I spent the day at the movies, seeing Pixar's "Up" .... very uneven, and a bit disappointing.

I consoled myself with salt and pepper squid and then cookies and cream ice cream.

I saw two movies today. The "Pelham 123" remake (worth seeing for the acting; not terribly exciting and lacks the cinematic grit of the original), and then on Netflix my wife and I watched "Word Wars" -- I'm sure you've seen that, Diane! It's just a great movie. I won't try to explain why. I'd heard good things, but was still very positively surprised.

[2]

Yes .... I know the Word Wars main characters very well, played them all at one time or another

[3] Awesome!
I'd like to meet Joel. The other ones, not so much...

Come on now, Pettitte was worse than "pedestrian" - he was bad.

Btw, while the Yanks lose two out of three to the Phils at home, Boston will win at least two of three at Philly.

Yes the Red Sox are still better.

Burnett better kick ass tomorrow.

[5] I think he meant "pedestrian" as in "Hey Andy, take a walk the Hell outta here, and don't leave a nose print on our new exit door!"

Matzo Ball Soup and a Ruben from a Jewish Deli even removes Yankees' Fan sickness!

I don't think it works on shitty baseball though...

: )

I figure the Yanks will make the playoffs, but it's pretty obvious they're not getting very far, pending some kind of change in the team. They haven't shown an ability to rise to the occasion during the big games in the regular season that best approximate the post season. I really hope things change. Right now they have exactly one starting pitcher you can trust not to melt down and that guy just lost to the Red Sox too.

The offense is rattled easily. A Rod is ineffective, Cano is a dopey cherry picker, Matsui is streaky at best, crippled at worst, Swisher is stupid and streaky, Damon can't see, Gardner can run but doesn't, Cabrera is a cypher, Posada a grumpy old man, Jeter went out with Mariah Carey back in the day, etc etc.

No, I don't have any plans for tonight so you can find me here thinking happy thoughts for the foreseable future.

[7] Ah that makes sense now!

[8] do you mean when they started first place toronto's slump? Or where they knocked the team with the best record in AL down several notches? Seriously, this panic and we must make changes stuff is mostly just because we're in a slump (except for I admit there are a couple folks here who would demand changes if we signed the entire justice league).

[10] I'm not asking for changes, I just mean their performance in big-ish games needs to improve. I'm hoping the team will simply play in big spots the same way they have in little and medium-sized spots.

And listen, please, please don't try and sell me on Texas and Toronto as post season-esque series, cause they aint, especially this early. Yes they can beat decent teams but they have faltered in the real tests. It's not panic, because I'm hopeful they'll improve - I'm just saying this team, playing as it has been, does not inspire confidence in a big series. I don't see where anyone would derive that confidence from.

[10] Stop making sense! Haven't you gotten the memo, the sky is falling! :D

[10] Hey seamus, I spoke with Uncle Woodrow and he doesn't remember the exact name of the church, but he does know it was in Donora, PA and it might be the First Baptist Church of Donora. His name was the Rev. Ossie Neal and he was pastor from 1965 until he passed in the mid-eighties. I'm gonna research it a little more and see if I can track down relatives; Uncle Woodrow says his sons moved to New York and reside somewhere in New City (directly across the Tappan Zee Bridge from my birthplace!)

Me, I'm grilling a steak and watching Fullmetal Alchemist on DVD. Highbrow entertainment, or at least enough to wash the dispirited play today from my mind. Feh.

[10] Thanks Chyll. If it is in Donora i'm probably not familiar then. I know a lot of the areas around here from door knocking and community organizing but Donora isn't one of them. But very interesting. I happen to live right acroos the street from a Baptist church. But in Swissvale. Definitely let me know if you learn more. I just find it interesting. But obviously, don't go too far out of your way. Mostly just curious. Enjoy the steak and movie.

