Today’s news is powered by Red Barber and Mel Allen. We lost Allen on this date in 1996:
- Tyler Kepner wonders if the Yanks pitching hiccups are tied to who is behind the plate:
One unsettling fact for the Yankees is the difference when Jorge Posada catches. With Posada behind the plate, the Yankees’ pitchers have a 6.31 E.R.A. The combined E.R.A. with Francisco Cervelli, Jose Molina and Kevin Cash is 3.81.
Posada has caught four starts by Chien-Ming Wang, whose job status is now evaluated on a game-by-game basis. Even removing those starts, the staff’s E.R.A. with Posada is still high, at 5.47. . . .
. . . Burnett, in particular, seems to struggle with him. In Burnett’s four starts pitching to Posada, opponents have batted .330. In nine starts with the other catchers, the average is .223.
When he lost a six-run lead in Boston in April, Burnett questioned the pitch selection, though he blamed himself, not Posada. Asked Sunday about the difference in pitching to the rookie Cervelli, Burnett gave a careful but revealing answer.
“I think it’s just a matter of — I don’t know if it’s the catcher — but we threw curveballs in fastball counts, we had them looking for something and they had no idea what was coming, I don’t think,” Burnett said. “That’s huge.”
[My take: Hmm . . . come 2010, could Cervelli see 100+ games behind the plate, with Posada at DH?]
- Cervelli serves notice:
Cervelli has provided the Yankees with an unexpected spark, after he was summoned from the Minor Leagues to lend a hand as the club waited for the returns of injured catchers Jorge Posada and Jose Molina.
Posada has since reclaimed his starting role, but Molina suffered a setback while on a rehab assignment and re-injured his left quadriceps, extending Cervelli’s big league stay for the foreseeable future.
“Sometimes, for one person to shine, something has to happen to someone else,” Yankees bench coach Tony Pena said recently. “Defensively, Francisco Cervelli is as good as any other catcher. There are very few catchers who can move behind the plate the way Francisco Cervelli moves.”
The Yankees were always high on Cervelli defensively, believing that he at least would project as a big league backup catcher, capable of spelling a starter for an extended period if absolutely necessary.
But Cervelli has exceeded expectations at the plate, especially considering he was batting just .190 at Double-A Trenton when he was called up. Cervelli’s three hits on Sunday raised his batting average to .298 (17-for-57) with two doubles and six RBIs in 19 games.
[My take: I don’t think the league has a “book” on him yet, but he sure doesn’t seem over-matched at the plate to date.]
- Don’t look now, but the bullpen may be getting its act together:
We’re halfway through June, and this is what Aceves, Coke, Hughes and Robertson have done this month: in 23 innings, they have combined to allow 16 hits, nine walks and just five earned runs, with 26 strikeouts.
That’s a 1.96 E.R.A. spread across four setup men, with Bruney now added to the mix.
“Coke has been pitching well, Aceves has done an outstanding job, Robertson’s been nothing short of fantastic, and Hughes has made a nice adjustment to the bullpen for a period of time,” General Manager Brian Cashman said today. “We’ve had to move some pieces around to shore it up, and we’ll continue to do so.”
Jose Veras or Brett Tomko might be dropped to make room for Bruney, and don’t be surprised if Mark Melancon or even Sergio Mitre, who has an excellent sinker, make an impact later this season.
- Let’s get this Marte started (throwing):
Yankees reliever Damaso Marte got the OK from Dr. James Andrews on Monday, and he is set to resume his throwing program at the team’s Minor League complex in Tampa, Fla.
Marte, who was put on the 15-day disabled list on May 3, went to see Andrews in Birmingham, Ala., after team doctors diagnosed him with weakness and tendinitis in his pitching shoulder.
New York announced that Andrews concurred with previous evaluations made by Yankees team physician Dr. Christopher Ahmad as well as Dr. David Altchek.
“They’re not telling him to have surgery, so they’re telling him that they believe he can get back,” Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. “That leads me to believe that he can get back. It’s frustrating, because we’d love to have him and we need him. It’s great to have two lefties in your bullpen.”
