[0] Ridiculously awesome catch!! Just watched the nightly highlight program here, good win for CC & the Boys. I feel good about Burnett and Aceves, but Joba..well, would be nice to see at least 6 innings from him against the evil Angels..

I seem to be the Morning Show dude here a lot of the time! Use the Banter as a warm-up exercise for the day!

Shifting the Halladay chat over to here, as top thread. OYF (and others) ... I was NOT saying 'Go get Doc!' I was saying 'what price would you pay'? That's a huge difference, guys. I was just askin' y'know. Therere are prices I wouldn't pay, and prices I would, simple as that. I was curious as to what others thought. It sounds as if there's a 'no at any price' vibe among some of you, and (honestly) I think that's just wrong.

Halladay is simply the best there is right now. There may be 2-3 guys consistently at his level, but no one steadily better. He does it vs the AL East, by a ton the best/worst division in the sport. So I simply wonddered as to the level of interest. I admit it surprises me to see such quick rejection, especially when there's a lot of 'Go get Holliday from Oakland' talk. Buy a vowel? Do we need an OF more, I'd say probably, but there are a LOT of ways to build a winning team, and an added ace is one of them.

OYF, the intense Blue Jay fan comment you posted ... he's 'off' on this because there IS something new. Ricciardi spoke personally to Halladay, warning him stuff might be happening, and halladay (first time) said he liked Toronto, but would be interested in what emerged. The difference is the clock: 18 months is getting closer to end of line.

So, leaving that, what is WITH the Twins and their roster/lineup/approach? Punting offense seems about right. And five OFs who make ours look decent! Dealing Bartlett is looking ... not so smart.

I'd guess Aceves is 4-5 innings max, with PKH behind him. But with Joba following, we have 2 games where the pen may get challenged. Means Anthony James needs to give us a good start.

[2] Well, speaking purely hypothetically about Halliday--

I would not want to see the team give up any of its big prospects (Hughes, Joba, Montero, Jackson) to get him, for a variety of reasons. Since a trade would almost have to involve one or more of these guys, I would not be in favor of making a trade at all. But if I *had* to pick, I might be convinced to trade *one* of the pitching prospects. Why?

Next season will probably see the exit of Andy, and I am not convinced yet that Wang will ever return to form. I'm not saying he is cooked, or that the Yankees shouldn't work to get him back in shape. Rather, I am just pessimistic when it comes to injuries, especially to pitchers. So, that leaves two potential holes in the rotation. Halliday fills one. I'd like to have at least one of Hughes/Joba to fill the other.

But frankly, I think the asking price for Halliday will be steep, and I'm not sure the Yankees have the prospects to make a competitive offer without emptying the farm. Plus, I have this sneaking suspicion that Halliday is not going to age well.

[2] Aside from those on the major league roster, the Yankees only have two prospects worthy of being in a Halladay trade: Montero and Jackson. As great as Doc is, the Yankees can't trade a CF and catcher prospect, especially considering the state of their team. If you really believe in Hughes and Joba, the Yankees top-4 in the rotation is set for the next 5 years. Their offense, however, is not.

While I don't doubt the Jays would move him in the right deal, something tells me they would have to be blow away. The Yankees could probably do that with something derived from AJ/Montero/Joba/Hughes, but that cost seems too high, especially with Hallday being 32 and 1.5 years away from commanding a contract that likely will be a bad one for whoeve signs him.

Having said that, I wouldn't have believed that the Twins would accept so little for Johan, so at the very least Cashman should keep his toe in the water.

[3] I wonder if Hughes follows Aceves. His recent usage suggests that Hughes is now the go-to eighth inning guy (or at least one-inning guy). It could be Albaldejo for a couple, followed by his demotion and someone else (Mitre?) getting called up.

[3] [6] Girardi can't have much confidence in Joba, so that really complicates things. I think the score of the game when Aceves leaves will dictate the strategy. If he can give you five innings with the lead, the strategy will likely be to go to Coke for 1 (preferably, the inning with Mauer and Morneau), Hughes for 2 and Mariano for the ninth. If the Yankees are trailing or leading by a lot, I am pretty sure Albie, Tomko or Robertson will be used. Of course, it would be a big help if Burnett can keep up his pace. Aside from the two big lefties, this lineup seems tailor made for Burnett,

[7] I forgot about Tomko. He pitched two innings last night, but should be fine with an off day to go two on Thursday. Or, he could be held back as insurance for Joba's start.

