Hi folks . . . back from SF (pics up later this week) and good to be back. I’ll be here on Mondays and Thursdays from here through the opening of Spring Training.
Today’s update is powered by . . . Mr. Tony Bennett
- What’s left in the Yankee Stadium clubhouse?
- A-Rod is now just “one of the guys“.
- The Captain reflects on a return to glory.
- Girardi’s next payday?:
Though the Yankees’ policy is not to address contracts until they expire, things might get interesting this winter. Girardi will also likely ask for an extension since his three-year, $7.5 million deal runs out at the end of next season. If the Yankees don’t extend Girardi, then he will be a rare manager who comes off a World Series victory yet faces lame-duck status. Quoth Cashman, “We have to evaluate everything when we have our organizational meetings—players, coaches, and manager.”
- Some Hot Stove scuttlebutt from Baseball Prospectus:
World Series MVP Hideki Matusi will sign with another major league team if he does not re-sign with the Yankees as a free agent, instead of returning to his native Japan. … Yankees closer Mariano Rivera was serious when he said during the World Series trophy presentation that he wants to play five more seasons. Rivera feels so good after having shoulder surgery last winter that he believes he can pitch until he is 45. …
- Happy 45th birthday to Kevin Mmahat.
- Dion James turns 47 today.
6 cartons of coconut water: that's what? a half-day's supply for a 1000 lb. centaur?
I'll gladly keep Mo for another 5 years.
Mo can hang around until 50 if he wants.
I really don't think the Damon/Matsui question is that hard. If the option is to not really replace whomever doesn't come back, but instead use the DH as a waystation, then I think you bring them both back. It would be an absolutely awful idea to think you can give away that much offense.
If the decision is to pursue another player, whether by free agency (Holliday, Bay, etc.) or trade, then you have to pick and choose. If you bring in an everyday OF'er, it probably makes more sense to stick with Matsui as the everyday DH unless you think Damon will be open to that role.
I would also like to see the Yankees take advantage of the down market and bolster their bench. There should be a good amount of players normally unwilling to sign with the Yankees because of a lack of playing time, who might now do so because of the smaller contracts being handed out.
I haven't given this a ton of thought yet, but my first move would be to approach Matsui and Damon with 2 year offers. Maybe a team option for the 3rd year, and a nice buyout. That's the most I'd do. If they accept, great. If not, then fill the score truck with cash and head to the free agent mall. But rather than sit and wait on the market for Damon and Matsui, the Yanks should see if they can get both of them back for short term deals. That's what I'd like to see.
King Felix and Halladay? Let the Mariners and Blue Jays know you're interested, and hear what they have to say, do the dance, but be prepared to see them under another team's Christmas tree.
[2] yeah, 5 more years, and a fan option at the end of the deal for 5 more. Let's get that done today, Cashman.
[3] would you go to 3 years with either Damon or Matsui?
My initial reaction to choosing between Matsui and Damon comes down to "it has to be Damon, still has the bat and is much more versatile than Matsui."
But then I start thinking about who is more likely to break down over the course of a long season, Matsui batting 4 times a game and spending the rest of the day hanging out in the dugout with his feet up and eating sunflower seeds...or Damon hitting 4 times a game whilst going on his excellent adventures out in left.
Both of their bats are hugely valuable, but so much of Damon's strength comes from his legs...and I don't know how long those are going to hold up. Was him leaving Game 6 early a sign of things to come?
Personally I offer both of them 2 year deals with one year guaranteed and a club option/big fat buyout for the second year.
[5] Hey now. He's not Kyle Farnsworth...
:)
In other news, looks like the Jays are going to trade Lyle Overbay to the NL. After those four difference making years he had in Toronto, its only fair that they allow him to bring some other team to the great heights he took Toronto to.
[7] Honestly, and I rarely say this, even with a championship team, I would just send this same team out there again, with minor changes to the bench and bullpen (NO MORE BRUNEY). I think they can win again next year with Damon and Matsui back.
[7] Damon's had problems with his calf muscles, but those problems seem to come and go. I don't think they're a huge concern, but just another good reason to keep the deal at 2 years max.
Just wishful thinking, Mattpat. Looks like Overbay will stay in Toronto, continuing to wreak havoc with AL East pitching for years to come.
[6] Not three years unless there is no viable alternative. I would be ok with 2 years for Damon and Matsui, but would really push for 1 year and an option.
[7] Damon is more versatile, but his defense is getting to the point that his versatility is actually a negative. Matsui is probably a more valuable player because he doesn't have the negative defensive contribution of Damon. The fact of the matter is both are DHs, so I think the only thing that should be used to differentiate between them is how you think they'll do with that bat going forward.
[12] Even as a DH, Johnny is more versatile because run a bit still.
I would like the Yankees to target one bat---it doesn't have to be an impact bat, just a solid hitter---that can play some OF. Unless both Matsui and Damon return, and we agree that is unlikely, this team will probably need another OF to play in LF or DH or at least provide bench depth.
[13] Right, but the bulk of value still is in the bat.
I like the idea of a good 4th OF'er (maybe a Marlon Byrd), but think that requires that you bring back both Damon and Matsui.
The alternative is to get a Holliday (or trade for someone off the radar) and also bring back Matsui or Damon.
What I think the Yankees can't do is subtract from this offense. Just about everyone had had very good years, so while I can see Alex and Tex being better, it is possible that everyone else could see a drop off. The Yankees shouldn't make the mistake of 2008, which was to think they had enough offense to allow for outs in the lineups.
