It’s hard to write about Joba Chamberlain these days without sounding like a disappointed parent – “oh honey, you have so much potential, if you could just apply yourself…!” Today’s start was not pretty, not progress, and not encouraging – 3 innings, 6 hits, 7 earned runs, 3 walks, yipes – and when the dust settled the Yankees lost 7-1. Chamberlain wasn’t really any better than that line would suggest, and yet, per Peter Abraham and his post-game audio, he remains remarkably tone-deaf when talking to the media. “My delivery was great,” he says. Oh was it now?
Sergio Mitre relieved Joba and threw five innings of scoreless one-hit ball, with five Ks and just one walk, so I guess his delivery must have been super-ultra-great. Meanwhile, the Yankee hitters couldn’t get anything going against an impressive Ian Snell or a potpourri of Seattle relievers, save for a brief flash of life in the sixth which was quickly snuffed out.
I was going to write something along the lines of, “I can’t believe the Yankees have a five-game division lead on September 20th, with a virtual lock on a playoff spot, and some fans are panicking!” But, come on – of course I can believe it. That said, for those of you so inclined, now would probably be a good time to start making voodoo sacrifices to ensure Andy Pettitte’s quick and full recovery.
tone deaf.
metronome disasters.
i think i'm reading the wrong site; i feel my musicianship slipping as much as our rank in the playoff standings! ; )
Mitre: i think he got lucky on his delivery.
Four in the loss column.
I'm not panicking about the Yanks' chances of making the post-season.
Their chances after they get there? That's another story. Especially if Joba's starting.
[2] i'm not pleased about this. i'm definitely worried and expecting a very stressful week.
[3] i'm worried about the postseason, as well.
if it ends up being a Bos-NY ALCS, i'm gonna be a massive stressball...
I suspect that Joba's problem is at least partly physical.
Other than that, I'm not worried at all.
[3] It's good that you're not worried about their chances of making the postseason seeing as technically they've already clinched a berth.
[7] really? i was under the impression we needed a win tonight in anaheim or a texas loss in oakland to secure the WC....
Just checked the game thread, I see the usual suspects are still beating the same drum...
Z0MG T3H YANK33ZZZZZ r DOO000000000M3D!!!!!!!!!11!!!!!!!1!1
Nice park, that Safeco. M's fans are still a bit bitter about the existence of the Yankees, as well as ARod leaving. Came across a couple of annoying Yankees fan, and an annoying Sox fan, though I'm willing to chalk that up to a defensive mechanism response to the Yanks fan.
Anyway, Seattle's a beautiful city, I wouldn't want to live there tho. Glad to be back in NY.
[8] Love Seattle, though I would prefer Portland to live in (only problem is the 3 hour time difference with most Yankee starts.)
[4] I am more stressed about an NY-LAA showdown. Though any ALCS involving the Yankees is good, because it means they won their ALDS. Which is always good.
As for Joba. Well. Hmmm. Let's see. Ah. Um.
He's still young, let's not forget that. Plus, I think, in limiting his innings I think the Yankees have actually hurt him, developmentally. Yes, you don't want to abuse a young arm, but by limiting him 3-4 innings the last few games it sort of does change his focus in the game plus at least subconsciously tells him to ease off. Might it better be to have Joba or any other youngster just go all out and when they hit the limit tell them to go home? Yes it does mean needing a different arm for October, but at this point the Yankees need that anyway.
And hey, the Giants pulled it out in Dallas, spoiling JerryJonesLand's debut.
Tee hee!
Could somebody please post, or fax me page 26-29 of the Joba Map? I turned on the game in (I think it was) the 5th inning, and upon discovering it wasn't Mitre who had coughed up the 7 runs, I spilled a considerable amount of blood (or was that salsa?) on my Joba Map rendering it unreadable. I can't wait to see where it leads us from here.
Joba's comments were a disgrace, but not out of line with his attitude all season. Obviously, Girardi hasn't addressed the issue, so there is no reason to think he will do it now. The whole Joba fiasco has become a major embarrassment.
