Okay, so I just wrote one of the longest previews I’ve ever written getting some stuff off my chest that’s been there since November and shoved aside some other important work to do it. But it all got erased. So while I try not to lose my mind, here’s the roster of the Mariners, who have scored just 3.4 runs per game this year, but are running out one of the league’s best pitchers tonight.
Seattle Mariners
2010 Record: 31-44 (.413)
2010 Pythagorean Record: 30-45 (.400)
2009 Record: 85-77 (.525)
2009 Pythagorean Record: 75-87 (.463)
Manager: Don Wakamatsu
General Manager: Jack Zduriencik
Home Ballpark: Safeco Field
Bill James Park Indexes (2009):
LH Avg-97, LH HR-111
RH Avg-96, RH HR-84
Who’s replacing whom:
- Chone Figgins replaces Adrian Beltre
- Jack Wilson takes over Yuniesky Betancourt and Ronny Cedeño’s playing time
- Josh Bard (DL) who replaces Kenji Johjima
- Milton Bradley was replacing Russell Branyan and is now replacing Ken Griffey Jr.
- Michael Saunders replaces Wladimir Balentien and Endy Chavez
- Casey Kotchman replaces Jack Hannahan and Bill Hall
- Cliff Lee replaces Jarrod Washburn
- Ryan Rowland-Smith replaces the starts of Brandon Morrow and Carlos Silva
- Doug Fister replaces the starts of Ian Snell (minors) and Garrett Olson
- Jason Vargas replaces the starts of Chris Jakubauskas and some of starts by Erik Bedard (DL)
- Brandon League replaces Miguel Batista
- Chad Cordero replaces the relief innings of Vargas, Morrow, and Jakubauskas
- Brian Sweeney is filling in for Mark Lowe (DL)
- David Pauley is filling in for Shawn Kelley (DL)
25-man roster:
1B – Russell Branyan (L)
2B – Chone Figgins (S)
SS – Jack Wilson (R)
3B – Jose Lopez (R)
C – Josh Bard (S)
RF – Ichiro Suzuki (L)
CF – Franklin Gutierrez (R)
LF – Michael Saunders (L)
DH – Milton Bradley (S)
Bench:
L – Casey Kotchman (1B)
L – Ryan Langerhans (OF)
R – Josh Wilson (IF)
R – Eliezer Alfonzo (C)
Rotation:
L – Cliff Lee
R – Felix Hernandez
L – Ryan Rowland-Smith
R – Doug Fister
L – Jason Vargas
Bullpen:
R – David Aardsma
R – Brandon League
R – Sean White
L – Garrett Olson
R – Chad Cordero
R – Brian Sweeney
R – David Pauley
15-day DL:
RHP – Mark Lowe (back surgery)
RHP – Shawn Kelley (right elbow inflammation)
1B – Mike Sweeney (back)
60-day DL:
LHP – Erik Bedard (rehab from shoulder surgery)
Typical lineup:
L – Ichiro Suzuki (RF)
S – Chone Figgins (2B)
S – Milton Bradley (DH)
L – Russell Branyan (1B)
R – Jose Lopez (3B)
R – Franklin Gutierrez (CF)
S – Josh Bard (C)
R – Jack Wilson (SS)
L – Michael Saunders (LF)
Oooh, sorry Cliff, that sucks. You need an autosave thingy.
Hey, I think Cashman should be looking into trading for Carlos Zambrano. I'm serious. The price has to be lowwwwww right about now...
[1] yikes. Pass.
[2] Yeah, not no, but HELL NO.
[1]
I'd take my chances on VICTOR Zambrano first.
[4] They did that last year (or was that two years ago now). At any rate, I was doing a pretty good Carlos Zambrano impression about an hour ago, is that sufficient?
[5] well, I imagine that right now you would be more effective than AJ, and since the willingness to gamble on Zambrano is fueled by AJ's struggles...yeah, that is sufficient.
[0] Damnit! Now I really want to know what was in that preview. It's like Fermat's last theorem for the modern age.
You're all a bunch of wusses.