[14] so i meant to reference [13]. oops

[11] On the topic of changes v. no changes, what do folks think about this idea. Instead of worrying about who will pitch the 8th inning or 7th inning, the Yankees should just concede for the moment that these roles wlll will not be filled. Rather, they focus on the fact that their starters (except CC) simply will not provide innings. So, I think they should carry three or so "long men" who can give two or three inning every few days. They have Hughes, Wnag and Aceves: one should start (I'm not advocating anyone) and the other two should be long men. Then call up one of two more long men (or keep Tomko, if they really think he's the solution). That leaves four starters, four long men, and Mo. That still leaves room to keep Cokey and a couple other but probably ineffective specialists. Finally, instead of worrying about inning-by-inning tactical management in most games, simply pencil in the starter for four or five innings, and the rotating long man of the day for 2 or 3.

[11] I don't agree with that. You would have said the same thing last June about the Rays and the Rays did in fact win the East. You can't predict these things.

More importantly, if the Justice League was playing for us, what would the lineup be????

[16] don't forget, knocks on wood, Bruney should be back now giving us our 8th inning guy.

During the KC game they were talking about Angel Berroa being rookie of the year back in 2003. Man, what happened?

[19] No one knows. He had his best season at age 25, won the ROY (more or less deserving), then basically got worse every season since then. Now, that progression would make a little more sense if he was really 28 or so when he won ROY.

Hmmmm....

[18] Yes, true. But I get the feeling that the 8th and 9th inning won't matter so much of the starters not named CC continue to average 4 innings per start. Maybe they should just carry CC plus eight other starters, all pitching regularly, 3 and 4 innings a piece.

I'm not really being serious about this. Well, not too serious.

I've got some VERY sunny news .... I just read that Dave Brubeck is having a concert this Monday night at the 92nd Street Y in NYC!
http://www.92y.org/shop/event_detail.asp?productid=T-TC5DH13

(I am SO there!)

[21] i think the whole notion of starters is outdated.

Hideki Matsui was 29 that year, and he didn't decline that fast.

[23] It's time has certainly passed for the Yankees.

[24] Yes, but Matsui was much better to start. Berroa his 101 OPS+ to win rookie of the year, playing SS. He had also already played in MLB for bits of two seasons. Matsui meanwhile hit 109 OPS+. That he slugged 137 OPS+ the next seasons suggests that Matsui had a rough transition to a different league. Since then, his decline has been been fairly steady and predictable, but it started from a higher level.

[25] I would take that one step further. The more skilled a player is, the slower his decline is going to be. I just think that more highly skilled players can compensate better for decline in athleticism.

[26] Yep!

It's easy to dismiss the Yankees inability to play well against high profile components. I guess it's good practice because the same excuses being made now can be put to good use when the Yankees either don't make the playoffs or get bounced early.

Coming into the season, most would have agreed that the Yankees had compiled one of the better pitching staffs in baseball. On June 13, however, the staff has an ERA+ of 91. Nibbling has become epidemic and there are seemingly no roles up and down the rotation and bullpen. Girardi and Eiland should both be held accountable for that, but instead some are more than happy to brush it off. I wish Hal and Cashman had less patience.

[29] I agree with you in general. I will point out, however, that the Yankees 4.90 ERA becomes a just about league average ERA of 4.51 if Wang's numbers are taken out of the picture. He has been truly horrible. The rest have been, overall, pretty average but certainly no better.

You are right about nibbling. Too many pitches and simply not enough innings from the starting five.

As for no roles in the BP, I actually think that's a good thing. But that's a discussion for another day.

[29] I am not talking to myself. That was for [28].

The Yankees didn't make the playoffs because a 900+ run offense scored around 200 runs less. Part of it was off years by Jeter, Cano & Cabrera, as well as injury to Posada. Hard to win when you're giving away so many outs.

Playoffs are a crapshoot. Let's take the 1997 World Champion Florida Marlins. I find it hard to believe that they, were the best team in all of baseball when they weren't even the best team in the league, much less the NL East. FWIW, they had the 4th best record overall, behind ATL, BAL & NYY.