I'm sorry, but anyone who thinks that the road to the World Series wont be much easier with homefield throughout isn't paying attention. If the Yankees continue to sputter, they will wind up with a better ALDS opponent, the loss of home field AND have to play the series requring 4 starters. With the way Joba has pitched, the last one is probably the most damning.
There is every reason to be worried about this team undergoing a late season collapse, unless of course you don't really care how they do in the post season (or see no inherent value in the accomplishment of winning a division, which I do).
[11]re: Joba's comments: I'm no shrink, but I know everybody handles failure differently. Joba's a kid, and seems to be immature. Plus, he's lost. Put yourself in his shoes. He's gone from being the toast of the town to toast. In his postgame comments he's just falling back on his confidence. Being defensive is a reflexive reaction, especially for a young guy like him. Also, falling back on his confidence is what pitchers are trained to do. Believe me, he's not in denial about his failure. It's apparent to all.
Girardi? Of course he's addressed the issue. Do you really think he's going to ignore Joba's struggles? Clearly, whatever Joe has said hasn't worked, but you really can't think Joe is looking the other way when Joba struggles.
[9] The Yankees definitely screwd up the Joba situation. The road map I had argued for was to have he and Hughes reverse roles at some point late in the season, which would have left both on target to be effective contributors in the post season. As much as I hate to say it, the approach the Red Sox took with Buccholz was the right one. Now, they have him poised to be an excellent 3rd or 4th starter, while the Yankees have Hughes giving them one (usually low leverage with the way Girardi uses him) inning and Joba giving them no chance.
[12] you've been suggesting that the Yanks are playing complacent baseball, and that Girardi has somehow sparked or enabled that complacency. But Girardi has talked about "not letting up on the throttle" for fear of not being able to "fire up the engines" again. Those are almost his exact words. Do you think you want the Yankees to win the division, and homefield advantage more than he, or anyone on the team does?
Girardi doesn't have all the answers, and neither do we. The way I see it, neither this team, nor their manager need a fire lit underneath them, they just need to get back to hitting, and pitching well. The wins come only when that happens.
[13] He isn't really a kid. He'll be 24 in a few days and has now been on a big leadue roster for three years. Throughout the year, he has failed repeatedly and offered up excuses most of the time. He has also stated that he doesn't watch film and doesn't dwell on his past starts. That the Yankees have allowed him to get by with such an attitude is amazing. If he can't face his failure and wont work to correct it, then we will keep getting the same Joba slop next year too. Clearly, the Yankees have jerked him around, but he hasn't exactly distinguished himself either.
As for Girardi's role, no, I do not think he has addressed the issue because Joba makes the same mistakes each outing and then offers up the same excuses. Joba needs a serious kick and the pants, but Girardi has proven that is something he isn't willing to do. Just look at how long it took him to bench Cano last year. Who knows...had there been an earlier intervention, he might not have stuggled for so long.
[12] Home field advantage may not matter at all. If the first series is over in four games, for instance, and the second in six, then the home field advantage turns out to be completely irrelevant.
More likely it will matter in one of the two series, and it will amount to one game of home field. That's not nothing, or insignificant, but it's dwarfed by such considerations as (i) will Joba Chamberlain be a good pitcher? (ii) will AJ Burnett meltdown? (iii) will Posada be rested and healthy? And other things like that.
Having to play the series requiring four starters is not in itself a disadvantage. Again, it depends on whether Chamberlain can be a better fourth starter than whoever the Yankees face. If he's pitching like he pitched yesterday, then it's clearly better to skip him and get the longer series; if he pitches in October at abut his 2009 average, then it's better for the Yankees to have the shorter, 4-pitcher series against (say) the Angels.
[15] Girardi has "talked" about not letting up, but his actions have suggested otherwise. He has managed the last 10+ games as if it was a tuneup for the post season. As a result, the Yankees have not only lost a few extra games, but also seem to have lost an edge. What Girardi says is really irrelevant because it has nothing to do with what he has done. He may want to re-ignite the engines now, but that might not be so easy. For all our sake, I hope it's not too late.
