Minnesota Twins

2009 Record: 18-17 (.514)
2009 Pythagorean Record: 16-19 (.457)

2008 Record: 88-75 (.540)
2008 Pythagorean Record: 89-74 (.546)

Manager: Ron Gardenhire
General Manager: Bill Smith

Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome (93/93)

Who’s Replaced Whom:

25-man Roster:

1B – Justin Morneau (L)
2B – Matt Tolbert (S)
SS – Nick Punto (S)
3B – Joe Crede (R)
L – Joe Mauer (L)
RF – Michael Cuddyer (R)
CF – Carlos Gomez (R)
LF – Denard Span (L)
DH – Jason Kubel (L)

Bench:

R – Mike Redmond (C)
L – Brian Buscher (3B)
R – Brendan Harris (IF)
S – Jose Morales (C)

Rotation:

L – Francisco Liriano
R – Nick Blackburn
R – Kevin Slowey
L – Glen Perkins
R – Scott Baker

Bullpen:

R – Joe Nathan
R – Jesse Crain
R – Matt Guerrier
L – Craig Breslow
R – Luis Ayala
R – R.A. Dickey
L – Jose Mijares

Family Leave List: OF – Delmon Young (R)

15-day DL: RHP – Boof Bonser (labrum and rotator cuff surgery)

60-day DL: RHP – Pat Neshek (TJ)

Typical Lineup:

L – Denard Span (LF)
S – Matt Tolbert (2B)
L – Joe Mauer (C)
L – Justin Morneau (1B)
L – Jason Kubel (DH)
R – Joe Crede (3B)
R – Michael Cuddyer (RF)
R – Carlos Gomez (CF)
S – Nick Punto (SS)

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Toronto Blue Jays

2009 Record: 22-12 (.647)
2009 Pythagorean Record: 21-13 (.618)

2008 Record: 86-76 (.531)
2008 Pythagorean Record: 93-69 (.574)

Manager: Cito Gaston
General Manager: J.P. Ricciardi

Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Rogers Centre (99/98)

Who’s Replaced Whom:

• Aaron Hill (DL) reclaims his playing time from Joe Inglett (minors)
• Travis Snider replaces Shannon Stewart and Brad Wilkerson
• Adam Lind replaces Kevin Mench and Frank Thomas
• Kevin Millar replaces Matt Stairs
• Jose Bautista replaces David Eckstein
• Raul Chavez is filling in for Michael Barrett (DL), who replaces Gregg Zaun
• Brian Tallet is filling in for Ricky Romero (DL), who replaces A.J. Burnett
• Brett Cecil replaces David Purcey (minors) and Dustin McGowan (DL)
• Scott Richmond replaces Shaun Marcum (DL)
• Robert Ray is filling in for Jesse Litsch (DL)
• Bill Murphy replaces John Parrish
• Scott Downs is closing in place of B.J. Ryan (DL)

25-man Roster:

1B – Lyle Overbay (L)
2B – Aaron Hill (R)
SS – Marco Scutaro (R)
3B – Scott Rolen (R)
C – Rod Barajas (R)
RF – Alex Rios (R)
CF – Vernon Wells (R)
LF – Travis Snider (L)
DH – Adam Lind (L)

Bench:

R – Kevin Millar (1B)
R – John McDonald (IF)
R – Jose Bautista (UT)
R – Raul Chavez (C)

Rotation:

R – Roy Halladay
R – Scott Richmond
L – Brian Tallet
L – Brett Cecil
R – Robert Ray

Bullpen:

L – Scott Downs
R – Jason Frasor
L – Jesse Carlson
R – Shawn Camp
R – Brandon League
L – Bill Murphy
R – Brian Wolfe

15-day DL:

RHP – Dustin McGowan (labrum)
RHP – Shaun Marcum (TJ surgery)
RHP – Jesse Litsch (forearm tightness)
LHP – Ricky Romero (oblique)
LHP – B.J. Ryan (trapezius)
C – Michael Barrett (right shoulder tear)

Typical Lineup:

R – Marco Scutaro (SS)
R – Aaron Hill (2B)
R – Alex Rios (RF)
R – Vernon Wells (CF)
L – Adam Lind (DH)
R – Scott Rolen (3B)
L – Lyle Overbay (1B)
R – Rod Barajas (C)
L – Travis Snider (LF)

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I’ll get to the Orioles in a second. First here’s what’s new about the Yankee roster:

• Alex Rodriguez is back, playing third and hitting fourth in the tonight’s lineup.

That’s huge. Joe Girardi has posted a lineup without Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada in roughly one third of the Yankees’ games this season (nine of 28). Amazingly, the Yankees have scored 5.67 runs per game in those nine games, but their record in those games has been 3-6, and four of those games have occurred during the team’s current five-game losing streak, with the Yankees averaging just four runs per game in those four games. Losing Posada for a month or so has undermined the impact of Rodriguez’s return, but Rodriguez’s return similarly negates the impact of the loss of Posada. Yankee third basemen have hit .202/.248/.283 in Rodriguez’s absence. It’s difficult to underestimate the importance of his return.

• Jose Molina is on the DL with a Grade 2 strain in his left quadriceps. Kevin Cash, who hurt his right shoulder on a slide in April and was just activated from the DL on Tuesday, has been called up to take Molina’s place.

Francisco Cervelli draws the start tonight. I have no idea how Girardi is going to dole out the starts going forward, but I would be surprised if Cervelli and Cash are much more productive in place of Posada and Molina than the Yankee third basemen were in place of Alex Rodriguez. Here’s what I wrote about Cash in my Yankee Campers piece back in February:

Kevin Cash is only three years younger than Chad Moller and a whole lot worse at the plate. He has a great arm, but that simply makes him a younger, less-productive version of Jose Molina. At 31, he’s a career .184/.248/.285 hitter in 557 major league plate appearances. His career OPS+ is 38. He’s among the worst of a worthless breed. The Yankees should be publicly apologetic for not being able to do better.

And here’s what I said about Cervelli:

Cervelli played just 21 games for Trenton last year, but hit .315/.432/.384 in them. That high on-base and poor power is typical of Cervelli, a strong defender who turns 23 in early March and could yet emerge as a major league starter. The Yankees hope Cervelli, the leader in their parade of low-minors catching prospects, will advance quickly, but they’d be wise not to rush him out of desperation. He looked completely overmatched in his five major league plate appearances last September.

And here’s what I wrote about Cervelli when he was called up earlier this week:

After losing most of last year to a broken arm, Cervelli now looks not unlike the catcher-version of [Ramiro] Peña. He’s a strong defender, easily major league quality, with little to recommend him at the plate other than a good batting eye. Cervelli looked overmatched at the plate in his very brief September call-up last year, while playing for Italy in the WBC this March, and in spring training after Italy’s elimination from the tournament. The sample size is minuscule, of course, but the competition in each was something less than what he’s likely to see in the majors in May, and he went a combined 4-for-25 (.160) with just one extra base hit and, despite that good batting eye, just one walk across those three appearances. Thus far this year, he’s hitting just .190/.266/.310 for the Trenton Thunder.

Though I did temper that a bit with this:

I’m not particularly worried about the Yankees “rushing” the 23-year-old Cervelli because Jesus Montero is now just a level behind him at High-A Tampa and is crushing the ball. Montero’s defense is far from major-league-ready, if it ever well be, but he’s nipping at Cervelli’s heals. Peña has handled the jump to the majors wonderfully. Cervelli, who has a veteran disposition—despite his lack of production he was a clubhouse leader on Team Italy—seems as likely as anyone to do likewise.

