Let’s get right to it . . .
- Joe Sheehan weighs in on the never-ending “Joba to the pen” saga:
Joba Chamberlain is a fantastic starting pitcher. He’s the team’s second-best starter right now, and there’s a chance that he’ll be the best starter by 2010. His SNLVAR of 1.3 is just a fraction behind Andy Pettitte‘s mark of 1.4 for second on the team, a gap that would likely not exist had Chamberlain not been knocked out of his May 21 start against the Orioles by a line drive. Used exclusively as a starter this year, Chamberlain has a 3.71 ERA in 53 1/3 innings. Last night was his fifth quality start in ten, with one of the others being that injury-shortened outing. Durability is an issue, but it’s as much a created one-the Yankees continue to be hypercautious with Chamberlain-as it is a weakness in his game.
In his career, Chamberlain now has a 3.19 ERA in 22 starts, averaging a little more than 5 1/3 innings pitched per. He has 125 strikeouts, more than one per inning, and a K/BB of 2.6. There’s never been a team in MLB history that could afford to move that guy to the bullpen. Even if you were to say that Chamberlain is a six-inning pitcher, something that isn’t clear yet, getting 192 innings of 3.19 ERA ball in a season would make him a top 40 starter in baseball every season, a six-win pitcher in line to make tens of millions of dollars a year.
The conversation on whether to move a starter to the bullpen begins with whether the pitcher can be a successful starter in the majors. Chamberlain has proved that he can prevent runs with the best of them, so that’s not a problem. While he’s suffered nagging injuries on occasion, he hasn’t had the kind of durability problems that, say, Rich Harden has. By pitching standards, Chamberlain has a good health record, and the kind of record that doesn’t warrant a role change.
- Tyler Kepner profiles prospect Austin Jackson:
Through Monday, he was hitting .349, third in the International League, with 11 stolen bases in 11 tries.
A 22-year-old center fielder, Jackson is still developing in his first season at Class AAA. As well as he has played, including a .436 average with runners in scoring position, he has not hit a home run all season. . . .
“There’s nothing about Austin — defense, arm, base running, nothing — that gives me any doubts that he’s going to be a good player one day,” said the Class AAA hitting coach Butch Wynegar. “I just hope nothing happens at the big-league level where they yank him out of here premature. I’d love to see him stay here all year, see what kind of year he has and go from there. Because he’s not there yet.”
- Here’s how a Yankee Triple-A player can make it to the show.
- It’s nearly impossible to get a player’s autograph in the new Stadium:
The Yankees’ gleaming new ballpark opened this spring to mixed reviews, with criticism for sky-high ticket prices, obstructed views and the ease with which batters hit home runs there. But the difficulty in getting autographs at the new stadium has particularly chafed many fans, who routinely add three or more hours to their game outings for the chance at personal interaction with a player.
The situation is little better inside the stadium, where visitors continue to be restricted from the prime autograph areas — near the dugouts — during batting practice, unless they have tickets in those sections. The best of those tickets now go for $1,250, which reflects the Yankees’ recent 50 percent discount. The team had an even more restrictive policy, but eased it last month; fans can now watch batting practice from the field-level box seats in the outfield.
The loss of these traditional access points has fans complaining of the further widening of the already huge gulf between those who make millions playing the game and the fans who support the team with their hearts, time and money.
- No Wang in the rotation:
The waiting game continues for Chien-Ming Wang, who will not take over Andy Pettitte’s rotation spot for Wednesday’s game against the Rangers. Pettitte, who left his previous start in Cleveland with back trouble, reiterated Tuesday that he feels well enough to pitch.
“I’m good,” Pettitte said.
That’s fine news for the Yankees, but it leaves Wang hanging in a precarious spot. After firing three scoreless innings of relief last Sunday, the team’s most successful starter over the past three seasons deemed himself ready to rejoin the starting rotation. But the Yankees remain intent on keeping Phil Hughes in the fifth slot.
Pettitte’s injury had seemed to open a door for Wang — one that quickly slammed shut.
“We had discussions, and at this point, nothing has changed,” Yankees manager Joe Girardi said of Wang. “Our guys are still on schedule. We’re happy with the progress that he’s made, but at this point, we’re staying on schedule.”
- 1,500 runs for the Captain:
When Derek Jeter crossed home plate in the fourth inning on Tuesday night, the Yankees’ captain made history.
