Today’s news is powered by . . . The Year of the Cat:
- Yanks set team record for dingers.
- A-Rod has a nice inning for himself.
- Limited number of playoff game seats go on sale tomorrow.
- 20 moments that shaped baseball in NY this season. Here is the top Yankee moment:
1. June 24 at Atlanta
The offense is sagging and the Yankees are five games back in the American League East race. Brian Cashman flies in for a surprise visit, challenging the hitters in a meeting. Joe Girardi is ejected while the Yankees are being no-hit in the sixth. Francisco Cervelli’s homer fuels a seven-game winning streak, and the Yankees never look back.
- Mariano Rivera, a pitchf/x appreciation:
Effectively he has two pitches to LHBs (inside and outside cutter) and three to RHBs (inside and outside cutter and an inside four-seam fastball). Throughout this article I classify each pitch as either inside (x<0 to RHBs, x>0 to LHBs) or outside (x>0 to RHBs, x<0 to LHBs). Here is how the five pitches do by run value and some other per-pitch-metrics. FA denotes fastball, FCi inside cutter, rv100 is the run value per 100 pitches with negative good, whiff is the percentage of swings that miss the ball, oswing is the percentage of pitches out of the zone swung at, called is called strikes per pitch, gb% is ground balls per ball in play, iff% infield flies per ball in play and slgcon is slugging on contacted pitches.
rhb-FA rhb-FCi rhb-FCo lhb-FCi lhb-FCo rv100 -1.3 -0.2 -1.8 -3.6 -2.5 whiff 0.10 0.25 0.26 0.17 0.21 oswing 0.43 0.29 0.36 0.50 0.18 called 0.11 0.21 0.16 0.11 0.36 gb% 0.63 0.42 0.44 0.55 0.69 iff% 0.04 0.15 0.06 0.20 0.0 slgcont 0.333 0.597 0.408 0.273 0.408Generally he gets more whiffs against RHBs, but much poorer contact against LHBs. His slugging on contact against lefties with his inside pitch is 0.273, much lower than the average BABIP. Amazing. The result is his remarkable reverse platoon split, evident in the run value numbers. The glove-side version of his cutter is better than the arm-side version, that is inside to lefties (Rivera’s glove-side) is better than outside to lefties (Rivera’s arm-side) and outside to righties (Rivera’s glove-side) is better than inside (Rivera’s arm-side) to righties.
Poll time!
[poll id=”40″]
- Aaron Guiel turns 37 today. Guiel was a waiver-wire pick-up during the ’06 season. He was a part-time OF for the Bombers.
- Rey Sanchez turns 42 today. Sanchez spent parts of the ’97 and ’05 seasons with the Yanks as a middle infield sub. He was acquired from the Cubs in ’97 for the wonderfully-named Frisco Parotte.
- Andy Kosco turns 68 today. Kosco spent the ’68 season with the Yanks, and his .240 average was actually great for a team that batted .214 for the season. Kosco was then traded to the Dodgers for Mike Kekich.
- On this date in 1912, the New York Highlanders play their last game at their field, Hilltop Park, beating the Washington Senators, 8 – 6, on the strength of Hal Chase’s three-run home run. Next year the team will play at the Polo Grounds. Homer Thompson, in his only major league appearance, is the catcher for New York while pitching is his brother Tommy, becoming the first brother battery in American League history.
- On this date in 1941, in the World Series, Brooklyn Dodgers catcher Mickey Owen drops a third strike on Tommy Henrich, in what would have been the final out of a Dodgers victory against the New York Yankees. Given a second chance, the Yankees then rally for a 7 – 4 win to take a 3-1 Series lead.
- On this date in 1947, left fielder Al Gionfriddo makes a spectacular catch and robs Joe DiMaggio of a game-tying home run in Game Six of the World Series. The Brooklyn Dodgers beat the Yankees, 8 – 6.