- Wanna vent (or compliment) on the Yankees’ recent draft?:
Damon Oppenheimer, senior vice president and scouting director for the Yankees, will chat with fans on Tuesday, June 16 at 2 p.m. ET. Chat with Oppenheimer about how the club did in the 2009 First-Year Player Draft, the top prospects in the Yankees’ farm system and players they should be looking for in the future.
- Here’s the latest Baby Bomber minor league transactions.
- Another catching prospect in the fold:
Kansas University catcher Buck Afenir, who just finished his senior season as a member of the Kansas University baseball team, signed a free agent contract this week with the New York Yankees’ organization.
A catcher from Escondido, Calif., Afenir batted .333 with 10 home runs and 62 RBIs for the Jayhawks last season, helping the team advance to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2006. His 31 career home runs, meanwhile, are tied for second most in program history.
- On this date in 1953, Duane Pillette of the St. Louis Browns ended the Yankees’ win streak at 18 and the Browns’ team record 14-game losing streak with a 3 – 1 victory in Yankee Stadium. Johnny Mize became the 93rd player in major league history to get 2,000 hits when he singled in the only Yankees’ run in the fifth inning.
- On this date in 1962, Mickey Mantle returned after a one-month injury stint and hit a dramatic three-run pinch-hit home run in the top of the eighth inning. Although Mantle’s blast gave the Yankees a 9 – 7 lead, Cleveland came back to score a run in the bottom of the eight and won the game in the ninth, 10 – 9, on a two-run homer by Jerry Kindall.
Damn, I was sticking a comment into the previous thread when this new News ot Day came up.
I was just pointing out that the enthusiasm over Cervelli's hitting is a bit out of joint with his performance. Yeah, he's batting .298. But he's slugging .333, and he has exactly one walk in his MLB career, for a grand total OPS of .644.
Okay, that is admittedly not as bad as David Ortiz (as I rashly asserted in the previous thread), but it's pretty bad.
On the other hand, I do put a lot of stock in Pena's evaluation of Cervelli's defense. Man, there are a lot of catchers in that clubhouse. Posada, Molina, Cervelli, Girardi, Pena...
[1] I was also agreeing with you on the other post...Cervelli's spark is a product of his having a relatively high batting average, as empty as it might be.
Also, I posted the following on the other thread, but perhaps it is more relevant here.
The Jorge excuse is a perennial that seems to pop up when convenient. Of course, the notion that Jorge is a drag on ERA doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.
Going back a bit, in 2000, Posada had a CERA of 4.67, compared to the team ERA of 4.76 (Turner had a CERA of 5.13). In 2001, Posada had a CERA of 3.77, compared to the team ERA of 4.02 (Greene had a CERA of 4.83 and Oliver’s was 5.03). In 2002, Posada had a CERA of 3.78, compared to the team ERA of 3.87 (Widger had a CERA of 4.58 and Castillo’s was 3.93).
From 2003-2005, the Yankees had a stable duo in Flaherty and Posada, so maybe we can find a trend in that range?
In 2003, Posada had a CERA of 4.12, compared to the team ERA of 4.02 (Flaherty had a CERA of 3.72). In 2004, Posada had a CERA of 4.65, compared to the team ERA of 4.69 (Flaherty had a CERA of 4.93). Posada had a CERA of 4.65, compared to the team ERA of 4.52 (Flaherty had a CERA of 4.12).
Considering the small sample for Flaherty (about 25% of the playing time), I think it’s pretty easy to see these outcomes as random. One year, Flaherty had a lower ERA, the next Posada and the third Flaherty again.
More recently, in 2006, Posada had a CERA of 4.36, compared to the team ERA of 4.41 (Fasano had a CERA of 4.78 and Stinnett’s was 4.38). Finally, in 2007, Posada had a CERA of 4.49, compared to the team ERA of 4.49 (Nieves had a CERA of 4.37 and Molina’s was 4.62). In limited time, Posada’s CERA was 4.61, compared to the team at 4.28, Molina at 3.71, Pudge at 5.59 and Moeller at 4.20.
