1.  Harold Reynolds basically made the same case last night on ESPN (not sure of the show, it was between 6 and 6:30- I caught it at the gym)- he said you couldn't, under any circumstances, discount defense.

I happen to wholeheartedly agree- A-Rod probably saves a fair amount of runs with his glove in addition to the offense he generates on a daily basis. Alex also runs well & steals bases- something Ortiz just can't give you. Now obviously if you hit the ball far enough (or have Manny behind you knocking homers), you don't necessarily HAVE to run well.

They also flashed a stat that showed players' home runs that counted as game-winning RBI. A-Rod actually lead the league with 13, and Ortiz was a little further down the list with 7 (tied with one other player). Granted if you hit a game-winning homer in the team's last at bat, it tends to appear more dramatic. Perhaps Ortiz's late-inning heroics are more a product of a weak Boston bullpen than anything else. If Mariano blew more saves, then maybe A-Rod would be making the ESPN highlights as much as Big Papi.

2.  Is Ortiz that bad of a fielder? It seems that the team would be more flexible if he could play 1st. Also, he doesn't appear to mind DHing. Some other hit-first 1B(Giambi and Frank Thomas come to mind) prefer playing 1st and it shows in their stats.

3.  All excellent points, pistolpete. Late-inning heroics are like RBI, much more dependent on one's team than one's own abilities.

I just don't see how anyone could pick Papi over A-Rod. FWIW, I also don't see how anyone could pick Andruw Jones over Pujols in the NL MVP.

Unless something drastic happens these last couple weeks, I think the MVP races are done.

4.  Well, the Red Sox would rather have Kevin Millar playing first before Ortiz. That should answer your question. It is not for nothing that the Red Sox have acquired Mientkiewicz and Olerud mid-season two years in a row.

5.  Was it last year, or the year before, on an ESPN (IIRC) game between the Sawx and Yanks, when a ball was hit down the first base line and right through Papi's glove. He tried to make it seem like the ball went through the glove's webbing, but really the ball went under it. To put it another way, I'd use Giambi as a LIDR if Ortiz was my firstbaseman.

6.  PistolPete,

Just a quick thank you for bringing those stats to light. I missed B-Ball Tonight, and would have had no idea. It makes sense though, fans believe what they percieve and see on SportsCenter, not what actually is happening. That just makes the case stronger for Arod's MVP.

I know I am in the minority here, but if the Yankees make the playoffs, and Giambi keeps this up, say um, he ends with 90+RBI, shit, he has 79? He could feasibly grab 100, take that with his OPB which led the league MOST of the year, even when he was slumping. I think you can make a good case for him, well, if the term "valuable" has any meaning left with respect to that award, at all.

Too bad the Writers vote on this one. Giambi has no shot.

I like to write, as you can see, but who's half baked idea was it to give morons like me the right to vote on these awards?

7.  Ortiz may find out what he's got with the leather next year!

Do not think for one second that Theo Epstien has not already drwan up trade scenarios for Barry, because he most certainly has.

It is simply a matter of which AL team Barry will grace, not if he will.

8.  7 Stormer, I'm sure Theo has come up with scenarios for getting Bonds. He's a smartt guy, and smart guys consider all the possibilities, right? That said, I'd be shocked if the Sox actually tried to get Bonds.

Theo's plans/thoughts aside, why would the Giants ever trade him? He'll be a HUGE draw next year, catching the Babe and maybe Aaron as well. And he makes them a contender in the weak NL West. Peter Magowan is too smart to trade that $$$ away, and too savvy to angry the fans by trading perhaps the best ballplayer ever. I just don't see it happening.

9.  Womack for MVP. W/O him we wouldn't appreciate really good ball players.

10.  "Womack for MVP. W/O him we wouldn't appreciate really good ball players. "

Or even average ones...

11.  rbj, that was June 30 of last year.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=240630110

12.  "To put it another way, I'd use Giambi as a LIDR if Ortiz was my firstbaseman."

Man, I think that's a bit harsh. Ortiz handled himself OK at first in the WS last year...

