Toward the end of the 2007 season, it seemed obvious that the Astros, on their way to a 73-89 record just two years removed from the franchises’ only World Series appearance, were going to have to start rebuilding. Instead, the team hired former Phillies general manager Ed Wade and decided to take an out-of-left-field shot at winning their weak division, which had been won by an 85-win Cubs team in ’07.

Wade traded closer Brad Lidge to the Phillies in November, but made no effort to trade any of his other valuable veterans and instead traded seven players to the Orioles and Diamondbacks in December for shortstop Miguel Tejada and closer Jose Valverde, respectively. Thanks to a monster season from Lance Berkman, it almost worked. The Astros won 86 games in 2008 and were just two games behind the Wild Card lead on September 14, but a five-game losing streak at that point ended their postseason hopes and they finished 11 games behind the 97-win Cubs in the division and 3.5 games behind the second-place Brewers for the Wild Card.

Despite that disappointment and winning just 74 games in 2009, the Astros still have not rebuilt, though now that they’re on pace for a sub-70 win season this year, it seems the time has finally come as Berkman, who has a $15 million option for 2011, ace Roy Oswalt, who is owed $16 million next year with an option for the same amount in 2012, and left fielder Carlos Lee, who is owed $37 million over the next two seasons and thus could prove unmovable, are all expected to be on the block for this year’s trading deadline.

I’m actually impressed that the Astros are doing as well as they are this season. Coming into the season, I really thought Houston would be the worst team in the majors this year, but right now, five teams in baseball have worse records, and the Royals have an identical one. Still, only the Orioles and Pirates have worse run differentials and Baseball Prospectus’s Third-Order Wins drop the ‘Stros below the O’s as well.

Yeah, they’re that bad.

The Astros biggest problem is they can’t score. Again, only the O’s and Bucs have scored fewer than the Astros average of 3.34 runs per game. The Astros’ team on base percentage is .291, which I needn’t tell you is the worst in the majors, and their .340 slugging is also dead last among the 30 teams. Their team OPS+ it 69.  It’s stunning how bad the Astros offense is. Berkman is slugging just .418. Carlos Lee has done little outside of his nine home runs (.227/.264/.396). The second-best hitter on the team to this point has been 30-year-old infield castoff Jeff Keppinger, who is hitting a very batting-average-dependent .300/.352/.399 with all but one of his extra-base hits being doubles. Busted catching prospect J.R. Towles again failed to hold onto the job, leaving it in the hands of catch-and-throw veteran Humberto Quintero (.252/.282/.353). Second baseman Kaz Matsui was so bad he got released. The new left side of the infield, free agent third baseman Pedro Feliz and rookie shortstop Tommy Manzella, is hitting a combined .222/.259/.288 with three homers and 15 unintentional walks in 382 plate appearances. It’s bad, people, real bad.

The pitching is better, in part because it has to be, and in part because Wade took a gamble on one of his former Phillies players and it paid off. Brett Myers, who starts tonight against Andy Pettitte, is leading the Astros in ERA (3.01) and wins (4). Roy Oswalt, who the Yanks will miss, has pitched better, but with less luck (2.66 runs of support per game and a 3-8 record) and has struggled in his last two starts, inflating his ERA by close to a run. Twenty-six-year-old Felipe Paulino, whom the Yankees will also miss, has been coming on strong of late, but with little to show for it (3.00 runs of support and a 1-7 record).

The performances of the other two starting pitchers the Yankees will face this weekend, 31-year-old lefty Wandy Rodriguez and 38-year-old veteran Brian Moehler, have been less encouraging. Rodriguez, who will face the rejuvenated Javier Vazquez on Saturday, showed some nice improvement in his late 20s and seemed to have a break-out season last year, winning 14 games for a bad team with a 3.02 ERA, 193 strikeouts, and a 3.06 K/BB, but this year his strikeouts are down, his walks are up, he posted a 6.75 ERA in May, and he is getting killed by righties (.324/.391/.459). Moehler, who will face Phil Hughes, a pitcher 15 years his junior, on Sunday, is a replacement for injured 25-year-old Bud Norris, who wasn’t pitching well either. Moehler has made three starts in place of Norris, one awful, one solid, one quality, but this is a pitcher who has posted a 5.16 ERA over the last six seasons and has struck out just 3.6 men per nine innings this season.