[17] First off, that's not true at all. Homefield isn't just about a deciding game. It's also about starting off a series well and not having to travel as much. Secondly, it might not come into play on a elimination game, but then again, it very well could. I'd prefer that the Yankees prepare for every possibility than hope they don't have to deal with any negative consequences.
Furthermore, the "will Joba be a good pitcher" consideration is tied very closely to homefield because if the Yankees don't get the best record, Mr. Chamberlain will be pitching game 4 of the ALDS. With the way he has pitched lately, and the ridiculous way he has been handled, it would be naive to expect him to be better than a Kazmir, Buccholz or even Porcello.
I’m sorry, but anyone who thinks that the road to the World Series wont be much easier with homefield throughout isn’t paying attention.
We have playoff data from 1995 on. Prove that homefield advantage throughout matters. Feel free to show your work.
[20] What does "data"about other teams from other seasons have to do with the Yankees? Have you seen the Yankees play in Anaheim over the past 10 years? Have you seen the Red Sox play in Fenway over the past century? That the Marlins could win in Atlanta and Chicago means nothing.
It’s also about starting off a series well and not having to travel as much.
Starting a series off well isn't more important than doing well in the middle or the end, so that's just nonsense. I might be missing something about travel. In a six game series, does one of the teams travel more than the other?
Secondly, it might not come into play on a elimination game, but then again, it very well could.
Huh?
Every single series is going to be decided in an "elimination game", I confidently predict. What does that have to do with home field advantage?
Furthermore, the “will Joba be a good pitcher” consideration is tied very closely to homefield because if the Yankees don’t get the best record, Mr. Chamberlain will be pitching game 4 of the ALDS.
Oh, have the Red Sox already decided that they will take the longer series if they get the chance? I missed that. Could you point me to the quote from Francona or Epstein?
In the AL since 1995, the team with homefield has won 25 of 41 series and 6 (of 14) teams with the best record have gone onto the World Series.
[22] You think getting off to a 2-0 start versus an 0-2 start has no bearing on the future games? Are you serious? That's beyond nonsense.
On the travel issue, if the Yankees are the WC, they will get a grueling flight from TB to LA. Then, if they win after a LA-NY-LA jaunt, they'll get to fly back across country to Fenway. That would 4 cross country flights in a week.
By elimination game, I meant a double elimination game (game 5 or 7). I though that inference was clear.
On the 4th starter issue, don't you think it makes sense for the Yankees control their own fate then hope the Red Sox or Angels opt to go with the 4 game series?
It seems like your attitude is to just coast into the post season and hope all the chips fall into place. My approach would be to leave as little to chance as possible and go after every possible advantage.
[21] I agree with you about the importance of homefield advantage,(and suspect Girardi and many of his players do too) but I completely disagree that the inconsistence we've seen the last 10 games (10 runs one game, 1 run the next/ good Joba one game, hideous Joba the next) are due to complacency, or mismanagment on Girardi's part. I'm not saying he always has the answer, or always makes the right moves. I just don't see him as the strategic fool and overall liabilty that you do.
My biggest frustration (if you can call it that) has been the underuse, and probably misuse of Hughes -- but I suspect Girardi is not handling Hughes by himself. Cashman and others in the organization are involved, and may have sound reasons for Hughes' treatment.
re: Joba's expressed indifference to watching game film. He's immature. He seems like the kind of kid who has to be force fed his vegetables at the Yankee dinner table. Believe me, if he's not doing it himself, he's being forced to analyze his performances, and make adjustments. Nothing has helped him find consistency yet. And in the end, maybe he's best suited to be a relief pitcher. Time will tell.
[21] What does “data”about other teams from other seasons have to do with the Yankees? Have you seen the Yankees play in Anaheim over the past 10 years? Have you seen the Red Sox play in Fenway over the past century?