But back on topic: I don't see how A-Rod can possibly lose to Ortiz, short of a major slump these last weeks. He leads Ortiz (though not by much) in most batting stats, and even if A-Rod is considered just an average fielder, that right there should be enough.

Bonds in Boston? I don't really like the thought of that...and I'm a Sox fan.

13.  Shoot, on batting alone, Ortiz is not in the A-Rod class.

Runs Created Above Average (RCAA) is a Lee Sinins creation. It is the difference between a player's Runs Created total and the total for an average player who used the same amount of his team's outs.

As of 9/10, Alex Rodriguez had 65 RCAA - and Ortiz had 48.

No contest.

14.  Thanks Jen.
A Manny, Barry, Papi lineup, ouch. I just don't see how workable it is: Manny-Barry rotate LF-DH, David fulltime 1B? rotate David-Barry 1B-DH?

Yeah, I'm harshing abit on Ortiz's glove, but he is a fulltime DH, Jason does play the field.

15.  Shaun,

Because they are just tired of him. He played them all year, and lied to them in order to get his 2006 option picked up. They need to go younger, the revenue notwithstanding, he is a free agent after 2006 anyhow, why risk an injury that renders him valueless on the market, why not deal him now?

Further, he has inimated, through his agent, that one of the reasons he is playing now, is too let the AL know he's ready, he'll be ready to go.

The Sox are a perfect fit, they have made no secret of their desire to get rid of Millar, who are they going to play at first next year, Olerud?

Nope, Papi is ready to play the field regularly, in fact, he knows he has no choice, if he wants to be mentioned with the top players, and garner a big contract once he becomes a free agent.

Ortiz at first, Bonds DH. I stick by it.

16.  And Shaun, and post that includes "Peter McGowan" and "Smart" in the same sentence, come on.

17.  Not to mention the likelyhood that the Red Sox trade Manny, it's a real possibility,

18.  Re: Shaun #3: Uhm, Derrek Lee doesn't get NL consideration? His stats are almost an exact match for Pujols's and he leads him by a hair in EQA and WARP (while trailing by a hair in VORP). I don't know when the heck Pujols started stealing bases (simply unfair), but Lee always has and he's got Albert beat with the glove as well.

The only reason to say Pujols has an edge on Lee is the performance of their respective teams, which doesn't really seem fair. The again, to not give Pujols the MVP now that Barry's finally out of the picture also doesn't seem fair.

Still, as far as I'm concerned the NL MVP race is a toss up and has three more weeks to go.

In the AL, however, it's Rodriguez by a mile. And Giambi's been tremendous, but don't even give me that. You can't compare Rodriguez's total package from day one to Giambi's offense-only contributions over the past two and a half months, no matter how impressive Giambi has been. Ditto re: Ortiz's one-dimensional game. There's not contest (though I fear that if the Yanks miss the playoffs the writers will think there is).

19.  Bonds would never go to Boston. Wasn't it just last year that he expressed his total distaste for the city and fans? He called it a racist town. More likely to see him in pinstripes unless the Boss has gotten cold feet about expensive steroid-using superstars coming to the Bronx after the fiasco that has been Giambi. Er...maybe he hasn't been a fiasco.

20.  "A Manny, Barry, Papi lineup, ouch. I just don't see how workable it is: Manny-Barry rotate LF-DH, David fulltime 1B? rotate David-Barry 1B-DH?"

I'll bet my 2006 salary that Manny is wearing Mets pinstripes by the beginning of next season....and that Beltran is the Sawx CF.

21.  Cliff- here's a good link:

http://www.baseballlibrary.com/baseballlibrary/submit/Brolin_Jonathan4.stm

It goes into the MVP voting thought process- as in, is it based on pure stats or a player's ability to propel his team into the postseason...?

Basically the final verdict was as follows: since the award's inception, roughly 70% of MVP winners have been on teams that made the playoffs. So if the numbers are close between A-Rod and Papi, and the Yankees don't make the playoffs, I'd put my money on Papi. Not that I would agree with the reasoning, but that's the way it's been going in the last decade or so.