I am sorry, but unless Posada all of sudden forgot how to call a game, using him as an excuse for this staff’s struggles is ridiculous. If we are going to blame Posada because Joba couldn’t pump fastballs past Martinez, Cora, Castillo and Schneider, we might as well just dispense with the charade and just blame that on Arod.
[1] I think that, as much of a spark as Cervelli has provided, one walk in 62 PAs - that's about 10 walks in a season - isn't going to cut it, .298 average or no. When Molina is healthy, Cervelli should be sent to AAA with a very specific goal - work on his plate discipline (perhaps surprising given his career .374 OBP in the minors).
I almost put this in the other thread - I love Tyler Kepner, but the BP guys proved a long time ago that there was nothing to "catcher ERA", or a pitching staff doing better with certain catchers than certain other catchers. I can give the answer Cashman didn't in the photo caption to Kepner's piece: small sample size! Kepner writes it himself:
Four starts? That's nothing. Two of those starts (April 25 and June 9) were against the Red Sox (4th in AL in RS, 1st in OBP, 4th in SLG); one was AJ's gem vs TEX on June 2 (7 IP, 3 R, 1 HR, 1 BB, 8 K) and the other was an OK start vs LAA on April 30 (7 IP, 4 R, 1 HR, 1 BB, 5 K). Sorry Tyler, but there's nothing there.
The Yanks can live with a non-slugging catcher when they have three guys hitting 30+ HRs and three more hitting 20 or so, I think. Also, Cervelli has shown a knack for some timely hitting. Let's just wait and see with the guy, because if he keeps this up all season - assuming he gets regular playing time - I'll be a little surprised.
If they do end up letting Matsui go and DH Jorge for the majority of his games next year, essentially trading Matsui's bat for Cervelli's as some have said, then that changes the complexion of the OF and they ought to look into someone with some pop. Other than Nick Swisher, I mean. Also, it will necessitate keeping Damon for sure.
The argument against Posada might have some merit. I don't buy Pete Abe's idea, necessarily, because things change. It's entirely possible that Posada has gotten worse at his job, skill-wise and communication-wise. If it's true that he's becoming that kind of a detriment at catcher, it is worth potentially weakening the offense to get a more effective player behind the plate.
I wonder if the Yankees have any desire to make a play for Joe Mauer, or is he gonna end up a 1B or DH too soon himself.
Cervelli's 2009 OPS+ is 71. Molina's career OPS+ is 62. I'll take the younger, faster, more athletic cacher who is likely to get better and who can score from 1B on less than three hits. Molina should be the 3rd catcher.
The reason that Posada should catch less is that he is susceptible to leg muscle pulls and they need his bat in the lineup.
The Mauer question is tough because the Yankees are loaded with catching prospects, but if they don't get Mauer, Boston probably will.
[4] Unless the slugging catcher is absolutely brutal, I don't think it would make any sense to turn a relative strength into a weakness. Cervelli has gotten several big hits (OPS of 1.222 in 9 close and late PAs), but I am not sure I'd call it a "knack" just yet.
Also, while I do expect Matsui to be gone next year, I think it makes a lot of sense to consider Damon as a mostly full-time DH. Posada greatest value to this team comes from him catching at least 100 games/year over the next 2+. If he can physically do it, that needs to be the Yankees plan.
[5] Mauer was born in St. Paul. The team is moving into a new ballpark. If the Twins don't sign him to an extension, I'd be shocked. If there is one guy a team like the Twins would/should pay, it's Mauer.
[4] [5] Or the Twins, with their brand new stadium and ridiculously low payroll for 2011 and beyond, could easily re-sign Mauer, who is from the area after all.
The reason to send Cervelli down when Molina comes back is because Cervelli needs to get regular PAs to be a viable option next year (and beyond). The difference between Cervelli and Molina for two months in 2009 is very small; the best move for the future is that Cervelli get regular time at AAA; ergo, send him down. He'll be back on September 1st anyway.