The way I see it, Girardi might as well start Cervelli and hope for the best given that Cash has already proven himself to be an incompetent major league hitter. That said, if one of these guys has a good day at the plate, he should ride the hot hand.

• Mark Melancon has been optioned to Triple-A Scranton.

That makes room for Rodriguez, but it doesn’t clear a 40-man roster spot for Cash, so another move is coming. If it doesn’t involve Angel Berroa getting designated for assignment, I’ll hit the roof. The problem is that the need to add Cash takes that 40-man spot away from Shelley Duncan, but then Shelley sat out Scranton’s double-header yesterday with a sore shoulder (his left, not the one he separated last year). Oy.

My suggestion for adding another bat is that the Yankees release the perpetually injured Christian Garcia, who is taking up a 40-man roster spot while working out in extended spring training. The hope there being that they could resign him like they did Humberto Sanchez. John Rodriguez or a recovered Duncan could then take Berroa’s 25-man spot while Berroa and Garcia will have made room for Cash and the extra bat.

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Yes, the Yankees have lost all five of their games against the Red Sox this year, but they’ve actually outplayed Boston the rest of the time. The Yankees are 13-8 (.619) against their other opponents (O’s, Rays, Royals, Indians, A’s, Tigers, Angels), while the Red Sox are 12-10 (.545) against essentially the same group of teams (O’s, Rays, Indians, A’s, Angels).

The Yankees may have a mere .500 winning percentage, but the Rays are four games below .500 at .429 and lost their only series against the Yanks thus far their season. The Rays’ haven’t won more than two games in a row all season and have a 1-6-2 record in series.

The catch is that the Rays haven’t been bad, they’ve just been unlucky. Based on run differential, the Rays should be just a half game behind the Red Sox at 15-13, rather than 5.5 games behind Boston as they currently are. The problem is the Rays aren’t giving themselves much margin for error. They’re the fourth stingiest team in the American League in terms of runs allowed per game, but they’re scoring runs more often than just five teams in the AL.

The underperforming offense can be pinned to differing degrees on B.J. Upton and Dioner Navarro, who have been complete black holes for the Rays thus far this year (Upton: .157/.276/.205, 27 OPS+; Navarro: .179/.198/.262, 18 OPS+), and Pat Burrell, who enters tonight’s game with just one home run and a .322 slugging percentage. Upton has gone 1-for-18 over his last four games. Burrell has had just two extra-base hits in his last 75 plate appearances. Evan Longoria is mashing, leading the majors with in slugging with a .365/.417/.721 line, Carlos Peña is leading the majors with 11 home runs, Carl Crawford is leading the majors with 19 stolen bases and has yet to be caught, and Jason Bartellet is in the top-10 in the majors in batting average, but Longoria, Peña and Bartlett are the only every-day Rays starters with multiple homers on the season, and Bartlett especially is playing way over his head. Assuming the Rays’ lineup will balance out and for a few more breaks will go their way, they should be fine, but they’re creating an opportunity for the Yankees with their early struggles.

The Rays’ roster is unchanged from the last time they faced the Yankees, though former Yankee farm hand Michel Hernandez replaced Shawn Riggans (15-day DL: right shoulder tendonitis) as the back-up catcher after I wrote my initial preview. They send Andy Sonnanstine to the hill tonight. Sonnanstine got a no-decision after holding the Yankees to two runs over five innings on April 15 in a game the Yankees eventually won with a run of closer Troy Percival in the ninth inning. Sonnanstine has completed six innings just once this season and carries a 6.75 ERA into tonight’s game.

The Yankees counter with A.J. Burnett, whose best start of the year was his eight dominant innings against the Rays on April 14 (8 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 9 K). Burnett walked seven in his next start, then coughed up eight runs to the Red Sox in the start after that. His last time out, against the Angels, he was good enough, allowing four runs over seven innings and walking just one in a game the Yankees won with three runs in the eighth.

Note those combacks. The Yankees have scored 2.38 runs per game in the seventh, eight, and ninth innigs alone. The major league average is just 1.47 R/G in the seventh, eighth, and ninth. Meanwhile, the April 15 game mentioned above was the only save the Rays bullpen has blown all season.

It’s a soggy day in New York. Here in North Jersey, the rain was intermittent and largely stayed away this afternoon, but right now, roughly an hour before the scheduled first pitch of tonight’s game between the Yankees and Red Sox, it’s pouring. The Yankees have said they will try to play tonight, but it’s going to be messy if they do.

Since the Red Sox swept the Yankees in three games at Fenway the weekend before last, the Yankees have gone 4-2 against the Tigers and Angels, while the Sox pushed their winning streak to 11 games with a win last Monday but went a mere 3-4 against the Indians and Rays.

The Sox have made just one change to their roster since the Yanks were in Fenway. Julio Lugo has returned from rehabing his knee to replace Nick Green as the team’s shortstop and number-nine hitter. Green thus moves to the bench where he replaces Gil Velazquez. Given that Green as hitting .304/.371/.464, that’s actually a downgrade for Boston. Perhaps Terry Francona has realized this as Green has drawn the start tonight.

The Yankees, meanwhile, have thought better of recalling Anthony Claggett (who took the spot of the injured Damaso Marte before Sunday’s rain-out) and have farmed Claggett out for Alfredo Aceves. With rain expected nearly all week, this is likely a move made to give the Yanks a long reliever should an extended rain delay end a starters’ night early, but it’s the smarter move regardless of the weather. Aceves has pitched very well in his last two starts for Scranton Wilkes-Barre and showed a nice uptick in velocity in his short-relief outings for the big club last September. He’s worth having around, while Claggett is still trying to adjust to Triple-A. Aceves also gives the Yanks a less valuable alternate if they decide that the conditions for a given game are too dangerous to risk putting a more valuable and more fragile starter out there.

For now, however, they’re still going with Phil Hughes tonight. I, like most of you I’m sure, have been anxious to see Hughes get back on the bump following his fantastic start in Detroit (6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 6 K, 99 pitches). The Hughes we saw in that start and his September 24 start against A.J. Burnett and the Blue Jays last year (8 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 6 K, 100 pitches) is the Phil Hughes we were all so excited about before his hamstring tear in early 2007. He was pinpointing his 93 mile per hour heater, dropping in wicked 70 mph curves, and keeping hitters off balance and off base with his new high-80s cutter. It would have been preferable for him to start in yesterday’s relatively low-profile game (a Sunday afternoon against the Angels with the Yankees leading 2-1 in the series), but Hughes’s problems have always been physical, not mental. If he’s feeling good, I don’t expect he’ll be terribly disturbed by trying to break the Yankees’ season 0-fer against the rival Sox.

Boston counters with 25-year-old lefty Jon Lester, who held the Yankees to two runs over six innings at Fenway. Lester’s only start since then was a dud (6 IP, 5 R in Cleveland), but curiously his peripherals for both starts were identical (7 H, 3 BB, 7 K)with one large exception: the Yankees didn’t hit a home run off Lester, while the Indians stroked two. Just two of Lester’s five starts have been good ones, but he has struck out 23 men in 19 innings over his last three, so odds are he’s just shaking off some April rust. Last year, he had a 5.40 ERA after six starts, then went 15-4 with a 2.82 the rest of the way.

Nick Swisher (elbow) returns to the lineup to face Lester. Jorge Posada will DH with Jose Molina catching. Melky Cabrera’s in center and hitting seventh. Angel Berroa bats ninth as Joe Girardi continues to deny Ramiro Peña plate appearances against lefties (he has just two, a walk and a strikeout). Peña has been weaker against lefties than righties in his minor league career, but not significantly so (though it’s hard to tell given his poor hitting overall).

