Today’s update is powered by some classic LL Cool J:
- Bill Madden chastises J0hnny Damon:
Damon has only himself to blame. Here’s a guy who has made $97.2 million in his career and for an extra $6 million he sacrificed happiness and contentment and all the other perks associated with playing for a world champion team in New York. If he really wanted to stay a Yankee, he should’ve told Boras: “Go shop around for a three-year offer, but at the end of the day just make sure I’m still wearing pinstripes.” Instead, he drank the Boras Kool-Aid and came out looking like just another baseball mercenary. Happy trails, Johnny.
- Chien-Ming Wang is not lacking for suitors:
Fifteen teams have inquired about the rehabbing righty, according to agent Alan Nero, and while Nero wouldn’t confirm which teams are involved (except the Yankees, who would like to match any final offer) you can bet the Red Sox are one of them. The plan, according to Nero, is for Wang to visit Dr. James Andrews Jan. 4 and get an updated timeframe on his comeback. The big righthander has had foot, hip, and shoulder issues the past year-plus, but appears to be in good shape. Nero said Wang has been long-tossing since Dec. 1 with no issues, and is hoping to return to the mound in early May.
- Some of the Yanks respond to the moves made by the BoSox.
- George Vescey offers a commentary on the changing faces in the outfield.
Poll time!
[poll id=”44″]
- D’Angelo Jiminez (7 games with Yanks in ’99, before getting traded for Jay Witasick) turns 32 today.
- LaTroy Hawkins (33 relief appearances in ’08, before getting traded for Astros’ Matt Cusick) turns 37 today.
[My take: So, if you were born on this day, you would end up being traded for someone whose last name ends in -sick?]
- Elliott Maddox (pushed Bobby Murcer out of CF in ’74) turns 62 today.
Does anyone know the typical Agent commission? Is it 5%?
Well... Boris is hired and paid well to do a job, and in this case he has failed badly. JD has said it what? 20 times? That he wants to return to the Yankees? Boris had the Abreu deal and the Cameron deal to get some comps. The economy is obviously effecting the movement and salaries of FAs.
But ultimately, JD has to take responsibility for the outcome.
At any time, he could have 'said Uncle', and just negociated with the Yanks for the best deal to be had. Since the Yanks offered 2/$14, he could have asked for 1/$8m with a mutual option for $6m. Or peformance bonuses.
It's a shame. I see JD as a good guy, kinda naive and maybe easy to manipulate? When Boris aked for 3/$39, did Johnny think that 'maybe there was a chance'?
I still say JD should call Cashman and see if a 1 yr deal is available. Unless he shits the bed in 2010, he can probably get some kind of 1 year deal next year, with somebody.
Could the Mets use JD?
[1]
*Could the Mets use JD?*
==================
On offense? Hell yes. The rotting carcasses of Sheffield, Tatis and Francoeur demand it. Though his pokey YS homers would end up being caught in deep right. He COULD be a doubles machine if he goes to the opposite field a lot.
On defense .... CitiField is as cavernous in the OF as Yankee Stadium is in left-center. Jose Reyes would be very busy running out to short LF to get JD's throws.
[1] "Well… Boris is hired and paid well to do a job, and in this case he has failed badly. "
While this makes for a good story, we don't know if he has failed because we have yet to see where Damon ends up and for how much. And even then we will never know for sure who "won" or "lost". Why do you take at face value Damon's claim that he wants to be in NY? I mean, wouldn't it of course serve him in negotiations to say such thing? Wouldn't it drive up his value to other teams, who might feel compelled to up their offers?
Looks like Cashman inquired about Carlos Zambrano, but the asking price was too much. It's an interesting idea, which makes me wonder how many others Cashman has.
[4]
Zambrano as a DH . . . . I could see that! :-)
(c'mon Cash, you just KNOW Big Z's arm is about to fall off, and his WHIP has been trending the wrong way for a while now)
[5] He's only 28...if the Cubs wanted to sell low, he'd be worth a shot. His K rate is still pretty high and his WHIP is mostly attributable to his walks, which could be corrected.
I think the JD story, still playing out, is really interesting. For one thing, it shows how, in a bad economy and a limited market (of buyers) time plays a huge role. Cashman might actually have preferred Damon at, say 18/2 with the 2nd year mainly DHing (he'd hope). But he had a hole to fill once Matsui left (and the Matsui story is also about timing, it seems, in part). NJ is cheaper than Damon, offers comparable value (health, health, I know, but Damon's health was also a worry and so was drop-off), and Cash/Girardi/and co. may have decided (again) that one of LecheGard would deliver, or a juggled combo of the two.
