I say he should, but I'm skeptical he will. I wonder, though, if being a presumably "clean" player (a la Jeter) in the "Steroids Era" will help his case, and if that plus being part of the dynasty years might be enough to overcome his lack of counting stats.
Interesting thought experiment: if Posada becomes the fulltime catcher in 1997, not 2000, which would have added ~150 games to his stats, would that be enough to get him in counting stat-wise, or would the added wear and tear have caused a pre-2008 breakdown and/or a lesser peak, lessening his chances?
[4] That's almost a peak (Posada) vs longevity (Simmons) question - particularly as Simmons had almost 4000 more PAs than Jorge does. But I'll take the career .298 EqA for Posada, with 67 WARP3, vs the .286 EqA and 63.5 WARP3 for Simmons.
I wonder what Jay Jaffe's JAWS system says about Posada's HoF chances?
We discussed this a year or two ago and I still maintain that if Jorge can get 450 PAs in each of the next three seasons and hit as he is doing now, then yes, he will make the Hall of Fame.
Among catchers with at least 800 games behind the plate, Posada currently ranks 9th all time with an OPS+ of 124 (Piazza leads with 142, but Cochrane is second at 128).
Among HoF catchers, Posada ranks as follows:
AVG - 8th, ahead of Campanella
OBP- 3rd, behind Cochrane and Dickey
SLG - 5th, behind Yogi, Dickey, Harnett and Cochrane
HR - 7th, ahead of Dickey and 14 behind Campy for 5th
RBIs - 8th, ahead of Campy and 82 behind Lombardi for 7th
Runs - 8th, ahead of Ferrell and 93 behind Harnett for 7th
If Jorge can have 3 more good seasons (lets say .270/.370/.450 with 150 runs, 225 RBIs and 70 HRs), including this one, then I think he becomes a lock.
Jorge absolutely should get in, but probably wont. And I will be mad and sad. Has there EVER been a time Posada has been bad though? Besides last year's injury campaign, he's always been very good to amazing. Even last year he was OK when he could play. Lets look at the numbers, since he became a full timer:
i'll say yes, he gets in based on 2 completely hazardousguesses.
1) i think he'll keep hititng for the remainder of this contract. so he'll end up with one of the best batting lines in catching history.
2) i think the voting patterns for the HOF are going to undergo a drastic shift. in addition to the guys who actually got busted, they're going to have to make calls on guys like bagwell, sosa, pujols and the other obvious users who just never got caught. eventually, i see all those guys getting in. but in the meantime, while the older voters are still alive and blocking them, they'll be pumping for omar vizquel, bernie williams, and jorge posada (though i would not be shockeed to learn jorge was also a user, i think the writers assume he isn't)
[7] "If Jorge can have 3 more good seasons ..., including this one, then I think he becomes a lock."
I'll buy that. I wonder though if he has to spend increasing amounts of time at DH what that will do to his case. Given all the other position changes, I would think it shouldn't hurt him too much. So maybe we extend your proposition to catching 2/3 of the time this year, 1/2 next year, and as backup C with the rest of his time at DH in his final year.
[4] Career value wise, he probably is, but Jorge still has time to go. Your question is relevant because Simmons does have a good HoF case, but itsn't in. Working against him, however, was a poor reputation as a defender as well as contemporary class that included Bench, Fisk and Munson.