These aren't excuses, they're facts

[29] But you can't take Wang's numbers out of the picture because they are the result of how poorly the organization has managed the situation. You can blame Cashman for the roster decision, but the bottom line is Girardi and Eiland are the ones in daily contact with him. Beginning in ST, they are the ones who should have noticed a problem. Instead, they have yanked him around and created the situation we have today.

The no roles in the BP is a good thing when the best pitchers are used in the highest leverage. Instead, you have two effective arms in Hughes and Aceves being used in low leverage, while Brett Tomko is used in tie games. In fact, you could argue that based on recent performance, Hughes and Aceves would be the Yankees 2nd and 3rd most effective starters. It really is a screwed up staff.

I also think the nibbling is a result of philosophy. For years, the Twins have preached a throw strikes philosophy and every pitcher they run through the organization does just that. This Yankees staff seems to advocate pitching with caution. The amount of walks they have yielded is scary.

[31] They are excuses. The Yankees shouldn't be depending on a crap shoot. When obvious talent underperforms (and has games like today in which the lineup looks completely unprepared), that screams poor management. It's funny how the Yankees talk about demanding excellence, but then tolerate having a manager and coach staff that continues to fail at maximizing the team's talent. Excuses have become a part of the Yankee vocabulary, which is how you get weeks like this one.

The Yankees' advance scouts must be awful.

[32] You can take Wang's number out of the equation if you are talking about the performance of the staff as a whole (which you did in citing the 91 era+ for the team). Wang has seriously skewed those numbers.

I agree, however, that the organization has made several error. and yes, I agree that Cashman and company should be less patient. An easy place to start would be not throwing away any more starts on Wang's in-season training program.

As for nibbling, I looked at the numbers, and suprisingly, the Yankees are right at league average for innings/start (5.8), though this is skewed by CC, who is #3 in the league for innings. They are also almost exactly at league average for pitches per start (league ave 96, Yankees at 98). They are near the top of the league in K/game, but also in BB/game. I wonder if the apparent nibbling has helped with more Ks, but hurt with more walks?

[32] In fact, you could argue that based on recent performance, Hughes and Aceves would be the Yankees 2nd and 3rd most effective starters.

I agree. Then again, I never would have taken Hughes out of the rotation to begin with.

The Yankees shouldn’t be depending on a crap shoot.

Well, that's what the playoffs are; how often does the team with the most wins win?

[34] Wang's negative contribution is a symptom of the problem, which is why you can't remove it from the equation.

Also, being at league average in the categories isn't a good thing. The Yankees are not supposed to have a league average staff.

I just don't see any reason why Girardi and staff should be expected to all of sudden figure out how to manage the pitching staff and better prepare the team for facing high profile opponents. All the comeback wins are fun, but we should be asking ourselves why this team is constantly playing behind. I think a new manager with better attention to detail and a feel for managing the game would accentuate the talent on the roster. Unfortunately, because of how things ended with Torre, the Yankees can't cut ties with Girardi without ending up with egg on their face.

[36] That's a losers excuse. Girardi was full of similar lines trying to alibi the Boston games. According to Joe, the team was in all the games and but for a few bad breaks could have won many. Heck, he couldn’t even bring himself to criticize Swisher for getting doubled off on back-to-back days.

[13] & [14]

Donora, PA

November 21, 1920 - Stan Musial
November 21, 1969 - Ken Griffey, Jr.

amazing that TWO of the greatest left-handed hitting baseball players EVER, were born on the same day in the same small town. wow.

[37] I'm not going to go around in circles with you on this, but you CAN isolate specific variables when they skew the results. This doesn't mean that those variables don't count, only that the numbers do not fully explain what is going on. If Wang is pulling all the numbers down in a big way, you can't simply cite the combined team numbers as evidence of widespread corporate failure. There is a context here.

That said, I have agreed with you that there have been poor decisions abounding. I also agree that league average is not good enough, especially considering expectations. Joba has largely exceeded my expectations; CC has been fine. The rest of the starters? Not so much. The bullpen? Well, they have been exposed on two sides: low innings for the starters means more exposure in the 5th and 6th, and on the other end they can't hide behind Mo as much any more.

