and Swisher. They still have the same all-field/no-hit backup to Posada in Jose Molina. The backup infielder will either be Cody Ransom or Angel Berroa. And the backup outfielder would be the loser of the already dubious center field battle between Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner. I see some defensive ability with Molina and Berroa, speed with Gardner, a flawed switch hitter in Cabrera and perhaps some righty pop with Ransom. But for a $200 million payroll, this is poor insurance.
But if the Yanks keep Nady in right and Swisher as a super-sub, it gets, at least, a little bit more attractive. Swisher is an above-average defender in left, right and at first. He is a switch-hitter with power and patience. He could play center field in an emergency.
[My take: Sherman is preaching to the choir here … we Banterites have been barking about the subpar bench for a few years now, especially in light of the massive payroll invested in an aging roster.]
- If you’ve been debating over whether to take the Yankees’ suggested seat relocation for a 41-game plan next year, you many want to get off the fence.
- Over at ESPN.com, Rob Neyer tries to value the declining skills of Bobby Abreu:
Abreu’s OPS+ last year was 120; the year before that it was 114. Those numbers are good, but far from dreamy. Throw in Abreu’s defense — which probably can’t be as awful as advertised, but certainly isn’t good — and it becomes impossible to justify paying Abreu anything like the $16 million he earned last year.
According to FanGraphs, Abreu was worth around $6 million last season. I’m a little skeptical about that figure, because a big chunk rests on the notion that after posting a minus-4 Ultimate Zone Rating in 2007, he plummeted to minus-25 in 2008. When we see a difference like that, we have to wonder if it’s due to a difference in performance and ability, or perhaps a difference in luck and measurement.
- The legendary Celerino Sanchez would have turned 65 today. Sanchez’s claim to fame was that he was one of the starting 3B just prior to Graig Nettles taking over. Sanchez died in 1992 at the age of 48.
[My take: B-R.com shows him being acquired by the Yanks in a 1971 trade with the Mexico City Tigers. Were “trades” between the “U.S.” majors and the Mexican Leagues common back then?]
- On this date in 1998, the Yankees replace recently resigned general manager Bob Watson with Brian Cashman.
With the Dodgers continuing to "low ball" Manny, I wonder if the Yankees couldn't now swoop in with a backloaded 2-year contract for something like $46mn ($16mn this year + $30mn next year). If they traded Nady, that would make the net cost $9mn this season. Then, when Damon and Mastui come off the books, the next cost in 2010 would be $4mn.
i'm on board for that william.
as for the bench - molina is more than suitable as a buc - he is just not suitable as anything more than a buc. as we have already dicussed here, it is crucial posada can with stand full-time catching duties. if not, then you have to go from there and hope cervilli can replicate his mil numbers or make a trade.
utility infielder is a bit scary. however, what are the other possibilities? i have read occasional clamor for wigginton, but i don't see him being able to handle middle infield. if there were a middle infielder who could hit - they would have a ft job. so, while this position needs to be upgraded, there's not much out there.
until the yanks deal nady or swisher, i am not worried about the outfield (though some manny or dun insurance for this year and as replacements for next year should be explored)
[1] Ah, but what about the year after? Not a lot of big corner OF bats on the market the next couple of years. Holliday will be available, but there's no guarantee the Yanks will get him. For me, and I know he's a butcher in the field, I'd sign Dunn now to a backloaded 4-year contract and figure out playing time for '09 later. Because once 2009 is done, with Nady and Matsui and Damon gone, there will be plenty of ABs for Dunn.
[3] It's hard to worry about who will play LF in 2011 when you have so much invested in this season. If anything, signing Manny to a short-term deal would give the Yankees more flexibility in figuring out who will be their SS/CF/C of the future. If the Yankees are going to hand out another long-term deal, I'd rather it go to someone at those positions as opposed to a right fielder.
[4] Make that left fielder.
[1] I wouldn't mind seeing that. Just think of the lineup possibilities.
Joel Sherman of the Post takes a look at the Yankees bench, and has some concerns:
The reason why the Yankee bench is what it is, and has been for the past few years is because their starting lineup had proven to be durable.