However, I couldn't tell you the number of DH's that were eligible in all those years, so this is still an interesting debate...

22.  Stormer, I see where you're coming from - you make some good points. But I don't think the Giants would do it. I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but I think $$$ and PR considerations are too much.

And Nick makes a great point - Barry has a no trade clause, I imagine (and 10-5 rights if he doesn't) - I don't see him agreeing to come to Boston.

BTW, what's up with 16? Magowan may be a Selig-crony sometimes, which I don't care for, but I've never heard anything about him being stupid.

John Perricone, if you're out there, what do you think?

23.  What about all those rumors of Bonds finishing his career with the Angels? That scenario makes the most sense, although I agree with Shaun that the Giants aren't going to let him go at this point unless he's simply unable to play the field.

24.  Cliff,

You do not think it is Andruw Jones in a walk in the NL?

I mean if "valuable" has any meaning.

Shoot, if it is "valuable," Pedro should get more votes than Albert and Derrek.

As for Derrik, the Corn Cob Cubs would have sucked with, or without him.

Remember Alex winning it with Texas? I will have to do some research, but that sure signalled to me, that the valuable element of the award was gone forever.

If it is "best" than yes, it is a toss between Albert and Derrek.

25.  unpopster,

Never thought of that trade, manny for Carlos. If it was a fantasy league, I'd do it from either end of the equation. The trade is silly, but I love that kind of speculation.

26.  Please stop mentioning Papi for MVP, even the writers won't give him the award, even if he hits 20 home runs, one every day for the remaninder of the season.

27.  Cliff, I did omit Derrek Lee, but only because he seems to be out of the mainstream discussion. He certainly has a strong case for it, as you rightly point out.

I'm a big Lee fan, however, I'm guessing he finishes third when the ballots are counted. Sad but true.

BTW, what about Miguel Cabrera? .329/.391/.574/.965OPS; 8.8 WARP1, 9.0WARP3, and 3rd in NL in VORP - all better numbers than Jones.

If things were right, it'd be Pujols/Lee 1/2, Cabrera 3, Jones 4 in the voting. If that happens I'll be very surprised.

28.  Cliff,

DH will not win the MVP, not without winning the Triple Crown First, that is the only scenario I can imagine it happening.

As one astute poster noted earlier, DH notwithstanding, the fewest games played on defense by any MVP, ever, was 97 by Don Baylor.

Even the writers get this one.

ShaunP.

Thanks. However, how often do we take ball players at their word. I'm sure if I search, I can find Schilling bad mouthing the Red Sox, or one of it's all time players somewhere.

Bonds, it will not HAVE to be Boston, if just seems like the best fit. Every town is a racist town to Bonds, and considering I live in LA now, if he wants racist, choosing Anaheim, would be an awfully good choice. Anaheim and Irvine are the Birmingham, Ala, of the West Coast, only with a college education.

The no-trade is an obstacle, I agree, but a World Series ring could sure assuage his dislike for Boston. He cannot play 155 games in the field next year, it is that simple, and if he doesn't, it could take him 3 more seasons to catch Aaron.

Further, I think he underestimates the level of dissatisfaction, anger, tiredness, bitterness, and most importantly betrayal that the Giants ownership feels for him. The fans will show in SF for Sushi, and Pressed Tofu no matter what next year brings, especially if they can get some exciting young guys from Boston, and yes, even NY. He is out the door after 2006 anyway, Bonds' knows damn well that the Giants are not going to extend or resign him, he can get guaranteed long term money through a trade, something he might not get if he plays out in SF all of next year, and if we can all agree on one thing I hope, Bonds likes money, Pete Rose he aint, but he's close.

Boston - - - Better us than them, right?

29.  Dayn Perry wrote an article this week (http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/4851966)about why he believes that Derek Lee should be the NL MVP. In it, he provides the official rules given to the voters:

Dear Voter:
There is no clear-cut definition of what Most Valuable means. It is up to the individual voter to decide who was the Most Valuable Player in each league to his team.

The MVP need not come from a division winner or other playoff qualifier.

Actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense.

Number of games played.

General character, disposition, loyalty and effort.

Former winners are eligible.

Members of the committee may vote for more than one member of a team.

You are also urged to give serious consideration to all your selections, from 1 to 10. A 10th-place vote can influence the outcome of an election. You must fill in all 10 places on your ballot.

Keep in mind that all players are eligible for MVP, and that includes pitchers and designated hitters.

Only regular-season performances are to be taken into consideration.

30.  Cliff,

My perfect world scenario:

If only one player exists, that we can almost difinitively identify, whose team would not make the playoffs but for his contributions (DH Excluded), he wins, no argument.

If more than one -- or none-- player exists which satisfy the above requirement, we look to the actual impact that player had on the teams position, whatever that position might be. We cannot look at intrinsic qualities, that is what the HALL is for.

Doing the above would certainly save every Billy "My formula for a mediocre team" Beane hater out there, like myself, from WARP, RCAA, RCA, MTA, CTA, NAACP, ACLU, NOW, RCWSF1 (runs scored while starting from 1st) GMC etc. etc. etc.

Hey, Cabrera's not even the MVP of that team, that is either Willis or Jones, Cabrera's been a' loafin in the field and bases al year to boot, no pun intended.

31.  Well, the writers did give a gold glove award to Palmerio (IIRC) despite his only playing 28 games in the field that year, so depending upon what round of drinks they're on, they may give the MVP to a DH.

I always thought of Bonds to Oakland. Why the preference for LAAngels?

32.  Alex,

"Keep in mind that all players are eligible for MVP, and that includes pitchers and designated hitters."

As far as pitchers, that really needs to be moved up the list, I know the list has no "order" but psychology places a higher emphasis on the items near the top. It should at least be above: "You are also urged to give serious consideration to all your selections, from 1 to 10. A 10th-place vote can influence the outcome of an election. You must fill in all 10 places on your ballot."

Oh, and it would be perfectly acceptable to remove the DH from consideration, sorry Edgar.

33.  Oakland is cheaper than my Boss.

34.  Palmiero played at least 135 every year, 97-155, 98-159, 99-135 he won the award.

35.  Holy SHIT!!!!!!!!

I read that wrong!

He Really did play only 28 Games at FIRST in 1999!

Can anyone explain this to me?

36.  I have trouble reasoning why the voting of this award could even be CLOSE. A-Rod's offensive numbers are just as good, if not better than Ortiz'.

Now, we consider: Ortiz doesn't play in the field, and when he does he plays 1B and could absolutely NOT play any other position. Ortiz does not run the bases well, nor does he have the ability to steal bases. He sits on the bench for 3 hours and waits for his 4-5 plate appearances with no worries other than hitting either physically or mentally.

A-Rod is an outstanding defensive player, and has probably accounted for numerous 'saved' runs this season. A-Rod could probably provide gold glove defense at three positions in the least. A-Rod runs the bases well, and is a threat to steal. A-Rod plays a tough position, plays it extremely well in addition to being a great threat at the plate.

How is this close? A-Rod can hit and could probably play SEVEN positions on the field if needed. He is the better player and the more valuable player. Case closed.

37.  Tony Massorotti of the Boston Herald offered up what appears to be a direct rebuttal of Verducci that is so mind-numbingly moronic, it'll make you marvel yet again at the drivel that passes for mainstream baseball analysis these days.

38.  Sully, I just read Massorotti's piece.

Most bizarre line of reasoning:
--Bonds didn't win the MVP for his fielding, therefore:
--Playing the field is ielding is irrelevant, therefore:
--Ortiz should get it.

Huh?

I'll say it again: Ortiz is an amazing hitter, but unless Rodriguez totally tanks it the rest of the season, he should be the MVP.

39.  Sully, that's why I come online to places like Bronx Banter (and Prospectus) for analysis - and why I don't read the Herald. =) I have a pretty good idea of how the argument goes . . .

