Diane, Stephen Fry has always had a great ear for language-fun humor.
I got a Netflix DVD of Jeeves and Wooster and asked my kids if they recognized Hugh Laurie. By the end of the second episode, one of them asked, "Wait, is that House??? His British accent is amazing!" I doubt most devotees of House are aware that the star isn't American.

[0] Great clip! Besides the beer and the Indian food, one of the only enjoyable things about living in Britain was the comedy

Watched all the highlights from the games, Yanks are playing so well there's not much to say!

Also on the highlight show tonight was Cubs at Pirates..on a rainy afternoon..I'm guessing maybe 5000 in the stadium? Pittsburgh..what a shame and a disgrace...

[1] I havn't seen House yet..worth jumping into?
Time to jump into bed here..can't miss David Price vs. Gaudin in the morning, then King Felix on afterwards..

Given the relatively low number of hits that the current Yankee record stands at, and that no Yankee has put up 3000 hits, I think reaching that mark will be a far bigger accomplishment for Jeter.

The more interesting issue, imo. is why hasn't a Yankee gotten 3000 hits? An obvious reason is longevity. For a variety of reasons, many great Yankees had truncated careers. Another reason is that the Yankees have drafted poorly since the advent of the amateur draft. I also think luck has played a role.

Rich, do you have any idea of which team has had players with 3,000 hits for their organization? I'd be curious to know that. A few weeks ago, one of the guys on the FOX team was talking about how the Red Sox had several guys with 3,000 hits but in actuality they only have one--and that was Yaz.

The New York Yankees have no 3,000 hit players...the Milwaukee Brewers have two. Figures.

[5] Not off hand, Alex, but quickly looking at the list.

Rose (Reds)
Cobb (Tigers)
Aaron (Braves)
Musial (Cards)
Mays (Giants)
Ripken (O's)
Brett (Royals)
Yount (Brewers)
Gwynn (Padres)
Biggio (Astros)
Kaline (Tigers)
Clemente (Pirates)

[3] If you like medical dramas driven by dark(ish) comedy House is definitely worth checking out. Laurie is great.

[4] good points, but could it also simply be that the Yanks have historically emphasized the long ball? Most of the longtime Yankee greats have been Bronx Bombers. Even Yogi, who was a "scrappy" hit-anything in the dirt or over his head type batter could mash. Jeter's a much different kind of hitter than the prototypical Yankee legend.

[7]
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/29Erw

[6] Right - but only 1 got all 3000+ hits while playing for the Brewers. Molitor only got 2281 while in Milwaukee.

[4] I've always thought the reasons no Yankee ever got 3000 hits (all in pinstripes) were due to longevity, and walking. With the exception of Ruth, the greatest Yankee hitters all did not get to 20 years in the majors. And even Ruth, with his 22 seasons, of course did not hit regularly in all of them.

The other problem is that (except for DiMaggio and Berra) they all walked so much. The more walks one has, the fewer chances one has to get hits.

[10] yeah, the walks is another very good point.

[7] I missed Yaz, which probably has Freudian undertones...

Did it again @ [9]

Rich and D, thanks! Yet another reason why you guys freakin' ROCK.

[4] The Yankees historically have and have gone after sluggers. They usually don't target prototypical 'singles' guys.

And this.....
"Let’s say that happens, and Jeter is signed for six more years. Give him, conservatively, 20 more hits this season. That puts him at 2,738. If he plays seven more years, he’d have to average 217 hits to catch Rose. That’s not happening."

Six more years? That's a horror that would make the GOB look like fun.

I can't imagine Jeter sticking around once he becomes average or below average. He fooled us this year, and many of us thought he was on the decline, both in power and being about to hit for average. So he may have a number of good years left. But I can't see him hobbling around the field in hopes of chasing records... especially ones that are basically unobtainable.

Watching Willie in his last year or 2 was sad. Mickey had over 500 HRs so he was padding that stat, but brought his career BA below .300 in the process.

Does anyone want to see a 38+ year old Jeter batting .250 - .270 and falling down in the field for 3 years? I think not.

The guy has too much class. He will pass Lou fro hits. He will get 3,000 hits.
He needs 27 SB to beat Rickey for the Yankees SB record. Should get that by the end of 2011.
He will pass Mantle for TPA next year.
He will need 290-ish Games Played to pass Mantle. Barring injury, that could be done by the end of 2011.
13 more DPs, and he steals that dubious record from Bernie.
He already leads in HBP. Giambi is 3rd. ARod is 5th and should end up 2nd.