If other teams from other seasons are irrelevant as "data," then I suggest how the Red Sox played in Fenway Park several decades ago is, too, irrelevant.
I'm not even convinced that how the Yankees played in Anaheim ten years is particularly relevant, if we want to push this exercise.
[26] Blasted missed tag.
Joba is an idiot.
You think getting off to a 2-0 start versus an 0-2 start has no bearing on the future games? Are you serious? That’s beyond nonsense.
Does winning games 3 and 4 have no bearing on future games? I think all games are equal in the post-season.
On the travel issue, if the Yankees are the WC, they will get a grueling flight from TB to LA.
They will? That surprises me, I would have thought they'd go home first. But okay, if they fly straight to LA, they'll then have two or three days in LA before they play.
Then, if they win after a LA-NY-LA jaunt, they’ll get to fly back across country to Fenway. That would 4 cross country flights in a week.
That would be that especially long "week" that runs from October 5th to the 16th, right?
Note that if they play LA in the ALCS, the schedule is equally "grueling".
By elimination game, I meant a double elimination game (game 5 or 7). I though that inference was clear.
It wasn't, but is now.
So, yes, they may or may not play one of those. If they do, then home field advantage matters; if they don't it's irrelevant. This is what I said originally.
On the 4th starter issue, don’t you think it makes sense for the Yankees control their own fate then hope the Red Sox or Angels opt to go with the 4 game series?
It could help. But I thought you said that if the Yankees don't get the best record, Joba will pitch the fourth game of the first round. I was pointing out that that's pure speculation.
It seems like your attitude is to just coast into the post season and hope all the chips fall into place.
To the contrary. I regard the current stretch of the regular season as having one purpose only: to get the team in as good shape as possible for the post-season. Home field advantage would indeed be an advantage, but it's only one consideration and (as I said) it's dwarfed by the others.
[26] [27] Well, you are a very emphatic person.
Oh, hey, are you Italian?
[26] The reason Boston's long-term success at Fenway is relevant is because it suggests the team has regularly been successful in constructing their team to take advantage of the ballpark. The Angels long-term success against the Yankees is relevant because I believe it has become a psychological advantage. Now, you may dismiss the psychological impact, but judging by his quotes in the News of the Day, Girardi does not. Therefore, he should place a high level of importance on securing the homefield (with actions, not words).
Grueling travel? Are they going cross country by bus?
[29] - You really think all games are equal? So, for example, going down 0-3 isn't much of an obstacle because many teams have won a 7-game series 4 games to 3, and it doesn't matter which 4 you win?
- Even if they fly to NY, that still means they have a cross country flight instead of staying put.
- If they play Anaheim in the ALCS, they wont have the same grueling schedule because it would be NY-LA-NY as opposed to NY-LA-NY-LA-NY (if they make it the world series). No matter how you script it, the travel is more ardous if they lose home field.
- Of course I am speculating, but if the Yankees win the homefield they eliminate the need to worry about a game 5/7 on the road and Joba starting game 4. The reason you win homefield is so you don't find yourself in those unfortunate circumstances.
- What other consideration, which requires that you not play your best team, dwarfs homefield?
[32] That's right. Six hour flights are like a vacation and jet lag is kind of cool.
That’s right. Six hour flights are like a vacation and jet lag is kind of cool.
Yes, yes they are.
I got in at 6 this morning from Seattle and am currently posting from work (much to the chagrin of my employers... lol). I'm sure if I can fly cross country on an Airbus A320 and make it to work and function with no problem, I'm fairly confident that a MLB player, staying in the best hotels, flying in the best planes, who has nothing to worry about other than playing a game, and have done the west coast cross country jaunts more times than I care to admit can do it.
Puh-leeze
[35] If only performing athletically was as easy as sitting behind a desk…
[36] They're trained professionals. I'm sure they're capable. They are catered everywhere they go. They have nothing to do other than worry about that day/night's game.
I would hope that after all these years in the league that these players know what to do to combat the effects of jet lag.