40.  Stormer, re 30 - you may not be a fan of Billy Beane or advanced metrics, but even by traditional stats, Cabrera is clearly more valuable to the Marlins than either Dontrelle or Todd Jones - because he plays every day and is the Marlins' best hitter! And he can play two positions - LF and 3B well, to boot.

If you were an advanced metrics-kinda guy, I could say that Cabrera (73.7) has a better VORP than Dontrelle (67.4) and a superior VORP to Jones (31.2).

BFenwick, great point that A-Rod COULD play SS, and very well, in addition to 3B.

41.  #28, Bonds etc: Giants attendance is down this year with a crappy team. Yes, the food is great, it's a beautiful park, and seeing the best player of a generation is fantastic, but it doesn't matter if the team sucks. Bonds will NOT be moved, no matter what, even if he projects to play only 100 games. Giants season ticket licenses are up for renewal after this season, and there's no way in hell ownership will compromise those sales by making the team weaker for next year, even if it would provide long-term on-field gains. There's also no way that Bonds will go to Boston. Think about it: if Theo is more than willing to dump Manny for inferior talent, what makes you think he'll want another $17mil on the books? Though Manny helps make them a great team, I agree with those who have written that getting rid of his salary would provide the flexibility to sign multiple players that would exceed his production. As is, he's just not worth his contract, especially now that he's 10/5 and will probably veto trades to anyone other than the Yankees or Mets.

42.  If Ortiz gets the MVP, I'll sleep very well at night. Besides, there's only one trophy I'm concerned with and this one ain't it.

43.  A-rod could play any position on the field. He is the Bugs Bunny of MLB:

C - A-rod
1B - A-rod
2B - A-rod
3B - A-rod

Etc.,...

44.  No way I would give up the top prospects for Bonds. If Epstein wants to do that, let him.

OT: Shaun, how do you link to other posts?

45.  Rich, check out the URL he's using. Just put a #n after the main url.

46.  Thanks.

47.  deadteddy8.

You say: "Think about it: if Theo is more than willing to dump Manny for inferior talent, what makes you think he'll want another $17mil on the books?"

1. Manny is a Cancer, he just is, and Theo knows he'll pull the same garbage again next year, and who says he'll get inferior talent? They will get multiple players, and the pitching SF so desperately need. Remember, defense is a component.

2. Theo knows what George knows and what most teams will not admit, that "rebuilding" is a misnomer and in fact does not exist (can you name me a team that "rebuilt" and then won? I mean won with the rebuilt team, not simply a team that won, which had nothing to do with the "rebuilding") and that "rebuilding" is a lie told to fans to get BUTS IN SEATS! Once "rebuilt" do they pay those guys so they can win once they hit their 6 years, no, it's a perpetual process. It's simply bullshit and we all know it. You win today, now, by making good decsisions, spending money, even your own money if neccessary a la George Stienbrenner, and taking chances. KC rebuilding, how long? Give me Anaheim (a market drawfed by Oakland, and even KC for that matter)and their ownership over some bums who want to convince their fans they are "rebuilding." KC's owner actually has a greater net worth than Stienbrenner!

Otherwise you have the NFL, which is exactly what ass holes like KC and Tampa would love, where the only excuse for losing is bad coaching and bad management, where revenue is guaranteed and owners and the league keep it all.

That being said, Bonds, virtually guarantees Bostin a playoff birth, with decent pitching, David Ortiz, and Cameron to fill Damon's spot and a couple solid speedy guys.

3. Who says SF will be weaker, Boston or NY will have to trade some bona-fide talent to SF for Bonds, and again, after 2006 SF will get not one single thing for Bonds, he's GONE! Do I need to remind you that the Columbus Clippers could compete in the NL West, it will not take much for SF to take that division, maybe Boston's coveted future UNPROVEN closer, and some prospects, which I have a feeling Boston has.

4. Money is not an issue for Boston.

5. Finally, and most importantly, Bonds WANTS to DH.

That is why my friend.

48.  Singelton just said Torre is batting AROD second so he get get at bats to win the MVP, did he really just say that? Wow!

49.  Hawk Dawson won an MVP in '87 on what I believe was a last place team.