He needs 400 Runs to beat the Babe for the Yankee record. Possible? Yes. But that's 4 more years (36,37,38,39) of getting on base a lot.
He is 98 Doubles behind Lou. He's been averaging 33/yr, so he probably needs 4 or 5 more good years for that one.

So Jeter has had a great Yankee career. 2011 is really the big year, and 2012 is the insurance year for 3 obtainable records. After 2012, he is 38 years old.
Seems like a logical time to pack it in.

Unless he's having too much fun.
..... But will the Yankees still be having fun with a 39+ year old Jeter at SS?

The more interesting issue, imo. is why hasn’t a Yankee gotten 3000 hits?

It just doesn't happen that often. Of all the players who've played MLB over the years, only 27 of them have 3,000+ hits.

I think 10 of them have #3,000 with their original organization;
Gwynn, Cobb, Ripken, Yaz, Clemente, Musial, Biggio, Brett, Yount & Kaline

6 AL
4 NL

Something that I find interesting is that 4 of the 10 (Gwynn, Biggio, Brett, Yount) played on expansion teams. It's a neat little bit of trivia to me.

[4 et al]

The greatest Yankees hitters, Ruth, Gehrig and Mantle, had long enough careers, but in addition to being sluggers, they simply walked too much. In addition, one has to wonder how many hits Ruth lost in his early career (if we look at his whole career, 1800+ hits, and not just Yankee career) because he was a starting pitcher for five years.

[16] True, but they are the most prolific franchise in MLB history and have had some legendary players.

Shaun and OYF have come up with some ideas that I hadn't thought of.

The Yankees historically have and have gone after sluggers. They usually don’t target prototypical ’singles’ guys.

Even so, 4 of the 27 (Winfield, Waner, Boggs, Henderson) have played for the Yanks. Two of the 4 (Winnie, Rickey), the Yanks got in their prime.

I had no idea Paul Waner played for the Yanks (albeit for 10 games)... You learn something new every day.

[16] Also, of the twenty-seven, several benefited from spending the majority of their time at DH late in their careers: Molitor, Murray, Brett, Winfield, and Palmiero.

[17] 2800 hits.

[18] but they are the most prolific franchise in MLB history

Perhaps this is actually a reason for the lack of a 3000 hit guy. Remember, the YAnkees were willing to part with Ruth. Scooter was shown the door, as was Mattingly and Bernie. DiMaggio must have seen the handwriting on the wall when Stengel played him a game or two at 1B in his last year, presumably to get a young Mantle in the lineup. Historically, this has not been a club that would tolerate a player lingering around to reach some milestone number.

One could argue that the Yankees have not had a "real" 300 game winner (i.e., one who spent the bulk of his career with the Yanks, as opposed to someone, like Clemens, who happened to pick up #300 while in a Yankees uniform).

True, but they are the most prolific franchise in MLB history and have had some legendary players.

Agreed, but given the number of players who have 3,000 hits, the odds work against any organization

[16] I forgot Aaron and Rose (better get coffee), so the updated totals have

6 AL
6 NL

[22] Mattingly left of his own accord, iirc. Bernie was given an extra year despite his decline. Both declined quite precipitously.

Again, I think part of it is poor drafting and/or giving up picks to sign free agents.

[24] Mattingly was granted free agency, played with some offers, and did not retire officially until a full year after he was released by New York.

Similarly, Bernie did not go (and has not gone) willingly into retirement.

The point is that there was NEVER any talk of keeping them around to reach any milestone number (though to be fair, Mattingly was pretty far from any milestone).

[22] Yes, but still, those players had opportunities to play with other organizations, and of the players listed, only DiMaggio had a shot at 3,000. And even so, he may not have gotten those hits in the years he lost to war.

[25] I don't recall Mattingly wanting to come back.

Bernie still hasn't retired. There's a limit to any franchise's graciousness.

I was going to say, what milestones?

[26] The war is another good point. It really affected Ted Williams.

Again, I think part of it is poor drafting and/or giving up picks to sign free agents.

I doubt it. Remember, only 27 players have done it. Of that 27, 12 have done it with their original teams.

In fact, the Yankees pretty much forced Mattingly out when they signed Tino. His last game was in fall 1995...he did not retire until January 2007.

http://tinyurl.com/nmdsls

[29] But they hardly ever had a 1st round pick for 20 years.

[22][28] DiMaggio finished with around 2200 hits and lost three years to war. But he only topped 200 hits a couple of times, so it is doubtful that the war alone prevented him from getting 3000.