[6] As of January 2007, here is what Jaffe had. Since then, Posada had an all world 2007 and missed most of 2008:
Player Career Peak JAWS
Johnny Bench* 122.2 73.7 98.0
Gary Carter* 117.8 68.9 93.4
Ivan Rodriguez 120.3 63.1 91.7
Yogi Berra* 116.2 66.0 91.1
Carlton Fisk* 118.3 59.5 88.9
Bill Dickey* 107.0 62.8 84.9
Gabby Hartnett* 109.2 59.3 84.3
Deacon White 107.6 59.7 83.7
Joe Torre 104.0 61.6 82.8
Mike Piazza 97.5 66.1 81.8
Ted Simmons 98.4 56.7 77.6
Buck Ewing* 91.5 58.9 75.2
Mickey Cochrane* 87.7 60.8 74.3
Lance Parrish 88.3 53.2 70.8
Charlie Bennett 77.9 56.4 67.2
Jorge Posada 70.7 59.3 65.0
Thurman Munson 72.9 56.3 64.6
Roy Campanella* 70.6 58.1 64.4
Darrell Porter 77.6 50.9 64.3
Bill Freehan 76.0 52.1 64.1
Gene Tenace 72.4 53.4 62.9
Ray Schalk* 70.1 51.7 60.9
Jason Kendall 68.0 52.6 60.3
Jim Sundberg 71.1 46.6 58.9
Tony Pena 70.9 46.2 58.6
Wally Schang 75.3 41.4 58.4
Del Crandall 67.3 47.5 57.4
Ernie Lombardi* 71.1 43.0 57.1
Javy Lopez 64.8 47.8 56.3
Roger Bresnahan* 66.3 44.9 55.6
Benito Santiago 69.0 40.2 54.6
Rick Ferrell* 68.0 41.1 54.6
————————————
AVG HOF C 95.7 59.0 77.3
Just like other raw counting stats, this one does not measure up for Jorge, unless you think that Jason Kendall also belongs in the Hall. I wanted to take the length of the career out of the equation a bit, so I took the top 25 from above and calculated Runs Created/Career Games:
So I think that if Posada can keep up his RC pace for another couple seasons, he's right up there with the all time greats. At present, the candidacy is iffy, although one can make the case (as I just did) that Posada is one of the top five offensive catchers of all time.
"As an aside, here’s one to ponder: over the period of 2000-2006 — admittedly a carefully selected range of years — Posada out-WARPed Derek Jeter, 59.1 to 57.8. Yes, he’s been that valuable to the Yankees. "
I really don't care. Whether or not he's enshrined in some museum doesn't change the fact that he's been one of the best catchers of his era and a very underrated part of a very successful era in Yankees history.
Posada went down last year, and the offense fell apart. Yes, Cano and Cabrera were also to blame, but Posada's production has been very simply impossible to replace.
I stopped caring about the HoF a long, long time ago. But for the sake of argument: Posada will not make it, but there is not much reason why he should not. he has been over the course of his career one of teh top three players at his position. I think he has been better overall than I-Rod, but that is my own bias. Piazza is of course off the charts with his bat.
According to Baseball-Reference, Posada's #1 comparison through age 36 is Fisk.
without diving headfirst into stats, my gut feeling is No.
But you never know, he could always end up on the veteran's ballot in an off-year with no one else really challenging for votes. It's not impossible. Hell if Tony Perez or Bill Mazeroski can get in...
It seems like great teams with multiple championships squeeze in a few extra players. As a result, I think the Yankee core, which already has attracted its fair share of mythology, will be well represented in Cooperstown. So, not only will obvious cases like Jeter and Mariano make it, but I think Bernie and Jorge will eventually get in as well.
[18] Bernie as well has been underrated. He was arguably the second best CF over the course of his entire career, and he had a couple of years where he played better than than the best (Griffey). On the other hand, Edmonds amazing longevity (more years, more HRs, higher OPS+, but fewer games) might squeeze Bernie out.
[19] I'd be surprised if Jim Edmonds squezed anybody out. He's one of the most obvious steroid guys of them all - I really think he'll have to get in the line with the others until the voters sort out what they're going to do - or die out and a new breed emerges.
[19] Whether it is right to do so, I think the 1,300 more PAs, more time in the AL and the 4 rings will place Bernie well ahead of Edmonds for consideration.