- On this date in 2007, the Cleveland Indians can thank a bug infestation at Jacobs Field for helping them defeat the New York Yankees 2-1 in 11 innings and take a 2-0 lead in the ALDS. The bugs are at their worst in the eight inning, when a flustered Joba Chamberlain gives up the tying run on a wild pitch.
wait, i thought mo had just 1 pitch :}
good pull from pitch f/x
and since we are at the close of the regular season, just wanted to say notd has been a nice addition to the banner - good stuff diane
Speaking of Mo, I am having trouble reconciling something in Tom Verducci article in SI. It said that Mo his four seam fastball the way he always had, and inexplicably, at some point, it began to cut:
Yet Bob Klapisch reported in The Record that Rivera taught that grip to Hughes:
So are we to believe that Rivera was using a standard four seam fastball grip and that grip suddenly caused the ball to cut, and now that same four seam fastball grip can be taught to other pitchers and the ball will still cut?
That seems strange to me. Am I missing something?
This article says that Girardi is the best at bullpen management, including using them in the high leverage situations:
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/10/bullpen_managem.php
[2] i think it has something to do with god
[2] Sounds like Verducci embellished, which is kind of his trademark. I doubt Mo's cutter magically developed from his 4-seamer.
[3] There were some flaws in that analysis that were outlined in the comments (including one of my own).
[4] Everything does. Mo's faith is one of the things I admire most about him, so it wouldn't surprise me if it gives him an inner strength that enables him to deal with situations that might otherwise overwhelm others.
[5] or ramiro mendoza - aka el brujo
I think Joba earned his way back on the post season roster with his relief appearance. His velocity was good (though still not 98mph) and his pace was very determined and aggressive. If Joba could pitch like that in the post season, the Yankees would have the last three innings sewn up.
[6] It also no doubt helps him deal with the occasional setbacks and blown saves. he is the one player I expect always to have perspective and not freak out.
[3] That's a very nice chart, good graphics.
I'm not sure how much credit Girardi should get for his Top Use award. It amounts to having Rivera and Hughes for the ninth and eighth innings, and sticking with them. Okay, he gets some credit for sticking with them (compare Torre, who had a great bullpen but spent some stubborn months misusing them), but it's not exactly inspired.
[5] So you're saying Verducci's "reporting" is apocryphal?
That's probably the only explanation that makes sense.
[3] Excellent! Exactly what most of us suspected. Even leaving Mo and Hughes aside, the guy has turned the bullpen into a huge plus after starting with spare parts, and now two seasons in a row.
[5] There are flaws with every analysis. That's what makes the critic's job easy. And few critics actually create.
[10] But it's not just Mo and Hughes. Robertson has been a revelation. Coke is very useful. Aceves finished 10-1. Even Bruney and Gaudin came around. Next year he'll bring Melancon more fully into the fold.
Verducci wanted to charge my high school a speaker's fee for giving a commencement address when I was a senior (he's an alumni...hell, the football field is named after his father who coached there for 30-something years).
This has absolutely nothing to do with his abilities as a writer, but it just makes me feel good anytime someone wants to rip him.
Leaving Mo and Hughes aside...LOL
[1]
Thanks! Makes me feel good to read that.
I'm pretty sure the analysis shows that Girardi did not use Robertson particularly well. Dave got lower-leverage innings than Phil Coke did.
I think this is understandable -- Coke looked good at the beginning of the year, and furthermore I can't blame Girardi heavily for being too devoted to going with the lefty in lefty situations (even though it wasn't the right move -- I mean, practically every manager does this). But leaving Mo and Hughes aside, I think the analysis shows that Girardi wasn't particularly good.
But again: I do give him credit for not messing up the talent he was dealt. And remember, at the beginning of the year the bullpen was supposed to be the Yankees' weakness, so it was hardly predictable that they'd turn out to be the "most clutch" in baseball.
This is a sweet thread:
We have references to Mo's faith and God [4][6][9], revelation [13] and apocrypha [11]. If only someone could work in a Dead Sea Scrolls comment!
; )
[17] Pus, converting Hughes into the Eighth Inning Guy guaranteed the phoenix like appearances of Sergio Mitre, though one may argue that decision was more organizational than managerial.
so it was hardly predictable that they’d turn out to be the “most clutch” in baseball.
Well, you know what they say...
[19] By the way, John Sterling predicted that A-Rod would get 7 RBI in the sixth inning. He said it was obvious; you could pretty much guarantee it based on the sabermetric data.
[18]
Dead Sea Scrolls anagrams to (among other things) Declared As Loss
... which I submit would be how we felt about A-Rod back in February.