You really think all games are equal?
Yes.
So, for example, going down 0-3 isn’t much of an obstacle because many teams have won a 7-game series 4 games to 3, and it doesn’t matter which 4 you win?
Pick any three games, in advance, identifying them in some neutral way. It's a very big disadvantage to lose those three games. It doesn't matter which three games you pick!
E.g., suppose for some reason you knew a given team would lose all of their (first) three away games; that would be the same huge problem that losing their first three (home and away) games would be. This is because all the games count the same.
Travel: Okay, I see your point: under some circumstances they might have to add one round trip to their travel plans.
What other consideration, which requires that you not play your best team, dwarfs homefield?
Whether starting pitchers are rested; whether Posada is rested and healthy. I'd add Jeter and A-Rod and Damon, but those are less significant.
[37] Keep in mind, too, that (a) these guys are well-accustomed to traveling with the team, and (b) the flight they take to LA does not resemble the flight you or I take (it's First Class +++).
[37] Yes...they are trained to hit curve balls and fastballs and field to the backhand, but I don't think they cover dealing with long flights and jet lag. Not matter how much they get paid and pampered, their bodies are still human. We don't have robots just yet.
[39] If you really think losing going down 0-3 has no impact on a teams chances over the next four, I really don't know what to say. If only teams could pick in advance the games they lose in some neutral way, but alas, that's not the case. These series are not played in a vacuum, but I guess we will never agree on the human element that must be factored into the equation.
- None of your concerns seem to prohibit trying to win mid-September games. If anything, too much rest could put the pitchers out of rhythm for the post season.
[39] If you really think losing going down 0-3 has no impact on a teams chances over the next four,
???
It's completely obvious that I didn't say that.
And it's completely obvious that I didn't in any way intimate that teams can pick which teams they'll lose in advance. The only way you could possibly think I said that is if you had decided in advance not to read what I actually wrote.
I'll try one more time.
Losing games has a negative impact on a team's ability to win a series. This is painfully obvious. What I'm saying is that each game lost has the same impact on the team's ability to win the series as each other game lost. It's completely irrelevant whether the games lost come at the beginning or the end or the middle of the series.
If I wanted to play a stupid game, I would point out that many teams have won a series after losing the first two, but no team has ever won a series after losing the last two. But this is, obviously, a kind of play on words. It doesn't detract from the plain fact that each game is equally important.
If you think extra rest for pitchers makes them worse in the post-season, then that's just a plain disagreement over the facts of the matter. I'm willing to be convinced. What's the evidence?
Not matter how much they get paid and pampered, their bodies are still human.
Yes, and humans adapt and adjust. Which is what players have been doing, since MLB started playing on the west coast waaaaaaay back in 1957.
Do you honestly think that a player, if feeling jet-lagged won't take a nap before a game? Or will spend a day resting before reporting to the ballpark? Or if a player is a night owl in NYC, that they're used to keeping late hours?
You don't think that in the course of a career, someone will tell or has told a ballplayer, "listen, because of jet-lag, the west coast swing can be a bear, this is what you need to do to prepare."
doh! 1958
[42] I've read what you wrote several times and quite frankly have no idea what you mean. What it seems to boil down to is you think that losing games early in the series has no "human impact", and I think it does. Players and managers do react differently to the pressure of being in a hole.
What's your evidence that skipping a start in September increases post season peformance? I'd rather have my starters take a regular turn than go 8, 9 or 10 days without pitching.
[43] Jet lag can sneak up on you...at least that's what sometimes happens to me. Also, when you have the adrenaline of playing in a big series, it might be kind of hard to just take a nap. All the best advice in the world doesn't remove the impact.
I’ve read what you wrote several times and quite frankly have no idea what you mean
Ah.
It's that each game counts equally; that there is no more advantage to winning game one than to winning (say) game three. If you don't know what that means, then I guess we'll have to leave it at that, since I can't think of any way to make it clearer.