If we're talking tradable prospects, you're leaving someone out: Cervelli. Obviously he doesn't have the high-side of Montero, but he's ML-ready.

Can I point out that we have Romine, Cervelli, Montero, and this new kid Sanchez, all catching prospects in the system? At some point a couple of these guys will be valuable as trade chips, and only as trade chips since Posada's successor will be settled. If Halladay can be snagged for one of them, I think that has to be a good move.
I'm not as convinced as monkeypants that the market for Halladay will be sizzling. The Rangers might part with a lot of value, driving up the price, but I don't see the Red Sox offering top prospects. The worry is that Ricciardi is apt to be overly impressed by anybody in the Boston farm system. I'd hate to see Halladay added to the Sox' rotation in exchange for a flashy but dubious relief pitcher (Dan Bard, for instance).

If I were Ricciardi I'd avoid trading Halladay within the AL East almost at any cost.

Although it might be good for a laugh to trade him to the Yanks and watch them trudge around with two DLed ex-Jays for the next few seasons ...

[9] Cervelli is a decent back-up catcher, but you can't ignore his OPS+ of 65. At age-23, Cervelli isn't a spring chicken and probably doesn't project to anything more than a fringe starter.

The Jays would be foolish to accept Cervelli when Romine, Sanchez and expecially Montero are all much better prospects. In fact, they'd be silly to not insist on Montero, who besides being a catcher is quickly becoming one of the best prospective bats in the game.

[11] What the Jays can insist on depends on the market for Halladay. Cervelli plus a serviceable prospect the Yankees might not have much use for could be the best offer.
I suspect Sanchez doesn't have a lot of value -- too speculative. He's the kind of player that's perfect for the Yankees to sign, with a high upside and if he doesn't pan out all he costs is money. We need to pile up guys like that, not trade them before they're "ripe".

I'd trade Romine, though.

Who do you think the Jays can get for Halladay? Do the Rangers have hot prospects they'd be willing to deal?

[11] I agree, Cervelli would be at best a throw-in on top of one or more big prospects. Now, I wonder if Cashman could try to package Wang and some fringy guys and/or more marginal starters (in the Melky/Gardner camp). Of course the Jays are stuck with Rios and Wells in the OF, unless one of them can can be moved.

The guys who might attract attention from the Jays this year are Overbay and Barajas. Overbay is truly overrated, but he's having a good season and (IIRC) his splits v. RHP are pretty nice. Barajas is having a decent season and surely there is at least one competitive team that could use him as a starter or back-up. Both are 32 and can't be important in the Jays' future.

That is, unless Ricciardi is even a worse GM than I think he is.

[12] The market for Halladay, and their own needs, which do not seem to include a catcher.

J.P. Arencibia, a catcher, was the Jays' 2nd best prospect heading into 2009 according to BP's Kevin Goldstein (41st best overall prospect), who also projected him to be the starter on Opening Day in 2010. John Sickels rated him the Jays' 4th best prospect.

So I think we can safely say that the Jays aren't going to be looking for a backup catcher as the centerpiece of a Halladay trade.

[14] I didn't know about Arencibia. So, then I gues Barajas really is expendable, unless they want to hold onto him as a back-up/mentor next year?

Pete Abe has a post up about Halladay, and I think he's right. Ricchardi is trying to create interest.

At first blush, that seems stupid. He needs to create interest in Roy Halladay? He has to use the media to let his colleagues know Halladay is available?

But I think Ricchardi is trying to have his cake (get Halladay's 2010 salary off the books) and eat it too (get big time prospects in return). Lately, teams get one of those, not both. But perhaps by building a lot of interest in the media, Ricchardi will get someone who ends up giving him both.

The Jays' needs are only a secondary consideration, since they could always trade Halladay for a valuable prospect they can't use, planning to trade the prospect for someone they can. (Or just set up a 3-way trade.)

[12] If the Jays settled for Cervelli plus a serviceable prospect it would be the steal of the ages. Without being too harsh to those players (or types of players), I am not sure that would even net a Jarrod Washburn.

While I agree that the market for Halladay might not be as hot as you'd think, the Jays don't have to deal him. He does have one more year on his contract, so if they can't hit get alot back, it makes all the sense in the world to keep him.

