Now that the Red Sox, Braves, Dodgers, and Reds (all teams I picked to make the playoffs this year) are ascendant, there are just two teams whose performances escape my understanding. One is the San Diego Padres, who continue to have the best record in the National League thanks to a wildly overperforming starting rotation and despite almost no contribution from their offense. The other is the Toronto Blue Jays, who are tied with the Red Sox with the fourth-best record in the American League thanks to a homer-happy offense that leads the majors in dingers having tagged 20 percent more taters than the second-place Bosox. The Blue Jays also lead the majors in slugging with a remarkable .474 team mark, but are fourth-worst in on-base percentage, second only to the Diamondbacks in strikeouts, and their pitching has been merely average.
If that’s not confusing enough, here are the Jays’ top home run hitters this year:
16 – Jose Bautista
13 – Vernon Wells
11 – Alex Gonzalez
Huh? Bautista’s 16 homers lead the majors; they also tie his previous career high set in 2006. Wells averaged just 17 taters the last three years, and Alex Gonzalez averaged just 13 in his six full seasons from 2003 to 2009 (he missed 2008 due to a knee injury). Wells has hit 30 homers twice before, but while Bautista and Gonzalez are both known to have some pop, they’ve both far exceeded their previous propensity for power.
I might have understood if the Jays were winning with starting pitching. Shaun Marcum is back from a season and a half lost to Tommy John surgery and pitching like a front-of-the-rotation horse. Ricky Romero, who faces Andy Pettitte on Saturday afternoon, is building on his strong rookie performance from a year ago, and Brandon Morrow, the former Mariners prospect acquired in an offseason swap for Brandon League and right-field prospect Johermyn Chavez and who faces Javy Vazquez on Sunday, has tremendous stuff, as the Yankees saw first hand when he pitched 7 2/3 no-hit innings against them in late 2008. Yet, Morrow has been erratic, and after Marcum and Romero, the pitching staff has been largely mediocre.
I suppose the good news for the Jays is that while Bautista and Gonzalez have been going yard, their young offensive core of Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, and Travis Snider have been scuffling and/or injured. That suggests that once the early-season flukes fade (which seems to already be happening), the Jays will still have the bats to keep the offense afloat. Still, even with those that young core producing, the Jays weren’t really supposed to be good this year (as I thought I made clear in my essay on the team in Baseball Prospectus 2010).
The Jays have gotten fat on the Orioles and Indians (9-0), but then so have the Yankees (11-2). Perhaps it’s more telling that Toronto is 3-9 against the Rays and Red Sox and have yet to face the Yankees. That ends this weekend as the Yanks arrive in Toronto for a three-game set. Things kick off tonight with A.J. Burnett facing sophomore lefty Brett Cecil. Burnett had two quality starts against his old team in the Bronx last year, but lost his one start in Toronto. In his career, he’s 22-9 with a 3.83 ERA with 290 strikeouts in 270 innings pitched at the Rogers Centre, most of them with the Jays behind him rather than in front of him.
Cecil was the Jays’ top pitching prospect heading into last year, but in that organization that’s not a huge compliment. He was erratic as a rookie last year and started this year in the minors, joining the rotation at the end of April. Toss out his one big stinker against the Rangers on May 14 and he’s been solid thus far, going 5-2 with a 2.45 ERA in his other seven starts. In his last three, he has averaged roughly 7 1/3 innings while posting a 1.66 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP, winning all three games.
Marcus Thames starts in left against the lefty Cecil, giving Brett Gardner a day off. Chad Moeller catches Burnett, giving Francisco Cervelli a breather. Jorge Posada is the DH again.