Chemistry. Bah.
this was U.G.L.Y.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100629&content_id=11718774&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb
[8] I know you're joking, some, but for me it's not about chemistry. I just have a bad feeling that he is in full meltdown mode. My spidey sense tells me they would end up giving up a useful part or two for a player who will end up not helping the team at all.
I think the Yankees have a better chance to turAJ around than to get anything out of the guy who is now on the restricted list.
Chemistry. Bah.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?n1=zambrca01&t=p&year=2010
[11] And of course, his contract ...
But, his career.
Obviously, he's having some problem this year. Unless you think his future is going to be like the first half of this year, rather than like the rest of his career, you have to love his pitching.
Gonna be hard to top Sunday's game.
The funniest thing is when I went in to work on Monday, all my coworkers assumed the Yankees had lost. They were cursing them out and everything. They were stunned when I told them what happened.
Though I'm not sure I want to be known as "the one who stays up way too late watching baseball games."
But he's been a nutter for a while, and he has already got a lot of mileage on his arm at age 29.
Isner should be our long reliever for the rest of the season.
[15] I know, he's nuts. But he seems to be able to play very well with it, except this year. And sure, he's 29 -- I thought everyone was drooling over the prospect of getting Cliff Lee, no?
One.
Let's Go Yankees!
Huffman-Hughes.
Hey, it's Chone Figgins! He should be batting .385 by the end of this series.
That strike was a ball when Phil threw it to Figgins. I hope it's not one of those Wildly Fluctuating Zone days.
[9] I watched that earlier. Brutal. Zumaya was in tears.
Hey, the curve ball! I knew he'd throw it eventually!
[23]
Basically, he fractured his funny bone. :-(
But, his career.
From Christina Kahrl over at BP:
So, yes, I'd say there is plenty to worry about in his performance alone ...
Oooh. Continuing the Anger Management theme, Milton Bradley missed a gopher ball there. Whew.
[26] What's SNWP?
[28] Support Neutral Winning Percentage
STICK!!!
GO BOOM!
Take that, Lee!
swisheroooo!!!!
The Yankees have surprisingly very good numbers against Lee. Not including the World Series, the starting lineup has an OPS against Lee that is over .900.
[29] Ohhhh.
That's a weird (and to me, useless) statistic.
Look, in 2001-04, he was a great, great pitcher. Then, until last year, he was a good pitcher. His ERA+ was 117, 118, 119, which is Andy Pettitte's career average.
I think this year is some kind of aberration. If it's not, if it just signals the end of his career, then he's worthless. But most of the time, an under-30 pitcher does not drop off a cliff.
Lee.
without corresponding #'s (sorry, i'm eating and multi-tasking as it is...)
cliff - SORRY!!!! (been there, bro...)
i don't want Big Z on my club, but i cringe at everyone ganging up on my pal, RI. so...i'm gonna join his side so he's not alone. i might not agree, but i gotta stick by my buddy. i'm fiercely loyal! : )
yikes - i saw the zumaya pitch last night. it hurt my elbow watching it. ouch! poor kid. i hope he's fully healed by next season. i'd imagine he'll be petrified to throw again, let alone air it out to triple digits.
and, oh yeah...
SWISH!!!
We've already seen two plays Gardner probably makes. Incredibly, Gardner may be the teams second best player over the first half. I don't think I have ever been more wrong about a player.
Chod Haffman almost made the catch of the year.
Oof.
fudge.
Kill it with a stick.
Hughes' fastball seems to be leaking over the plate.
damn didn't want to give that run back so fast.
I'd swear the Yankee Stadium grass is worse since the prizefight earlier in the month.
[35] Hey thanks! (Though not at all necessary.)
Thelarmis, do you know the Oliver Sacks essay about the Tourettic drummer?
[43] It definitely is.
That's bad.
damn that was weird.
[17] every else may be drooling, but not me.
Wild.
[44] fine. then i'll gang up on ya along with everyone else! : p
nope, don't know about the drummer essay. but i did get my cd mastered today! : )
Nick Swisher's batting average now stands at .292. It has never been over .280 this late in any prior season. #Mariners-#Yankees
[48] drooling - over the girl in the car wash video from an earlier post? yeah, i'm still drooling...
what was weird?!
Evening, Team.
I can't keep my eyes open for the heat.