[4] BTW Hawk, Steven Goldman can explain better than I can why the old cannard of "The Yanks can live with a non-slugging catcher when they have three guys hitting 30+ HRs and three more hitting 20 or so" is a red herring. In any case, that Cervelli's SLG is low is somewhat irrelevant; that his OBP is horribly low is not.
[6] Agree -- Posada wouldn't be a lousy DH, but he'd go from being a great-hitter-for-his-position to a pretty mediocre one.
I have the same worry The Hawk has about Mauer. He'll be 28 for (almost all of) the first season the next club signs him for, which should be a prime hitting season, but he'll surely want a long contract, and I'd be pretty worried about having him in the later years of that contract. He's a 6' 5" catcher. It'll be surprising if he's not a 6' 5" DH at age 32.
Of course, the way he's hitting now, he'd be worth a fortune as a DH, too, so maybe he's worth paying in 2010.
Shaun, I agree with everything you say about Cervelli, except I don't think his sluglessness is irrelevant. I mean, if he hit like Dave Kingman, I could certainly live with the low OBP.
[7] [8] Re-signing with the Twins would be the best outcome possible, but if Mauer wants to break the bank, that may not happen.
The same could be said of Pena (or even Gardner if you really want to stretch the point), but both Pena and Cervelli have strengthened the Yankees' chances of winning this season.
Posada should probably catch 65% of the remaining tames in order to stay healthy and strong. In the remaining 35% of games, Cervelli as the #2 gives them the best chance of winning in what is likely to be a very close race for the division.
Additionally, as many veterans have said, Cervelli has brought an infectious youthful energy to the team. The value of the presence of rookies on a veteran roster for that intangible purpose should not be overlooked.
Cervelli (and Pena) can play winter ball to compensate for any deficit in ABs.
Cervelli's 2009 OBP is .310. Molina's career OBP is .278. Cervelli is better than Molina at everything.
[11] Many veterans said the same thing about Cano and Melky in 2007. What happened to all that infectious goofball energy last year when neither guy could hit a lick?
That said, I dig Cervelli as a backup backstop. I don't expect much offense from him. But the occasional ducksnort hit in a big spot will endear him to fans forever.
[12] Except, he hasn't really been better than Molina at anything this season. Before going down, Molina was .273 .333 .386, which is better than Cervelli's .298 .310 .333.
[12] Molina's 2009 sample is overwhelmed by his career stats. Cervelli's 2009 stats will probably improve with more PT.
Cervelli is better at blocking the plate, fielding bunts, and he has a quicker release, so I don't see anything that Molina is better at.
Sorry [14]
Cervelli has a career MiLB line of: .273 .373 .381 .754
However, he has LESS then 1/2 a season above A+ ball, so development wise, he's in the majors about 2 years too early. So I would like to think his offensive numbers will get better. Maybe not his BA (which is quite good but over his head), but his walk rate and SLG.
It is not unreasonable if you have a very good defensive C, that he is the weak bat in the lineup. Traditionally, it's either the C, SS or 2nd baseman. With Jeter and Cano (not being weak), we can handle Cervelli's bat. This team needs to have some strong defensive players.
And while Po may noy be great, in comparison, to other DH's, we own him for another 2 years. If we keep him behind the plate, while having lesser defense isn't that bad, we risk losing his bat to injury, age and/or wear and tear.
The Yankees and the Sox will always be in a battle for premiere FAs. We got Tex, and that was the real important one. We had nobody at 1st base anyway. We don't really need Mauer in the same way we needed Tex. I'm afraid we can't have a $250m payroll, just to keep guys from going to the Sox.
I'm not anti Posada as a catcher as much as I just want to maximize hsi production for the next 2.5 years.
Will Montero be ready for 2011? If so, Jorge will see lots of time at DH.
[13] You really think that even if Cano and Melky hit that it would have overcome the loss of Posada and Matsui, and a rotation that often featured Ponson and Rasner?