Toronto Blue Jays
2010 Record: 15-36 (.294)
2010 Pythagorean Record: 17-34 (.333)
2009 Record: 75-87 (.463)
2009 Pythagorean Record: 84-78 (.519)
Manager: Cito Gaston
General Manager: Alex Anthopoulos
Home Ballpark: Rogers Centre
Bill James Park Indexes (2007-2009):
LH Avg-104, LH HR-115
RH Avg-107, RH HR-129
Who’s Replaces Whom:
- Alex Gonzalez replaces Marco Scutaro
- Edwin Encarnacion takes over Scott Rolen’s playing time
- Fred Lewis replaces Alex Rios
- John Buck replaces Rod Barajas
- Jose Molina replaces Raul Chavez
- Jeremy Reed replaces Kevin Millar
- Mike McCoy replaces Randy Ruiz and Joe Inglett
- Shawn Marcum (DL) replaces Roy Halladay
- Brandon Morrow replaces Scott Richmond (DL)
- Kevin Gregg replaces Brandon League
- Rommie Lewis (minors) replaces Jesse Carlson (minors)
25-man roster:
1B – Lyle Overbay (L)
2B – Aaron Hill (R)
SS – Alex Gonzalez (R)
3B – Edwin Encarnacion (R)
C – John Buck (R)
RF – Jose Bautista (R)
CF – Vernon Wells (R)
LF – Fred Lewis (L)
DH – Adam Lind (L)
Bench:
R – Jose Molina (C)
R – John McDonald (IF)
L – Jeremy Reed (OF)
R – Mike McCoy (IF)
Rotation:
R – Shaun Marcum
L – Brett Cecil
L – Ricky Romero
R – Brandon Morrow
L – Brian Tallet
Bullpen:
R – Kevin Gregg
R – Jason Frasor
L – Scott Downs
R – Shawn Camp
R – Casey Janssen
L – Rommie Lewis
L – David Purcey
15-day DL:
OF – Travis Snider (sore right wrist)
60-day DL:
RHP – Dustin McGowan (setbacks after labrum surgery)
RHP – Jesse Litsch (Tommy John surgery)
RHP – Scott Richmond (shoulder impingement)
RHP – Dirk Hayhurst (frayed right labrum)
Typical Lineup:
L – Fred Lewis (LF)
R – Aaron Hill (2B)
L – Adam Lind (DH)
R – Vernon Wells (CF)
R – Jose Bautista (RF)
R – Alex Gonzalez (SS)
L – Lyle Overbay (1B)
R – John Buck (C)
R – Edwin Encarnacion (3B)
Hm, I think I'd rather have Posada catching, Thames DHing, and Brett in the OF.
I know it gives away backstop defense, but you get (some of?) that back in LF defense, and the lineup would be better.
Cliff, for some reason I'd thought that the Jays were out-performing their pythagorean estimate, but they aren't. They're underperforming by maybe a game.
Hm, I think I’d rather have Posada catching, Thames DHing, and Brett in the OF.
I know it gives away backstop defense, but you get (some of?) that back in LF defense, and the lineup would be better.
Posada hasn't been cleared to catch yet.
Wow, this fairly big news
I really like Eiland as a pitching coach, so I hope everything works out ok for him with whatever is going on ...
I was really surprised to see the Jays had the most home runs in MLB - by a huge margin.
[3] Cross my fingers hoping everything turns out well.
Good to see we're making Cecil work ...
Good AB.
Who are these announcers?
Oh, Teix, this is just getting UGLY ...
[3] I hate to speculate, but I wonder if Eiland's leave absence has anything to do with Canada's new tighter immigration laws. Basically, even a crime committed as a child has caused delayed entry, not to mention embarrassment when the transgression has been revealed.
Curtis!
Mr. UZR!
Nice catch!
THE GRANDYMAN CAN!!!!
I don't think Gardner would have gotten that one. Too short. :-)
That ball was hit over 400'. 3 inches higher and it's extra bases instead of an out.
[7] bob lorenz and flash.
[9] i wonder if that is why mk never goes to canada.
[16] Does he really never go? I never noticed that.
I already don't like Lorenz. Why isn't Singleton doing play by play? YES does everything great except team its announcers.
Some ugly ABs so far...Cecil's soft tossing, strike throwing approach could be tough for the Yankees.
Any way to fly in the Indians bullpen of Orioles starters?
[17] i don't get it either - kenny does pbp quite well.
never might be an exaggeration, but i can't recall him doing games in toronto.
[16] Thanks.
[9] Has Canada's laws changed since last year? Eiland did go last year, and as the Clipper's coach when there was a team in Ottawa.
Crud.
Well, that's number 17 ...
Bautista again? Good gravy.
Ridiculous...you really can't throw the ball down the middle to this team.
jesus christ that was smashed - i'm with you cliff, where the hell did this come from?
EVening, Team!
Don't take this the wrong way, but "oh, joy!" Did one of mk's loved ones suddenly die?
How do you say Hgh in French?
[25] Canadian homers are worth less?
[26] mk rarely makes the trip to canada.
that is the good.
the bad is we are getting bob lorenz for pbp instead of kenny.
[20] Yes...they have started cracking down recently. Basically, if you've ever committed a crime, they recommend you get get pre-approval before coming.
Just recently Adam Jones was detained for hours because his records were confused with Pacman Jones.
[29] Is that true? Really? Wow. I've never noticed that before.
He a fugitive or something?
alright team let's try to put together a representative ab against cecil.
[31] haha maybe...i am acutely aware of a lack of mk
There ya go Tims!
ah leave it to tims to do something against the lefty.
[31] The crime of bad announcing.