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

2008 Record: 100-62
2008 Pythagorean Record: 88-74

Manager: Mike Scioscia
General Manager: Tony Reagins

Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Angel Stadium (103/102)

Who’s Replaced Whom:

• Kendry Morales replaces Casey Kotchman and Mark Teixeira
• Bobby Abreu replaces Garret Anderson
• Brian Fuentes replaces Francisco Rodriguez
• Shane Loux, Anthony Ortega, and Matt Palmer are filling in for John Lackey, Ervin Santana, and Dustin Mosely (all on DL)
• Rafael Rodriguez and Fernando Rodriguez are filling in for Darren Oliver and Kevin Jepsen (both on DL)

25-man Roster:

1B – Kendry Morales (S)
2B – Howie Kendrick (R)
SS – Erick Aybar (S)
3B – Chone Figgins (S)
C – Mike Napoli (R)
RF – Gary Matthews Jr. (S)
CF – Torii Hunter (R)
LF – Bobby Abreu (L)
DH – Juan Rivera (R)

Bench:

R – Jeff Mathis (C)
S – Maicer Izturis (IF)
R – Robb Quinlan (3B/1B)
R – Brandon Wood (IF)

Rotation:

L – Joe Saunders
R – Shane Loux
R – Anthony Ortega
R – Jered Weaver
R – Matt Palmer

Bullpen:

L – Brian Fuentes
R – Jose Arredondo
R – Scot Shields
R – Justin Speier
R – Jason Bulger
R – Rafael Rodriguez
R – Fernando Rodriguez

15-day DL:

RF – Vladimir Guerrero (torn pectoral)
RHP – John Lackey (forearm tightness)
RHP – Ervin Santana (elbow strain)
RHP – Dustin Moseley (elbow tightness)
LHP – Darren Oliver (shoulder stiffness)
RHP – Kevin Jepsen (back spasms)

60-day DL:

RHP – Kelvim Escobar (shoulder inflammation)

Typical Lineup:

S – Chone Figgins (3B)
S – Gary Matthews Jr. (RF)
L – Bobby Abreu (LF)
R – Torii Hunter (CF)
S – Kendry Morales (1B)
R – Mike Napoli (C)
R – Juan Rivera (DH)
R – Howie Kendrick (2B)
S – Erick Aybar (SS)

(more…)

Detroit Tigers

2008 Record: 74-88 (.457)
2008 Pythagorean Record: 78-84 (.481)

Manager: Jim Leyland
General Manager: Dave Dombrowski

Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Comerica Park (102/102)

Who’s Replaced Whom:

• Gerald Laird replaces Ivan Rodriguez
• Adam Everett replaces Edgar Renteria
• Josh Anderson replaces Gary Sheffield
• Jeff Larish inherits Matthew Joyce’s playing time
• Edwin Jackson replaces Kenny Rogers
• Rick Porcello replaces Nate Robertson in the rotation
• Nate Robertson replaces Freddy Dolsi in the bullpen
• Fernando Rodney inherits Todd Jones’ innings
• Brandon Lyon replaces Aquilino Lopez
• Joel Zumaya inherits Eddie Bonine’s innings
• Ryan Perry replaces Casey Fossum
• Juan Rincon replaces Clay Rapada, Gary Glover, Denny Bautista, and Kyle Farnsworth

25-man Roster:

1B – Miguel Cabrera (R)
2B – Placido Polanco (R)
SS – Adam Everett (R)
3B – Brandon Inge (R)
C – Gerald Laird (R)
RF – Magglio Ordoñez (R)
CF – Curtis Granderson (L)
LF – Josh Anderson (L)
DH – Carlos Guillen (S)

Bench:

R – Ramon Santiago (IF)
R – Ryan Raburn (OF)
L – Jeff Larish (3B/1B)
R – Dane Sardinha (C)

Rotation:

R – Justin Verlander
R – Edwin Jackson
R – Rick Porcello
R – Armando Galarraga
R – Zach Miner

Bullpen:

R – Fernando Rodney
R – Joel Zumaya
R – Brandon Lyon
L – Bobby Seay
R – Ryan Perry
R – Juan Rincon
L – Nate Robertson

15-day DL: RHP – Jeremy Bonderman (sore shoulder), LHP – Dontrelle Willis (anxiety disorder), OF/1B – Marcus Thames (strained oblique), C – Matt Treanor (torn hip labrum)

Typical Lineup:

L – Curtis Granderson (CF)
R – Placido Polanco (2B)
R – Magglio Ordoñez (RF)
R – Miguel Cabrera (1B)
S – Carlos Guillen (DH)
R – Gerald Laird (C)
R – Brandon Inge (3B)
L – Josh Anderson (LF)
R – Adam Everett (SS)

(more…)

Boston Red Sox

2008 Record: 95-67 (.586)
2008 Pythagorean Record: 95-67 (.586)

Manager: Terry Francona
General Manager: Theo Epstein

Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Fenway Park (108/106)

Who’s Replaced Whom:

• Jason Bay replaces Manny Ramirez
• Jonathan Van Every is filling in for Rocco Baldelli (DL), who replaces Coco Crisp
• Jeff Bailey is filling in for Mark Kotsay (DL), who replaces Sean Casey
• George Kottaras replaces Kevin Cash
• Nick Green is filling in for Jed Lowrie (DL) and Julio Lugo (DL), thus Gil Velazquez is replacing Alex Cora
• Brad Penny replaces Clay Buchholz (minors), Paul Byrd, and Bartolo Colon
• Ramon Ramirez replaces Mike Timlin
• Takashi Saito replaces David Aardsma
• Justin Masterson is filling in for Daisuke Matsuzaka (DL)
• Hunter Jones is filling in for Masterson in the bullpen

25-man Roster:

1B – Kevin Youkilis (R)
2B – Dustin Pedroia (R)
SS – Nick Green (R)
3B – Mike Lowell (R)
C – Jason Varitek (C)
RF – J.D. Drew (L)
CF – Jacoby Ellsbury (L)
LF – Jason Bay (R)
DH – David Ortiz (L)

Bench:

R – Jeff Bailey (OF/1B)
L – Jonathan Van Every (OF)
R – Gil Velazquez (IF)
L – George Kottaras (C)

Rotation:

L – Jon Lester
R – Josh Beckett
R – Justin Masterson
R – Tim Wakefield
R – Brad Penny

Bullpen:

R – Jonathan Papelbon
L – Hideki Okajima
R – Manny Delcarmen
L – Javier Lopez
R – Ramon Ramirez
R – Takashi Saito
L – Hunter Jones

15-day DL:

RHP – Daisuke Matsuzaka (shoulder strain)
SS – Jed Lowrie (wrist surgery)
SS – Julio Lugo (meniscus surgery)
OF – Rocco Baldelli (hamstring)
RHP – John Smoltz (shoulder surgery)
OF/1B – Mark Kotsay (back)

60-day DL:

RHP – Miguel Gonzalez (TJ)

Typical Lineup:

L – Jacoby Ellsbury (CF)
R – Dustin Pedroia (2B)
L – David Ortiz (DH)
R – Kevin Youkilis (1B)
L – J.D. Drew (RF)
R – Jason Bay (LF)
R – Mike Lowell (3B)
S – Jason Varitek (C)
R – Nick Green (SS)

(more…)

Oakland Athletics

2008 Record: 75-86 (.466)
2008 Pythagorean Record: 76-85 (.472)

Manager: Billy Beane
General Manager: Bob Geren

Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum (93/93)

Who’s Replaced Whom:

• Jason Giambi replaces Daric Barton (minors)
• Matt Holliday replaces Emil Brown and Frank Thomas
• Orlando Cabrera replaces Jack Hannahan (minors)
• Eric Chavez replaces as much of Bobby Crosby as his body will allow
• Travis Buck inherits Carlos Gonzalez’s playing time
• Nomar Garciaparra replaces Donnie Murphy, Cliff Pennington (minors), and Eric Patterson (minors)
• Landon Powell replaces Rob Bowen
• Trevor Cahill replaces Joe Blanton and Rich Harden
• Brett Anderson replaces Greg Smith
• Dallas Braden inherits the starts of Sean Gallagher (bullpen) and Gio Gonzalez (minors)
• Josh Outman is filling in for Justin Duchscherer (DL)
• Russ Springer replaces Huston Street
• Michael Wuertz replaces Chad Gaudin
• Drew Bailey replaces Jerry Blevins (minors) and Andrew Brown
• Sean Gallagher replaces Keith Foulke and Dan Meyer
• Dan Giese is filling in for Joey Devine (DL)

25-man Roster:
1B – Jason Giambi (L)
2B – Mark Elllis (R)
SS – Orlando Cabrera (R)
3B – Eric Chavez (L)
C – Kurt Suzuki (R)
RF – Travis Buck (L)
CF – Ryan Sweeney (L)
LF – Matt Holliday (R)
DH – Jack Cust (L)

Bench:

R – Nomar Garciaparra (IF)
R – Bobby Crosby (IF)
R – Rajai Davis (OF)
S – Landon Powell (C)

Rotation:

L – Dallas Braden
L – Dana Eveland
L – Brett Anderson
L – Josh Outman
R – Trevor Cahill

Bullpen:

R – Brad Ziegler
R – Russ Springer
R – Santiago Casilla
R – Michael Wuertz
R – Drew Bailey
R – Sean Gallagher
R – Dan Giese

15-day DL: RHP – Justin Duchscherer (elbow surgery); OF – Ben Copeland (shoulder sprain)
60-day DL: RHP – Joey Devine (elbow)

Typical Lineup:

L – Ryan Sweeney (CF)
R – Orlando Cabrera (SS)
L – Jason Giambi (1B)
R – Matt Holliday (LF)
L – Jack Cust (DH)
L – Eric Chavez (3B)
R – Kurt Suzuki (C)
L – Travis Buck (RF)
R – Mark Ellis (2B)

(more…)

Cleveland Indians

2008 Record: 81-81 (.500)
2008 Pythagorean Record: 85-77 (.525)

Manager: Eric Wedge
General Manager: Mark Shapiro

Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Progressive Field (103/102)

Who’s Replaced Whom:

• Mark DeRosa replaces Casey Blake and some of Jamey Carroll (DL)
• Shin-Soo Choo and Travis Hafner inherit playing time from Franklin Gutierrez
• Victor Martinez reclaims playing time from Kelly Shoppach and Ryan Garko
• Trevor Crowe is filling in for David Dellucci (DL)
• Tony Graffanino is filling in for Jamey Carroll (DL)
• Anthony Reyes replaces Paul Byrd
• Carl Pavano replaces CC Sabathia, Jake Westbrook (DL), and Matt Ginter
• Aaron Laffey is filling in for Scott Lewis (DL) who replaces Jeremy Sowers (minors)
• Fausto Carmona and Lewis take over starts from Laffey
• Kerry Wood replaces Edward Mujica and Juan Rincon and takes over the save opportunities given to Jensen Lewis, Rafael Betancourt, Rafael Perez, Masa Kobayashi, and Joe Borowski
• Joe Smith and Vinnie Chulk replace Tom Mastny, Jorge Julio, Joe Borowski, and assorted others
• Vinnie Chulk is filling Josh Barfield’s roster spot; Barfield replaces Andy Marte

25-man Roster:

1B – Ryan Garko (R)
2B – Asdrubal Cabrera (S)
SS – Jhonny Peralta (R)
3B – Mark DeRosa (R)
C – Victor Martinez (S)
RF – Shin-Soo Choo (L)
CF – Grady Sizemore (L)
LF – Ben Francisco (R)
DH – Travis Hafner (L)

Bench:

R – Kelly Shoppach (C)
S – Trevor Crowe (OF)
R – Tony Graffanino (IF)

Rotation:

L – Cliff Lee
R – Anthony Reyes
R – Fausto Carmona
R – Carl Pavano
L – Aaron Laffey

Bullpen:

R – Kerry Wood
R – Rafael Betancourt
L – Rafael Perez
R – Jensen Lewis
R – Masahide Kobayashi
R – Joe Smith
R – Vinnie Chulk
L – Zach Jackson

15-day DL: LHP – Scott Lewis (elbow strain), OF – David Dellucci (strained calf), IF – Jamey Carroll (broken hand)
60-day DL: RHP – Jake Westbrook (TJ)

Typical Lineup:

L – Grady Sizemore (CF)
R – Mark DeRosa (3B)
S – Victor Martinez (C)
L – Travis Hafner (DH)
R – Jhonny Peralta (SS)
L – Shin-Soo Choo (RF)
R – Ryan Garko (1B)
R – Ben Francisco (LF)
S – Asdrubal Cabrera (2B)

Note: Trevor Crowe is sharing left field with Ben Francisco. Otherwise, the most common lineup variation sees Martinez shift to first with Kelly Shoppach taking his place behind the plate and Garko’s spot in the lineup.

(more…)

Tampa Bay Rays

2008 Record: 97-65 (.599), AL Champs
2008 Pythagorean Record: 92-70 (.568)

Manager: Joe Maddon
General Manager: Andrew Friedman

Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Tropicana Field (102/103)

Who’s Replaced Whom:

• Pat Burrell replaces Eric Hinske and Jonny Gomes
• Gabe Kapler replaces Cliff Floyd
• Jeff Niemann replaces Edwin Jackson (and is holding a spot for David Price)
• Brian Shouse replaces Trever Miller
• Joe Nelson replaces Jason Hammel
• Lance Cormier replaces Gary Glover and Chad Bradford (DL)

25-man Roster:

1B – Carlos Peña (L)
2B – Akinori Iwamura (L)
SS – Jason Bartlett (R)
3B – Evan Longoria (R)
C – Dioner Navarro (S)
RF – Gabe Gross (L)
CF – B.J. Upton (R)
LF – Carl Crawford (L)
DH – Pat Burrell (R)

Bench:

S – Willy Aybar (1B/3B)
S – Ben Zobrist (UT)
R – Gabe Kapler (OF)
R – Shawn Riggans (C)

Rotation:

R – James Shields
L – Scott Kazmir
R – Matt Garza
R – Andy Sonnanstine
R – Jeff Niemann

Bullpen:

R – Troy Percival
R – Grant Balfour
L – J.P. Howell
R – Dan Wheeler
L – Brian Shouse
R – Joe Nelson
R – Lance Cormier

15-day DL: RHP – Chad Bradford (elbow surgery), RHP – Jason Isringhausen (rehab from September elbow surgery), OF – Fernando Perez (broken wrist)

Projected Lineup:

R – B.J. Upton (CF)
L – Carl Crawford (LF)
R – Evan Longoria (3B)
L – Carlos Peña (1B)
R – Pat Burrell (DH)
L – Gabe Gross (RF)
S – Dioner Navarro (C)
L – Akinori Iwamura (2B)
R – Jason Bartlett (SS)

Notes: Gross will platoon with Gabe Kapler and Ben Zobrist in right field.

