I hate to be that guy, but while I’m as excited about Opening Night against the Red Sox, set to commence in little more than a half an hour, as anyone else, I must temper my and your expectations for tonight’s game with a reminder about CC Sabathia’s tendency to stumble out of the gate. Against a career mark of 3.63, Sabathia has posted a 4.54 ERA in 39 career starts in April to go with a decidedly unimpressive 1.96 K/BB on the month. The last two years, coming off heavy workloads, his early starts have been worse.
In 2008, coming off his Cy Young season and a huge jump in innings pitched from 192 2/3 in 2006 to 256 1/3 (including the postseason) in 2007, he gave up five runs in 5 1/3 innings on Opening Day against the White Sox and after four starts was 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA and as many walks as strikeouts. Last year, in his Yankee debut against the Orioles on Opening Day in Baltimore, he gave up six runs in 4 1/3 innings while walking five against no strikeouts while clinging to a heating pad between innings. He didn’t struggle quite as much thereafter, but after six starts was 1-3 with a 4.85 ERA and a 1.6 K/BB. Sabathia’s 7.23 ERA and 3.85 BB/9 in spring training this year (which doesn’t include a minor league start in which he was lit up but does include the five runs in 4 2/3 innings he allowed in his final spring start) don’t offer much hope for his bucking that trend this year.
If there’s a positive for Sabathia going into tonight’s start, it’s that he was nails against the Red Sox last year, going 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA and 5.17 K/BB in four starts. Then again, the Sox have added two right-handed power bats, one of whom, Mike Cameron, has hit him well in the past (6-for-13 with five extra base hits and just two strikeouts, though most of that came when Cameron was with the Mariners and he hasn’t faced Sabathia since 2004). Cameron, however, is the only member of tonight’s Red Sox lineup to have had any significant success against Sabathia.
As for Josh Beckett, he struck out 22 men against just five walks in 19 1/3 spring innings and allowed just two hits in seven innings while striking out ten Rays on Opening Day at Fenway a year ago. The key matchup for the Yankees against Beckett is new fifth-place hitter Robinson Cano, who has gone 15-for-44 (.341) against the Boston righty in his career with eight extra base hits (three of them homers) and just four strikeouts. Brett Gardner, meanwhile, has never reached base against Beckett in ten career confrontations.
Finally, thanks to Steve Lombardi at the Baseball-Reference Blog, we know that the Yankees and Red Sox last opened the season against each other at Fenway Park in 1985. Oil Can Boyd beat a 46-year-old Phil Neikro that day and the Yankees went on to lose the division to the Blue Jays by two games. (For more Opening Day ephemera, check out Diane’s debut Bantermetrics column.) The Yankees and Sox last opened the season against each other in 2005 doing so in a Sunday Night game at Yankee Stadium in which Randy Johnson beat David Wells. That year, the two teams finished with identical records, but the Yankees won the division by virtue of a head-to-head tiebreaker. The Yankees were 10-9 against Boston that year. You could say they won the division on Opening Day.