[30] I knew they had done it at some point, just not how long ago. I did go to Windsor a few years ago -- it took longer to get back into the US than to get into Canada -- more questions & inspection. Same as when I went to Vancouver in 1994.
I wish Brett were playing. He'd know what to do.
Chad Moeller is awful.
[37]
Let's just call him "Impacted"
[38] Catchers do have wisdom.
Hm, I guess Trembley wasn't the problem in Baltimore. Go figure.
he's nothing special, and i'd definitely prefer singleton, but i dont mind lorenz at all
[40] After watching Juan Samuel wave Miguel Tejada into a out at home down 8-1 late in the game on Wednesday, I didn't figure they were going to be picking up much in the exchange ...
[42] Hey, that's right, I forgot that was Samuel. Or anyway, I didn't connect "guy who sent Tejada" with "guy who takes over for Trembley".
hey everyone
Anyone know where to pull an *online* report on pitch f/x data? I need year 2010 broken out by pitch type.
I want Cecil to somehow be related to THIS man
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jacobbe01.shtml
[45] This doesn't sound like exactly what you're looking for, but maybe it will help.
[45] Not sure where to find aggregate data, but are you interested in game by game?
That sir is some bad luck.
[46] Wow. You don't find a lot of players named "Beanie" nowadays. I wonder why that is. Wait...
Oh, I get it!
FUCK.
They must know the change is coming, but still can't hit it. Impressive pitch.
That may have been the best chance off Cecil.
[47] Tried that, seems to be a dataset that isn't current (Brett Cecil isn't a choice in the dropdown, but Roger Clemens is).
[48] No, I wanted to see 2010 aggregated.
I know there are mySQL datasets I can download and I suppose I'll do that tomorrow, I was just curious about something tonite and wanted to see the numbers broken out.
Oh well, I guess I've got myself a small project for the next few weeks ...
This is a good you pitcher.
[52] It's been a long time coming...
[54] The link below had an aggregate snap shot from earlier in the season:
http://captnsblog.wordpress.com/2010/05/13/inside-the-numbers-pitch-based-performance-of-yankees-lineup/
[57] Click on the Pavlidis article.
Burnett had time to make that play, I think.
This is unreal.
That is the definition of stupidity.
[59] bottom english on that ball?
Nice little utility player indeed.
Holy shit.
Who the HELL is Jose Batista?
What could possibly possess Burnett to make the same exact mistake twice?
[66] Dude, it's AJ ... you're asking about what he was thinking?
What we've learned tonight is Jose Bautista can mash a fastball down the middle in a hitter's count.
That's really not impressive....at least not as much as Burnett's arrogance.
I think I'll go watch tennis now.
Later.
Now he doesn't give in???
Good thing Baltimore is next on the schedule again.
You just have to accept this with AJ.
[57] Thanks. I think for what I wanted to see, I'll have to pull the datasets and write my own queries and reports locally.
Although, since what I need isn't available online, I might have myself a decent project to freshen up my web reporting skills, which I've sorted need for a while ...
Jose 3
AJ 0
With JV in line, this is not good news so far.
It is almost time to start talking about ARod not putting the ball in the air with authority?
[75] No.
I'll take a hard hit ball, regardless of up or down,every time in that situation.
Sometimes, ya eat the bar; sometimes, the bar eats you ...
Watching the Tigger's game, Rusty Kuntz is back with KC.
Meh.
[77] I believe they have a shot that cures that now ...
Burnett really isn't a very intelligent man.
Sigh.
Still, a salami ties it up.
FUCKING'AJ!
Well, at least Thames isn't being exposed in LF ...
Uh, only 2 Curtis, only 2 ...
And Javy on Sunday? Let's hope Andy gets a W tomorrow.
[85] Javy might actually workout well...he is a righty with very good off speed as well as an idea how to pitch. The Jays seem like a team that feasts on throwers like AJ.
FUZZY Moeller with the "double"!!!
OK...if anything can be considered a good omen, it's a Moeller hit.
Toothache comes through.
That was a lousy play by the "gold glover" Vernon Wells ...
Ha! Never underestimate the Moeller!
C'mon Stick, cash this in here ...
Now a bloop...karma.
Franconas 7, Samuels 0 .... 4th inning
Ah .... on-the-field pick-up mics ...
Uh, thanks Nick ...
Crappy exchange
Oh Swish...Cecil is pitching very well, but it would be nice if someone would make an adjustment.
FUCK!
Flip ... and ... I'm out to get more booze ...
Ice Road Truckers .... series cancelled due to Global Warming ...
Hey....AJ finally learned!
It's time for AJ to take a shower.