Moving up from yesterday's thread, I am 'what he said' with monkeypants and Paul (who are sort of what I said, I guess). I am not worried about a DH logjam, I see Posada's value as essentially catching or low. He got a year too long, but that's not the issue for 2010. As a C, even a below average but not killingly so C, his value is considerable. As a DH it is not.
I was actually more conservative than the '2 years for Damon and Matsui' crowd. My sense was to try to get Matsui for a year, because I think Damon might get 3. At the least Damon gets Abreu numbers, surely. (Though Abreu also probably caps what JD can command.) Cashman DOES want to get younger, everyone does, but we won the WS with veterans. (Only one piece I have read has made this point, how it cuts against what everyone was saying in spring, how youth was now the mantra with steroids gone, etc.)
And I refuse to buy into a minor leaguer as a guaranteed massive bat for a decade and a half. Ask Texas and KC about their guarantees in Blalock or Alex "Return of George Brett" Gordon. These superprospects show up in 4-5 places every season. And 2-3 years later there's a lot of headshaking.
There should be a good amount of players normally unwilling to sign with the Yankees because of a lack of playing time, who might now do so because of the smaller contracts being handed out.
I would think that they would want to sign with a team where they could get playing time so that they could get a bigger contract. A situation like Orlando Cabrera's comes to mind.
I do think we need to consider cost. I think there's a chance that the Yanks can get a sweetheart deal from both Mats and Damon that would make both cost less than any (younger, but statistically) equivalent free agent. With a better FA off season next year, I think you can patch for a year and look for great trades during the year if necessary. Matsui can be (when not the full time DH, which is a better role for him) an amazing bench player - he showed that by his pinch hitting in the Serious. That's a valuable role that I don't think Damon would be mentally prepared for. I also don't think Damon has enough bat to be a full time DH.
On the other hand, a one year contract would obviously be amazing for the Yankees with either player if they can get it. I looked at Posada's numbers versus Matsui's and was really surprised to see that Po has consistently better power (and OPS). That made me realize how much the DH will be useful for PO (and the Yanks) down the road and even next year.
I'm frustrated by how many people think the plan should be for Jeter to use the DH slot. When Jeter doesn't occupy the shortstop spot in the lineup, his offense relative to position drops dramatically. He can't be a corner outfielder and he certainly can't be a DH without hurting the lineup. When Jeter needs a day off from the field, he needs to take a day off from the lineup too - which is certainly no big deal.
[16] The choice might come down to $3mn guaranteed or less than $1mn for the chance at more playing time. If that's the case, I could see more players taking the money now.
[17] What FAs do you think are better next season? Halladay is one, but he could wind up signing an extension if he is traded. I really haven't looked recently, but remember not being impressed by both the 2010 and 2011 free agent classes.
As for Jeter, with the exception of 2008, his offense has been plenty good enough to play elsewhere, probably going back as far 1998.
One important thing to consider this off season, is the Red Sox and Angels both have very challenging winters ahead. If the Yankees make the right moves, and these teams do not, the gap between them could expand signficantly.
do we think TB picks up Crawford's option (I believe its $10M with a $1.5M buyout). If he's out there, I think that can change the conversation.
[19] I agree that position problems of the Sox and Angels is the single most important factor for the Yankees in the off season. The Red Sox don't even have a full-time short stop under contract, and there's no big free agent for them to sign. They probably must overpay for Bay or Holliday to make up for other problems. I hope the Yankees push the bidding high...
[18] I'll look up the possible FA list and post it, but it's better than this year in the outfield. Also, Jeter's power over the last three years is average or just below for RF and that shows up in his OPS (a stat I hate but don't have a substitute for).
[20] My guess is they would excercise it and trade him if they didn't think he fit into their plan/budget. To be honest, I really don't think he would be that great of an addition. He's a good glove, but his offense has really never taken the next step. I don't know if I'd want to commit big dollars to a guy whose game centers around his legs.
[21] His power might be below average for those positions, but his OBP more than makes up for it, and most analysis has shown OBP correlates better to run production. OPS actually penalizes Jeter because it weights SLG and OPS equally, but OPS+ does make up for this a little bit (albeit inadvertently), and Jeter has scored well in that regard.
[22] So because I didn't know where to find the numbers compiled, I did them myself with data from BP and you are righter than I am, but I stick with the conclusion. Jeter is not good enough offensively to be an asset in RF. I guess I need to do this for CF, where the conclusion should be the opposite:
AL RF last three years (09 08 07) slugging: 0.451 0.459 0.465
avg of last three: 0.458
Jeter last three years slugging: 0.465 0.408 0.452
avg of last three: 0.441
AL RF OBP last three: 0.353 0.351 0.355
avg of last three: 0.353
Jeter last three OBP: 0.406 0.363 0.388
avg of last three: 0.386
AL RF avg OPS over last three: .811
Jeter avg OPS last three years: .827
So Jeter has less power but better OBP than the AVERAGE RF.
Do the Yankees want a near average RF?
Let me just add that I'm a rabid Jeter fan, but feel his positional advantage at short is so gigantic and advantageous for the Yankees, that he should, with any reasonable decline rate, be able to man the position above average for quite a long time.
[23] But the OBP advantage for Jeter is significant, so his just ABOVE average OPS is even better when you overweight OBP.
Also, it is a little misleading to use 3-year numbers because 2008 was an outlier year for Jeter, so it does weight him down.
Both Hawpe and Werth are free next year. Dunn too and he'd make a great DH in YS 2.0.
No on Crawford.