Frankly, the Yankees should sweep this series. There are no Jake Arrieta’s on the way to the Bronx to replace Moehler. If there’s any concern here, it’s that the Yankees’ interleague history against the Astros comes with some bad mojo. First there was the six-pitcher no-hitter seven years ago tonight (thanks for the reminder, Will), then there was Chein-Ming Wang’s career-altering broken foot in 2008. The upside is that the Yankees are 5-0 against the Astros in games in which they’ve gotten a hit. Here’s hoping they keep that streak intact this weekend.

With Brett Gardner still out with pain in his thumb and Alex Rodriguez diagnosed with tendonitis in his hip flexor (apparently unrelated to his hip labrum issue from last year), the Yankee lineup is a bit short tonight. Robinson Cano hits cleanup and Nick Swisher backs him up in the five spot, that leaves the two hole to Curtis Granderson, brings Francisco Cervelli up to seventh, Granderson’s usual spot, and the last two spots are the replacement players: Ramiro Peña at third and Kevin Russo in left. Gardner is going to take batting practice and the doctors say Rodriguez could pinch hit (both are day-to-day), but for all intents and purposes, the Yankee bench is Marcus Thames and Chad Moeller.

Good thing they’re playing the Astros and have four days to get healthy before they have to face the Phillies. To that end, Jorge Posada has tested himself behind the plate and says he’s ready to catch. I still prefer him in the DH spot, but I don’t think Posada starting at DH necessitates Moehler being on the roster if Posada can catch. Moeller can always be called back up for the next day’s game if there’s an injury to Cervelli, so at most you’d lose the DH for a few innings without Moehler there. What’s more detrimental to the team: a couple of at-bats going to a pitcher or Chad Moeller taking up a roster spot every single day?

Houston Astros

2010 Record: 25-36 (.410)
2010 Pythagorean Record: 21-40 (.344)

2009 Record: 74-88 (.457)
2009 Pythagorean Record: 68-94 (.420)

Manager: Brad Mills
General Manager: Ed Wade

Home Ballpark: Minute Maid Park

Bill James Park Indexes (2007-2009):
LH Avg-101, LH HR-100
RH Avg-102, RH HR-113

Who’s replacing whom?

• Pedro Feliz replaces Miguel Tejada
• Tommy Manzella and Jeff Keppinger take over most of the playing time of Geoff Blum and Kaz Matsui
• Humberto Quintero inherits Ivan Rodriguez’s playing time
• Kevin Cash replaces Chris Coste
• Cory Sullivan replaces Darin Erstad
• Brett Myers replaces Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz’s starts
• Bud Norris replaces Brian Moehler in the rotation, though Moehler is currently filling in for Norris (DL) with Gustavo Chacin taking Moehler’s spot in the bullpen
• Matt Lindstrom replaces Jose Valverde
• Brandon Lyon replaces LaTroy Hawkins
• Wilton Lopez is filling in for Alberto Arias (DL)
• Casey Daigle is filling in for Chris Sampson (DL)

25-man roster:

1B – Lance Berkman (S)
2B – Jeff Keppinger (R)
SS – Tommy Manzella (R)
3B – Pedro Feliz (R)
C – Humberto Quintero (R)
RF – Hunter Pence (R)
CF – Michael Bourn (L)
LF – Carlos Lee (R)

Bench:

S – Geoff Blum (IF)
R – Jason Michaels (OF)
L – Cory Sullivan (OF)
R – Kevin Cash (C)

Rotation:

R – Roy Oswalt
R – Brett Myers
L – Wandy Rodriguez
R – Brian Moehler
R – Felipe Paulino

Bullpen:

R – Matt Lindstrom
R – Brandon Lyon
L – Tim Byrdak
R – Jeff Fulchino
R – Wilton Lopez
R – Gustavo Chacin
L – Wesley Wright
R – Casey Daigle

15-day DL:

RHP – Bud Norris (bursitis, biceps tendonitis)
RHP – Chris Sampson (rotator cuff tendonitis)

60-day DL:

RHP – Alberto Arias (impinged rotator cuff)

Typical Lineup:

L – Michael Bourn (CF)
R – Jeff Keppinger (2B)
S – Lance Berkman (1B)
R – Carlos Lee (LF)
R – Hunter Pence (RF)
R – Pedro Feliz (3B)
R – Tommy Manzella (SS)
R – Humberto Quintero (C)