He should get in. This btw, is why I always find it laughable when people say the dynasty Yankees had no superstars, like they just won on grit. Those teams were gritty and all, but they had at least three surefire lock Hall of Famers (not accounting for steriod issues): Jeter, Rivera, Clemens. Several borderline cases: Posada, Pettitte, Mussina, Soriano and a ton of hall of very, very good: Williams, O'Neill, Cone, Wells, Martinez etc. Maybe they weren't as tabloid heavy as A-Rod, but to pretend those teams were dominated by Enrique Wilson and Scott Brosius is laughable. Those *were* superstar heavy teams.
To put things in perspective, how many teams today currently field a hall of fame or near hall of fame worthy: C, SS and CF all in their primes?
I think Po will get in over time, especially if he can put up an OPS+ > 125 this year and next, and the fact that there are no steroid allegations will help him.
Posada doesn't have the "wow" factor of say, Piazza, but he's been a steady, important contributor over the length of this Yankee dynasty. And I'm calling this still a dynasty, because they're still getting in the post season every year, except for last year, and that, to me, makes it a dynasty.
Which of Jorge's peers -- catchers playing at the same time -- would you rather have, or think are better. Piazza? Ivan Rodriguez?
Gotta agree with William [7]. He still has 2.66 years to play. If he posts an .800+ OPS over that span, he goes from very close (now) to borderline (or better) HOF. After 2011, he will have (barring serious injury) about 14 full years at C. That ain't Fiskian, but not bad at all for a carcher... especially if he is efffective throughout his entire career.
Fisk had 10 years of a sub 100 OPS+, Jorge has 3/4.
However, traditionally, C has been regarded as a defensive position, and Jorge does not score well on D. That is changing now with Piazza, Jorge, Mauer, V. Martinez and others. When it's time to vote for Jorge, if the 'new tread' is to offensive Catchers, Jorge may well get in.
[22] Most of those players weren't superstars yet, or became superstars as the rings piled up, and partly because the rings piled up. Plus: Posada was a part-time player for some of that time. Clemens didn't come aboard till half the rings were won. Mussina didn't win anything. Rivera wasn't even the closer for 25% of their championships! Soriano played one full year, a year they didn't win - the end of the "dynasty".
Obviously they had good players, and a few great players. and I think this argument that they purely won on grit, made up of Brosiuses, is a straw man cause no one really ever says that.
There's no way you can say that the Yankees had the same type of team in 2006 that they had in 1996, or even 2008 and 1998, with a straight face, come on.
There’s no way you can say that the Yankees had the same type of team in 2006 that they had in 1996, or even 2008 and 1998, with a straight face, come on.
Define "same type of team." They have a mix of very good players, HoF'ers, FA's, and youth then as they did now.
I would like to just take a moment to point out that OPS+ criminally underrates players with an impressive OBP and a good (but not fantastic) SLG because its based off of OPS, which weighs OBP and SLG equally - except they aren't even close to being equal.
Posada's career OBP is .380 - greater than Berra (.348), Bench (.342), Fisk (.341), Carter (.335), and I-Rod (.337). (Its just a bit past Piazza (.377) and just a bit behind Dickey (.382).) While his OPS+ is great, I'm not sure it really does Posada justice.
Is there no playing-time independent, translated across all time, rate stat that we could use to compare Posada to the Hall of Fame catchers? (Or did I just describe something like wOBA without knowing it?)
Jorge will make the "Hall of the Very Good"
Agreed.
nope - he won't make it.
just doesn't (and won't) have the counting stats.
Is he better than Ted Simmons?
I say he should, but I'm skeptical he will. I wonder, though, if being a presumably "clean" player (a la Jeter) in the "Steroids Era" will help his case, and if that plus being part of the dynasty years might be enough to overcome his lack of counting stats.
Interesting thought experiment: if Posada becomes the fulltime catcher in 1997, not 2000, which would have added ~150 games to his stats, would that be enough to get him in counting stat-wise, or would the added wear and tear have caused a pre-2008 breakdown and/or a lesser peak, lessening his chances?