Jeter’s run, which was charged to Rangers starter Vicente Padilla, marked the 1,500th run scored of his career. Jeter is just the fourth active player to reach the milestone, joining Seattle’s Ken Griffey Jr., the Mets’ Gary Sheffield and teammate Alex Rodriguez.
- What is this “error” you speak of?:
The Yankees’ record-setting errorless streak ended at 18 games when catcher Jorge Posada threw the ball into center field on Elvis Andrus’ fourth-inning steal of second base in Tuesday night’s game against Texas.
Posada’s error, which allowed Andrus to take third, was the first for New York since shortstop Ramiro Pena misplayed a grounder by the Blue Jays’ Jose Bautista at Toronto on May 13.
New York broke the previous major league mark of 17 games, set by the Boston Red Sox from June 11-30, 2006.
- Jose Molina turns 34 today. Molina has two triples in 1,355 career ABs, and none since 2004 (but he IS 9 out of 13 lifetime in stolen base attempts).
[My take: His bat and legs turn 73 today.]
- On this date in 1932, Lou Gehrig hit four consecutive home runs and narrowly missed a fifth, and Tony Lazzeri hit for the cycle as the Yankees beat the Philadelphia Athletics 20 – 13. The Yankees set a major league record for total bases with 50 and both teams set a still-standing record for extra bases with 41.
- On this date in 2003, Derek Jeter is named the 11th captain in club history.
Is anyone seriously arguing for Joba to the pen permanently? If they are they are in the minority. Most people like me see it as something for this season. Assuming Hughes and Wang are functioning well, what else do you do with the six starters? Joba is the best candidate to go to the pen because he's the best performer out of the pen. It's a compliment, if anything, to suggest he be moved there at some point this season. (Not to mention potentially taking care of the innings limit.)
I need someone to explain something to me, mainly because I suck anytime I use math and formulas.
How did Derek Jeter's slugging percentage jump five points with three singles?
[2] Momentum?
(sorry, I'm following the Bush Doctrine)
Lots of tak about how the bad blood between Teix and Padilla. Funny hting is that Teix only got hit 7 times total while in Texas w/ Padilla and only 1 of those 7 came in a Padilla start. Maybe Teix got thrown at w/o getting hit or got hit later in the series in games pitched by other starters, but it's another one of the observational anecdotes that doesn't stand up (as told) to the game logs.
[2] SLUG is like batting average, only with total bases instead of hits. (The numerator is bases rather than hits; the denominator is at-bats.) If a player got a single every time up, his SLUG would be 1.000. Since Jeter's is in the .400s, it's not surprising that it goes up a few points with three singles (in four at-bats).
Was that the kind of answer you were looking for?
[2][5] Right. Jeter's SLG for yesterday's game (3-4 with three singles) was .750, which thus pulled his season average (about .490) up a few points.
[1] It is quite possible that CC would be the best performer in the pen, but no one would consider removing him from the rotation. In my opinion, your logic is backwards. You don't take the best performer (in the pen) and move him out of the rotation. Rather, you take the worst starter and move him into the pen.
As for what to do with six starters--I would go on a six man rotation, or skip the young guys every so often to keep their innings down. Or simply wait for the inevitable injuries to allow five of them to pitch normally.
[5] Ah. I thought singles started to drag down the SLG, which is why the likes of Ellsbury and Podsednik have such shitty SLG
[7] They generally do, unless you are batting .500 or .600!
A single never drives down the SLG. It is 1 base in 1 time at bat. It is an SLG of 1.000.
Unless you are averaging over 1 base per at bat, but since nobody's ever done that in a more than a handful of at bats, singles always help.
[9] [10] Good explanation.
If a guy hits only singles, his SLG will be low. But that's because a good SLG should be far above a good BA. With singles only, your SLG = your BA.
Some really interesting discussion going on here. Last night's 6 run inning was probably the most I've enjoyed an inning in a very long time, including our 9th inning comebacks. I'd use it as a lesson for youngsters in how small things can loom large in this game. That slide created 6 runs and a win. And I agree with all that the idea of Teixeira as bland is now history.