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Baltimore Orioles

2008 Record: 68-93 (.422)
2008 Pythagorean Record: 73-88 (.451)

Manager: Dave Trembley
General Manager: Andy MacPhail

Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Oriole Park at Camden Yards (103/104)

Who’s Replaced Whom:

• Cesar Izturis replaces Juan Castro, Alex Cintron, Freddie Bynum, Luis Hernandez, and Brandon Fahey
• Gregg Zaun replaces Guillermo Quiroz
• Matt Wieters will replace Ramon Hernandez, though for now Chad Moeller has his roster spot.
• Felix Pie and Ryan Freel replace Kevin Millar
• Ty Wigginton replaces Jay Payton
• Robert Andino replaces Luis Montanez (minors)
• Koji Uehara replaces Daniel Cabrera
• Mark Hendrickson replaces Garrett Olson
• Adam Eaton replaces Brian Burres
• Alfredo Simon replaces Radhames Liz (minors) and Chris Waters (minors)
• Chris Ray replaces Chad Bradford (DL) and will soon replace George Sherrill as closer
• Danyz Baez replaces Lance Cormier

25-man Roster:

1B – Aubrey Huff (L)
2B – Brian Roberts (S)
SS – Cesar Izturis (S)
3B – Melvin Mora (R)
C – Gregg Zaun (S)
RF – Nick Markakis (L)
CF – Adam Jones (R)
LF – Felix Pie (L)
DH – Luke Scott (L)

Bench:

R – Ty Wigginton (UT)
R – Ryan Freel (UT)
R – Robert Andino (IF)
R – Chad Moeller (C)

Rotation:

R – Jeremy Guthrie
R – Koji Uehara
R – Alfredo Simon
L – Mark Hendrickson
R – Adam Eaton

Bullpen:

L – George Sherrill
R – Chris Ray
L – Jamie Walker
R – Jim Johnson
R – Danys Baez
R – Matt Albers
R – Dennis Sarfate
R – Brian Bass

15-day DL: LHP – Rich Hill

Projected lineup vs. RHP:

S – Brian Roberts (2B)
R – Adam Jones (CF)
L – Nick Markakis (RF)
L – Aubrey Huff (1B)
R – Melvin Mora (3B)
L – Luke Scott (DH)
S – Gregg Zaun (C)
L – Felix Pie (LF)
S – Cesar Izturis (SS)

Projected lineup vs. LHP:

S – Brian Roberts (2B)
R – Adam Jones (CF)
L – Nick Markakis (RF)
L – Aubrey Huff (1B)
R – Melvin Mora (3B)
R – Ty Wigginton (DH)
S – Gregg Zaun (C)
R – Ryan Freel (LF)
S – Cesar Izturis (SS)

Notes: There are 26 players listed for the O’s 25-man roster because fifth starter Adam Eaton, who was signed to a minor league deal this offseason, won’t be added until just before his first start next week.

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The Yankees can hand the AL East to the Rays by beating the Red Sox at Fenway tonight, and Joe Girardi has all of his starters in the lineup behind Alfredo Aceves to get the job done. As the Wild Card, the Red Sox would draw the Angels in the ALDS. Boston went 1-8 against the Halos this season.

Aceves has posted a 1.42 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in his three previous major league starts, all Yankee wins, and pitched at least six full innings in each without once reaching 90 pitches. Given that, he could get away with a stinker tonight and still enter spring training in the mix for the 2009 rotation. After facing Boston tonight, he’ll have faced three contenders in his four starts (also the Angels and White Sox). If he has another good outing, he might just go from being “in the mix” to being penciled in.

The Sox are slowly getting back up to health for the postseason. Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew, Sean Casey, Josh Beckett, and David Aardsma have all come off the DL in recent weeks, though Lowell and Drew are both still nursing their injuries (a torn hip labrum that will require offseason surgery and a stiff lower back, respectively). They’ll continue to be careful with their players, particularly given the rain that’s expected on the east coast this weekend, but will likely also want to get Lowell and Drew enough swings to feel comfortable heading in to the ALDS. Indeed, Lowell will DH tonight (with David Ortiz playing first base in presumptuous preparation for the World Series), while Drew continues to rest.

Speaking of that rain, there’s a chance it could wash out Mike Mussina’s opportunity to try for his 20th win of the season on Sunday, as there would be no need to play that game if the Rays clinch the division tonight or tomorrow. That said, the rain is expected to taper off come Sunday, and the Red Sox have rescheduled the retiring of Johnny Pesky’s number (6) until Sunday based on that forecast. Even if tonight or tomorrow’s game gets rained out and thus outright canceled, Moose will still go on Sunday, though given his history of near misses (including a memorable one in Fenway in 2001), one could imagine any number of Sunday scenarios that would bring Mussina thisclose to number 20 but leave him stuck at 19 for the third time in his career.

Oh, and if this series feels weird, it’s because the last time the Yankees faced a playoff-bound Red Sox team after being eliminated from the postseason themselves was September 21 to 23, 1990. The last time the Yankees faced a playoff-bound Red Sox team at Fenway Park after being eliminated from the postseason themselves was October 2 to 5, 1986.

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Though the Yankees are still alive with just six games left to play, a single loss or a single Red Sox win will eliminate them from the postseason for the first time since 1993. Elimination is all the more likely because the Yankees will be facing both A.J. Burnett and Roy Halladay yet again in this series, having already gone 2-7 in games started by those two this season. Of the Yankees’ 18 games against Toronto this season, 11 will have been started by Halladay or Burnett. The Yanks are 5-1 against Toronto this year in games started by other Blue Jay pitchers.

Fortunately, Mike Mussina has drawn Jesse Litsch tonight as he goes for this 19th win of the season. Mussina, who will start the final game of the season in Boston, has won 19 games in a season twice in his career, but never for the Yankees. The Yankees are 21-11 in Mussina’s starts this year, the fourth time in his eight years with the Bombers that the team has won 20 or more of the games he has started.

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The just-completed series against the White Sox had some interest beyond the impending closing of Yankee Stadium thanks to Chicago’s fight for the AL Central, Mike Mussina’s still-active quest for 20 wins, the return of Phil Hughes to the Yankee rotation, and the major league debuts of three Yankee prospects last night. This weekend’s series against the Orioles has none of that. These last three games will be about Yankee Stadium and nothing else. With that in mind, here are the three other opening and closing dates in the Stadium’s 86-year history:

April 18, 1923 – the first game at Yankee Stadium, Yankees beat the Red Sox 4-1 behind Bob Shawkey, who scored the first run at the new park on a single by third baseman Joe Dugan in the fourth inning. Ruth followed Dugan with a three-run homer, the Stadium’s first. Second baseman Aaron Ward had picked up the park’s first hit in the previous inning.

Sept. 30, 1973 – the final game at the original Stadium, Yankees lost to the Tigers 8-5 as Fritz Peterson and Lindy McDaniel combined to allow six runs in the eighth inning. Backup catcher Duke Sims, in his only start of the year, hits the last home run at the old park in the seventh. Winning pitcher John Hiller gets first baseman Mike Hegan to fly out to center fielder Mickey Stanley to end the game.

April 15, 1976 – the first game at the renovated Stadium, Yankees beat the Twins 11-4 with Dick Tidrow picking up the win with five shoutout innings in relief of Rudy May and Sparky Lyle getting the save. May gave up the first hit and home run in the remodeled Stadium to Disco Dan Ford in the top of the first. Twins second baseman Jerry Terrell, who led of the game with a walk, scored the first run ahead of Ford. The first Yankee hit was delivered by Mickey Rivers in the bottom of the first. The first Yankee home run at the redone park would come off the bat of Thurman Munson two days later.