I'm down, as I've said, with the latter point ... a 9th hitter most days of Melky or Brett is perfectly okay in this lineup.
But if JD/Boris had said 18 is cool for 2, early enough, he'd be a Yankee now and we'd be muttering about left field throws and exciting circlings under fly balls - but feeling pretty good about the #2 hole. Or he'd be DHing a lot. I think the Mets now know that they are the only players for Bay, and would be idiots to up their offer to 5 years. I suspect Holliday will get his 5, but it actually might not happen, either.
[6] 28 is late to start correcting control ... it can happen, but that's a late start.
[3] "Why do you take at face value Damon’s claim that he wants to be in NY?I"
Aside from the fact that he has publically stated it may times?
And that these statement do NOT help his bargaining position....
And that after 4 years, he seems both comfortable and happy here....
And that it's obvious that YSIII inflates his stats....
And that he was a WS winner this year with the Yankees...
And that he may well be a WS winner next year with the Yankees...
And that "Don't talk if it's not 3/$39m" has come down to 2/$20m?
Really MP.... are you just trying to be argumentative?
WILLIAM! Please say something that gives MP legitimate grounds for an argument.
Does ANYONE here thinks JD WANTS to play elsewhere????
I'll ask again: Do you guys want JD back at 1/$8m?
Since 1984, only 11 other pitchers had as many IP by age 28 as Zambrano has ...
But its a pretty talented group
http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/eWweh
[8] He's recorded BB/9 rates in the mid-3s before, which is plenty good for a pitcher with his stuff.
[9] You are doing a good job all by yourself.
For some perspective, Damon said he wanted to end his career in Boston and could never play for the Yankees. I think that answers all your questions.
[9] i wouldn't take a player who got boras as his agent and went from team to team his entire career at his word when he says how much he wants to stay with his current team. you gave some reasons why he would want to stay with the yankees, but they don't prove that he really does, and many can apply to any number of teams.
[10] no because i don't think he's an outfielder.
[15] Not even as an alternative/platoon with Melky?
[16] don't they both hit righties better than lefties? melky was slightly better against lefties last year, but has been better against righties in his career.
but anyway, i really don't want to see damon playing left field ever again. he hasn't been a good fielder for about 5 years. can't we spend money on a real outfielder, if we need one?
How much different would the Yankees have been if Elliot Maddox had not hurt his knee at Shea. Then again, how different would they have been if The Mick hadn't hurt his. Maddox would have been one of the best CFers ever. Then they dissed him and dismissed his lawsuit.
Bad luck during the 70's. Think of the pitchers who didn't make it. To Stieneys credit during the period, he didn't lack for effort, except with managers, especially Billy. Gullet, Messersmith, Vida Blue, Holtzman. Remind me. Who else.
Some interesting thoughts on JD
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/dan_shaughnessy/12/21/damon/
[1] seems like boras' commission is 5% based on a google search (some agents get up to 10%).
i feel damon would like to be back with the yankees at the right price and circumstances but he would be okay with moving on too.
i do not begrudge any athlete if they want to take the highest money.
oyf you keep wanting these guys to take less money - why should they?
they are not making their money off someone else's labor - it is their own labor power that gets them their money.
[18]
Vida Blue???
Yankee SPs, by games started, 1970-1979
http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/vFXJx
[9] How does saying he wants to play for the Yankees hurt his bargaining position, really? No one expects any player to take a discount, especially not one whose agent is Boras. If he says he doesn't want to play for NY, he cuts off his (potentially) biggest bidder. I guess he could play it coy and not say one way or another. But by saying that he wants to come back to such a great organization he has, in my opinion, only attempted to stir up interest from that organization (in a tough FA environment with a team that seems to be willing to play hardball). Moreover, NY is probably the only organization that would give him the multi-year commitment that he wants...it's totally worth it for him to try to get the team to perk up and listen. Also, if a team in need of a LF and/or DH (Red Sox?, Angels?) think that the Yankees are in the running, they might bump up their offers. Finally, he has moral cover should he sign elsewhere, since some fans (like you?) will actually believe his interviews when he sighs and claims that he would have played for the Yanks if only THEY didn't shut the door ("I am not a mercenary!").
Really, his posturing about wanting to stay with the Yankees sounds a little too much like his posturing about staying with the Red Sox four years ago [13].
Does ANYONE here thinks JD WANTS to play elsewhere????
He *wants* to play where he gets the best deal. He knows now he can't get the Yankees to bid against themselves for 3/36 (or whatever), so he's dropped down to 2/20. One of these days he'll hit the magic numbers for either the Yanks or someone else.