[20]
You mean John Sterling is actually Mike Blowers? :-)
[9] I'll allow that it might be my imagination, but Joba seemed different out there yesterday. His face was set a different way, it seemed. More intense. I still think his, uh, "disposition" is uniquely suited to relief pitching. He has the capacity for great intensity but it's not sustainable over more than an inning or two.
[17] and pretty much all of the shitbums that were the weakness were gone after some period of time (veras, edwar, etc)
so cashman probably deserves some blame for beginning the year with them and then some credit for replacing them, so not all of the pen's good or bad is with just girardi
[18] hey - don't forget i managed to work in el brujo
Oops I meant [8] for [23]
[23]
Interesting ... perhaps its a (lack of) maturity ... does he want to be a pitcher, or merely a thrower?
[9] Kind of sounds like putting the cart before the horse to me.
[17] See, after watching Torre not develop one reliever in 10 years, I'm a bit more ready to give Girardi credit. You can say he was dealt the talent, but he did something with it. How many here buried Bruney? And yet he came back and was effective. Gaudin was a mess when he came over and he became more valuable.
True, Robertson didn't get high leverage innings until late in the season, but he does now. It took a while for Coke to get straight but he is again. Who gets credit for Aceves?
At some point the patterns become more and more obvious. Girardi has now done this for two years running. I have little doubt he'll have many more to do the same. And sooner or later the haters will have nothing left to hate, except perhaps the stray bunt by the captain.
[24] I kind of like that Cashman strategy, so I don't assess any blame there. He stuck a bunch of question marks in the bullpen, and with the exception of Bruney he successfully weeded out the bad ones and kept the good ones (and even Bruney was better than the fan cringe factor would suggest). I suspect there's no better way to select relief pitchers. And besides Marte, the question marks didn't get any significant salary.
By the way, with Joba and Robertson and Coke, behind Hughes and Mo, who doesn't feel good with *5* decent innings from the starter.
As usual, it all comes down to the starting pitching, doesn't it?
[26] From here, I don't think he has a choice. It sounds like he wants to be a pitcher, but he's really a thrower at heart. Everyone has different things they can draw on to perform at their highest level and it seems like Joba feeds off of a kind of short fuse energy. Maybe he'll grow out of it, who knows. I had a friend once who was a complete animal and was very entertaining and fun to be around, but he'd always insist that wasn't him, that he was really a quiet, poetic type. And I could see that he was sometimes, but 95% of the time he really was just naturally a beast. At a certain point you are what you are, ya know?
[28] Yes, good points. I give some of that credit to Cashman. But it's true that it was reasonable to withhold trust in Robertson, and though Girardi didn't do as well as our hindsight he did pretty well.
[24] [29] But how much of that is knowing the manager? Cashman tried this with Torre too. And it never seemed to work. Never.
[28] torre developed mo - after showalter basically burried him
[23] [26] but joba had been a starter before - i think he is still having trouble properly pacing himself against a mlb caliber lineup and for as many innings as he threw this year
i think we are seeing how much easier both physically and mentally being a middle reliever is than being a starter
i still think joba is and can be a starter - he just has some more work to do on his approach and stamina, which i think will help his mechanics
Here's a cool quiz .... name the player who, amongst those with at least 502 PA this season, drove in the highest percentage of baserunners ...
(answer later)
[31] I would fully support Joba becoming a "Mo in 96" reliever. Throw him for 100 innings a year.
The Yankees should absolutely re-sign Pettitte. If so, by mid-2010 the Joba Journey could have come full circle with Kennedy and McAllister close and Hughes in the rotation. Let's give him another half season, at least. But I agree - the bullpen does seem to fit him really well even as he should be given every opportunity to succeed as a starter.
[29] yeah i agree - blame is probably too strong a word - he hoped to get the most out of edwar and veras and this year their true level of suck came out - and as you so wonderfully coined the phrase rang (relievers are no good) you have to try to maximize most of these guys peaks because by and large they aren't that good
[34] I'm not sure we can use "developed" with Mo. He's a once in history pitcher. Showalter also used him in the 95 playoffs exactly as he was used in the 96 season. The team knew he was a weapon at that point.
[37] That's where the manager is so important - maximizing their peaks. Girardi seems to do that remarkably well.
[35] Arod?
