I caught two innings of AJ Burnett yesterday and he was throwing cheese. I want to like Burnett even though I’ve spent a lot of time not liking him over the past several years. It’s hard to get overly excited by him because even in his best seasons he hasn’t been as great as you might like to see from a guy with great stuff. Will he throw 200 innings? Can he make 25-30 starts? Can he post a sub 4.00 ERA? Or will he strike out a lot of dudes, have an ERA of 4.30, make 21 starts and throw 160 innings?
One thing…if he manages to improve over his performance last year, the Yanks are going to be tough.
I still think this is going to end poorly. I really put very little stock into Spring Training one way or the other. I do believe the old saying that at the end of the day, you are the back of your baseball card.
Well, if AJ is the back of his baseball card, I'd gladly take 175 innings of 3.81 ERA and 200 Ks. Or we could hope for more. Or, we could be ridiculously pessimistic all the time but call it "being realistic."
I'm not sure where you got 175 IP. Disregarding 1999 and 2000, I'm getting 157.
If Burnett averages 157 IP (or franky 175) with the Yankees, I'll consider the contract a bust. .
If Burnett averages 157 IP (or franky 175) with the Yankees, I’ll consider the contract a bust. .
Out of curiosity, what are you expecting?
I'm expecting AJ Burnett to average about 157 IP a year as a Yankee.
[3] Well, if you take out the year he had TJ surgery, which lets be honest, is pretty darn common, then its exactly 175. Considering that most people seem to see Burnett's main problem as succumbing to the little things, and that its unlikely he'll need TJ surgery again, it seems a reasonable thing to do.
Or just got by the past 5 years, his seasons post surgery. Even with the shortened season from recovery, he's averaged 170 IP.
To me, if you "go by the back of the card," Burnett is a pretty good bet to average 175 IP...
For the sake of argument, we'll throw that year out as well and go with your estimate.
I think 82 million dollars for 170 innings pitched a year is a bust. I think in this division, making up 7-9 games a year with God knows who can be crippling.
I don't think Burnett is close to being a good enough pitcher when healthy to just ignore that he's likely to miss several months each year.