Three weeks ago the idea of the Yankees coming out of the soft part of their schedule and running right into the two-time defending National League champion Phillies was downright frightening, but as luck would have it, the Yankees might be catching the Phillies at exactly the right time. Though they’ve split four of them, the Phillies haven’t won a series since mid May and are 6-14 in their last 20 games having fallen to third place in the NL East behind the Mets (the Mets!).
Shockingly, the Phillies big problem has been scoring runs. Over an 11 game span from May 22 to June 2, they scored just 14 runs while going 2-9 over that span. Since then they’ve perked up a bit, but only a bit. Take out their one ten-run outburst against the Marlins a week ago and the Phillies have scored just three runs per game in eight of their last nine contests while going 3-5 in those games.
How did the team that led the NL in runs in each of the last four seasons suddenly lost the ability to score? Start with a calf injury that has limited 2007 MVP and leadoff hitter Jimmy Rollins to 12 games. Chase Utley missed two games with the flu in mid-May, has hit just .175/.295/.263 in 95 plate appearances since, and hasn’t homered since May 20. Ryan Howard, always a slow starter (.260/.342/.525 career in the first half vs. .303/.407/.633 in the second half) is sticking to that pattern with a .286/.342/.461 line thus far. That’s the core of the Phillies’ offense right there, and the team’s inability to replace Rollins with even a replacement level bat (per VORP, Wilson Valdez and Juan Castro have combined to cost the Phillies a half a win relative to replacement level already this season) has made his absence hurt even more than it should.
But that’s not all. Raul Ibañez, who was a stud last year before a groin injury interrupted his flow, is looking every one of his 38 years this year, putting up his worst performance since he became a full-timer a decade ago, hitting .247/.335/.394. There’s so much slumping going on in the Phillies’ lineup that it seems to have become contagious. Jayson Werth, who should be one of the top free agents to hit the market this winter, was hitting .327/.403/.641 on May 25, but has hit just .137/.241/.235 in 58 PAs since.
I bet Roy Halladay thought he had left his complete-game losses behind him in Toronto, but he suffered a complete game loss on May 18 to the Pirates of all teams, losing 2-1, and in his last start, he allowed just one run in eight innings but took another loss as the Phillies failed to score against Josh Johnson and lost 2-0 (though I suppose that latter was fair play as Johnson was the losing pitcher in Halladay’s perfect game despite not allowing an earned run in that start).
Halladay has a 1.96 ERA on the season and has complied this line in his last three starts: 24 IP, 16 H, 3 R, 0 HR, 2 BB, 26 K. He faces CC Sabathia tonight, who according to Yahoo! Sports, “is 6-3 this season, but four of those wins have come against the Orioles, who began play Monday with by far the worst record in baseball (17-46). Sabathia’s ERA in his other nine starts this season is 4.69.” Indeed, Sabathia has been sharp in his last two starts, but both came against the O’s, and in the two before that he gave up 11 runs (ten earned) in just 11 innings in losses to the Mets and the lowly Indians.
Facing a slumping Phillies team that typically relies on big lefty bats Howard and Utley could help CC continue his recent success, but even if he pitches well, one will still have to wonder if it was CC or his slumping opposition that was the key factor. Either way, he’ll have his work cut out for him facing Halladay.
The next two pitching matchups are far more favorable to the Yankees. On Wednesday, A.J. Burnett takes on Kyle Kendrick, who is filling in for injured lefty J.A. Happ, and on Thursday the seniors tour comes to town as 47-year-old Jamie Moyer takes on the red-hot Andy Pettitte, who, at 38, is still nine years Moyer’s junior.
Alex Rodriguez remains out of the lineup tonight due to his hip flexor tendonitis, but said the swelling has gone down and that he could start at third base tomorrow. Rodriguez was supposed to DH tonight and is available to pinch-hit. Ramiro Peña bats ninth and plays third base and with the DH spot opened back up, Jorge Posada, who was originally in the lineup at catcher, will DH and hit sixth behind Nick Swisher with Robinson Cano cleaning up. The bottom three in the lineup are Brett Gardner (LF), Francisco Cervelli (C), and Peña.