[13] If someone was also willing to take on Wells horrendous contract (he will be paid $20+ million over the last four years of the deal), you might be able to get away with a lesser deal for Halladay. Of course, that would make Halladay a $30mn pitcher.

Just read Pete Abe, and I have to disagree with him. My guess is that Halladay stays with Toronto.

The 'surplus value' is really the second half of this year. The rest of Halladay's value is next year, and for that year the Blue Jays will want him as much as anybody else will. The extra value produced by a trade, in other words, is whatever Halladay can contribute to a play-off contender this year.
Now, that's considerable, but I think it's only about 2 1/2 wins. Trading Roy Halladay for a prospect of that level would make Ricciardi look pretty bad, and he has to be concerned about his reputation. So I predict the market just won't be strong enough to net Toronto the players they think Doc is worth.

If he goes to the Phillies, that would be awfully good for our team. I'm hoping, but not expecting.

Hughes, Joba, Montero, and AJack should be untouchable.

Are we talking about Humberto Sanchez? No team claimed him off waivers a couple of months ago. I'm not sure that he's really even a prospect at this point.

The other problem with acquiring Halliday is that the Yankees already have a lot of money tied up in players who will be old in the final years of their contracts.

[20] No, Gary Sanchez. He's 16, a Dominican player.

[21] Oh, my bad. I need to stop multi-tasking.

The Yankees will trade at least one of their catching prospects down the road when their values mature (that's actually their strategy behind stockpiling catchers), but they will likely end up trading them for young position players.

[19] RI, I think Ricchardi is maybe more interested in shedding salary right now than adding big name prospects or protecting his reputation. No one is going to take on Wells or Rios, and their crazy contracts, and give JP anything of value in return. But for Halladay they might do it.

Note that the Jays' payroll goes up $13M next year if they do nothing - and that's even with a couple of free agent losses (guys who will have to be replaced) and without taking arbitration cases into account.

If JP could get the rest of Halladay's '09 salary and all of his '10 salary off the books and add an upside prospect plus a couple of B/C-type guys, I think he'd do it in a second.

[23] Could be. But Halladay is pretty much the face of the organization right now (you should see the coverage up here), though maybe Lind can take over that spot. There is also a great deal of pressure on the Jays to win--not to continue to rebuild--especially since they enjoyed some bits and pieces of short term success the last couple of years. The buzz about a possible Halladay trade was all over the Canadian sports talk shows. There is immense pressure, I think, to get perceived value in return.

[23] I don't think the motive behind trading Halladay would be a salary dump, especially because he only has one more year. I think the only thing that would motivate a trade is trying to obtain several top level prospects.

Now, I am pretty sure that the Jays would trade Vernon Wells for a bag of balls. He has to have one of the worst contracts in history.

[25] Agreed on Wells, though I'm not sure anyone would offer an entire bag of balls for that contract. Maybe just a handful.

[24] Public pressure aside, the way things are going, there's no way the Jays are going to win anything this year or next year. They might be the 5th best team in baseball - and indeed they are, according to the BP adjusting standings - but they are the 4th best team in their division and league. And its not going to get any easier next year, not with what Baltimore has down on the farm.

JP has got to know this - seems to me, his best bet is either to ride it out and hope that he get's lucky next year, or trade Halladay now for something that will help the Snider-Lind-Rios-Wells group in 2012.

monkeypants, would trading Halladay really hurt the Jays in terms of ticket sales?

[26] Ticket sales? Hm, I'm not sure. That's a good question. Attendance was holding steady at around 29,000 per game, but it's fallen off this year. But then, so has the rest of the league. A quick scan of the Jay's schedule does not show any major uptick in attendance during his home starts.

The impression I get, however, is that Toronto suffers from what I call "mid-size" payroll pressure. It's a big and affluent market, and the team has had some success in the past. And now the Rays have shown you can win with a small salary, smaller than the Jays. They have a core of talent, some legit and some overvalued (by the fans, anyway).

Thus, there is an expectation that the team *should* be able to compete more than they do. Also, there is then the corresponding pressure on the organization to "do something" to get better (i.e., pick up the odd, middling free agent), rather than go all the way into a through rebuilding mode.

[26] Agreed. And happy to see a good discussion here. I don't think anyone has laid out the STARTING point for the Jays in any deal: Halladay gets them 2 1st-rounders if he leaves as a free agent. So any deal BEGINS at that level, Jays have that in the bank, they need a lot more.