I am glad that you have decided that the organization needs to be less patient and, presumably, more proactive. I assume that you have finally come around to my consistent position that Hughes should replace Wang in the rotation.

[36][38] I take it that William disagrees with Beane, Neyer, James, etc on the quirkiness of play off results (i.e., luck plays a disproportionate role in a short series)?

[38] Whatever, they hung with the Red Sox and Rays last year and still missed the playoffs, and this is the first time in a long time (if ever) they were down 0-8 to the Red Sox. So if you want to declare the Red Sox AL East champs in June, go right ahead, but I don't plan on being on the ledge with you, at least not until September.

I just surprised because I was sure when Castillo dropped that ball, the Yankees had seized the momentum.

G'night all.

[41] Possibly. Even the players believe in luck, as they seem to reference "ghosts" "mystique" and "aura" as reasons for their success...

[17] You're not gonna win me over by talking about what I would have said last June! Good lord. At any rate, my point wasn't about beating good teams - again, it was about the size of the games. Last June, the Rays games were not exactly playoff atmosphere, neither are Texas nor the Blue Jays. Not compared to playing their main rival and last year's world series champs. And, again, they have failed miserably against those teams. They choke in big spots, that's all. I hope it stops.

The next time Chamberlain pitches more than six innings will be only the third in 13 starts. Ah I hear you say, well six innings, that's decent. Yes it's decent. But as of right now, he's pitched at least six innings only six times, or half of his starts. That's rough. I can't believe he's exceeded anyone's expectations - that is setting the bar reeeaaaallll low.

It's crazy, but it seems like Wang is their best hope. They desperately need him to return to form because no-one besides Sabathia is dependable at this point. They need someone who can consistently give them 6+ innings of quality pitching.

They screwed Wang and themselves by panicking when Joba got hit on the knee and then prematurely terminating Wang's rehab stint. The decision making in this organization is underwhelming way too often.

[46] The bar *should* be low for Chamberlain. it's his first full year as a starter and he's coming off an injury. If people thought he was going to throw 8 innings every day for 30+ starts, they were blind optimists. I figured he would average around 5 innings/start and have a decent ERA. He's averaging 5.2 INN/start and has a 3.84 ERA. That's more than plenty good from a 23 y.o. on an innings limit.

But this is also why AJ and Pettitte have to go deeper. Now, expecting AJ to be consistent is foolish. But Andy wa signed specifically to be a back of rotation innings eater. he has pretty much failed to fill that role.

[48] That said, Andy is still #2 on the team in innings/start. But he was going deeper earlier in the year. Lately he has really struggled to escape the 6th inning.

[39] Well I'll be doggone. I also heard a story that Uncle Ossie was a decent semi-pro ball player before he was called to the ministry. I wonder why he settled in Donora? I wish there were more people to ask about these things...

[45] wait your argument is that they haven't won games with your subjective definition of "playoff atmosphere" in June? I hope the team isn't foolish enough to panic because it stopped playing .700 ball for a week.

I'm going to the Pirates game today. Very relaxing! Enjoy watching the game folks!

[51] My argument is they don't win what passes for a big game at this time of year. It's not a good sign. I don't think there's anything subjective about saying vs Phillies or Red Sox or even Mets are more intense games than vs Texas.

You're talking to the wrong guy about panic, I'm not panicking. It's almost like you have reverse-panic; you see it everywhere.

[52] I don’t think there’s anything subjective about saying vs Phillies or Red Sox or even Mets are more intense games than vs Texas.

I think this sounds fairly subjective--how do you quantify "intensity"? Or do you mean that games against other division leaders are inherently intense, in which case one has to include the Texas games in the mix. Or, are they more intense because of "rivalry," in which case I'm not sure the Phillies would fit the bill. And in any case, as I have argued before, I strongly suspect that these rivalries exist more in the minds of the fans than the players. So maybe the intensity should be measured by the degree of enthusiasm, interest, anger, etc among the fans?