[38] Yep. Torre's history of "developing" young players, at least with the Yankees, was pretty bad. Jeter was basically forced upon him because of injury, and went out in won the ROY. Mo, as you point out, also sort of happened. Maybe the closest thing a "development" was his slow bringing-along of Posada...though even here one could complain that tendency to favor veterans kept Po out of the lineup far too often.
I've often thought that in some ways, Mo was the worst thing to happen to Torre, because after 1996 he seemed to want to find the same magic formula. But as you note, Mo is a once in a generation (at least) phenomenon. It's hard to build a strategy around "find a HOF reliever as you set-up man." But Torre seemed to become whetted to this pursuit.
[35] I'll try Jason Kubel (largely because I'm expecting it to be surprising).
I know that the Yankees are an offensive juggernaut (gotta love baseball hyperbole), but we didn't get to 103 wins with only hitting and starting pitching. The fact that we are entering into the post season with the bukkpen arms in tact and ready to roll leads me to believe that Girardi managed them well enough.
Joba is a thrower for now. It wasn't obvious to me until the last few days, only to be confirmed yesterday. I fell on the Joba as starter argument and now I'm not sure I can say that wholeheartedly. Hughes, I can envision in the starting rotation. I say flip flop.
Diane, you do a great job although I despise Al Stewart.
[40]
He drove in 16.6% .... but the leader drove in 19.8%, despite hitting fewer than 20 homers.
[43]
Thanks .... I do try and keep the music varied ... :-)
[42]
Kubel drove in 17.9% .... and he LED the Twins in RBIs this year (due in part to Mauer and Morneau missing about 30 games each)
Some final facts on the Yankee season:
The win total of 103 was tied with four other seasons for the 7th best total in franchise history.
The run total of 915 was the 14th highest total in franchise, but the OPS of .839 was the 4th highest total.
In addition to breaking the HR record, the 2009 team also recorded the 10th most hits, 3rd most doubles and tied for the best fielding percentage in team history.
On the pitching side, the 2009 team recorded the second highest strikeout (10th highest k/9) and seventh highest save totals in team history. Also, the average age of a Yankee pitcher was 29.3, the first time it was under 30 since 1997.
[44] Dusty McSkittles?
[48]
Not even close ... :-) (13.8%)
(Big Papi ... 15.6%)
[44] The Captain?
[44] Wait a minute - less than 20 HR? Jeter!
[51] That was my hint, too. And he probably doesn't see as many opportunities so his raw RBI won't be that high.
[35]
Here's another hint .... he led the majors in having the most runners on 3rd base during his at-bats (101).
Think of which team seemed to go first-to-third all the time.
Sound like the An-hells. If this is Chone Figgins....
[51], [52]
Jeter came in at 12.8%
[54]
It is an Angel, but NOT Figgins.
[52] Our logic was sound, but I looked up the answer - and we're not right.
The winner did drive in over 100 runs.
This was really excellent, Diane! I have to echo ms october - I've really come to enjoy NotD. I'm going to miss it in the offseason (I'm guessing you're not going to do it every day during the offseason).
Bobby Abreu?
[58]
Ding ding ding ... we have a winner!
[59] Yeah!!! He fit the profile with that winning smile.
Abreu. Oh well. I'd still rather have Swisher out in right. Obviously not as talented, but a hell of a lot more fun for me to watch.
Gaudin was a mess when he came over and he became more valuable.
No, he wasn't a mess in SD.
Yep. Torre’s history of “developing” young players, at least with the Yankees, was pretty bad. Jeter was basically forced upon him because of injury, and went out in won the ROY.
However, Soriano was worked in. Cano, Melky and Wang were worked in. I don't remember how Nick Johnson's usage patterns were, but he got a decent number of AB's.
Showalter also used him in the 95 playoffs exactly as he was used in the 96 season.
That is incorrect. Rivera never came in to setup. He only pitched 3 games in the ALDS, twice he was the last guy out of the pen (gm 2 & 3), and game 5 he came in after Cone ran out of gas.
During the 96 season, Rivera didn't start off as the primary setup man, IIRC, Nelson, Wickman & Howe were the primary setup guys.
OK ... here's a variation of the first question ...
Which player, with a minimum of 502 PAs this season, drove in the LOWEST % of runners from third?
[61]
Swisher came in at 13.4% ...