Listen up, though, I *may* have an extra ticket for Thursday's game, free of charge.
Any interested persons should email me at weeping_for_brunnhilde at yahoo.
[50] Nice.
Well, it's very interesting. I remembered it while I was watching soccer, you'll be delighted to hear. Because the US goalie is also Tourettic.
Diane (or anyone else), I have an embarrassing question. What are those [51] # signs? Do they have some twitter significance?
In exchange for this information, I can give you this very excellent word: octothorp.
some of omar minaya's finest work.
[54]
Its a Twitter "hashtag" ... it helps folks track conversation topics.
p.s. I think its OCTOTHORPE
A WALK!!!!!
Well done, JoPo!
a walk and a hr, can cliff lee handle the pressure of yankee stadium?
[54,56] Ogie Ogolthorpe's mom from Slapshot had octuplets?
Good job, Jorge, that was a tough walk.
[56] Oh.
Well, New Oxford American says it can be spelled with or without the "e", and I like the look better without.
C'mon Cloris Leachman!
Dammit.
crap
[61]
Cool .... I didn't know that!
Wow. And Cano hit a hard line drive, too.
Damn.
Hate to pick on Huffman, but the Yankees have really felt Gardner's absence in only two innings.
[65] That's small consolation to me. I hoped I was giving you a new vocabulary item.
Not this time, Ken Huffman.
[69]
I like diacritical marks .... I'm a nerd.
[71] i do too!!!
[71] I'm a critic. Does that mean I have to like dianerdical marks?
Ohhhh... maybe you are dianerdical! You must marry a man named Marx and take his name.
ugh. that's worse than a leadoff walk...
That Ichiro guy is a very good hitter.
Shitty hitting teams should NOT have leadoff doubles in consecutive innings. Fuck.
Hm.
I thought Phil started off very well. I can't see any difference in the pitches. Maybe getting more of the plate.
fucking crap.
[73]
Heh ...
My initials are DBF .... and back in the day of Lotus and dBase, I thought I should get involved with someone with the initials WKS :-)
Wtf?
Is Eiland a spy or something?
Harkey vs. Eiland has some history: :-)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHN/CHN199305080.shtml
50 pitches. no outs...
that's what i'm talkin' about!
That Jeter kid seems to be coming around.
Just let it go, Kay.
[85] dare I ask what he's going on about, says he who is listening to the mariners' broadcast.
[86] He's just outraged that an umpire would dare to publicly criticize the pace of Boston-New York games.
Phew.
I'll take that.
Better to be lucky than good.
Not really, just something you say.
Ugh.
Phil is missing his spots *badly* tonite.
Not Phil's night.
Hang in there, Phil.
[87] ah, I see. Well, I actually agreed with Joe West that one, though whether it's appropriate for an active umpire to make such public statements is another story. Anyway, that whole debate is soooooo April.
Hughes hasn't missed location this often all season. It's a necessary evil, but skipping Hughes is going to have a double negative impact each time they do it.
[93] I'm not convinced they have to skip him again, actually. It will depend on a few factors that are hard to predict.
[94] Baseball being one of them...
Yeah, Phil has just got to keep them close for another couple of innings and hopefully the Yankees can scratch a couple of runs. The Mariners announcers make is sound like the Yankees have hit a bunch of line drives for outs. Are they making solid contact?
[95] John! So good of you to drop in! I thought you'd be otherwise occupied.
It's amazing that Alex is fifth in RBI.
You wouldn't know it to watch him.
[94] if his limit really is 180 innings, they probably don't need to skip him again, at least if my back of the envelope calculations from last week were correct.
Fuck a duck.
[96] Yes. Robinson, and... someone else. Teixeira? Not Cervelli. Swisher popped out. Anyway, seems like they're hitting it pretty hard.
I don't think a healthy Arod misses that pitch.
... and that one was not exactly a pop-out.
That was a farily easy inning for Lee...his pitch count is back on track for about 8 innings.
[97] I can be rather unpredictable at times; I may have to do the Ol' 23 Skidoo so I can be behind the mike by the second pitch of the next half of the inning...
Another double.
Are you fucking kidding me?
I'm not happy about the lead-off-hit-every-inning thing.