[4] That's almost a peak (Posada) vs longevity (Simmons) question - particularly as Simmons had almost 4000 more PAs than Jorge does. But I'll take the career .298 EqA for Posada, with 67 WARP3, vs the .286 EqA and 63.5 WARP3 for Simmons.
I wonder what Jay Jaffe's JAWS system says about Posada's HoF chances?
We discussed this a year or two ago and I still maintain that if Jorge can get 450 PAs in each of the next three seasons and hit as he is doing now, then yes, he will make the Hall of Fame.
Among catchers with at least 800 games behind the plate, Posada currently ranks 9th all time with an OPS+ of 124 (Piazza leads with 142, but Cochrane is second at 128).
Among HoF catchers, Posada ranks as follows:
AVG - 8th, ahead of Campanella
OBP- 3rd, behind Cochrane and Dickey
SLG - 5th, behind Yogi, Dickey, Harnett and Cochrane
HR - 7th, ahead of Dickey and 14 behind Campy for 5th
RBIs - 8th, ahead of Campy and 82 behind Lombardi for 7th
Runs - 8th, ahead of Ferrell and 93 behind Harnett for 7th
If Jorge can have 3 more good seasons (lets say .270/.370/.450 with 150 runs, 225 RBIs and 70 HRs), including this one, then I think he becomes a lock.
Jorge absolutely should get in, but probably wont. And I will be mad and sad. Has there EVER been a time Posada has been bad though? Besides last year's injury campaign, he's always been very good to amazing. Even last year he was OK when he could play. Lets look at the numbers, since he became a full timer:
Yr. & OPS+
2000 139
2001 117
2002 121
2003 144
2004 131
2005 109
2006 122
2007 154
2008 103 injury
2009 159 (wow!, so far)
Man JoPo is good.
i'll say yes, he gets in based on 2 completely hazardousguesses.
1) i think he'll keep hititng for the remainder of this contract. so he'll end up with one of the best batting lines in catching history.
2) i think the voting patterns for the HOF are going to undergo a drastic shift. in addition to the guys who actually got busted, they're going to have to make calls on guys like bagwell, sosa, pujols and the other obvious users who just never got caught. eventually, i see all those guys getting in. but in the meantime, while the older voters are still alive and blocking them, they'll be pumping for omar vizquel, bernie williams, and jorge posada (though i would not be shockeed to learn jorge was also a user, i think the writers assume he isn't)
[7] "If Jorge can have 3 more good seasons ..., including this one, then I think he becomes a lock."
I'll buy that. I wonder though if he has to spend increasing amounts of time at DH what that will do to his case. Given all the other position changes, I would think it shouldn't hurt him too much. So maybe we extend your proposition to catching 2/3 of the time this year, 1/2 next year, and as backup C with the rest of his time at DH in his final year.
Did I mention how awesome Georgie is?
[4] Career value wise, he probably is, but Jorge still has time to go. Your question is relevant because Simmons does have a good HoF case, but itsn't in. Working against him, however, was a poor reputation as a defender as well as contemporary class that included Bench, Fisk and Munson.
