The Blue Jays fell well short of their Pythagorean expectations in 2005 and made a number of splashy moves in the offseason, leading many to believe that they had thrust themselves into the thick of the AL East race for 2006. I have to say, I just don’t see it.

Part of the reason is that I expect regression from new additions Overbay (who will miss Miller Park), Molina (who had a rather obvious career year in 2005) and Ryan (who’s mechanics and disposition scream implosion to me), as well as from the returning members of the Toronto bullpen, all of whom, save perhaps 27-year-old Jason Frasor, pitched over their heads in 2006.

In addition to their normal regression, the relievers will be hurt by the loss of Orlando Hudson’s defense, but not nearly as much as the starters, particularly tonight’s starter, Gustavo Chacin, whose solid 2005 ERA just didn’t jive with his unimpressive peripherals, and, much as I hate to say it, returning ace Roy Halladay, who is the most extreme groundball pitcher in the Toronto rotation. The second most groundball-prone Blue Jay starter is A.J. Burnett, which isn’t the greatest news for Toronto fans already coping with the fact that A.J. has as many DL stays as starts thus far this year.

Toronto Blue Jays

2005 Record: 80-82
2005 Pythagorean Record: 88-74

Manager: John Gibbons
General Manager: J.P. Riccardi

Home Ballpark (2005 Park Factors): Rogers Centre (102/102)

Who’s Replacing Whom?

• Troy Glaus replaces Corey Koskie and, by way of pushing Aaron Hill to second, some of Orlando Hudson
• Aaron Hill inherits the remainder of Orlando Hudson’s playing time
• Lyle Overbay takes over for Eric Hinske who cuts into Alexis Rios’s playing time
• Bengie Molina replaces Ken Huckaby and Guillermo Quiroz and takes playing time from Gregg Zaun
• John McDonald inherits Frank Menechino’s playing time
• A.J. Burnett replaces David Bush
• Roy Halladay takes back Scott Downs’ starts
• B.J. Ryan replaces Miguel Bautista

Current Roster

1B – Lyle Overbay (L)
2B – Aaron Hill (R)
SS – Russ Adams (L)
3B – Troy Glaus (R)
C – Bengie Molina (R)
RF – Alexis Rios (R)
CF – Vernon Wells (R)
LF – Frank Catalanotto (L)
DH – Shea Hillenbrand (R)

Bench:

R – Reed Johnson (OF)
L – Erik Hinske (UT)
S – Gregg Zaun (C)
R – John McDonald (IF)

Rotation:

R – Roy Halladay
R – A.J. Burnett
R – Josh Towers
L – Gustavo Chacin
L – Ted Lilly

Bullpen:

L – B.J. Ryan
R – Justin Speier
L – Scott Schoeneweis
R – Jason Frasor
R – Vinnie Chulk
R – Pete Walker
L – Scott Downs

Typical Lineup

L – Russ Adams (SS)
L – Frank Catalanotto (LF)
R – Vernon Wells (CF)
R – Troy Glaus (3B)
L – Lyle Overbay (1B)
R – Shea Hillenbrand (DH)
R – Bengie Molina (C)
R – Alexis Rios (RF)
R – Aaron Hill (2B)

Reed Johnson is sure to start against the lefty Johnson tonight while Eric Hinske has been spelling Alexis Rios in right against the occasional righty, much as Gregg Zaun has been doing for Molina behind the plate since returning from the DL. John McDonald is the only Blue Jay hitter who doesn’t make regular starts as not even his spectacular fielding can carry his abysmal bat.