[62]
Rivera DID lead the Yanks in Holds during '96
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYY/1996-pitching.shtml#players_reliever_pitching
[63] I love this. These are truly obscure stats that really lend meaning to the players. Very interesting. Give us a hint?
[66]
Hint ... he's an ex-Yankee, currently playing in the NL ...
[67] Soriano
Ouch
[68]
Hot Mama .... correct again!
Sori drove in a mere 18.9% of runners on 3rd, 4% lower than the next worse (Curtis Granderson)
(A-Rod drove in 31.3% BTW)
i really don't see any logical way of arguing that hughes has shown he should be a starter whereas joba is a "thrower" and therefore must be a reliever. both have been dramatically better in relief than in the rotation. both have had some great starts and some terrible ones. both have been incredible in the pen. joba has that fist pump attitude, but he also has more good pitches than hughes. here are their career splits:
hughes as starter
141.1 ip 144 hits 82 er 112 k 59 bb 5.22 era 1.44 whip 1.90 k/bb .778 opsa
hughes as reliever
51.1 ip 31 hits 8 er 65 k 14 bb 1.40 era 0.86 whip 5.00 k/bb .456 opsa
joba as starter
221.2 ip 227 hits 103 er 206 k 105 bb 4.18 era 1.48 whip 2.04 k/bb .759 opsa
joba as reliever
60 ip 39 hits 10 er 79 k 20 bb 1.50 era 0.98 whip 3.95 k/bb .512 opsa
again, i don't see how you can argue phil should be a starter but not joba. at least joba had a stretch as a starter last year where he looked close to fulfilling his potential.
[6] i'm sure that faith in god is a big part of mo's life and is reassuring to him. but i highly object to the idea that lack of faith in god would hinder others.
[62] However, Soriano was worked in.
No he wasn't. He played a handful of games then started full time in 2001 after Knoblauch had been converted to a LF because he couldn't throw straight.
Cano,
To some degree. Again, a slot opened up because Soriano had been traded two years before and the Yanks had gone with Miguel Cairo at 2B, who was sent packing to the Mets in 2005. But there was no development of Cano, and there was no competition--he came in and hit real good, so he got to start the whole year (more or less). Torre had no choice but to start him.
Melky
Nope. He played a few games because Bernie couldn't roll the ball to the infield. The next year he became the starting LF.
and Wang were worked in.
Again, as I recall, Wang was called up in 2005 because of a rash of injuries, and (like Pettitte several years before) he pitched well and stuck. The next year he posted a 3.30+ ERA.
In all of these cases, the lack of options and/or injuries forced Torre to start the young player, and early success all but guaranteed that they stayed in the lineup. There was very little by way of "developing" these players at the MLB level.
I don’t remember how Nick Johnson’s usage patterns were, but he got a decent number of AB’s.
Yes, Nick Johnson was brought along more slowly, splitting time with Giambi at 1B and DH...and the DL. Before he was packaged off for Javier Vasquez.
Happy 60th birthday, Bill James!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_James
[58] [68] i'm late to the party, but that game was fun! i've always loved Abreu and still do. same with lil' Sori, but he's getting harder and harder to watch and root for. i still do though...
[0] c'mon folks, we know the REAL reason that is the Yankees' top moment. it *was* in Atlanta on June 24th, but it wasn't 'coz Brian Cashman showed up - it was 'coz Thelarmis J. Younkin was at the game cheering his head off!!! ; )
Torre developed Rivera.
No he wasn’t. He played a handful of games then started full time in 2001 after Knoblauch had been converted to a LF because he couldn’t throw straight.
Soriano posted a .290/.327/.464 line @ AAA. He was ready. He started @ SS, played a bit of 3b, and became the FT starter @ 2b in 01.
To some degree. Again, a slot opened up because Soriano had been traded two years before and the Yanks had gone with Miguel Cairo at 2B, who was sent packing to the Mets in 2005.
Womack was signed to play 2b for a couple of years. Cano had posted a .301/.356/.497 line @ AA Trenton in 04, and .333/.368/.574 @ AAA when he got the call. Yankees may have been playing it conservative with him, which seems to be the case with their prospects.
Nope. He played a few games because Bernie couldn’t roll the ball to the infield. The next year he became the starting LF.
