It was a tight game tonight, and A.J. Burnett was a bit nervous-making. Wild pitches left and right (and then left again), seven hits in 6.1 innings, four walks and just two strikeouts. But Burnett was stubborn, too, and he controlled the damage: the Yankees won, 4-2. At a few points he was stalking around the mound and muttering to himself; “I got upset a couple times, but just tried to stay within myself and make the next pitch,” he said after the game. Ah, that’s a golden oldie, stay within himself. Joe Torre used that one all the time, and while I don’t think it actually means anything (staying within yourself is just what you do while you’re taking it one day at a time and giving 110 or even 120%), it invokes fond memories.
In the postgame scrum, a reporter asked Burnett how he settled himself during games. “Anything that can calm me down,” he said. “I’m joking out there with myself, I mean if y’all could read my mind out there y’all would crack up.” Am I the only one imagining Nuke LaLoosh’s inner monologue from Bull Durham right now? Anyway, as I’ve seen a number of Yankees fans say this season, Burnett’s been a lot more likable than I expected. He always used to annoy me. Partly it was his squinty, short-tempered demeanor on the mound – like with my old favorite Paul O’Neill and his temper tantrums, that stuff’s a lot less charming when the player in question isn’t on your team. Plus there were some very questionable hair choices over the years. But hey, so far this season, he’s been downright endearing.
Anyway, Burnett’s outing (dare I call it “gritty”?) and another pretty solid night for the Yankee bullpen – including a 1.1-inning save courtesy of Mo – were enough, barely, to back up the Yankees’ four runs. Anthony Swarzak started for Minnesota tonight, and the Yankees got to him early, scoring three runs in the second on a RBI groundout from Nick Swisher and a two-run Brett Gardner single. Swarzak, who sounds like a creature from Land of the Lost, made a good recovery but his pitch count puffed up fast. He was out of the game in the fifth, though not before giving up what turned out to be the game-winning run – which came when Alex Rodriguez knocked in Derek Jeter. (Ain’t that the way it’s supposed to be?).
I’ve always liked the Twins, and now that they have a player named Span, of course I have to pull for them even more. My guy Denard has a very fine .377 OBP, though admittedly he is not exactly slugging up a storm. And I think it will take a few more series before I stop doing a double-take every time Ken Singleton says “Span is smelling like a rose” (thanks Kenny!) or David Cone remarks that “Span’s just caught flat-footed”.
The Yanks have won 12 of their last 14. Excelsior.
I'd forgotten how fast your brother is, Emma.
"Yankees won, 4-2"
Yes, for large values of 2.
Fangraphs, which is often interesting has an astonishing piece on Halladay's value. Cutting to the chase, they say he's worth about 52 million through the end of his CURRENT contract! They base it on win shares, he's worth about 6.5 wins a year and the going rate is 5 million a win. They also note that whichever team signs him for those 18 months will get the two free agents when he leaves, and those are (allegedly) worth 8 million So Halladay is worth 60 million minus the 22 million he's being paid or 38 million in trade value.
Fangraphs thinks Jays should hold out for that, and that they'll get it. Toronto papers suggest he can't go to NY or Boston or Jay morale gets hammered. Also they note Halladay dislikes batting ... so though he'd destroy the NL, anywhere, he may be an AL dude. I can really see the Angels gunning for him, using one of their shortstops (Aybar or Woods) as a key piece. Jays need a ss after this year.
Oh, and fangraphs also has a remarkable stat/piece on Gardner ... suggesting his OF arm may just be insanely good. It doesn't LOOK that way, teams may be testing him too much ... but have a look at both pieces:
http://www.fangraphs.com/
Burnett was lucky/gritty last night, yup. Lucky it was the Twinkies.
[2] Horace--
Still pushing Halladay, I see. : ) Seriously, though, good article on Halladay's value. Forget the money; the key statement in my opinion is:
From a Yankees perspective, is one and a half seasons of Halladay worth Hughes + Joba + AJax?
Yo, monkey, actually not pushing him at all - as I mentioned, odds are hugely against Jays dealing him in AL East. I just find it the most interesting, game-changing story right now. Depending where he goes, it impacts the Yanks, and it hugely impacts the race he lands in.
Hughes + Joba + Ajax? No way by me. Hughes + Pena (they need a ss) plus 2 decent-to-promising bodies? Maybe, but it won't happen.
Meanwhile, skimming down the articles on Fangraphs, there is a touching entry about Joe Torre batting Matt Kemp in the 8th spot in the line-up. It's good to be reminded every so often...
[4] I was just joshing with you. Last during the Jays broadcast, the announcers mentioned that Halladay presented Ricciardi with a list of teams that he would refuse a trade to. This time around, I think, the trade buzz is serious.
Hughes + Pena. Yeah, I would probably make that deal, since Hughes is (in my estimation) a season and a half away from being a full time starter, thanks to the current plan to limit him to seven pitches per appearance. That and Pena is really not a ML SS, when you consider his bat and glove combined. If The Jays coveted Pena because the need a SS next year, I would laugh all the way to the bank.