It isn't a salary dump, it is an awareness they are unlikely to be able to pay 100 million for five years after the current contract ends. (Maybe 80 for 4.) Also, as Shaun says above, that good as they are (even with Wells/Rios scuffling so badly) they are the 4th best team in the most vicious division in the game. They'd be winning the Central right now.

I do disagree with Monkey that he's injury prone or an injury risk, any more than any pitcher, and less than most, though I accept that the gorgeous innings pitched he brings can be a two-way street. Aren't Joba and PKH both bigger injury risks by now? And AJ ... don't get Cliff started!

Halladay is a game-breaker in this season's pennant races, all over. Angels want him, Phillies want him, Milwaukee could repeat their CC-strategy. Boston could get him with a package led by Buchholz (as we'd have to lead with Hughes).

On the whole, as I think I said in my first query-post, I'd be happiest if he went to the NL. If he's in Boston or with the Angels, that's very bad Yankeeland news. Both would sign him for 4-5 years.

Changing topic but still stirring the pot, here is the most recent on swipe-tag-gate:

"I was told by the umpire that I didn't have to be tagged to be out," a miffed Jeter said after the 6-5 loss.

Hirschbeck spoke to Foster on Tuesday and got a different version. Here's what Hirschbeck said Foster told Jeter at the time: "The ball beat you, and I had him tagging you."

"I don't see a problem with that," Hirschbeck said. "Sometimes when tempers flare, you don't hear everything that's said."

http://tinyurl.com/mcla6q

[28] I may overstate his injury risk.

Benchmarks:

Seattle gave up outfielder Adam Jones, reliever George Sherrill and pitching prospects Chris Tillman, Tony Butler and Kam Mickolio for Bedard. Arizona traded outfielders Carlos Gonzalez and Aaron Cunningham, infielder Chris Carter, and lefties Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland and Greg Smith to Oakland for Haren.

______

Thassa lotta talent.

The following is from Ken Davidoff's column in Newsday:

"Asked whether the Teixeira price would serve as a comparable, Ricciardi said: "I think it's a little higher than that. You can find bats. I don't think you can find the best pitcher in baseball. He's a guy who can pretty much finish you off, if you're in the hunt."

For those who don't recall, the Teixeira price was Elvis Andrus, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison and Beau Jones. Three of those players were/are considered blue chips.

[29] Someone said it in another thread, but they are right - all this moralizing over PEDs, and yet nothing about how poor the umpiring is? Aye-aye-aye.

[31] Very, very different contexts though. Bedard was under control for two full years, and was arb-eligible (and thus cheap). Haren was under control for three full years, at crazy cheap prices (total for the 3 years: $15M).

Both were also significantly younger than Halladay: Haren was 26, Bedard 28. Roy is 32.

[32] Tex is, again, much closer to the two pitchers h-c-e mentioned than Halladay. He was 27 when traded, under contract for the rest of that year, and arb-eligible for the next year.

JP is negotiating the right way - set the bar high, then come down - but no one in their right mind would give up a Tex-equivalent package for Halladay.

I say the benchmark is what the White Sox would have given SD for Peavy, docked a tiny bit only because Peavy is younger and under contract for longer.

[33] I am pretty sure that Halladay's reputation among GMs is much greater than Peavy's at the time of the deal. If the Sox deal is a benchmark, I think it would have to be more, not less.

[34] Agreed, william.

Shaun, good points but ... Bedard was KNOWN to be a massive injury risk, and has proven to be one. Haren was promising but hadn't arrived yet. I agree that the contract economics played a role in enabling some teams to get in the game who might not otherwise have been able to ... but I don't think it impacts on value for Halladay ... unless you say that a smaller pool of buyers does. It might, but Philly, L.A. Angels, Milwaukee, NY, Boston is a decent pool, no? Even Texas is talking about it. Add the fact that the pennant races for THIS year are brutally (entertainingly) close and all of the teams I just named can legitimately see Halladay as a serious push towards the WS.

Jays just released B.J. Ryan. That is a LOT of salary to eat. And looks like Tigers will do same to Ordonez soon.

Both will get jobs, but ...

[36] Released or DFA? They could be looking for some sort of trade (but in any case, they will end up eating a bunch o' salary).