Energy has value on very good veteran teams. That's what this is. As a result of the injuries, they weren't that last season.
[14]
You DO realize BOTH of those stat lines are "small sample size" alerts, right? Except that we know Molina will regress to his prior Major League averages, and Cervelli MAY regress back to his minor league equivalencies. The curious thing is that in the minors, Cervelli DID walk once every 8 PAs.
[15]
Sorry, I hadn't seen your post when I posted [19]
[15] If you feel confident in that scouting report based on 19 games, I guess I can't convince you otherwise. I would, however, point out that Molina has a very impressive CS rate of 42% for his career, so I am not sure how valuable Cervelli's "quicker release" is relative to Molina strong throwing arm.
I do agree that Cervelli is likely going to be a better hitter than Molina, but right now the difference between the two isn't very much.
[18] Absolutely...if you turned Cano's OPS+ of 86 to his previous season's total of 120, and Melky's OPS+ of 68 to his previous season's total of 89, the Yankees might have won a few extra games.
Regardless, I think the original point was energy only counts when the player hits. Melky and Cano had tons of energy in 2007, but it all seemed to dissappear in 2008. If Cervelli winds up hitting closer to .250, for example, will he still have all that positive energy?
[19] Of course I do...in fact, that was the point. If you are going to refer to anything Cervelli has done, it requires basing your conclusion on a tiny sample. So, if that approach works for Cervelli, why not Molina? This isn't a discussion of future value either. If you look at their 2009 performance alone, we see Molina with an OPS+ of 90 and Cervelli with an OPS+ of 70. Now, maybe Molina would regress back to his 60 level (in fact, I am certain he would), but how much worse is that than Cervelli's current level? Yet, Cervelli is being talked about as if he has had a great offensive contribution.
Composite stats of AL catchers in 2008: .258/.322/.393
In 2009 to date: .253/.316/.402
So, assuming Molina and Cervelli are league-average in terms of BA and OBP, the question becomes, how low a slugging percentage can the Yankees afford to carry at catcher, assuming the guy's defense/pitch-calling is better than the league average.
[22]
I *do* hear you . . . maybe the question becomes, if we consider Cervelli a worthwhile asset, and someone who has a future with the team, is he better served staying with the big club when Molina comes off the DL, or going back to the minors?
[23] Actually, I think the question should be how great must a catcher's pitch calling be to negate using Posada's .288 .372 .568 behind the plate. Posada's offense is so ridiculously better than the average catcher, that I think a "pitch caller" would need to be able to read the batter's mind in order to come close to canceling out that impact.
FWIW, to this point in his career, Posada is a much worse hitter when DHing than when he is behind the plate:
http://tinyurl.com/lgp4gw
[24] I kind of agree with [8]. If Cervelli and Molina are in fact both very similar players, then the former would be better served getting to play every day at AAA. Having said that, I don't really think it matters much. While I do like Cervelli, and think he can serve ably as the backup next season, he really is a very minor cog in the 2009 machine that seems to be getting a very disproportionate amount of attention (it’s almost have if many people really believe the Yankees are better with him behind the plate than Jorge).
[24] Yes, I think that's the question. I do think we're all agreed that Cervelli is a promising, potentially valuable player. Furthermore, there isn't a lot of difference between overall production for *this year* between him and Molina. (I think Shaun already said this.)
I say send Cervelli down, even though I like to see him play. He's better served, and don't forget, he's got plenty of options left.
[25] And if that's the question, then the answer is clear. And this is why I think we're going to miss Posada more than we miss Mariano, five years down the line.
[27] Well, thus far, the Yankees pitching is better with him behind the plate. If everything turns on pitching, one could argue the Yankees are better overall with Cervelli. Hard to believe he makes that difference over the long run, but if he does, it recommends him pretty well.
Admittedly this is not worth much, but gosh Posada just LOOKS like a much worse catcher right now. Less agile, more likely to snatch at the ball, worse throwing arm -- and that's not even taking into account the issue of pitch calling, for which his reputation is less than stellar.
Tough call for Girardi if this split holds up.