It is possible, however, that had he made it to (say) 2800 hits, that he might have lingered for a year or two to go for 3000. Then again, he was really hobbled in his last year or two, and was none to pleased when Stengel played him at 1B.

[30] Maybe I'm wrong, but my recollection is that Mattingly was equivocal, at best, about coming back following the 1995 ALDS.

[31] The "one that got away" was Winfield. Had he and George not fallen out, he could have lingered for #3000 with the Yankees.

Otherwise, the other great players had the career hit totals cut short to injury, war, and other odd circumstances (Ruth being a pitcher for 5 years)...and the fact that Ruth, MAntle and Gehrig simply walked too much (as I argued above).

But they hardly ever had a 1st round pick for 20 years.

I suspect that it wouldn't have made a difference

Gaudin is pitching again tonight? Didn't we just do that?

God damn double headers.

The reason the Yankees don't have a 3,000 hit player is because their best players succumbed to injury or illness. Lou Gehrig would have blown past the number, but ALCS not only took that chance, but also his life. Joe D. not only lost time to the war, but had a series of deabilitating injuries, both in his prime and his later career. Mantle played an entire career on bad knees.

Aside from being all-time Yankee greats, those three players have one thing in common: their careers all ended at age-36. They also all ended on well above average seasons and probably would have continued playing if the economic structure was more fair to the players (no reason for Joe D and Mantle to take pay cuts when their celebrity could earn them more).

Also, not in the same class, but does anyone doubt Donnie would have gotten 3,000 hits if not for his back?

[33] The Yankees did give Mattingly every chance to come back. Steinbrenner, perhaps to a fault, pretty much left the door open to him, but Mattingly was the one who waivered, even before Tino was acquired.

FWIW

Gwynn (3rd Rd)
Ripken (2nd Rd)
Biggio (1st Rd)
Brett (2nd Rd)
Yount (1st Rd)

Those are the players that got their 3,000 hit in their original uniform

Molitor (1st Rd)
Murray (3rd Rd)
Winfield (1st Rd)
Henderson (4th Rd)
Palmeiro (1st Rd)
Boggs (7th Rd)

Overall 5 of 11 members of the 3,000 hit club were 1st round picks

[37] Though, Ruth was their best player, and he succumbed to nothing besides old age. Neither he nor Bonds made it to 3000 hits, largely because opposing pitchers took the bats out of their hands so often.

IIRC, I think it was fairly recently revealed that Mattingly was trying to shore up things @ home in 1995.

[38] I remember rumblings about Mattingly joining the team after Tino was acquired

[40] Ruth didn't join the Yankeees until he was 25, so he was starting late. As for his own career, his first four seasons were dedicated to pitching. Had Ruth been solely a hitter, he would have reached 3,000 hits, even with all the walks.

[41] At the time, the reason for Mattingly not returning was nebulous, but recent event have definitely shed more light. Even after Tino signed, there was the occassional story of Mattingly coming back (and even a rumor or two about joining the Cardinals), but nothing solid.

[40] It's also debateable whether Ruth even succumbed to old age. His last season with the Yankees was an OPS+ of 161. Even with the Braves, his OPS+ was 118. If his legs could have carried him, Ruth would have been able to play into his 40s.

[35] I suspect that it wouldn’t have made a difference

That's unknowable, but 1st round picks have a much higher probability of being successful than those picked in other rounds.

Obviously, you can draft stars in other rounds, which is why I am somewhat critical of Oppenheimer, but the odds do decline.

Also, had there been a DH at the time, Ruth would have definitely played a few more seasons. The biggest factor limiting his ability to stay on the field was the toll taken by playing (or trying to play) defense.

[37] I actually never thought Mattingly would get 3000 hits. No particular reason, just didn't seem to be the kind of thing he would do.

Looking back at the numbers, even if there was no back injury, at the end of 1989, he had "only" 1300 hits, and was going into his age 29 season. If he averaged about 190 hits/year, it would have taken him just under another 9 years to get to 3000, assuming no injuries and no fall off in his hits.

The first trick to getting 3000 hits is to be an established major league regular at a young age. (The second trick is to stay pretty healthy, and the third is to keep churning out hits as you age.) Look at Diane's list in [9] - all those guys started young. Mattingly was probably not going to make it to 3000 hits more because he didn't get "started" until he was 24, than anything else. Not to say he couldn't have done it - but the odds were against him from the start.