Due to Matsui's wrist injury. He got a quick call in 05 but wasn't ready. But even when he became a FT starter, he posted .385/.430/.566 @ AAA, he may have been ready or at the very least figured into the teams' plans.
In all of these cases, the lack of options and/or injuries forced Torre to start the young player, and early success all but guaranteed that they stayed in the lineup. There was very little by way of “developing” these players at the MLB level.
But isn't that what developing players all about? I think we may have different opinions about what consists of developing a player.
Not sure about the lack of options. A player can be called up, a player can be traded for, a released player can be picked up. In the case of Cano vs Womack, I wouldn't put it past Torre to start Womack because he's "due" for a "hot streak." And I'm sure there were other options other than the "hot prospect" that could've gotten the call.
Wasn't Tony Fernandez expected to keep SS warm for Jeter? Or is my memory playing tricks on me?
[78] absolutely! then he got injured during spring training, methinks. iirc, torre was a bit hesitant to give jeter the starting job right outta the chute. wait, didn't they get some total scrub to do it, then he got hurt, as well. i even think that guy was mentioned here recently. perhaps in one of Diane's NOTD tidbits, at the end of her column.
[79] I remember Fernandez's elbow injury. I think he was signed to a 2 year deal. 96 would've been his last season, I think Jeter was to be worked in 96 with him maybe starting in 97 if he was ready. At any rate, he posted a .317/.394/.422 line in 1995 and excelled @ 3 levels in 94.
[77] Perhaps we have different definitions of develop--yes, that's true. It seems to me that the Yankees as an organization do not tend to "work young players in", and they tend to be very impatient with young players who start slowly. Perhaps Torre's managerial tendencies reflected that broader organizational tendency, perhaps they contributed to it.
Returning to the specific discussion, obviously all of those players were ready in AAA. That's the point. But with the exception of Bernie and Posada, I can think of no young players who were developed, in the sense that they were brought along slowly, eased into the starting job, etc. Basically, the Cano's and Jeter's sort of sprang fully formed from Zeus' head and assumed a starting position that was vacated because of injury or complete and utter incompetence. It's hard to talk about "developing" a player like Jeter, who was drafted high and won minor league player of the year twice (IIRC).
[81]
I guess I have my next rainy day activity .... % of PAs or IP by age, for each season since Torre took over.
[81] as you sort of allude to i think that is more of a function of the yankees than simply and totally on torre.
i guess using your definition, one could say the twins developed santana; maybe the red sox developed ugly
[82] i don't think that is fair diane - for much of torre's tenure he had veteran players acquired through trade or free agency - he had a win now mandate and there wasn't time or space to wait 3 years for someone to develop - and it's not as if torre was refusing to play grady sizemore in center instead of bernie - sure there were a few instance he could have given more pt to younger players but it's not the most egregious thing on earth
But with the exception of Bernie and Posada, I can think of no young players who were developed, in the sense that they were brought along slowly, eased into the starting job, etc.
Does Bernie really qualify using your definition of development? He came up in 91 after posting a .294/.372/.458 line @ AAA (FT starter in July, posting a 238/.336/.350 line in the majors). Then the following year he started @ AAA where he hit .306/.389/.485 (.280/.354/.406 as a Yankee). Joining the club was Danny Tartabull, who was signed to a big contract during the 91 offseason. Already on the team was Mel Hall, Jesse Barfield, and Roberto Kelly, which made for a crowded OF.
Posada, OTOH, may be an indictment of Torre's preference for veterans.
for much of torre’s tenure he had veteran players acquired through trade or free agency – he had a win now mandate and there wasn’t time or space to wait 3 years for someone to develop
To be fair, it was the same under Showalter; where the majority of guys on the roster were veteran players acquired through trade & FA. There really wasn't a need to wait for guys to develop under Showalter. The Yanks started contending in 93, Showater's second season as manager.
We can argue about the others, but Torre never developed a bullpen arm in 12 seasons. That's where he always had a choice and he never chose wisely consistently enough to develop a young pitcher.
Torre never developed a bullpen arm in 12 seasons.
Rivera? Mendoza?
Given the volatile nature of bullpens, saying that he never developed a bullpen arm shouldn't be much of an indictment. Bullpen arms by nature are the flotsam and jetsam of MLB. If they were any good, they wouldn't be middle relief.