[6] As of January 2007, here is what Jaffe had. Since then, Posada had an all world 2007 and missed most of 2008:
Player Career Peak JAWS
Johnny Bench* 122.2 73.7 98.0
Gary Carter* 117.8 68.9 93.4
Ivan Rodriguez 120.3 63.1 91.7
Yogi Berra* 116.2 66.0 91.1
Carlton Fisk* 118.3 59.5 88.9
Bill Dickey* 107.0 62.8 84.9
Gabby Hartnett* 109.2 59.3 84.3
Deacon White 107.6 59.7 83.7
Joe Torre 104.0 61.6 82.8
Mike Piazza 97.5 66.1 81.8
Ted Simmons 98.4 56.7 77.6
Buck Ewing* 91.5 58.9 75.2
Mickey Cochrane* 87.7 60.8 74.3
Lance Parrish 88.3 53.2 70.8
Charlie Bennett 77.9 56.4 67.2
Jorge Posada 70.7 59.3 65.0
Thurman Munson 72.9 56.3 64.6
Roy Campanella* 70.6 58.1 64.4
Darrell Porter 77.6 50.9 64.3
Bill Freehan 76.0 52.1 64.1
Gene Tenace 72.4 53.4 62.9
Ray Schalk* 70.1 51.7 60.9
Jason Kendall 68.0 52.6 60.3
Jim Sundberg 71.1 46.6 58.9
Tony Pena 70.9 46.2 58.6
Wally Schang 75.3 41.4 58.4
Del Crandall 67.3 47.5 57.4
Ernie Lombardi* 71.1 43.0 57.1
Javy Lopez 64.8 47.8 56.3
Roger Bresnahan* 66.3 44.9 55.6
Benito Santiago 69.0 40.2 54.6
Rick Ferrell* 68.0 41.1 54.6
————————————
AVG HOF C 95.7 59.0 77.3
Well I would vote for him, but I am fairly liberal when it comes to the Hall of Fame. I don't think that 75% of BBWAA will agree with me.
For what it's worth, here's the all time list of Runs Created for players having at least 50% of their games at catcher:
http://www.bb-ref.com/play-index/shareit/EJwn
Just like other raw counting stats, this one does not measure up for Jorge, unless you think that Jason Kendall also belongs in the Hall. I wanted to take the length of the career out of the equation a bit, so I took the top 25 from above and calculated Runs Created/Career Games:
1. Piazza .721
2. Cochrane .690
3. Dickey .651
4. Posada .626
5. Campanella .623
6. Berra .597
7. Hartnett .583
8. Rodriguez .576
9. Bench .574
10. Tettleton .562
10. Javy Lopez .562
So I think that if Posada can keep up his RC pace for another couple seasons, he's right up there with the all time greats. At present, the candidacy is iffy, although one can make the case (as I just did) that Posada is one of the top five offensive catchers of all time.
[11] For easier reading, here is the link: http://tinyurl.com/o4ozeo
Below is an interesting aside from the article:
"As an aside, here’s one to ponder: over the period of 2000-2006 — admittedly a carefully selected range of years — Posada out-WARPed Derek Jeter, 59.1 to 57.8. Yes, he’s been that valuable to the Yankees. "
I really don't care. Whether or not he's enshrined in some museum doesn't change the fact that he's been one of the best catchers of his era and a very underrated part of a very successful era in Yankees history.
Posada went down last year, and the offense fell apart. Yes, Cano and Cabrera were also to blame, but Posada's production has been very simply impossible to replace.
One more stat in Jorge's favor: World Series Rings as a key contributor = 3.
I stopped caring about the HoF a long, long time ago. But for the sake of argument: Posada will not make it, but there is not much reason why he should not. he has been over the course of his career one of teh top three players at his position. I think he has been better overall than I-Rod, but that is my own bias. Piazza is of course off the charts with his bat.
According to Baseball-Reference, Posada's #1 comparison through age 36 is Fisk.
without diving headfirst into stats, my gut feeling is No.
But you never know, he could always end up on the veteran's ballot in an off-year with no one else really challenging for votes. It's not impossible. Hell if Tony Perez or Bill Mazeroski can get in...
It seems like great teams with multiple championships squeeze in a few extra players. As a result, I think the Yankee core, which already has attracted its fair share of mythology, will be well represented in Cooperstown. So, not only will obvious cases like Jeter and Mariano make it, but I think Bernie and Jorge will eventually get in as well.
[18] Bernie as well has been underrated. He was arguably the second best CF over the course of his entire career, and he had a couple of years where he played better than than the best (Griffey). On the other hand, Edmonds amazing longevity (more years, more HRs, higher OPS+, but fewer games) might squeeze Bernie out.