The relocated St. Louis Browns first played at the Stadium as the Baltimore Orioles on May 5 and 6 of 1954, losing to Eddie Lopat and Allie Reynolds by scores of 4-2 and 9-0. The O’s first visit to the renovated stadium came in a three-game weekend series starting on May 14, 1976. The O’s took two of three in that series, beating Catfish Hunter in the opener. The first batter in that game was Ken Singleton, who struck out looking, but the next six Orioles delivered hits off Hunter, among them a two-run homer by O’s center fielder Reggie Jackson (!) as the O’s cruised to a 6-2 win behind Ross Grimsley.

For the curious, the action depicted in the Merv Rettenmund card pictured here occurred on August 9, 1970 in the seventh inning of the first game of a Sunday doubleheader. With the O’s leading 1-0 behind Jim Palmer, Rettenmund led off the seventh with a double off Fritz Peterson. Andy Etchebarren then hit a hot shot to third base that Jerry Kenney either booted or bobbled, allowing Etchebarren to reach and Rettenmund to advance. The photo on the card freezes the action as Kenney, ball in hand, checks Rettenmund at third base. The O’s would go on to score three unearned runs in that inning, but the Yanks got two in the eighth and two in the ninth to tie it, the latter two on a single by Roy White after Earl Weaver had replaced Palmer with Pete Richert. White would later end the game in the 11th with one out and Horace Clarke on first base by homering off Dick Hall to give the Yankees a 6-4 win.

Finally, here’s an account of the last game at the original Stadium from Glenn Stout’s outstanding Yankees Century:

The Yankees ended the season on September 30, closing down old Yankee Stadium to accommodate the scheduled renovation. In the final week of the season, the Hall of Fame hauled away a ticket booth, a turnstile, and other memorabilia. Anticipating souvenir takers, the club had already removed the center-field monuments and a hoard of equipment scheduled to follow the Yankees to Queens.

The club hired extra security to head off bad behavior, but the crowd of 32,328 arrived at the Stadium in an ugly mood and packing wrecking tools. Disappointed at the late season collapse, banners urging the Yankees to fire [manager Ralph] Houk ringed the park.

The game was only a few innings old when it became clear that souvenir hunters weren’t going to wait. In the outfield and the bleachers fans turned their backs on the game and started demolishing the park. The Yankees took the lead over Detroit but lost it in the fifth [sic]. When Houk came to the mound to change pitchers, exuberant fans waived parts of seats over their heads like the angry they had become.

As soon as Mike Hegan flied out to end the 8-5 loss, 20,000 fans swamped security forces and stormed the field. The Yanks had plans for objects like the bases, but the mob had other ideas. First-base coach Elston Howard scooped up the bag for a scheduled presentation to Mrs. Lou Gehrig, but he had to fight his way off the field, clutching the base like a fullback plowing through the line. Cops stood guard at home plate to make sure it went to Claire Ruth, but a fan stole second base, and third was nabbed by Detroit third baseman Ike Brown. Some 10,000 seats ended up being pulled loose.

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The Yankees haven’t seen the White Sox since late April, when the Yankees took two of three from the Pale Hose in Chicago. Surprisingly little has changed for the Sox since then. The White Sox had a slim 2.5 game lead in the AL Central when the Yankees left the Windy City on April 24, and arrive in the Bronx tonight holding an even smaller 1.5 lead over the Minnesota Twins. The Sox briefly slipped down to third place in early May (though they were never more than 2.5 games out of first), but otherwise have been battling the Twins for the division lead all season long. The two teams haven’t been more than three games apart since June 19, when the Sox had a four-game lead, and the White Sox haven’t been more than a game behind since May 15.

A year ago, the White Sox stumbled to a surprising fourth-place finish with a mere 72 wins due largely to the impotence of their offense, which fell from third-best in the AL in 2006 (5.36 runs per game) to dead last in the league (4.28 R/G). It should come as no surprise, then, that the Sox’s resurgence this year has been led by their resurgent offense, which has scored 5.05 runs per game, the fifth-best rate in the league.

Leading that charge, and thus throwing his had into the ring for league MVP, has been Carlos Quentin, who was acquired in the offseason from the Diamondbacks in exchange for minor league first-baseman Chris Carter, who was subsequently flipped to Oakland in the Dan Haren deal. Slotted in as the D’backs’ starting right fielder last year, Quentin suffered through an injury-plagued season and struggled mightily in his major league stints, but crushed the ball when rehabbing in the minors. A career .313/.413/.527 hitter in the minor leagues, the 25-year-old Stanford product won the Chisox left field job out of camp this year and proceeded to set the junior circuit on fire with .288/.394/.571 rates and the league lead in home runs.

Unfortunately, the fragile Quentin broke his right wrist when punching his bat during an at-bat on September 1 and is out for the season. Similarly, first baseman Paul Konerko is out indefinitely after spraining a ligament in his right knee during a run-down on September 9. Konerko suffered a decline last year that was part of the offense’s problem and has continued that decline this year. Still, his injury moves Nick Swisher to first base, creating a hole in the lineup filled by minor league veteran Dewayne Wise. The 30-year-old Wise has hit well for the Sox this year, but he’s a career .220/.256/.389 hitter in the major leagues even with his solid 91 plate appearances as a White Sock mixed in. Quentin’s injury makes room for deadline acquisition Ken Griffey Jr. to play full time despite his having hit just .245/.330/.347 since returning to the AL.

That all leaves the Chicago offense in the hands of the resurgent Jermaine Dye. Dye was the World Series MVP when the Sox won in 2005 and an MVP candidate in 2006 (.315/.385/.622), but last year he was one of the main reasons that the offense collapsed as he was barely above league average, and was far worse for most of the season prior to a hot August. This year he’s back to bashing (.295/.348/.555), but with Quentin out, the only other man in the lineup who’s meaningfully above average is 37-year-old Jim Thome, who has been healthier this year than last, but less productive on a game-to-game basis.

The Sox’s postseason hopes are further imperiled by the season-ending Achilles’ tendon rupture suffered by Jose Contreras, which has handed the fifth-starter’s job to rookie Clayton Richard, who has a 7.09 ERA in seven major league starts.

Still, this year the Central has been one of those divisions that no one seems to want to win. The Indians came within a game of the World Series last year, but never got off the mat this year and cashed out early by flipping C.C. Sabathia to the Brewers three weeks before the deadline. The Tigers were the preseason favorites, but have traced a parabolic path this season, starting out poorly, looking unbeatable in June, and since falling back below even the Indians. The Twins have been in the fight all season but took an inexplicably long time to bring Francisco Liriano back up from the minors (he’s gone 5-0 with a 1.57 ERA since returning). In fact, that could have been the difference in the division had Quentin not gotten hurt. Now things are back in flux, and the White Sox will arrive tonight desperate to keep their noses out in front.

They send reliable lefty Mark Buehrle to the mound tonight. Buehrle has made 30 starts in each of his eight full seasons in the major leagues and could pass 200 innings for the eighth-straight season with a strong outing tonight. Buehrle had a rough August (5.86 ERA), but has allowed just one run in 13 1/3 innings in September. He’ll face off against Alfredo Aceves, who aced the Angels in his first major league start his last time out and will make his first start in the Bronx tonight.

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The Rays enter their final series against the Yankees in a virtual dead-heat with the Angels and Cubs for the best record in the majors. Everyone saw the Angels and Cubs coming, but even the bold prediction made by Nate Silver’s PECOTA only had the Rays winning 88 games, a total they can achieve with a victory over the Yanks tonight. So what happened? How did a franchise that had never won more than 70 games in a single season and had finished in last place in the AL East in all but one of it’s previous ten seasons suddenly find themselves atop not just the most competitive division on baseball, but challenging for the best record in the game?