I share OYF's surprise that the Merloni story has no legs at all. Essentially you need to call the man a flat-out liar (for no evident reason at all) to dismiss it. And though I agree that we may now have gone too far the other way - from denial to the assumption the whole sport was juicing or condoning it - there is something more substantive, for me, about licensed doctors advising on steroids. At the very least the story (and that paragon, Rocker's) put whatever A Rod did (and Palmeiro, and Pudge) in a context.
I remain baffled about the Joba-to-Pen discussion. I guess people have too much free time. I do understand those treating it as a short-term thing to manage the 150 innings, but this requires ignoring the difference between 6+ inning shots and 1 (or 2) innings 2 (or 3) times a week. Chamberlain is a vg starter, and he's there FAST. Leave it be. Enjoy. They'll address the innings come August, I suspect. And they may even put him in the pen, though I'm dubious about the actual utility of that for next year. If we are chasing a WS, they'll do it for this year's results. That's life in the Bronx.
I confess I'm a bit old-school on pitching inside and sometimes hitting guys. Pitchers need to be able to live there and back guys off. Sometimes you get too far inside and hit people. Some guys (Gibson, Drysdale, Pedro) may take some pleasure in it. I don't actually have much memory (long way back) of the actual pitcher being hit in retaliation, even when they batted. It tended to be slugger-for-slugger even then. From what I could see on the 2nd HBP, Salty was saying pretty clearly to Tex as he walked out with him, 'We weren't aiming for you.' and the glove suggests as much. Still, 2 in a row can get the blood pumping! And I love that johnny lays out the facts - you can look it up in this game!
This is long, but I want to raise a query: have we chronically undervalued Matsui? The idea of the bland 'hitter's hitter' and now - clearly - toast, done, stick a fork in him? As with Jeter (overloved, overdissed) maybe Matsui's adulation from Japan creates some kind of 'well, he's okay' elsewhere? This is, for me, some ballplayer. I wonder ... does HoF include, should it include, his stats from Japan?
[6] I agree. 6 man might not be a bad idea. CC will work like a horse, 110+ pitches a game, and given the inve$tment in him, a few fewer innings here and there could be a blessing. Plus wouldn't this mean the starters could go deeper into a game, thus not aggravating my heartburn by seeing Veras all the time.
Six man rotations are awkward - sometimes you even skip your FIFTH man, depending on off-days. It is generally seen that a consistent regimen for established starters is better - though sometimes a tired arm is eased by an extra day or two. Having said that, Yankees are going to have to be creative SOMEHOW. It looks to me as if Wang is still targeted as a reliever for awhile longer. My guess (obviously only that) is that if he comes back in starting, Hughes goes to pen.
I don't think having 5 and 6 days between starts is a good idea. I am sure veterans like C.C., AJ and Andy would likely bristle about being put out of rhythm, while a guy like Wang might be "too strong", which doesn't seem optimal for a sinker ball pitcher.
To me, the only answer is to alternate Hughes and Joba in a bullpen/rotation role with the sole purpose of having both: (1) be available in either role come play-off time; and (2) amass 150+ innings so they'll be in line to become full-time starters in 2010.
I don't think they are going to a six man rotation, nor should they, but if they did, CC would be on his own schedule pitching every five days. AJ doesn't have the standing to object. It wouldn't be conducive to a sinkerballer like Wang either.
More likely than not, Hughes will be moved to the pen, or the mLs, although putting him in the mLs would risk a regression and it would be a waste of his talent. He may be their third best starter.
[16] If Hughes can log 150 innings between the pen and rotation, I don't think it would risk a regression. I also don't think it is fair to call him their third best starter either. In fact, the easier argument to make is that he is, in fact, their 6th best starter (which isn't a knock on Hughes).
[17] No, I meant that if he was sent to the minors.
Hughes has only given up more than 3 ER in two starts, the one against Boston on May 4th and the one last Sunday against Cleveland, although if Gardner hadn't misplayed a flyball to CF, he would have only given up 3 ER.
Pettitte has had 4 starts in which he gave up 4 or more ER.
AJ has had 4 starts in which he gave up 4 or more ER.
CC has had 4 starts in which he gave up 4 or more ER, but his other stats are stellar.
Joba has had 2 starts in which he gave up 4 or more ER.
The thing about the rotation is that this has to be done in a pennant race. On some teams it is a slam-dunk ... you roll out Hughes and Joba till they near their limits, then you shut them down. End of story. But here the team needs to balance next year AND this year, which means - as William says - maximizing their possible value in the fall, if we get there.