[47] I disagree. The biggest factor limiting Ruth's ability to stay on the field was that he did not take care of his body. DH or no DH, his years of hard living caught up to him by 1935.

Recall that Ruth died young, in 1948, I want to say of throat cancer - and that as early as Gehrig's "Lucky Man" speech in 1939, was in pretty bad shape. I doubt that he could have lasted much longer.

That he lasted in MLB until he was 40 is just an other part of the legend that is the Babe.

That’s unknowable, but 1st round picks have a much higher probability of being successful than those picked in other rounds.

Obviously, you can draft stars in other rounds, which is why I am somewhat critical of Oppenheimer, but the odds do decline.

Be that as it may, more 1st round picks wash out, than become "stars." It's the nature of the game.

1965 Major Leaguers [11]: Bill Burbach, Bernie Carbo, Joe Coleman, Billy Conigliaro, Ray Fosse, Al Gallagher, Rick James, Gene Lamont, Rick Monday, Les Rohr, Jim Spencer

1966 Major Leaguers [12]: Ken Brett, Tom Grieve, Richie Hebner, Reggie Jackson, Bob Jones, Leron Lee, Jim Lyttle, Carlos May, Gary Nolan, Bob Reynolds, Al Santorini, Wayne Twitchell

1967 Major Leaguers [12]: Ron Blomberg, Steve Brye, Jim Foor, Mike Garman, Bobby Grich, Jack Heidemann, Terry Hughes, Jon Matlack, John Mayberry, Dave Rader, Ted Simmons, Wayne Simpson

1968 Major Leaguers [9]: Lloyd Allen, Don Castle, Tim Foli, Junior Kennedy, Greg Luzinski, Rich McKinney, Thurman Munson, Dick Sharon, Bobby Valentine

1969 Major Leaguers [15]: Mike Anderson, Jeff Burroughs, Randy Elliott, Don Gullett, Don Hood, Terry McDermott, Roger Metzger, Balor Moore, Mike Phillips, Paul Powell, J.R. Richard, Charlie Spikes, Don Stanhouse, Randy Sterling, Gorman Thomas

1970 Major Leaguers [12]: Dave Cheadle, John D'Acquisto, Paul Dade, Steve Dunning, Barry Foote, Dan Ford, Bob Gorinski, Gene Hiser, Mike Ivie, Darrell Porter, Lee Richard, Randy Scarbery

1971 Major Leaguers [19]: Tommy Bianco, Roy Branch, Taylor Duncan, Jim Dwyer, Jay Franklin, Danny Goodwin, Mike Miley, Jim Otten, Jim Otten, Rich Puig, Craig Reynolds, Rick Rhoden, Frank Riccelli, Jim Rice, Randy Stein, Frank Tanana, Roy Thomas, Tom Veryzer, Terry Whitfield

1972 Major Leaguers [15]: Dave Chalk, Larry Christenson, Rich Dauer, Rob Dressler, Preston Hanna, Roy Howell, Dan Larson, Chet Lemon, Rick Manning, Jerry Manuel, Scott McGregor, Jim Morrison, Jamie Quirk, Dave Roberts, Dan Thomas

1973 Major Leaguers [19]: Eddie Bane, David Clyde, Ted Cox, Joe Edelen, Johnnie LeMaster, Gary Lucas, Gary Lucas, Lee Mazzilli, Donnie Moore, Steve Nicosia, Mike Parrott, Pat Rockett, Gary Roenicke, Randy Scarbery, John Stearns, Steve Swisher, Jerry Tabb, Dave Winfield, Robin Yount

1974 Major Leaguers [20]: Bill Almon, Tommy Boggs, Tom Brennan, Rich Dauer, Butch Edge, Mike Miley, Larry Monroe, Dale Murphy, Lance Parrish, Bob Pate, Ken Phelps, Ken Phelps, Rod Scurry, Dennis Sherrill, Lonnie Smith, Cliff Speck, Rick Sutcliffe, Garry Templeton, Scot Thompson, Willie Wilson

1975 Major Leaguers [15]: Butch Benton, Dale Berra, Mark Bradley, Darrell Brown, Darrell Brown, Rick Cerone, Dave Ford, Jim Gideon, Danny Goodwin, Dave Hudgens, Clint Hurdle, Chris Knapp, Bo McLaughlin, Bruce Robinson, Rick Sofield

[50] Those are 1st round picks, that signed and made it to the majors.

[50] Be that as it may, more 1st round picks wash out, than become “stars.” It’s the nature of the game.

Butt there is still a higher hit rate than any other round.