The short answer is pitching and defense and just enough offense to make the first two count. A year ago, the Rays went 66-96 while enduring by far the worst defense in the majors according to defensive efficiency. This year they have the majors’ best defensive efficiency. A year ago they turned just 65 percent of all balls put in play against them into outs. This year, they’re turning 70.9 percent of those balls into outs. That’s no small matter. The Rays had roughly 4,500 balls put in play against them last year (not counting home runs, which are typically not playable by the defense). The difference between a 65 percent and 70.9 percent defensive efficiency on 4,500 balls in play is about 265 outs, or the equivalent of nearly ten shutouts. Taken another way, the improvement in the Rays defense has shortened their opponents scoring opportunities by an average of 1.6 outs per game over the entire season. There’s a lot of rounding going on in those numbers, but the impact is clear and impressive, and quite reminiscent of how the Rockies got to the World Series last year.

This improvement was no accident. It is exactly what the Rays had in mind when they asked that shortstop Jason Bartlett be included in the deal that sent Delmon Young and others to the Twins for Matt Garza and another pitching prospect. Bartlett has disappointed in the field, but the team’s decision to move Akinori Iwamura to second base and (eventually) install Evan Longoria at third base has had a lot to do with their improved defense, and the overall effect of an infield of Longoria, Bartlett, Iwamura, and Carlos Peña has done wonders for the Rays’ pitching staff, as has having B.J. Upton in center field for a full season to complement Carl Crawford in left.

One might suspect that superior pitching deserves some of the credit for this statistical improvement on defense, but research has shown that good pitchers to not consistently post above-average numbers on balls in play. Rather, I offer that it’s the defense that has helped the pitching improve. If a pitcher knows that his defenders are more likely to catch up with his mistakes, he’s more likely to pitch with the confidence necessary to challenge hitters, which is a key to success in the major leagues. (Don’t take my word for it, click the Rockies link above and see what Brian Fuentes had to say about the Rockies’ defense last year).

Consider the improvement made by former Dodger prospect Edwin Jackson. Last year he walked 4.92 men per nine innings and posted a 5.76 ERA. This year his walks are down by more than one per nine innings and his ERA is down to a league-average 4.06. Consider also sophomore Andy Sonnanstine, a pitcher who walks almost no one to begin with. Sonnanstine has seen his strikeout rate dip by more than a K per nine innings this year and has been handsomely rewarded for his increased reliance on his defense as his ERA had dropped from 5.85 to 4.47.

Opposing batters are having roughly league average success on balls in play against Jackson and Sonnanstine this year, which is a huge improvement over what happened last year when Sonnanstine’s BABIP was .333 and Jackson’s was .349. Put those two behind lefty ace Scott Kazmir, James Shields, who emerged as a solid number two last year, and Garza, and the Rays have one of the best rotations in baseball. In fact, the Blue Jays, led by Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett, are the only American League team with a lower starters’ ERA than Tampa this season. A year ago, the Rays had the third-worst starters’ ERA in baseball.

The Rays have experienced a similar turnaround in their bullpen, which was baseball’s worst last year with a staggering 6.16 ERA but has shaved more than 2.5 runs off that mark this year to post the third-best pen ERA in the AL. One big reason for that has been the emergence of 25-year-old lefty J.P. Howell, a failed starter victimized by a .381 BABIP a year ago. Coming into this season, Howell hadn’t pitched in relief since rookie ball, but with that improved defense behind him, he’s thriving in his new role. With veteran Trever Miller around as a match-up lefty (southpaws are hitting .207/.313/.280 against him this year), Joe Maddon has used Howell for longer stints. Howell has responded with a 2.44 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning while leading the Rays’ pen in innings pitched.

Veteran Dan Wheeler, acquired at last year’s trading deadline for utility man Ty Wigginton, has been another boon to the pen, filling in ably when rejuvenated closer Troy Percival has gone down with injuries. An even lower-profile acquisition from last year’s deadline, Grant Balfour, picked up from Milwaukee for Seth McClung, didn’t hit the major league roster until the end of May, but he’s been a revelation ever since, posting a 1.63 ERA and striking out 12.87 men per nine innings. After missing most of 2005 and 2006 due to both elbow and shoulder surgery, former Twins prospect Balfour was similarly dominant in the minors last year and could prove to be a real find, provided he doesn’t get hurt again.

Combine those drastic and related improvements in pitching and defense, and the end result is a tremendous decrease in the number of runs the Rays have allowed. Last year, the then-Devil Rays allowed 944 runs. This year, with just 18 games left to play, they’ve allowed a mere 582. That’s an average of nearly two runs less per game (1.79 to be exact). With their opponents scoring just 4.04 runs per game, the Rays offense has had a much easier row to hoe, which is good, because the offense is the one thing that’s gone backwards this year, though that was the bargain the team intended to strike when it traded Young.

That’s why the Rays have gone from worst to first, but now that they’ve done that, they seem to have a momentum of their own. They’ve won six games more than their run differential would suggest, and early August injuries to stars Longoria and Crawford haven’t slowed them down a lick. In fact, August was their best month of the season as they went 21-7 (.750). You can credit manager Joe Maddon with some of that. As the Yankees saw in spring training, this Rays team has fight. Indeed, after opening September with a 1-6 skid against intradivision opponents (including dropping two of three to the Yankees at home), the Rays staged a pair of late-game rallies to fend off the charging Red Sox at Fenway. On Tuesday they staged a ninth-inning comeback against Jonathan Papelbon to keep the Red Sox from passing them in the standings, and Wednesday night they matched the Sox zero-for-zero for 13 innings before dropping a three-spot in the top of the 14th to push the Sox back another game.

The Rays haven’t changed much since we last saw them. Longoria has been activated, but has yet to return to action (though he could do so this weekend). Former A’s first baseman Dan Johnson has been added to the Rays stock of September call-ups and made an immediate impact with the game-tying home run off Papelbon on Tuesday night in his first at-bat in the majors since April 2. The Rays have also called up former Yankee farmhand-turned-minor league journeyman Michel Hernandez. Hernandez has been with five organizations in five years since making his major league debut as a Yankee in 2003, and has yet to see major league action for any of them. This is his second stint in the Rays’ organization in that span.

A “jobber,” in pro wrestling terminology, is a no-name wrestler whose primary purpose is to give the popular heroes and villains someone to beat in between hyped-up grudge matches. At this point in the 2008 season, the Yankees are nothing but a jobber. Of course, the jobber can’t let on that he’s only in the ring so that the more famous wrestler has something to do, so they strut about and flex their muscles just the same as the other guy. Joe Girardi has become quite practiced at this, but much like Iron Mike Sharpe or Leaping Lanny Poffo, he’s not really fooling anybody.

In this week’s three-game series in Anaheim, the Yankees could be the jobber against whom the Angels clinch the AL West. Our own Bobby “The Brain” Timmermann believes that could make the Halos the first team to clinch a division against the Yankees since the Blue Jays did so in 1985 (though, unlike those Jays, the Angels won’t be eliminating the Yankees in the process). The Angels magic number entering this series is three. Any combination of Angels wins or Rangers loses totaling three will give the Angels their fourth AL West title in the last five years.

The Yankees could also be the jobber against whom Francisco “K-Rod” Rodriguez ties or even breaks Bobby Thigpen’s 18-year-old single-season saves record. Thigpen saved 57 games for the White Sox in 1990. Rodriguez has 55 saves so far this year. Heck, it’s entirely possible that Rodriguez could tie the record and clinch the division all at once against the Yankees. That’s pretty special. It’s a good thing MLB sent one of their most talented jobbers to take the fall.