Hughes has been way off....I really hope the Yankees didn't screw him up.
[102] Agreed. Any other year, that's 450' to CF.
The Mariners announcer said that Lee's BB to Posada was first his Walk in 38 Innings. 38 Innings! Sick. That's more then 4 games without a Walk.
Half to walk Ichiro hear....one more run and it's ballgame.
Damn it.
[111] Guess they forgot to wake up Girardi...why does he even bother to sit in the dugout?
oh no. what the fuck is up w/ all these goddamn leadoff doubles?! FUCK!!! : /
[111] Rampant homophony!
Man, he calls 'em late.
Grab your glove, Choad.
[115] That's just awful...I type so fast, I outrun my brain!
I don't think 10-5 is so great when 6 of those games were against the Astros and Dbacks.
Why a LHP ever throws Granderson anything that isn't a breaker is beyond me ...
Bunt and run. Hit and run. Steal. Whatever. Get Curtis to 2nd.
Hey Country Joe ... the strike zone begins at the knees, not where the socks end.
[121] Nope...Curtis is just fine right where he is.
Some interesting thoughts by Goldman here:
http://tinyurl.com/35sycde
And he drops this nugget:
MONTERO ALERT
He’s waking up. In his last 10 games, the 20-year-old is hitting .342/.375/.711 with three home runs in 38 at-bats, boosting his overall rates for the month to .299/.337/.540.
Now Lee is on pace to pitch nine innings.
As the season goes on, Cervelli's offense gets harder and harder to look forward to.
[126] Cervelli has hit his way back to being a nice defensive backup.
The radio fed online is lagging a god bit behind the game. That combined with Lee's clever strategy to have every other Yankee line out hard on the second pitch of the AB means that just about the time I post a comment the Yankees half of the inning is already over!
HUUUGHES!!!
[128] The hard line puts stopped in the third inning.
[127] yep. The thought of him starting more than about 40 to 50 games is a bit frightening.
[130] hard for me to tell on the radiophone. The m's announcers made it sound like Jeter struck the ball pretty hard.
I get the feeling this is the last inning for sir Phil.
[132] It was a soft liner to first...not hit well at all.
Can anyone tell me the status of Gritner?
No, don't like this. No IBB!
I guess they figure they can't score enough runs if even Bradley scores.
[135] Day-to-day with a bruised forearm.
This game sucks.
Oh, Jesus.
Blargh.
So much for this duel of Aces.
And that folks is the ballgame...five runs to the Mariners is frightening. I really hope the Yankees haven't managed to screw up Hughes. This hasn't been the best year for organizational decisions, so hopefully this isn't another one that backfires.
Well, Girardi's decided to pack it in ... NOgan's warming in the pen.
not good phil (better do better on sunday)
goddamn it. they score even w/out the leadoff man getting on.
fuck this noize
Leaving Hughes in this ballgame was pure stupidity. It was obvious he had nothing today. In fact, he probably shouldn't have come out for the sixth.
Joe Girardi is remarkable in his ability to completely mismanage just about every game in which the Yankees do not dominate. Some day the Yankees will hire a competent manager. I just hope they still have the same talent when they finally get around to doing so.
holy mother of fucking bullshit.
why the fuck did we have to skip hughes?! : /
(i know why...)
[141] if the Yankees screwed up Hughes by skipping him one start, then he's a fragile flower indeed.
did eiland go out for any meetings tonight?
[147] Pitcher's are a creature of habit...if his lack of command lingers another game, who knows if it will start to effect his approach and lessen his confidence.
Skipping Hughes is one thing, but not being able to see that he was done after the fifth is the real problem. Not only did the Yankees skip him, but then Girardi rewards Hughes by leaving him in to give up 7 runs. Pretty pathetic.
[147] As I seem to recall asking you once before, not so long ago ... why do you bother?
Well, this has been fucking delightful. Cliff Lee, Cowboy Joe West, and Phil Hughes looking like dogshit right from the start.
I had low hopes for this game. Nice that Granderson can battle Lee the way he has while the rest of the lineup has gone down like lambs.