[48] Mattingly was a prolific hitter who didn't draw walks. For that reason, I think he would have been a likely candidate had he remained healthy. Also, Mattingly started at age-22 and had his first full season at age-23, not age-24 as you suggest.

[49] I just read Ruth's biography and the narrative made it very clear that Ruth's inability to even play below average defense impacted the Yankees desire to keep him. Because Gehrig was at 1B and playing every day (literally), there was no place to hide Ruth's glove. While Ruth's body did break down, he could still hit and would have remained in a major league lineup if there was a DH.

Also, it is a fallacy that Ruth's years of hard living caught up to him. By the late-1920s, Ruth was dedicated to an off season training regimine and often came to Spring Training in better shape than most other players. While his hard living definitely caught up to him at different stages of his career, he was, for the most part, not impeded by his health. He did , after all, almost make it to age-40 in an era when not many players did.

It's arguable, but my suspicion is that highly motivated players that retain basic health will be able to stay productive in baseball longer than in the past because of several advances in medicine and training. It's certainly happening in lots of non-impact sports like cycling and running. Someone like Jeter who doesn't have to fully power up to be successful with the bat and that has a relatively low impact position (versus catcher or pitcher, or even outfielder) should, if he remains motivated, be able to have a more modest pace of decline.

I also think the Yankees recognize (through jersey sales if nothing else) that he supports a powerful narrative for fans across baseball. He'll have to be less than league average at his position to get fired. And at shortstop that's a very very low bar relative to where he is now. If we plan for significant decline each year from here out, which is, in my opinion overly pessimistic, he still has five or six years to become below league average.

catastrophic Injury and his own interest are the two variables I can't account for, but if I could take those out of the equation, I'd put my money on Jeter gracefully declining with 10 fewer hits per year over the next five years, which would put him at around 3750, which is obviously much higher than most expect.

[49] Also, Ruth was not in bad shape by 1939. His health rapidly declined when he was was felled by throat cancer, but he remained very active in his early post retirement. If you recall the Pride of The Yankees, which was filmed in 1942, Ruth played himself and looked very healthy.

[43] Ruth didn’t join the Yankeees until he was 25, so he was starting late. As for his own career, his first four seasons were dedicated to pitching. Had Ruth been solely a hitter, he would have reached 3,000 hits, even with all the walks.

Indeed, as I noted at [17] and [34].

My larger point, however, is that the greatest Yankees players have lost lots of hits because they were OBP (i.e. walks) machines. Add in other factors (injuries, military service, late starts, tragic endings) specific to individual cases, and it is not so surprising that none reached 3000 hits.

You are correct about Mattingly [53], that had he remained healthy he was the type of player who should have piled up tons of hits. Had he a longer career, with fewer injuries, he could very well have reached the milestone.

Jeter is a similar hitter, in that he is a bit of a free swinger (though he walks at a reasonable rate) and thus collects lots and lots of hits. With Jeter, the only question was (is?) longevity/health.

[56] I thought that the Yankees pitchers all but begged for Ruth to be traded, because he was shit worthless in the field his last couple of years.

[58] ...which, of course, you already noted in [54].

[57] I agree with most of your points, but would not that being OBP machines wouldn't have stopped Gehrig, Joe D. and Mantle from getting 3,000 hits if other factors didn't prevail.

[53] You are correct on Mattingly's age - I read the wrong line from b-ref.com. My bad.

And you make great points about Mattingly's low-walk, many hits profiling as a possible 3000 hits candidate, but I still wonder.

[54] I would also say that no offseason training regime could outweigh or undo the devastating effects of all the smoking and drinking he did, both during his earlier years and then again during the season, but let's just agree to disagree on that one.

We do agree, however, that its incredible Ruth made it to 40 while still being a major league player.

[60] No single factor prevails; they work in combination. If Ruth walked a lot less, he would have reach 3000 easy, despite pitching for five years. If Mantle wasn't so injured, he would have reached 3000 even though he walked a lot.

Joe D. should not be included in this list anyway--he never walked all that much. He rarely played more than 140 games in a season, lost three years to war, and retired early due to injuries.

Intesting note that in top 10 in walks, only Yaz & Rickey have 3,000+ hits. In the OBP top 10, only Ty Cobb is the only member of the 3,000 hit club.

[63] if only I used less only's...

[63] It would be interesting to look at the top 30 or 40 hits guys (or even the 27 3000+ guys), and calculate their hits per plate appearance.

When Rickey led off for the Yankees, it seemed like they would score a run in the first inning of every game.