==
In any case, my original point is that you (or I) cannot determine that Boras has failed his client, because we don't know yet what deal he will end up with, On the other thread you alluded to Damon "pulling an A-Rod," by which (I think) you meant that he would come crawling back to organization. You would, I think, paint that situation as another Boras failure.
But of course, A-Rod caved in to the tune of a mammoth extension. He got what he wanted, so perhaps Boras did his job after all. We'll see with Damon.
[10] I would take him back at any price the Yankees can afford if it is for one year. And I would have no problem (well, little problem) covering my eyes and putting him in the OF 100 times.
[21] Vida almost happened, but Bowie Kuhn negated the sale/trade
[22] It should be noted that Rodriguez negotiated with the Steinbrothers; had Cashman handled the negotiation, I don't think Rodriguez would've gotten that mammoth extension.
[25] C'est vrai, as they say up here. Cashman does seem to be handling things a little differently, from what we can see on the outside looking in.
[24]
ah yes ... now I remember ...
[22] I guess he could play it coy and not say one way or another.
Yeah that's the way it's generally done, I'd say.
[27] you should also remember that today is Frank Zappa's Birthday!!!!!! : )
[29]
and Chris Evert, Kiefer Sutherland and Joe Paterno ...
[28] Is it? Players (or their agents) do seem awfully willing to let slip that many teams are interested, and they rarely exclude the possibility of playing for a given team...and they always seem interested in keeping the Yankees in the mix.
I would think that any such statements depend on circumstances. In this particular case, I just don't see how Damon claiming that he wants to come back to the Yankees in any way hurts his bargaining position (implied at [9]).
[31] monkey, I've been agreeing with you a lot, but here I'm on the other side. In a bargaining situation, it is not generally smart to alert potential suitors that after all their efforts and energy and time, you may go less than full value because you prefer one suitor to all others. You can be seen as using the others to drive up price for the loved one. Normally, it is true, in baseball today, people use a Yankee looming threat to push OTHERS up, but that's not by way of saying 'I want Yankees' it comes through saying 'Yankees want me!' And that can backfire, too.
If you are trying to generate widespread interest and a bidding war, you do not put your heart on your sleeve before the dance, or during it. (Mixed metaphor alert!) It becomes academic by now because, more I think about it, more it seems NY just didn't want JD in left enough. Once DH is closed off (NJ Health Dolls on sale anywhere?) Damon's value dropped a ton. For us. I also think he's joined the better-suited-to-AL club, as he may well be best as a DH, if not now, then next year.
[31] Whether it's accurate or not, they seem to think it's tipping your hand if you show any strong preference. I'm not quite sure why doing so is such a big deal, maybe you're right. Could be a case of conventional wisdom being wrong.
[31] One obvious way it could hurt his bargaining position is that it could lead to the reasonable assumption from other GMs that if they make him an offer he will shop it to the Yanks for a match before he commits. Given that those GMs know the Yanks in fact can match or beat any offer they make, and that negotiating with him involves an extra step, those GMs may choose to focus most of their efforts on acquiring an OF elsewhere given that there are (and were, e.g., Abreu) other comparable players available. That focus on the easier (and more commercially reasonable) targets leads those teams to fill their holes earlier and shainks the market for Johnny.
Indeed, that scenario is close to my understanding of what has happened. It may be a little premature to say Boras has failed, but I think we will all be surprised if Johnny still gets to go where he purports to want to go or if he gets anyhing close to what he asked for to start.
On a broader level, I think this year shows there is indeed a bona fide FA market in MLB -- one that works both ways.
[32] You may be right...we would need to know the exact chronology of when JD started making public statements about his desire to stay with the Yankees. OYF says he had said so numerous times, but I only remember him speaking so openly (outside of the general statements about an openness to stay, which every FA makes) AFTER the NJ deal came down.
At that point, everyone was writing that the door was closed on JD. In those circumstances, it made complete sense for JD to start a public campaign ("I really wanted to stay...what a great organization...I want to end my career with the Yankees..."). He's trying to get the Yankees BACK into the bidding, or at least back into the picture. Maybe he gets some club to think (hey, he's willing to go 2 years at only 16 million or whatever for the Yankees, maybe we can get him at 2/20 or maybe we get him by offering a third year.
Now of course, if JD was making all kinds of statements before the NJ deal came down, then I would have to re-think my position.
Can someone help with the chronology?
FWIW, Johnny's reaction after the Granderson deal (December 10)
This doesn't sound like much of a statement, or tipping his hand. He basically says "Sure, I like to play in NY, but I'm sitting pretty now and I'll help whatever team signs me." Indeed, the rest of the article (http://tinyurl.com/ydl7ufb) paints Johnny as pretty nonchalant and definitely unwilling to give the Yankees a discount.