Over at ESPN.com, Rob Neyer tries to value the declining skills of Bobby Abreu:
Even if he doesn't believe that Abreu deserves a -25 UZR, it doesn't change that Abreu is a bad defender (having posted UZR's of -4, -15, -6, -11 in prior seasons). If a team signs him, it will probably be @ DH. And even then, will teams want to commit $10M to a DH?
Then again, the Mets just overpaid for Oliver Perez, so I guess anything's possible?
[1] Thinking it through even further, maybe the structure could be $10mn in 2009, $30mn in 2010 and 30mn in 2011 with a $10mn buyout. Not only does that still guarantee $50mn, but it allows Manny and Boras to claim they got a $70mn/3-year deal, which has pretty much been their goal all season long.
Swisher's the key to all of this, and Damon's ability to play CF some 50%ish of the time could be important. If Po is going to be out, I would want to at least try out Damon back in center, flanked by Nady and Swisher. At least some of the D lost in the OF is made up by the D at C, and the hitting lost at C is made up at CF - not that any are directly comparable... but for giggles.
Count me as dubious on Manny - I just don't think there's any money left, not 10m this year, or 30m in years 2 or 3, or otherwise. If his price comes way down, hell ya. Best case would be multiple of the Abreu/Dunn/Manny group signing 1 year deals, as the Yanks will really need a DH next year & on (and a LF...) Of course if someone blows the Yanks away with a sweet offer for Nady (or Swisher), Manny all the way.
Wow I'm really on the fence about all this. Both the prospect of trading Swish or Nady, and the prospect of getting Manny on a 'reasonable' two year deal.
The lineup with Manny is downright scary. As in - here come the 1000+ run predictions. And 100+ wins. And, and, and... The defense? Not so much :-)
But as outlined in [1] I guess I'd have to say go for it, particularly if the offer for Nady or Swish is indeed handsome...
You know in all what this really points to is how big a deal it is that Melky didn't pan out (or, for you optimists, isn't looking like he's going to pan out). If he could hit like a ML caliber CF'er, or gasp corner OF'er, then things would look a lot rosier this year and beyond.
[8] Something to consider; (Boras) Manny just rejected a 1-year $25 million offer by the Dodgers, according to E@#$.
[11] Manny and Boras are really looking for big money, a la the Yanks, but who really has the money he's looking for (unless they all open their books, fat chance). Seems the Dodgers are thinking the same as we are talking about with Cashman possibly swooping in with a "better" offer, so they up the annual value on a short-term and dare anyone else to top it within the parameters that Boras is seeking.
I don't see Manny coming here unless he simply has an axe to grind. And I don't really blame Manny for not taking the one-year, because the Dodgers are hedging that the economy will get better next year (most pundits are saying that it won't) and then he's a year older a a dollar short. I do see Boras turning the public screws on baseball to get Manny signed to his minimum, whatever that may be, by using Manny's status to wail at the "improbability" of him not being signed before P&C. In other words, if manny isn't somewhere by ST, it's gonna get ugly.
But, there's still the slightest possibility Cashman gets creative enough to swoop in under those circumstances. I think a face-saving deal for Manny under duress would be a strong motivator for him this season. And look at it this way; under those circumstances, Manny provides a lot of protection in the lineup and from the press for You-Know-Who...
the latest at mlbtraderumors has the white sox offering abreu 1yr/8 million and dunn sitting on an offer from the nats (i haven't seen terms disclosed) waiting to see if the dodgers move on from manny to him.
[13] It would certainly make sense for them to do so; for what Manny wants they could get Manny-type production two out of four years for less than half what Manny wants. Then the face-saving scenario for Manny and the Yanks becomes a bit more plausible...
[12] You really think ANYBODY thinks the economy will be better in 12 months?
While we got some real talent this year, we 'overpaid' (in relation to the current economy) for what we got, while other teams are enjoying steals. Giambi for $5m? Pat the Bat for $8m? Bobby for $8m? Maybe Dunn for $10m or less?
As good a hitter as Manny is, in terms of $$ per run produced, how can you want Manny? We have around $110m tied up in FIVE players over the next 2 years.
Don't you imagine there will be MANY mid-season dumps? Fire-sales? Do we really need another player who wants more then list price, we 80% of the market is selling at 33% - 50% off?
Anybody remember some years ago when New York City went bankrupt?
This year, we got more, and paid a lot more, then any of us expected. It is now time to bargain hunt. We already have enough high risk dealings. If over the next 14 months, the Sox and other competitors stock up on "$5m Giambi's", we could be in for some bad years.