In other injury news, Sergio Mitre, who hadn’t pitched since the first day of the Toronto series, was placed on the 15-day disabled list with an oblique injury that occurred during batting practice on Sunday (the Yankees play six games in NL parks next week, though I can’t imagine Mitre would have gotten an at-bat or been expected to deliver had he had one). He is being replaced by lousy lefty Boone Logan. If the Yankees retroactively date Mitre’s DL stay, he would be eligible to be activated on Saturday, though I’m sure he wouldn’t be ready to return that quickly.
Philadelphia Phillies
2010 Record: 32-29 (.525)
2010 Pythagorean Record: 33-28 (.541)
2009 Record: 93-69 (.574)
2009 Pythagorean Record: 93-69 (.574)
Manager: Charlie Manuel
General Manager: Ruben Amaro Jr.
Home Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park
Bill James Park Indexes (2007-2009):
LH Avg-104, LH HR-111
RH Avg-101, RH HR-117
Who’s Replacing Whom:
- Wilson Valdez is filling in for Jimmy Rollins (DL)
- Placido Polanco replaces Pedro Feliz
- Ross Gload replaces Matt Stairs
- Juan Castro replaces Eric Bruntlett
- Brian Schneider replaces Paul Bako and Chris Coste
- Roy Halladay replaces Cliff Lee, Pedro Martinez and Brett Myers’ starts
- Kyle Kendrick is filling in for J.A. Happ (DL)
- Jose Contreras replaces Chan Ho Park
- J.C Romero reclaims the innings of Scott Eyre and Jack Taschner
- Danys Baez replaces Clay Condrey and Tyler Walker
- David Herndon is filling in for Ryan Madson (DL)
25-man roster:
1B – Ryan Howard (L)
2B – Chase Utley (L)
SS – Wilson Valdez (R)
3B – Placido Polanco (R)
C – Carlos Ruiz (R)
RF – Jayson Werth (R)
CF – Shane Victorino (S)
LF – Raul Ibanez (L)
Bench:
R – Ben Francisco (OF)
L – Ross Gload (1B)
L – Greg Dobbs (IF)
R – Juan Castro (IF)
L – Brian Schneider (C)
Rotation:
R – Roy Halladay
L – Jamie Moyer
R- Joe Blanton
L – Cole Hamels
R – Kyle Kendrick
Bullpen:
R – Brad Lidge
R – Jose Contreras
L – J.C. Romero
R – Danys Baez
R – Chad Durbin
R – David Herndon
15-day DL:
SS – Jimmy Rollins (right calf strain)
LHP – J.A. Happ (left forearm discomfort)
60-day DL:
RHP – Ryan Madson (broken right big toe)
Typical Lineup:
S – Shane Victorino (CF)
R – Placido Polanco (3B)
L – Chase Utley (2B)
L – Ryan Howard (1B)
R – Jayson Werth (RF)
L – Raul Ibanez (LF)
R – Wilson Valdez (SS)
R – Carlos Ruiz (C)
In other injury news, Sergio Mitre, who hadn’t pitched since the first day of the Toronto series, was placed on the 15-day disabled list with an oblique injury that occurred during batting practice on Sunday ... He is being replaced by lousy lefty Boone Logan.
AAAAAAAAHHH.
KILL IT, FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, KILL IT!!!
No Mitre???
But who will pitch the...
Couldn't think of a good ending to the joke. Sorry.
An unlucky injury to an unlucky pitcher. : )
I didn't know the Phillies played in the Rogers Centre!