Only when NJ was signed, then suddenly we hear about Johnny's love affair with NY. Yep, the more I think about it, the more I think he (or Boras) are just trying to get the Yankees back in the picture to boost his value, which clearly has taken a beating over the last two weeks.
[36] That's not a very good example to use. Well it is to make your point, hahaha. But he was already in a bit of a defensive crouch there, reacting to Granderson. He's talked about staying with the Yanks more than once before that.
[36] i'll look for the links later mp, but i know toward the end of the regular season and after the ws damon did say he loved being a yankee and would like to come back
I think Damon's words are essentially irrelevant because of the man he employs as his agent. It's kind of like extending a hand of peace, while holding a bazooka in the other.
If any team is foolish enough to think they are going to get a discount from Boras, they haven't been paying attention. Damon can declare his love for the Yankees all he wants, but actions speak louder than words, especially in Damon's case because this scenario has already played out with him.
[37] I did some searching...here's a much earlier article (http://tinyurl.com/yj5w77l) that suggests his desire to stay in NY is (was) well known, but also that he was never willing to give any sort of discount. Again, I'm not saying any of these are gospel truth. I do think, however, that we need to look carefully at the specific circumstances/chronology of JD's statements.
You are correct, though, that he seems to have made his desire to stay in NY known.
[38] He definitely said that...but he also said he loved being a Red Sox and could never play with the Yankees...until they offered him the highest deal.
[30] ah, JoePa - coolio! i'm a Penn State alum!!! : ) ...and I LOVED the Lost Boys as a kid.
today is 12-21, which is the inverse of 2112 - i thought you'd dig that! : )
Frank Zappa on 12-21, Tony Williams on 12-12
[41] oh yes, definitely agree. just trying to show the chronology of his statements - i don't think there is that much credence to them, but i don't really care either.
there has got to be something more interesting to discuss than whether and when damon really wanted to stay with the yankees.
[4] like this. personally i'm glad the cubs' asking price was too high. i like zambrano and think he could rebound from the downward trends cited in [5], but i'm not sure that that rebound would be enough in the al east. i also don't think we should make a habit of collecting fat pitchers.
i've said before that i think we should sign sheets, but now i'm thinking we should just get wang back. it would be nice to have a little more pitching depth, but not if it means putting either joba or phil back into the bullpen to start the season.
[44] One of the joys of winning a World Series…you get to debate trivial matters instead of things like the Yankees never being able to win with a “choker like Arod”.
It seems like Hughes is going back to the pen regardless. Also, there is no guarantee Wang and even Sheets will be ready for the start of the season. I think the Yankees need, and Cashman is exploring more certainty.
[44]
If we collected all three, then we'd be "Z Sheets to the Wang" :-)
(yes, I need some sleep)
RAB has a new statiscally take on the 'Posada vs. Molina' debate.
Very interesting.
Excellent argument material.
Get out your calculators.
[45] why do you say that about hughes, because of the innings limitation? i envisioned something similar to joba's 09, with hughes starting in the rotation and then having some sort of limitation towards the end (though hopefully one that makes a little more sense than joba's). it obviously makes sense for the yankees to pursue more depth, but what certainty is there available? none of the injured pitchers are certain, and i'd prefer joba and hughes to the lesser available pitchers.
Our old friend Pete Abe on JD:
http://ow.ly/16bZnk
Be advised: The players are adults who make their own decisions. While it's easy (and even fun) to demonize agents, the agent works for the player. His job is to present the player with the opportunities that are available and let the player make a decision.
Damon didn't hire Boras because he wanted to make nice, clean deals with teams. He hired Scott because he wanted to wring every dime out of his athletic ability, which is certainly his right.
[41] Now what I want to see is a link for Damon saying he'd never play for the Yankees.
...
Anyway, I do think that pride/saving face started to factor in with Damon's statements. Once signs appeared that he may not be coming back - ie Granderson's arrival, then Johnson - he equivocated a bit more.
[36] Wow... you left out part of the quote!
[36] FYI August 16, 2009
Damon: "I just can't picture myself in another place.''
By PETE CALDERA
Staff Writer
He’d like nothing better than to celebrate his birthday week rolling up the Canyon of Heroes with his Yankees teammates. But there’s one more Damon wish: A 2010 season in pinstripes.
“I would love to be able to play with this group of guys, at least another year,’’ said Damon, whose contract expires at the end of this season.
“There will be teams (interested),’’ he said. But, “I just can’t picture myself in another place, or want to. This is the team I want to be on.’’