The Yankees remain mildly interesting because of their starting pitchers. Carl Pavano will make his fourth consecutive start tonight facing Jon Garland. Hot prospect Alfredo Aceves will make his first major league start tomorrow against Jered Weaver, who was pushed back a day after accidentally cutting his hand in on the bench in the visitors dugout at Comerica Park last Tuesday. Wednesday will find Andy Pettitte, whose Yankee career could be winding down, back on the bump against Ervin Santana.

The Yankees’ primary interest, however, will likely be in scouting pending free agents Garland, first baseman Mark Teixeira, and perhaps even left fielder and former Yankee Juan Rivera. I don’t expect the Yankees to show much interest in Garland, though he could be useful as a league-average innings eater if Pettitte doesn’t return, or Rivera, who is yet another former Yankee farmhand whose reluctance to draw walks undermines his other talents, but they’ll certainly be in the mix on Teixeira, a Gold Glove defender and switch-hitter who has hit .360/.441/.610 since being acquired from Atlanta. Of course, given those credentials, his $12.5 million salary this year, and his agent, Scott Boras, the Yankees may have to take out a second mortgage on the new Stadium to meet Teixeira’s price.

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It was nice to see the Yankees take two of three from the division leading Rays. It was nice to see them score 33 runs in their last four games. Unfortunately, neither really means much. They Rays still have a double-digit lead on Bombers, and the Red Sox are still 7.5 games ahead of them in the Wild Card chase, now with just 22 games left in the regular season.

Tonight, after a 3,000-mile flight, the Yanks take on the only team in the league that has been mathematically eliminated, the 54-85 Seattle Mariners. The M’s are back in spring training mode, using their meaningless September to audition some of their minor leaguers and try some others out in new roles. The big story tonight is 23-year-old fireballer Brandon Morrow, who will make his first major league start after having made 100 relief appearances for the M’s over the last two seasons. Morrow posted a 1.47 ERA in relief this year, has struck out 10.17 men per nine innings in his big league career, and supposedly has a six-pitch repertoire.

If that sounds like a recipe for a frustrating night of Yankee baseball, focus on the fact that the Yankees are also auditioning a starter tonight. Andy Pettitte is pitching on a one-year deal, so the Yankees will likely be watching his last few starts for signs that it would be worth offering him another one-year deal for 2009. Last year, Pettitte’s strong second half helped propel the Yankees into the playoffs, but this year, the veteran lefty has posted a 5.54 ERA since the All-Star break, a 7.04 ERA in three season starts against the Red Sox, and his ERA+ on the season is below league average for the first time in his 14-year career. In his last two starts, Pettitte has been roughed up for 12 runs in 11 innings.

Pettitte’s value this season has been largely tied up in his ability to take the ball every five days and pitch deep into games. He and Mike Mussina are the only Yankees not to have missed a start this season, and the 36-year-old Pettitte is averaging more innings per start (just less than 6 1/3 innings per turn) than the 39-year-old Mussina. Given that, the solution to the Pettitte question ultimately has more to do with how the rest of the 2009 rotation shapes up than how Pettitte himself performs this September. If the Yankees can fill up the five rotation spots without him, they should probably do so, but if they’re going to need an innings-eater to take one spot, bringing back fan favorite Pettitte on a discounted one-year deal would be the smartest and safest option.

The other options for next year’s rotation include Chien-Ming Wang (who will be returning from the foot injury that ended his season in June), roughly 150 innings of Joba Chamberlain (minus any that might be used in another workload-limiting stint in the bullpen), the 40-year-old Mussina (who looks likely to re-sign), a big-ticket free agent the team might not land, and a group of youngsters and minor league vets led by Phil Hughes and Alfredo Aceves. Given that, having Pettitte on hand to eat up 200 innings would likely be worth the one-year investment, particularly as a backup plan to that big-ticket free agent, but if Andy’s unable to pull out of his current slump, it will force the Yankees to think much harder about whether or not they really want him occupying a rotation spot that a prospect could emerge to fill and Darrell Rasner or his like could fill in the interim.

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Congratulations to the Rays on their first winning season, playoff berth, and division championship: You’ve come a long way, baby.

The Yankees are 7-5 against the Rays this year, which is a solid showing against a team that leads them by 12 games in the standings. Sadly, it’s done them little good. The Yankees could sweep their remaining six games against Tampa Bay, match their record against third-part opponents, and still finish six games out in the AL East.

We’re in an odd stage of the Yankees’ season. Best I can tell, just about all of the fanbase and most of the media have come to grips with the reality that the Yankees will miss the postseason for the first time since 1993, but because they’re still “just” seven games out of the Wild Card with 26 left to play, the team itself, as well at its broadcasters, need to at least pretend they’re still in it. It’s true that it ain’t over ’til it’s over, but the Yankees have to gain one game on the Red Sox over the course of each remaining series to arrive in Boston on September 26 in position to pass Boston with a series win, and even that doesn’t account for the second-place team in the AL Central, whom the Yankees also trail in the Wild Card race. It’s just not going to happen.

What’s left now is saying farewell to Yankee Stadium, preparing for next year–be it by giving Alfredo Aceves a start or two in place of Pavano or Ponson, letting Brett Gardner start in center field, or hoping Hideki Matsui gets on a hot streak to increase his trade value–and Mike Mussina’s pursuit of 20 wins, which continues tonight in St. Petersburg, Florida.

Mussina enters tonight’s game with 16 wins and will have five starts left afterwards (against the Mariners, Rays, White Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays, and Red Sox). The Yankees have won Mussina’s last six starts, but Moose earned the win in just three of them due to late-breaking run support. Still, Mussina’s been excellent over that stretch, posting 2.93 ERA and averaging 6 2/3 innings. In fact, over his last 17 starts, Mussina has a 2.92 ERA and has averaged nearly 6 2/3 innings per start. Only once over that stretch has he failed to complete six innings and only once has he allowed more than four runs (both coming in the same game against the Orioles). Still, he has just 9 wins in those 17 starts, due in part to losing scores such as 4-2 (twice), 3-2, and 2-1. That makes four wins in six starts a tall order, and four wins in five starts should he lose tonight extremely unlikely.

Moose’s mount opponent tonight is Matt Garza, who has displayed a Verlander-like inconsistency. Over his last nine starts, Garza has held the opposition scoreless four times, including two shutouts. In the other five games, he has allowed 24 runs in 27 1/3 innings. The trend: three of those four scoreless outings came against Toronto. The exception: one of the shutouts was a two-hit, nine-K performance against the Rangers in Arlington. Garza has faced the Yankees once this year, shutting them out over seven innings back on May 12. In his next start, he gave up seven runs in 4 1/3 innings. Such is Garza.

No Excuses

Both Garza and ace Scott Kazmir (who faces Darrell Rasner on Thursday) spent time on the DL early in the season. Carl Crawford and rookie sensation Evan Longoria are on the DL now, with Crawford likely out for the year. Rocco Baldelli missed most of the season, though he’s recently returned as Cliff Floyd’s platoon partner at DH. Floyd also spent time on the DL earlier in the season, as did Longoria’s predecessor/replacement Willy Aybar, All-Star catcher Dioner Navarro, infielder Ben Zobrist (who is currently platooning with Eric Hinske in left field), last year’s breakout star Carlos Peña, shortstop Jason Bartlett, and a handful of relievers, among them closer Troy Percival, who is due to return from his third DL stint tonight, and last year’s closer Al Reyes, who pitched himself off the team after returning from his DL stint. Beyond that, Crawford was below average when healthy, Bartlett’s been a huge disappointment on both sides of the ball, and B.J. Upton is slugging a mere .397 with just 8 homers after slugging .508 with 24 jacks in fewer plate appearances last year.

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