BP's Kevin Goldstein:
If you were ready to write off Brackman when his ERA sat at a lofty 8.31 after six starts in the Florida State League, that would have been a mistake, as things are starting to really click. He's been throwing an almost shocking number of strikes all season (7 BB in 55 IP), but his stuff is getting better and better, as the Yankees have put considerable work into nearly every aspect of his game and the results are finally showing up. With a fastball suddenly getting up to 96 mph, two distinct breaking balls and a changeup, Brackman has allowed six runs over 29 innings in his last five starts while whiffing 34, and he's back on the prospect map.
BP's Steven Goldman:
Adam (NY): Steve, you've been pretty dismissive of Andrew Brackman (I can only assume you wrote the rather scathing comment in the book) but he has been outstanding lately with an incredible K/BB. Not a believer still?
Steven Goldman: I did write the scathing comment, and regardless of what happens I still think it's right--the first round is not the place for outright speculation, and even if Brackman eventually becomes something useful I disagree with the philosophy that made the pick possible in the first place. He has been good lately 46-6 strikeout walk ratio in his last 47 innings, and that he has found his command given his lack of experience is a heck of a thing. But he's also a 24-year-old pitching in High-A ball. Let's talk again when/as/if he moves up.
Nothing like doubling down on being wrong with being obstinate ...
AAAAAAAAAAH.
HOLLIDAY =! HALLADAY!!!
[2] ...trash? Bath water? Bi... uh, never mind.
Well, I can see *this* is going to be a well populated game thread ...
[8] I think everyone's outside kicking a ball around.
[9] Unless they're Portuguese, in which case they're falling and clutching their faces anytime they see anyone taking a kick at anything round ...
[9] i'm inside practicing my vuvuzela.
plus, it's pouring outside - 2 things i dislike...
[11] I'm just pissed that "vuvuzela" isn't the pseudonym of some smoking hot Brazilian pornstar ...
[10] I know. Not just Portuguese, either. Did you see that two German players were yellow carded for "simulation"?
Probably baseball has some absurd, irrational bits and pieces and we just don't notice them.
[11] Practicing your... oh, heaven help us!
[12] Shouldn't vuvuzela be a male pornstar? After all, it is a large horn that gets blown.
[14] Mayhaps, I'm just going on the bits and pieces of the word itself!
=)
[12] i think that's "zuzuvela" - the female counterpart.
[15] In soccer names often seem to have the wrong gender. Like Kaká.
I'm eating my lucky takeout phở. We're winning this game.
fat liar with yet another homer. i hate fenway park.
Gritner!
[18] ooh, i'm jealous! that sounds delicioso!!!
Hey, Brett!!
[1] Kill it with fire.
[17] I don't think it's the "gender" that's wrong with Kaka!
=)
GRITNER!!!!!!
(I'm surprised he didn't score 2 runs himself on that hit)
Eirias, great good-luck-eating!
Also, awesome diacritical mark.
[25] i love the term "diacritical mark" and have always wanted to name an instrumental composition of mine that. but i already have "Interrobang", so i'm all set!
i played in a band whose moniker had an incorrect diacritical mark - we used a long sign instead of an umlaut. but, still, it was a cool made up word, written lower case, in parentheses and had a long sign. cool.
btw, gameday froze already. what'd did gritonioius do?! (<--- hey, an interrobang!)
Link on MLB.com = Watch the Albert Pujols "Journey to Comfort."
WTF?
ah, nevermind - nice triple gritner!!!
[27] kaka poo holes.
[sorry to ruin your pho]
Evening, Team.
Looks like I missed a bit of fireworks.
[26] What's amazing is that "quesclamation mark" is almost as cool a term.
[26] Oh, like Hüsker Dü! Only opposite, I guess. They had extraneous umlauts.
Yeah, diacritical marks and polyrhythm. Hmmm.
Hitting Peña? Don't tease the panther.
[30] Yes, Brett bashed and ran. Very cool.
[5] Goldman has a point, let's wait until Brackman pitches at a higher level (he's old for his level) before we get too excited about him. Having said that, it is encouraging that he is doing better.