“We not only have guys who get a long, but this is the most fun I’ve had with players on and off the field,’’ Damon said. “It’s great – I feel like a young player again
[51] You got me!
Just to pick up on the Vida Blue thing, the Yankees actually acquired Blue in a straight cash deal from the Oakland A's just before the trading deadline on June 15, 1976. At the same time, the Red Sox also acquired Joe Rudi and Rollie Fingers from the Red Sox in cash deals.
The deals were announced, but Commissioner Bowie Kuhn stepped in and voided the deals because "they were not in the best interests of baseball." He then put in a rule that said no more than $400,000 could be included in any baseball transaction. As I recall, the Yankees had agreed to pay the A's $1 million for Blue.
If the deal had been allowed, the Yankee rotation would have been Guidry, Hunter, Blue, and Figueroa--whoo, damn good! It probably would not have mattered a bit in the World Series, since the Yankees were swept by the Reds, but it would have been a fun rotation to watch.
Blue was a terrific pitcher, still near the prime of his career, with a great fastball and crackling curveball. He did, however, have drug problems that eventually caught up with him in the 1980s.
The RAB stuff is so fascinating, and counterintuitive (that's why it is fascinating) I am waiting for our Number Gurus to respond. Essentially it suggests that Po is better as our DH and Molina is worth a ton as catcher. Where was that data when we were trying to defend (some of us were) the Molina/AJ tandem?
I am NOT buying it, by the way, because that requires understanding the numbers (and believing defensive numbers can work). But the sample size on the main era stats was considerable.
The link is here:
http://riveraveblues.com/2009/12/a-somewhat-informed-look-at-posada-vs-molina-21517/
[55] The single largest contributor is the RSA (extrapolated from OPS against) when Posada is catching v. Molina. But despite the large sample size, this is somewhat bogus: one would have to look at what pitchers each was throwing to. RAB compared how Posada and Molina did against the league average, and I'm not sure that works.
What was interesting to me what how little things like blocking balls in the dirt or the running game mattered (for example, both Posada and Molina were below average in blocking balls, according to their data). So all of the hand-wringing about PBs and SBs is basically unnecessary.
I'll have to dig into the bigger factor---the offense against---when (if) I have more time.
[55] Also interesting is this conclusion about the offense against:
That means Posada’s “game calling” was worth 17.15 runs below average during that time, while Molina’s was worth 100.57 runs above average.
So basically, over three years Posada was more or less an average game caller (if we accept their premise and data). he is not the disastrous game call that he is made out be. Rather, Molina is apparently some sort of pitcher-whisperer who can make any hurler much, much better. If one accepts that, then Molina should be the starter on that fact alone, regardless of Posada's supposed defensive shortcomings.
I think having Boras as an agent is a good thing when you are one of the most sought after players and it hinders a deal if you aren't one of the elite. No GM's like dealing with him. And JD is no longer elite. Boras trying to squeez every last nickel out of someone for a player that is past his prime is a tough sell. It is an agents job to get top dollar, but Boras is ruthless.
Boras was very lucky that the Yanks let him off the hook with Arod. They could have made him look like a total ass. I think it was more for Arods pride that they sweetened a deal after he opted out thinking there would be lots of suitors.
This year's FA class is not that strong. Holliday and Bay will still probably bring in big dollars, but in this economy, it probably won't be huge, and will in all likelihood be a lot less than Teixera. (And rightfully so, since neither is of his caliber).
That said, Johnny might still get the $ he was looking for. If teams sign Bay and Holliday and a team like the Mets are left out, they might overpay for Damon just to have something to show for this winter. He might also end up in San Fran? Hell, the Nationals are always looking to overpay for someone mediocre, and Damon is still pretty good. He might make 100 mil over 10 years in Washington?
The Yanks tough stand on Damon might also have more to do with next year. They will be trying to decide how much Mo and Jeter get re-signed for. If they gave Damon 10 or 13 mil a year what do they give Jetes and Mo?
The Yanks still need another arm, but I am glad they did not overpay for Lackey. Next year they might be able to add Cliff Lee? You think Lee and CC wouldn't love to pitch in the same rotation again? The money they are saving now on Nick Johnson and Granderson can go right into Lee's, Jeter's and Mo's pockets.
[55] The biggest problem with this data is it isn't random. Without delving into the game logs, my impression is that Molina caught more starts by the better pitchers. Of course, it would make sense for that to be the case because you wouldn't want to sit Posada's bat when you might most need the offense. Also, Posada was probably more likely to play against better teams (i.e., better opposing lineups). There are probably other examples of bias that I am not mentioning, so while amusing, I don't think the analysis mounts to much.