[19] I'd be surprised if Jim Edmonds squezed anybody out. He's one of the most obvious steroid guys of them all - I really think he'll have to get in the line with the others until the voters sort out what they're going to do - or die out and a new breed emerges.
[19] Whether it is right to do so, I think the 1,300 more PAs, more time in the AL and the 4 rings will place Bernie well ahead of Edmonds for consideration.
He should get in. This btw, is why I always find it laughable when people say the dynasty Yankees had no superstars, like they just won on grit. Those teams were gritty and all, but they had at least three surefire lock Hall of Famers (not accounting for steriod issues): Jeter, Rivera, Clemens. Several borderline cases: Posada, Pettitte, Mussina, Soriano and a ton of hall of very, very good: Williams, O'Neill, Cone, Wells, Martinez etc. Maybe they weren't as tabloid heavy as A-Rod, but to pretend those teams were dominated by Enrique Wilson and Scott Brosius is laughable. Those *were* superstar heavy teams.
To put things in perspective, how many teams today currently field a hall of fame or near hall of fame worthy: C, SS and CF all in their primes?
I think Po will get in over time, especially if he can put up an OPS+ > 125 this year and next, and the fact that there are no steroid allegations will help him.
Posada doesn't have the "wow" factor of say, Piazza, but he's been a steady, important contributor over the length of this Yankee dynasty. And I'm calling this still a dynasty, because they're still getting in the post season every year, except for last year, and that, to me, makes it a dynasty.
Which of Jorge's peers -- catchers playing at the same time -- would you rather have, or think are better. Piazza? Ivan Rodriguez?
Gotta agree with William [7]. He still has 2.66 years to play. If he posts an .800+ OPS over that span, he goes from very close (now) to borderline (or better) HOF. After 2011, he will have (barring serious injury) about 14 full years at C. That ain't Fiskian, but not bad at all for a carcher... especially if he is efffective throughout his entire career.
Fisk had 10 years of a sub 100 OPS+, Jorge has 3/4.
However, traditionally, C has been regarded as a defensive position, and Jorge does not score well on D. That is changing now with Piazza, Jorge, Mauer, V. Martinez and others. When it's time to vote for Jorge, if the 'new tread' is to offensive Catchers, Jorge may well get in.
[22] Most of those players weren't superstars yet, or became superstars as the rings piled up, and partly because the rings piled up. Plus: Posada was a part-time player for some of that time. Clemens didn't come aboard till half the rings were won. Mussina didn't win anything. Rivera wasn't even the closer for 25% of their championships! Soriano played one full year, a year they didn't win - the end of the "dynasty".
Obviously they had good players, and a few great players. and I think this argument that they purely won on grit, made up of Brosiuses, is a straw man cause no one really ever says that.
There's no way you can say that the Yankees had the same type of team in 2006 that they had in 1996, or even 2008 and 1998, with a straight face, come on.
Pete Abe:
UPDATE, 4:30 p.m.: Wang starts tomorrow. More to come later. Hughes to bullpen.
There’s no way you can say that the Yankees had the same type of team in 2006 that they had in 1996, or even 2008 and 1998, with a straight face, come on.
Define "same type of team." They have a mix of very good players, HoF'ers, FA's, and youth then as they did now.
[28] I don't think the team is even the same now as it was last year, that's why I chose the years I did.
[27] ACK - I'm not sure I like that.
I would like to just take a moment to point out that OPS+ criminally underrates players with an impressive OBP and a good (but not fantastic) SLG because its based off of OPS, which weighs OBP and SLG equally - except they aren't even close to being equal.
Posada's career OBP is .380 - greater than Berra (.348), Bench (.342), Fisk (.341), Carter (.335), and I-Rod (.337). (Its just a bit past Piazza (.377) and just a bit behind Dickey (.382).) While his OPS+ is great, I'm not sure it really does Posada justice.
Is there no playing-time independent, translated across all time, rate stat that we could use to compare Posada to the Hall of Fame catchers? (Or did I just describe something like wOBA without knowing it?)