[16] I thought it was 'Xuxavela'
[31] holy crap, that is amazing! i never heard that. i'm gonna stick my "interrobang" for my piece though. ironically, it's what i was in the middle of practicing when i realized the time and checked in on the game.
that said, i need to get back to the marimba and interrobang & shadow games. uh, i mean the vuvuzela.
[36] Ironically? What are you, Alanis Morissette?
[37] why, yes, i is! how'd you finally figger it out?
Oooh, nice!
Down and in to the lefty!
FUCK YES!!!!!!!
Whoa, another blast off Halliday
GRANDY!!!
Robbie being Robbie.
Tex being Tex : /
[38] Well, she was once in a band called (junge), with a long sign.
(I don't know what a long sign is so I couldn't put it in.)
Jesus, Mary and Joseph!
NICK MOTHERFUCKING STICK
This pitcher is badly overrated.
I want Wilson Betemit back.
The Yankees have secretly replaced Roy Halladay with Bug Holliday http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hollibu01.shtml.
Lets see if the Yankee hitters can tell the difference.
[5] Goldman has a point, let’s wait until Brackman pitches at a higher level (he’s old for his level) before we get too excited about him. Having said that, it is encouraging that he is doing better.
Yeah, of course, I'm not arguing that Brackman's going to turn out to be a successful pick, but that's not my problem with what he said.
I have NO idea whether Brackman's going to turn out to be ANYTHING.
It's THIS that I have the problem with: I did write the scathing comment, and regardless of what happens I still think it’s right–the first round is not the place for outright speculation, and even if Brackman eventually becomes something useful I disagree with the philosophy that made the pick possible in the first place.
To which I'll call, BULLSHIT. That's EXACTLY what you want from that spot, high risk but high reward. You're picking LAST in the 1st round, which, by historical reality IS a speculative gamble.
I mean, go back and look at the 2007 draft. From the point where the Yankees picked in the 1st round until the point where they picked in the 2nd round, go back and count how many picks you'd trade for Brackman, even *with* hindsight (I count 2, and 1 of those is out for another year with TJ surgery).
No no-no for cc.
it says "deflected by CC" and "injury delay".
what in the fuck is going on?!?! questclamation bang!!!
ugh. don't let 'em back in this thing.
bear down, bear of a man!!!
[5] I don't mind SG sticking to his guns, but I do think his stance is wrongheaded. For the Yankees, who pick so late where upside and certainty are not available, I say go for upside every time. Some measure of certainty can be had by spending a lot of money and making up the lower probabilities with large volume. Goldman's approach yields Cito Culver.
Was that good for us or what ؟
Uh oh.
Oh no.
Home to this. Why the fuck did CC throw that 0-2 pitch to Howard? Bollocks! Now the slumpers will make it interesting.
when we said we hoped CC would match Doc, this isn't what i had in mind... : ~
[55] err, what cult [51] said. nice timing!
Who is dealing today? ☞ C.C. MF'ing Sabathia.
[62] Said far too early.
Oh, fuck.
Still 1-2.
Goldman’s approach yields Cito Culver.
I don't know that I entirely agree with this, since everything the Yankees have said since the 2010 is that *they* think Culver is a high-upside player, but at the very least, I do agree that Goldman's approach is far more likely to lead to mediocrity than what the Yankees are currently doing in their draft strategy ...
Fuck.
Come on, Big Man!
Le Sigh
AGGGGGHH1!!
This is excruciating.
[69] Yes it is.
We can't have this.
This is very un-ace like.
We can't have it.
MOTHERHUMPINGFUCKER!
FUCKING LAME!!! Get it together, dumbasses.
I really want to strangle Sabathia right now. This is so ****ing annoying.
This is excruciating.
No, THAT was excruciating ...
And Teixeira now too
They're hitting his fastball. He has to stick with the breaking ball. (Not sure about the change.)
Pull your FUCKING head out of your ample FUCKING ass.
Know what I mean???
Accoriding to Cliff's Notes,
Take out their one ten-run outburst against the Marlins a week ago and the Phillies have scored just three runs per game in eight of their last nine contests while going 3-5 in those games.