Not for nothing, but sometimes it is just amazing that Posada was ever a catcher. That at bat in the fourth, I think, was unforgivable. Which - for him - followed an absolutely terrific at bat where he worked a walk (which Al and Mikey missed completely, as they were too busy yakking about nothing) (that's added to the joy - as I've mentioned, I find it is absolute torture when Al is in the booth).
But Posada gets up there, our pitcher is obviously laboring, the first two guys go in order, Lee's pitch count is not bad at all, but also not insanely low, and Jorge swings at the first damn pitch - which isn't a good pitch - and lobs a feckless fly ball straight to the right fielder.
FUCK Posada. It's not like this hasn't been a team-wide shitty effort, but you just don't do that. Particularly if you're a fucking catcher.
All we have to do is clone Swisher, and we'll be fine.
Unfortunately, it's 7-2, not 4-2.
Oh, Swish hasn't been no bitch, neither.
9 Nick Swishers > 1 Cliff Lee
[149] as long as I xan remember pitchers have been skipped or had their starts bumped up or back a day because of the schedule or a rain out or an injury. Rarerly if ever do I remember it causing permanent physical or psychological damage. Heck, Stengel used ro Jimmy with the rotation all the time and he's in the hall of fame. To worry that a pitcher has somehow been broken because he was skipped and then had an off start strikes me as a bit hysterical.
Now, on a strictly semantic level you are correct, we don't *know* for sure, and of course we never will.
goddamn Fat Liar hits a 3-run job. fucking cocksucker.
baseball really sucks today
ichiro is the coolest kid in mlb.
[151] like I said before, I don't post as often as I used to. I just like to poke the hornets nest once and awhile door the fun of it.
[157] Hughes velocity and command both were off today. He had his worst start against the worst offense in baseball. Is that all a coincidence. I don't think so. If I had to bet, I don't think the impact will be long term, but after seeing what happened with Joba, I am not so sure.
Dusty Baker let his pitcher make the third out with a runner in scoring position. Then pulled said pitcher immediately afterward. Weird.
[158] On that topic, how the HELL has Fat Liar gotten off the scrap heap?
That guy was so damn cooked, I really thought we could put a stake in him.
Must be better milkshakes.
i smell double digits....for seattle.
Hey, Boone. Use the Fucking piece of leather on your hand.
This game is unpleasant.
[163] fertility drugs?
[162] Could you imagine William if this team actually had a horrifically horrible manager, like Baker. Hahahahaha.
Don't send paramedics, send the coroner.
here comes the double digits. one swing...
[167] Just David being Manny.
[161] wondering if hughes is off his game because his routine was broken is one thing. Hand-wringing about whether he's now "screwed up" is a bit to dramatic. Moreover, I think that it is just as likely that tonight's start was a coincidence. Just like his absolute worst start came against the dreadful Orioles last year, and that was on regular rest.
As a wiser man than i once said, you really can't predict baseball.
[168] Girardi just did something similar with Burnett. He's no Baker, but he isn't far off.
I think Teix's year long funk is due to spending too much time thinking about Phil's innings limits and possibly needing to be skipped a few times.
; )
[171] You can't predict it, but it's fun to try. Suggesting Hughes was screwed up really isn't that dramatic...concluding that it will for a significant period is. I am really not comfortable with giving away one game, but hopefully that's the extent.
supposition time
Actually, I just can't let that go.
Do you realize how unfathomably awful Baker is???
That guy is like Torre, but far more vigorous, and therefore able to do even more damage.
Looks like everyone has packed it in for the night, but I just noticed that Al is way easier to listen to if I shred paper in the background.
[176] Baker is pretty awful. He tends to give the worst hitter in the lineup the leadoff spot. Hates guys who "clog up the basepaths" with walks. And leaves his bench players on the bench for weeks at a time, meaning they're so rusty you can hardly pry them off the pine when you need them. I'll give Torre credit on that one: he at least knew you had to give the scrubs a few at-bats a week if you wanted them to be useful.
I really hope the Yankees haven’t managed to screw up Hughes. This hasn’t been the best year for organizational decisions, so hopefully this isn’t another one that backfires.