Despite Fangraph's conclusion, I really doubt that the Jays land so many big time prospects, unless the trading team can reach a contract extension with Halladay. I really don't see the Yankees or Red Sox in the mix, but that is more of a gut reaction.
Oh, and one more dig at the way Hughes is being employed this season. Because they brought him up in 2007 (everyone remembers, when he started 13 game and did not once pitch as the eighth inning guy), doesn't that mean that he becomes a free agent in a couple of years? 2012 maybe?
So, by my estimation, they blow up this year teaching him how to be confident or whatever, three pitches at a time, then spend half of next year Jobatizing him back into the starting rotation, and then finally use him as a full time starter in 2011. If I have calculated and predicted correctly, going forward the organization may have set itself up for a real nice season or two of Phil-Hughes-Full-Time-Starter before he goes somewhere else or stays at a higher price tag.
Fangraphs also says: "The market value for wins took a tumble on the low end last year, but at the high end, teams were still willing to pay around $5 million per win for premium free agents."
When competing for Halliday's services, I don't think the above statement can be brushed aside as a minor factor. Abreu got $5m. In this economy, very few teams will overspend on a player. So while $23m for 1.5 years is a steal, you have to consider the $$$ value of a Hughes/Ajax/Pena type of trade.
Like the Santana deal, as tempting as it might be, trading top prospects is not going to help the Yankees in the long run, or trim payroll, of help us get younger.
[7] If Hughes is the real deal, he wont be going anywhere. Also, a cynic might argue that the Yankees are purposely holding him back so he wont be able to make a big day in arbitration next year. Because arbitration raises are usually based on the prior year's salary, that will artificially deflate his salary of the next two eligible years, which will give Hughes greater incentive to sign a long-term deal more favorable to the Yankees :)
Little observation from last night:
Boston up 5-3 in the ninth...Papelbon puts runners on 1st and 3rd before giving up a sac fly held up by the wind in the deepest part of the park. He then gave up another hit before earning the 5-4 save. Papelbon pumps his glove and gestures wildly.
Mets up 5-3 in the ninth...Krod gives up HR to Manny, follwed by a walk and a hit before getting a DP to record a5-4 save. Krod pumps his glove and gestures wildly.
Yankees up 4-3 in the ninth...Mo gets a ground up, K and then soft liner from the games best hitter to record a 4-3 save. Mariano shakes his teammates hands and walks off the field.
That is why Mariano is Mariano.
Yes but those guys wouldn't be who they are without the glove pumping and wild gestures. To each their own.
[9] That would be a bit devious on the Yanks part, but also quite possible.
Re: Hughes, I think that Girardi is, as he was with A-Rod, faced with the choice between "what is in the team's best long-term interests" and "how do I keep winning tons of games". As should surprise no one, he's leaning towards the winning now goal by keeping Hughes in this ridiculous short-reliever role.
If Girardi is determined to use Hughes as "the bridge" to Mo, I don't see why Hughes couldn't be a two or even three inning bridge to Mo, as Mo himself was to Wetteland so long ago. I really hope Girardi starts letting the kid pitch multiple innings at a time.
Why can't you at least get the score right, it was 4-3, not 4-2. Did you go to sleep early, or is it just ladies are not that into sports thing?
Let's make that deal for Roy Halliday. Give them Posada, Damon, Swisher, Ian Kennedy, and any other garbage we have laying around.
This is the kind of Burnett start that earlier in the season would result in 4 or 5 runs for the opposition. His last few starts have been so dominant, it actually seems like this is part of that trend - an "off" day for him is now a very good start.
Team's winning. I'd love to see them take two of three from the Angels before the break.
Speaking of Fangraphs, look at this assessment of Brett Gardner as an elite defensive player.
Oddly, the data suggest that Gardner has the best outfield arm in MLB. We know this isn't true, so it's an interesting question why he has so many more ARM outs than expected. One hypothesis offered by some commenters at the Fangraphs blog is that the scouting report on Gardner says his arm is terrible, and it's not, so he's tested a lot and gets his man. This honestly doesn't square with my memory, though.
Other thoughts?
Oh, I should add that Brett also has excellent range, according to the analysis. That's not so surprising.
[15] I think it is speed most likely. Getting to the ball quicker is important. Also, I do think he is excellent at positioning himself to make the throw, Much better than melky for sure.
[15] I saw that as well. I truly don't remember Gardner making a single outfield assist, but then again, I don't have access to many games on TV. The suggestion that he runs down lots of balls (even hits) in the gap, thus effectively taking away bases with speed, makes intuitive sense.
[12] Kind of a weird question since she's writing for a sports blog. I'd say that's a dead giveaway she's into sports.
[15] Don't trust your memory?
=)
The commenters' theory makes sense to me. Remember how much weight reputation carries with defense. I'm pretty sure no one still runs on Ichiro! just because of that one play he made in early April 2001, throwing our old friend T-ball long out at 3B from deep RF in Oakland.