This pisses me off. Big Time. Vs CC no less. Fuck.
This keystone kops routine is soul sucking
The play was at home.
But after putting up 5 against Halladay and striking out 6 through the first three innings, this is just lame in general.
[51] I think the issue with the Brackman pick was signability, inexperience and injury. At any rate, it's not that big a deal that the Yanks picked Brackman, but I can understand why some would have issue with the pick.
Pfew.
Could have been worse.
Could have been better, but it could have been worse.
[65] I think you're right. It's like Steve is always looking for an Ian Kennedy-type sign, but even guys like him are pretty rare at ~#32. Kennedy was above slot if I recall correctly.
Longest 3-run half-inning in history?
Thank god that's over.
My faith in CC this year, after seemingly cementing last post season, is shaky.
Got out with the lead.
That was weird, in retrospect (excruciating at the time). After those three tremendous innings, an absolutely horrible stretch of five batters. Very strange.
Just an awful inning by Sabathia...bad defense, mental mistakes and poor pitching. The Yankees need Sabathia to starting pitching like an ace instead of a fourth starter.
hey everyone. at work. been listening. tough 4th for CC there.
[80] Given that they scored a bunch of runs off Halliday, I can see why Teix would try to turn two and give up a run.
Bounce back, CC.
Not to psychoanalyze, but I got the sense that Sabathia was overly geeked at the prospect of beating Halladay, after getting that big lead.
[81] But why? I realize I'm asking you to defend SG's position here, but his position (as stated above) is that the 1st round (by which I'm going to infer he actually means the BOTTOM of the 1st round, because there's NOTHING similar between the top and bottom of that round) seems patently silly.
The bottom of the 1st round *IS* totally a crapshoot historically. Why NOT take a gamble on a high risk, high upside player. Money isn't an issue. The potential injury wasn't an issue. Why NOT gamble? It's not like that drafting position is ANYTHING resembling even a reasonable chance at success, historically speaking.
That's my issue, if that makes any sense ...
[88] Ha! Not me. I really don't think it's reasonable to expect to keep scoring against Halladay. My sense was that's probably it, five runs. And frankly, it's a gift as is.
[87] hey, there ya are! been wondering where you've been. seems like i haven't seen you 'round these parts for awhile. could just be me though. usually is...
[93] You are correct, sir. We just moved. So it's been a hectic month. All's well, though. I mean, we still have boxes in the living room and dining room, but we're working our way through them. Hey.. the drumset is all set up and I've had some rehearsals in the house already. So my end is square. :)
90 seems more like nibling
I wonder if getting hit in the hand by that ball is the problem
[95] Yeah, I was wondering about that.
I hate IBBs.
Two and oh.
[94] oh wow, cool all the way around! i moved recently, so i know how much of a pain in the arse it is. i could only imagine w/ a family of 4. full band rehearsals at the bassist's house, huh... good stuff.
Um, double plus ungood here.
Good!
Sabathia is getting on my nerves.
Phew!
Whew.
[103] [104] We just have different accents.
[91] The draft in and of itself is a crapshoot, but if that's the case why decrease the odds by taking on such a project?
[92] It isn't that they'll keep scoring, it's that they've got a big enough lead that they're willing to trade 2 outs for a run.
[105] As long as CC stops acting like Pepe Le Pew.
Yay, Teix!
UGLY, but I'll take it!
They kept scoring!
Yanks busting up Doc Halladay? Excellent! Now if only Pau Gasol would stop watching the World Cup and remember he's in the Finals...
We might need D-Rob, Joba, and Mo.
[99,94] Cheers. What a pain in the ass. Moving, that is.
(110) still, a quality start would be pretty good considering
[106] Because the difference in the change in odds of any success is overshadowed by the calculated difference in the amount of that success.