Ah, I see, i obviously misunderstood your tone, diction and use of verb tense. When I read "managed to screw him up", using the present infinitive after the perfected tense, which seems to imply a progressive, ongoing or even perfected state of being, I thought you were wondering aloud if the damage done by a possible backfiring organization decision was long-lasting.
But really you were saying " I hope that the decision to skip him was not to blame for tonight's poor performance, even though it would be dramatic to conclude from one poor start that decision to skip Hughes once in the rotation has done lasting or permanent damage."
I'm sorry I didn't pick up on the intended effect of your post.
Dear Brian Cashman,
I understand why you signed CHoP.
It wasn't a bad idea, I understand the reasoning behind it.
But part of the reasoning behind it is that it would be easy to let him go.
Well, that time has come.
He's been terrible.
And not only has he been terrible, but his velocity is down and his breaking stuff has hung all year.
Experiments are nice, but it's time to move on.
-CoB
p.s. Please throw Boone Logan in a sack and drown him in the Hudson.
KTHXBYE!!!
[179] Semantics, shmemantics, ha.
C;mon ... I wanna Stick Trick!!!
[182] Well, Lee was nice enough to give Nick 2 crushable balls, but Nick didn't want 'em ...
Wow, besides Swish and Granderson, the Yanks might as well have asked Cliff Lee if they can do anything else to make him more comfortable. Not exactly stout resistance tonight.
[179] Can you translate that? To clairfy my tone, it was really more sarcasm than all that smart stuff you mentioned. Although I don't think Hughes entire season has been submarined, I do wonder how long it will take for him to get back on track and hope the Yankees ultimate plan for him is a little more informed than some of their recent decisions. I am not sure what the verb tense is most suitable for explaining those thoughts, so I'll leave that to your interpretation.
[180] There has been a spike in Park's hit ratios, he’s striking out more batters and walking less than he did last year. FWIW, he’s given up less line drives (19% down from 24%), less ground balls (40% down from 44%), more fly balls (41% up from 33%). Should be noted that there hasn’t been a drop in his velocity in any of his pitches, though I would think that he should probably select his pitches a bit better.
Holy crap. Can they do it again?
Those three extra runs Girardi let Hughes give up really look big now.
[186] Is that compared to his entire 2009, or just his time as a reliever?
Huh.
The plot thickens.
Ya never, ever know.
Why did those last two batters go down on three pitches or whatever it was?
Wtf?
well that sucked
holy crap dd you just see the bomb Votto hit?!
Lidge gave up a 2 out, 3 run bottom of the 9th homer to knot the game at 6. Joey Votto. Not that anyone gives a shit about the Reds-Phillies. : )
[192] Because Granderson had overperformed massively for a Granderson-Cliff Lee matchup and because the last batter was Chad Huffman.
At least the 9th was something different than bringing Cliff his pipe and slippers, but up until then, geez.
[189] Entire 2009. As a starter, 3 of his 7 starts had a game score over 50.
Game going to extras on that Votto homer. He's so underrated. I keep thinking his numbers are going to have to come back to earth, but they never do.
[186] Gee. That almost makes him sound like he hasn't deserved the beatings he gotten. Still, something seems off to me, like there's something missing from the stats you chose.
Oh, wait, I know what it was.
HR/9
2009: .54
2010: 2.35
He's given up more homeruns this year than last, in 1/4 of the innings.
When your flyball rate is up AND you're tater-tastic, that's a big bad problem.
[198] Also, I would say his velocity certainly *is* down, when you compare it to his velocity as a *reliever* in 2009. The fact that he threw less hard as a starter last year shouldn't have any influence on how hard we should expect him to throw this year.
[199] I'm looking @ pitch data, from his bullpen stint in 09, his velocity's pretty consistent this year and last.
[200] Going between Brooks and Fangraphs for pitch data, this is taking much more effort than's warranted... Agree in [198] that his HR rate in 2009 was unsustainable.
Although I don’t think Hughes entire season has been submarined, I do wonder how long it will take for him to get back on track and hope the Yankees ultimate plan for him is a little more informed than some of their recent decisions.
You see, now you're getting it! What a much more clear, balanced and careful way of putting it .
I am not sure what the verb tense is most suitable for explaining those thoughts,
You're doing fine here, just keep practicing. ; )