Brett Gardner is not a very good outfielder. He'll get better but that just shows you the folly of stat sticklin'.
[11] I entirely agree regarding Hughes. I don't really mind a manager playing for wins today--that's his job. I do mind, however, that the organization does not *seem* to have a plan in place for him as they did with Joba. Plus, even if the goal is to win today and tomorrow be damned, I'm not convinced using the kid for 8 and 13 pitches at a time is the best way to achieve even the short-term goal.
Whatever. I 'll stop beating this dead horse soon enough. Resistance is futile.
[15] well a few things - first of course sss; also, this data includes 2008, and i remeber the banter consensus was last year his arm was better than we all thought (i'll try to find time to look up some other numbers to support if i have time later) - so much of this could be predicated on last year's numbers; also, his speed in tracking balls down is surely helpful.
markakais on the list *seems* to make sense. it is somewhat useful for these defensive metrics to have some confirmation between what you think you are seeing and what the numbers are saying.
[10] Mo = class.
not exactly trotting out the a lineup for aceves. cody on that ground-up rubber turf might get interesting.
Jeter SS,
Swisher RF
Teixeira 1B
Rodriguez DH
Posada C
Cano 2B
Cabrera LF
Ransom 3B
Gardner CF
I don't support a trade for Halladay but if it were to happen I'd rather part with Chamberlain than Hughes at this point.
[20] The same thing happened with Pettitte. He picked off tons of runners early in his career, but that number has declined since then. His move isn't any worse, but people has simply stopped taking as many big leads.
As I recall, this made its way into our discussions of Posada v. Molina last year. Molina's fine CS rate still did not compensate for Po's poor rate + much better bat, or so I argued at the time (and I stand by that). The problem is that we don't know how much of deterrent Molina is--it is difficult to calculate "would of tried to steal" attempts.
Defense really is the last great frontier for baseball stats. I wonder if there will ever be truly trustworthy defensive stats for individual players, given that it is the one aspect of baseball most affected by team play (if that makes any sense).
Does anyone want to help me start a Halladay-to-NL petition? I think we could really get a grassroots movement going here.
[23] Don't trust your eyes, ms october!
And if you don't believe me, check this out.
I think the biggest problem defensive metrics are going to have in terms of gaining mainstream acceptance is that they will frequently tell us what we see (or think we see) is wrong - and that's a very hard thing for people to accept.
[22] We can hope, and that's about it. I'm with you all the way, monkeypants. Is it wrong of me to hope for a minor Pettitte injury that forces them to stretch Hughes out?
If the Yanks don't win two of three from the Angels, the season is effectively over. Fire Girardi.
...
I drank too much coffee.
[25] probably want to limit a-rod on the turf. and sitting Damon doesn't seem like a bad idea. Not sure what is up with him in left lately. But maybe playing in the dome is a bad idea for Damon right now. Vision problems?
[29] [23] OK, I screwed up the html tags. I think its working now.
[23] Small sample size is indeed something to be wary of esp. with defensive statistics. But stat geeks usually say that 1000 innings is enough, and Brett has 750 or so, which means the projection shouldn't be wildly off.
In any case, pleading small sample size here kind of misses the point. If he had a great bunch of games throwing out runners, but it was a small sample, then we could wisely say that he couldn't be expected to keep it up. But what's happening is that the metric tells us that in that small sample he's had an incredibly good arm, and anyone watching him would disagree. That cannot be explained by the size of the sample.
I like the suggestion that it has a lot to do with cutting off balls in the gap, thus depriving hitters of extra bases.
[28] The key for this effort would be to get Halladay himself to sign the petition, since he has a full no-trade clause!
[28] [34] Sadly, I hear he doesn't like to bat so he's not thrilled about going to the NL.
[25] Regarding the lineup, at least Girardi is not subscribing to the obligatory day-game-after-night-game rule for starting the back-up catcher. The lineup is weaker today, but crippled.
[11] "Re: Hughes, I think that Girardi is, as he was with A-Rod, faced with the choice between “what is in the team’s best long-term interests” and “how do I keep winning tons of games”. As should surprise no one, he’s leaning towards the winning now goal by keeping Hughes in this ridiculous short-reliever role."
Shaun - I have to ask... Are these Girardi's decisions or Cashman's/the FO's?
Girardi runs things on the field, but I would think 'overall strategy' comes from above. I can't see Cashman letting Girardi handle Hughes (or any other important issues) in a way that is counter to the 'overall plan'. Do we give Girardi too much 'credit' for these decisions?
[15] If you read all the comments (and I have one there), it's pretty much covered. The (commenting) Yankee fans have assessed Gritner accurately. Bottom line: Average arm.
The Yankees season is not over if they don't win 2 out of 3 in LA, and Girardi's job is not in danger because of that series either, that's bull. The Yanks have 11 games left against the Red Sox, those are the telling series for a make or break season. Besides, if they only take 1 game in LA, that's 5 out of 7 for the current road trip, who in the Yankees front office would not be happy with that.