I mean, if the Yankees chance of getting a MLB quality player(with that pick) decreased from 1 in 4 to 1 in 5 (both of which are RIDICULOUSLY overstated), but the quality of that player, if they did hit, increased from 3 stars or 3 1/2 stars to 4 or 5 ... that's a gamble that's worth taking.
At the bottom of the 1st round, you're either betting that you've caught something other teams didn't, or you're willing to gamble on some element of the player being selected.
In any case, you're gambling and there's no way around it. Why NOT gamble to the upside?
Again, if
If CC and Brains didn't have a brain cramp when it was 0-2 to Howard. Bleh.
Poor Georgie's foot
Ugh. Poor Pena.
Brains almost beat it out?
[114] Which, again, is fairly prominent in my arguement against SG. The Yankees made a "calculated decision" about the costs and benefits in comparing the relative numerical possibilities of a 32nd overall draft pick versus the expected outcome from that position and analyzed whether Brackman justified the risk in that position.
I mean, it seems to be a very straightforward CBA, but Goldman isn't arguing that their calculations in deriving the CBA are wrong, but that they're wrong in deriving a CBA at all.
Which, for a sabermatrician, is the closest thing I can imagine to fucking heresy.
if ya know what I mean.
Gah!
Bah!
We needed Gritner's magic power to hit 'em where they are in that at bat!
Wow, more CC.
Bastardo is spanish for Bastard... Thought I'd share that with you
Owww.
Ooooh.
Fuck.
[123] wha? someone get hurt?
[124] HBP, not cereal ...
[119] Given what you posted, it doesn't seem that SG has an issue with the CBA, but more that the Yankees took on such a large project when there were "safer" (for lack of a better word) alternatives than one that would need as much work as Brackman, as well as one that would take up a roster spot.
At any rate, if there's an organization that can afford to be patient or to take on a project like Brackman, it's the Yankees.
Yay Frankie!
Cervelli get rid of the gazoo helmet?
Brainiac!
Damn.
That must feel so fucking good. Crack.
Bad walk; good D-Rob.
but more that the Yankees took on such a large project when there were “safer” (for lack of a better word) alternatives than one that would need as much work as Brackman
Yes, but *that* IS a CBA argument, it is the quintessential consideration of safety vs upside.
And, again, look at the list of players chosen after Brackman and before Romine, how many of them would you not only want to select over Brackman, but can honestly say you would have wanted to select over Brackman at the time given the Yankees' position and what the consensus was about those players?
At any rate, if there’s an organization that can afford to be patient or to take on a project like Brackman, it’s the Yankees.
Again ... yes. But this is the *exact* opposite of what Goldman is acknowledging. The Yankees should be rolling the dice on high risk, high reward players, given their drafting slot, but Goldman is arguing they shouldn't.
Mr OK, if you're still around, are you enjoying the basketball game?
Just like Swisher last year, Granderson really is a guy I like having as a Yankee ... fwiw.
Good pitching, CHoP.
Good game.
Good evening, folks.
[133] LA up by 20 over Boston?
I don't really care for basketball, but I can enjoy *that*!
Tampa Bay up 4-1 over Los Bravos, Price came out blazing
[133] Digging it!
A win? The phở knows.
CC may be the straw that gets me thrown out of the building.
I completely lost my shit during that inning.
Should have fielded the first ball, *definitely* should have fielded the second ball, hits Howard after dominating him on the first two strikes, then fails to cover first.
The head, it was exploded.
He did gut his way through the rest, but I'll be damned, the Phillies helped him out in a few key spots and then overall.
Very, very happy to see them get a win over Halladay, but damn, CC. Damn.
That got really ugly.
[138] Me too.
I hope Kobe can sit out most of the fourth quarter and be ready to explode Thursday.
Waitaminute. The Yankees brought Boone Logan back?
I hate this team.
well well, beating Halladay is ALWAYS a good day. Too tired to read the thread. I'll trust y'all did a fine job of carrying the team to victory. Onward and upward!
[142] That's alright, most of this team hates you ...