And all this is assuming that Po is still a catcher, Mo is still Mo, JD's legs wont fall off, and Jeter and Cano have better years.
I'm excited about the talent we got, but I gotta tell ya, when I think of the financially inflexible position we are in, the hairs on my neck stand up a bit.
Me, I would spend what money is left on bubble-wrap for ARod, CC, AJ and Tex... because these guys HAVE to stay healthy.
[15] Well first, it's not totally implausible to "think" the economy will get better next year, otherwise the economy would have already collapsed from the expectations. That said, I don't believe it will get better anytime soon.
Boras is practically taking a public stance that the economy is not bad enough to preclude his demands, and as such will continue to hold out for what he wants for Manny. There is a possibility beyond our realm of firsthand knowledge that Cashman is lurking. Counting on mid-season salary dumps is not a plausible strategy for a successful season/post-season because you're hamstringing your own possibilities from the start.
And what does New York City going bankrupt have to do with the Yankees signing free agents? The Yanks own the Yanks, not the city. It didn't stop them from signing Reggie, Catfish or Goose during some really dark financial years for the city. New York goes bankrupt in the next year or two, does that mean we tell the Yanks to auction off A-Rod, Jeter, CC, Teix, Jorge, Mo and all other valuable assets to balance the budget? With bubble-wrap thrown in for good measure?
And about those bargain-basement signings... you try telling those guys they should sign for less money to ride the bench, (because at this point that's the best place for them in NY) when there are other teams willing to give them a chance to start or compete for a starting spot on their roster? It's not always about what's good for the Yanks. Manny is a possibility; not likely, but not surprising if it happens.
[15] With all the rhetoric flying around, I can see why so many think the world is coming to an end, but the economy will get better and 12-months from now is a very reasonable estimate for when that might occur. Of course, we aren't talking about the general economy, but the Yankees economy. Considering that the story above indicates that the Yankees will likely sell out the season, I think the team will be well positioned to ride out the storm.
Also, you talk about the bargains being had, but they are all on one and two year deals, meaning the same options will be available in short order. I'd much rather be in the Yankees position of being able to wrap up the best talent instead of having to hold out for the best bargains (also, it should be noted that Burnett and Tex were made competitive offers, so for the right talent, there is money out there).
If Cashman wants to bargain hunt for a Dunn, I am fine with that too, but if Manny can fit within the framework after some juggling, he should definitely be in on that too. Also, as [16] mentions, bargain players will demand playing time to increase their value next year. Taking a reserve role on the Yankees is not the way to do that.
LA times: "an insecure stat machine utterly unable to hit when it counts."
Damn, I have issues with Rodriguez but that's pretty strongly-worded, I'd say.
Although ... "Rodriguez," the authors write, "was conspicuous by the awesome disparity between his skills and his ability to use them in the clutch. Rodriguez hit .245 in the postseason as a Yankee, or 61 points worse than his career average. From the fifth inning of Game 4 of the 2004 [American League Championship Series] -- the onset of the dynasty's demise -- through 2008, Rodriguez hit .136 in 59 postseason at-bats."
The other thing that occurs to me in all this is the unwinding of the steroid era, and a reversion to the mean wherein athletes start their decline in their early-mid 30's (call it 34-35), and fall off a cliff a couple years later. For the most part.
It really is a perfect storm. These FAs are hitting the market in the midst of an economic disaster (whether you think it'll be better in 12 months or not). And, GMs seem to have gotten collectively smarter about getting younger and more athletic (especially after the Rays success this year). And, every year that goes by sees further penetration into MLB front offices by advanced-stats afficionados who place different (more rational?) dollar values on guys than did the old guard.
In general, these factors combined don't bode well for long term deals to expensive guys, and that's exactly what we've seen this offseason with some notable exceptions (all of whom signed we us! :D )
Anyone know where to find the following data: number of contracts signed each off season, by length of contract. e.g. 2008-09: 10 year deals (0), 9 year deals (0), 8 year deals (1), etc. etc. Would love to plot this line over time.
[19]
I think Wayne Garland signed the first 10-year deal back in the mid to late 70s ... yeah .... a 10-year deal to a pitcher.
[20] Giddyup! I'm going to go check out his numbers :)