What’s your evidence that skipping a start in September increases post season peformance?
Only that it's frequently done when a team has a comfortable lead. It makes sense to me: Sabathia, for instance, seems to have been a bit worn out in the post-season in years past. But maybe it's not true. As I said, I'm willing to be convinced otherwise.
[46] Using that logic, then winning games one, two and three would provide no advantage over four, five and six, which seems to imply that there is no adverse impact from going down 0-3 in a series.
If I recall correctly, Sabathia was "overused" down the stretch the last two post seasons. Besides, if you look at C.C.'s career, his OPS against for 4 days rest, 5 days rest and 6+ days rest is .684, .688 and .700, respectively (his best work is on 3-days rest, but the sample was small).
My guess at this point is "Joba" will at some point be used as a verb with a negative connotation.
With each mediocre or shitty start - actually, remember those halcyon days when he could be depended on for five innings of four run work? - the amount of attention Chamberlain receives in the press, on the internet, etc seems more and more out of proportion with what he's shown us.
Let's face it, his "flashes of brilliance" have been few this season, to the extent that I don't really see a pattern that you can hang anything positive on. He was at his most consistently great when he first came up. It's been more or less downhill since then.
I think it's time for everyone to let go of the Joba Dream. I'll see it as a nice surprise if he ends up being dominant in any way, at any time, because I see little to suggest he has it in him.
[46] Using that logic, then winning games one, two and three would provide no advantage over four, five and six, which seems to imply that there is no adverse impact from going down 0-3 in a series.
Hm, no, you didn't get it.
Rather, winning games one, two, three and losing games four, five, six, is no better or worse than the other way around.
Sabathia: sure, but not if you adjust for late-in-the-seasons. (I only looked at a couple of seasons, though.) The worry is that by October, he'll be worn down, and a few days off in September could help him be in better shape in October.
Also, when you have the adrenaline of playing in a big series, it might be kind of hard to just take a nap.
That same adrenaline should mitigate the impact of jet lag, shouldn't it?
All the best advice in the world doesn’t remove the impact.
That's if there is an impact to be had. There is more than enough opportunity for a ballplayer to rest before a game or before a big series. It's not like they go to the stadium when they get off the plane.
Maybe they're affected, maybe they aren't.
[49] The whole point about getting off to a good start comes without the assumption that you then lose the same amount of games. Having a 2-0 or 3-0 series lead strikes me as a significant advantage and I think it can be more easily attained by having homefield. I further think that once a team takes such a lead, the advantage extends beyond now having to win fewer games...it also has the benefit of placing the opponent under greater pressure.
Every year, Sabathia seems to get stronger as the season goes on, so I am not sure what works best for him. If it was up to me I would keep him on schedule so he starts the playoffs with as close to normal rest as possible. There's no reason to mess with what has been working.
[50] What you often hear from players is that adrenaline gets you past the first day, but then the lag hits you hard thereafter. I've never played a big athletic event after cross country travel, so I have to take their word for it.
So, if maybe they are affected, wouldn't it be best to avoid the scenario instead of simply hoping that maybe they wont be?
[49] The whole point about getting off to a good start comes without the assumption that you then lose the same amount of games. Having a 2-0 or 3-0 series lead strikes me as a significant advantage and I think it can be more easily attained by having homefield.
Yes, having a 2-0 or 3-0 series lead is a very significant advantage indeed.
Having home field for games one and two gives you a better chance at winning games one and two. Having home field for games three and four gives you a better chance at winning games three and four.
These advantages are equal.
Getting the extra home game is an advantage, but only if you actually play it.
What you often hear from players is that adrenaline gets you past the first day, but then the lag hits you hard thereafter.
Players often say things that have proven to be untrue or otherwise incorrect, whether it's about protection in the order, statistical analysis, or personnel decisions, why would what they say about jet lag be any more true?
[46] Heads. Heads. Heads. Heads. Heads. Heads.
[55] Thank you, Rosencrantz. Joe Morgan sends his regards.