If Posada isn't going to catch for a while, the Yankees need a new BUC.
Also, how wise was it for Girardi to use Moeller with Burnett? Could he have picked a more difficult pitcher to catch?
Did anyone really expect us to win tonight?
Blue Jays are good hitters, it's inconsistent AJ and Chad's catching.
[105] Well, it's not like Cervelli's been much help recently ...
That would have been nice last AB.
Nice, Alex!
[105] I'm not shocked that we're losing, but yes, I did think we could win. As Cliff points out up top, the Jays are a strange team. First in slugging but almost last in OBP? Gonzalez and Bautista among their top sluggers? Encarnacion with 8 homers as a part time player? It just doesn't seem like it's for real.
[106] From RAB today:
[110] Oh and he's thrown out a grand total of 2 out of 20 base stealers ...
[110] In Cervelli's defense, playing so much has probably worn him down somewhat.
Well, lousy game for Robbie tonite ...
If Cano can't have one good AB, then you know Cecil is pitching well.
[112] Well, Frankie's 24. If he can't catch that number of games (over a single *month* [more or less]), he likely doesn't have the capacity to be a starting catcher, regardless of any concerns over talent or current ability.
Meanwhile, it's MeatTray time ...
[115] I don't know...catching 10 days in a row has to be rough, even for a 24 year old.
[114] Yup. And every team wins 50 (except for the 2010 Orioles) and every team loses 50 (except the 1998 Yankees), I figured tonight was going to be one of the 50 losses, as AJ is inconsistent & some regulars are getting rest. In some ways, it may be better to bunch your regulars' rest to one game, not conceding the game but not having the optimal lineup so that you can have an optimal lineup more often.
[117] This is one of those losses you cant get upset about. Cecil was on his game and he also had some lucky. The only regret is really the second fastball down the middle to Bautista, but it's not like that decided the game.
I don’t know…catching 10 days in a row has to be rough, even for a 24 year old.
I agree in theory; though, since Cervelli *hasn't* caught 10 days in a row this year, I'd say it remains a just that, a theoretical matter of conjecture ...
[119] According to B-R.com, he DID catch 10 games in a row (May 17-27).
[120] Games aren't days. He didn't catch on May 24th.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?n1=cervefr01&t=b&year=2010
[121] 10 days/10 games over 11 days (and 16 games over 18 days)...I think the point still stands. That is a very heavy workload for a catcher.
Well at least it stayed in the yard this time.
Bautista is clearly a witch. May we burn him?
Thames!
[124] Does he weight as much as a duck?
take THAT you wikkin fucker!
[122] Is it? I'm not being snarky here, I actually wonder how unusual that is for a 24 year old front line starting catcher.
Randomly, I went back to Joe Mauer's 24 year old season back in 2007. After losing a full *month* to injury, Mauer came back and played 17 games out of 18 days (June 12 through 29), fully 15 of them at catcher (2 at DH).
I don't think it's that unusual at that age, though I'm certainly willing to look at a statistical analysis of the question and change my mind ...
Well at least I got bills paid, check book caught up and the desk cleaned up tonight.
Shall we start calling him Sergio Meat-K???
Well, it ain't a Swisher at bat if it doesn't go 3-2 ... in *this* case, it isn't a Swisher at bat if it doesn't go 4-2 ...
Well, that was coming from a long way aways ...
Ah well, I suspect we are seeing the beginnings of the reemergence of the Blue Jays.
Good night all.
[128] I'll see if I can crunch some numbers. However, in the sample you observed, Mauer was the DH four times.
John Wooden has passed away. RIP Wizard.
[134] GAH! You're right. And even worse, he was a PH *another* time.
Alcohol is *neither* math's nor logic's BFF.
I'm curious about the numbers though, what would you say the criteria should be?
Age 24 only? Age 23-25 maybe? If we go with 18 days for the total (for Frankie's sake) how many "games played"? 17/18 games/days (at least 16 games at catcher)?
And then what? OPS over the initial 18 days vs OPS in the following 18 days? Rolling?
I can probably run anything we come up with, but this sure seems like a matter of deciding on how to slice and dice a question ...
[136] For starters, I'd just be interested in how many catchers have played 10 straight games over the past 2 years.
[137] Alright, let me start with that ... I'll be in touch in a thread.
[137] 10 games/ 10 days? Or just 10 games in a row?
Oh, and does "played" means caught (only) or played (at any position)?
[139] 10 games in a row, at least 3 PAs/game.
[140] Caught only
[141][142] Ok. Let me see what I can do (it will likely take a day or two) ...
[143] Thanks. I thought B-R's play index would be able to do it, but it's really not that powerful.