[52][53] Overall, I deny that there are much by the way of "big games" at this time of the year. This is not because teh games count less, but rather because all games count the same. A win is a win, and a loss is a loss, and the team with the most Ws at the end of the season goes to the playoff. I want my team to get up for Royals as well as the Sox--every game is just as big.

[48] I see what you mean about Chamberlain, if the bar's low then the bar's low. I personally don't set it that low, but neither do I expect 8+ innings for 30 starts. In the interest of legitimate discourse, how about we leave the straw men like that out of it?

[53][54] No offense but I'm sort of done arguing this point. There's no way I'm going to convince you that a series win vs the Royals says less about the team than a series win against the Red Sox, and you're not going to convince me of the converse.

[56] that a series win vs the Royals says less about the team than a series win against the Red Sox,

That's not what you argued.

I agree that beating good teams "says more" than beating bad teams: namely, that you can beat good teams. I'm not sure how that relates to vaguer ideas of "big game" or "intensity" (or rivaly, for that matter).

[55] Well, if you don't want 8 innings a start, what are you looking for? And what is reasonable for a 23 y.o. pitcher on an innings limit. He is averaging 5.2 innings/start. Where do you think the bar should be set for his innings?

HIs era is 3.84 (second on the team for starters). Where would you set the bar?

[58] Put another way, the league average is 5.8 inn/start (or a hair over 5 2/3 inn). Joba, at age 23, coming off a season with 100 INN, is averaging 5.2 INN (or a hair under 5 1/3 inn). In other words, he throwing on average about one (or two) outs less than the average starter in the league. That's it. Pretty much to be expected for a pitcher at his age.

To expect much more would be, in my mind, unreasonable.

Monkeypants, you were the one I was arguing with a few weeks ago about whether it is more important to beat the Red Sox than (say) the Rangers, right?

Notice that if the Yankees had taken four of the eight games from the Sox, they would now be in first place by five games. If we instead convert four losses to Texas into wins, the Yankees would be in first place by one game.

(Well, we don't have four Ls against the Rangers, so say the Rangers and the Phils.)

[57] I'm making the same point. Royals are a worse team, sure, but I'm still talking about the intensity, atmostphere, bigness, etc, all those things that don't exist.

[58] His innings limit has little to do with why he comes out of games in the fourth inning, it's because he's ineffective and his pitch count goes through the roof.

Anyway I don't really have any expectation for him. I'd like him to pitch to your beloved average IP, but unfortunately that average has been created with the help of more than a few sub-5 inning starts.

But remember Chamberlain started out as a star. So I guess my expectation is for him to have retained a little of that quality. All this talk of league averages just reinforces the fact that he's been lackluster.

[61] The average IP is not beloved, it's a fact. That he is young--star or otherwise--goes along in explaining why he has a lower (well, average) INN/start average. Yes, he has had to come out of the game early several times, but that has only served to balance some fine performances that took him late into games. Thus, he has a pretty predictable ave inn/start, and a fine ERA to boot.

You expressed surprise that he did not reach the sixth inning more often, and considered that fact a disappointment. I merely point out that he pitching exactly as a young pitcher will pitch. To be disappointed about it is, in my opinion, unrealistic.

Now, you have managed to avoid my question: what would you like to see from him such that he does not disappoint you with his "lackluster" performance? I need to know what you consider acceptable. I'm not sure I followed you in the second paragraph. You want him to pitch to the league average (5.8 INN/start), or to his own average? He has of course done the latter.

[62] I didn't say I was surprised he didn't reach the sixth inning more.

What I meant about pitching to that average was being consistent. That's why "unfortunately that average has been created with the help of more than a few sub-5 inning starts" comes into play. He doesn't pitch 5.2 innings a game; that's why I said averages don't always paint a full picture. Too often he comes up way short. It's not a few outliers that bring his average down; I've already spoken to how many times he's come out of games too early.

This all started with you saying he exceeded expectations. My response was that's bar set pretty low. I don't see why I have to formulate exactly what numbers I'd like to see to support my opinion on that. I already said I'd like to see more consistency and for him to be more efficient in each game.