[6] My assumption is a six man rotation isn't going to work and probably won't happen. Personally I don't see the logic in upending the schedule for three veterans used to pitching every five days to accommodate two noobs. As for CC in the pen, maybe he would be great but there's no precedent for it since he's been a starter for quite a while now. Chamberlain on the other hand has proven he can be of impact out of the pen.
Hey if a six man rotation is a possibility and works, god bless. I don't think it's going to happen so someone's going to have to make a decision about what to do with these guys.
[1] [20] hughes has a 1.59 era/ 0.529 whip out of the bullpen (07 alds). that's a joke really, but why would we move joba to the pen just because he was good there, when he's also been good as a starter, and is undeniably more valuable there? he came up as a reliever BECAUSE he was such a good starter in the minors- the thinking was that he could break into the majors and fulfill a pressing need at once. now he's already been moved to the rotation, and needs time to develop into what he was always supposed to be. it's one thing if we end up moving him to the bullpen late in the season or postseason when his innings count is too high. but if we move him now, i don't think there's any question that he would take it as a demotion.
[21] You have an extra starter. What do you want to do with him? It doesn't have to be Joba. He's the obvious candidate to me, but if you want to send Hughes down to the minors again, or keep a two time 19 game winner in the bullpen, I'm ready to listen. Hughes to the bullpen? Fine, if you really think that's better than Joba in the pen. I disagree, obviously.
Assuming a six man rotation is out - and I do make that assumption, pretty safely I think - someone has to go somewhere. We won't know if Wang is back to normal unless he gets a few starts, but assuming he is not a walking disaster, he starts. He's got a track record of great success, so he goes in the rotation. Now you are left with Hughes and Chamberlain. Neither should go to the minors - I think everyone agrees on that - so who goes to the bullpen? As starters, I think it's more or less a wash between the two of them. As relievers, Chamberlain is superior. Thus, given the necessity of making the choice, Chamberlain goes in the bullpen.
And I'm not saying it needs to happen right this second, but they're going to have to pull the trigger in a month or so, at the latest.
[15] This makes the most sense - it really seems like the only way to maximize their assets. Figure Hughes to the pen first?
Meanwhile, Mike Francesa remains the assiest asshat that ever assed a hat!
UPDATE: Joe Girardi and Brian Cashman will be at Gate 4 at 4:00 P.M. this after noon to greet fans as they enter into the Great Hall for tonight's game!
Wow!
Maybe they're looking for an eight inning guy to wander in...
: )
[22] "assuming a six man rotation is out" well yeah, but it's also safe to assume that joba will not be going to the bullpen anytime soon. i thought we were giving opinions on what they should do, not what they will do. if someone has to go to the bullpen, i prefer it not to be the 2nd best starter. you may think they're a "wash" between joba and hughes in the rotation, but the numbers don't support that, nor the fact that joba has at least 3 good pitches while hughes really only has 2.
[25] I'm giving my opinion on what they should do within the parameters of what I think they will do. As much as they may not want to put Joba in the pen, I think it's more likely than going to a six man rotation. I'm assuming that's out because it seems highly unlikely.
As far as it being a wash, they are both young, inconsistent, and a strain on the bullpen. Both have shown flashes of brilliance, neither are dependable. I think the Yanks are better off with one new project at a time. Like william said, they can swap them out, whatever.
This is simple math, really. They have too many quality starters and not enough quality relievers and they have a couple guys with innings limits that need to continue to see ML hitting.
[26] you're right, they're not going to a 6 man rotation.
of course, they're not going to put Joba in the pen anytime soon, either.
from Petey:
UPDATE, 4:30 p.m.: Wang starts tomorrow. More to come later. Hughes to bullpen.
UPDATE, 4:49 p.m.: Hughes is a temporary bullpen fix, Cashman said. He’ll be a starter long term.
[27] Ah-ha! Anytime soon, eh???
[28] yes, soon as in not before he hits innings limit, which quite possibly might not happen, since there are ways to spread out his starts to avoid pushing the limit past its breaking point.
In any case, when and if that time comes, he'll be in the bullpen, not because he's the "superior" reliever, but rather because of the long term priority of keeping him healthy, as a starter.
Other than that, your analysis was spot on.