Another trade deadline is upon us, there is another big fish out there, and the Yanks and Sox are in the mix. Or are they? Of course they are, writes Ken Rosenthal.
Update: According to Rosenthal, Cliff Lee is going to the Phillies.
Just got hotter around here, didn’t it?
Ah, I love this trade deadline angst and excitement.
I work with a Phllies fan who's been pacing around the office like an expectant father for weeks, metaphorically chain-smoking, muttering helplessly to himself about the "complications."
Me and one of my Yankees compadres in the office quietly huddle over the latest updates.
It's looking dark, and stormy outside my window in Times Square right now, and I imagine Cashman is gazing at the sky at this moment, completely assured that everything's going according to plan.
But when the thick skies clear, and the thunder and lightning subside, I hope we still have Phil and Joba on our side.
Ricciardi tells FOX that the chances he'll trade Halladay to the Red Sox are very slim. Maybe the Phils' bowing out increases that to "slim"?
Sliced, Cashman sounds like Dr. Frankenstein. Is he smiling evilly to himself?
I don't believe anything that any GM says near the trading deadline.
[3] It... is... ALIVE!!!!!!
Whoa, was that Cashman or me who just shouted that?
wonder if the Yanks could offer Joba, Melky, Romine for Halladay AND Wells and assume both contracts for Halladay and Wells.
Wells' contract is terrible, but it's just money and you have to assume he'll be better than any of Damon, Swisher, Gardner, Melky. Outfield is a need, and trading Melky hurts but Vernon should be able to play most every day and hopefully Pena or AJack can be good enough to use as backups.
trading Joba also is tough because we're trading pitching for pitching, so we're not necessarily solving our problems, but Halladay would help save the bullpen, should be more consistent, should be more reliable in the postseason, etc.
Then try to find relievers that you can get for relatively short money/minor prospects.
10:$12.5M, 11:$23M, 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$21M
The Yankees aren't adding Wells s contract to their payroll. Count on it.
I think any offer would be Joba, Jackson, Romine, and a pitcher, but I doubt that Cash would do that, and I'm not sure that Hal would even add Halladay's contract. They currently spend $60 million more than any other team in MLB. That's crazy.
True, but they have $26M coming off the books next yr in Damon & Mats, right? So the net/net would be $2-3M? next yr for Halladay/Wells. Yrs 11-14 are the issue.
That's a huge issue, especially if you want to resign Jeter and Mo for '11.
Plus, Jeter is 35, A-Rod is 34, Posada is 38, Mo is 39. They have no obvious productive corner OFer that can field as well as hit. If any of those players decline, or if an injury occurs, how do you fill those holes with little or no payroll/roster flexibility and few prospects left to trade?
If the options are for some mediocrity (Garland) trading something of value for Washburn, or the tried and true "Blood from a Stone gamble (Ponson) I hope we just hold pat.
I don't consider Halladay a realistic possibility.
how would you fill those positions if you had to today? would you trade any single one of the people I mentioned above for a productive corner OF? Any two of them? I always thought that you only trade your hottest prospects for proven starting pitchers. Melky alone isn't bringing much back in trade. Once you get into trading multiples of those 3 (or equivalent) then I'm looking for good proven starters. You can always get an outfielder that gives you "good enough" production for more marginal players in return. I'm talking about someone like Juan Rivera, etc. - not necessarily that much better than what we have, but younger, more consistent, cheaper. The fact that the Yanks haven't gotten those players in the past doesn't mean that they can't - just that they haven't focused on it for whatever reason. On the other hand, pitchers like Halladay only come around every so often, and even then, can you ever have enough of those guys? I love Joba & Hughes, but can you guarantee that either or both will turn into Halladay? A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush?
Which do you think would make more impact in the post season - filler at SS, OF or 3rd like Chone Figgins, Juan Rivera or (name avg. replacement SS) or Halladay as one of your top 3 starters?
Also, next season we have a rotation of CC, AJ, Joba, Hughes, Mitre? We'll need to pick up quality starters anyway - what better time than now with Halladay?
[11] I love Joba & Hughes, but can you guarantee that either or both will turn into Halladay?
That's not really the question. The Yankees would not be getting Halladay in any case, they would be getting, say, five and half seasons of Halladay (age 32-38), assuming an extension.
So the questions you have to ask first are: How much does Halladay really help this season? How long will he continue to be a dominant pitcher? A very good pitcher? What will he be worth for the next X seasons?
Once you have answered those questions, especially the last one, you can begin to think about how much Joba and/or Hughes are likely to be worth, and then which will be worth more.
Assuming you only give one or the other (Hughes/Joba) then I'd make the bet that Halladay would be more valuable over that period than either of those guys. They're both great but unproven. As a starter, Hughes has not been great so far. Who's to say he can ever translate his stuff into Halladay stuff - of course he has potential, but it's a long road from potential to proven.
[12] QUestionable math, Boslaw, since getting Halladay will cost at least Joba or Hughes. So getting Halladay does not plug the hole in the rotation...it upgrades one spot but opens another hole, or two.
So, the situation in 2009 is really more like a choice between:
1. CC, AJ, Hughes, Joba, and XXXX
2. CC, AJ, Halladay, Joba/Hughes, and XXXX
3. CC, AJ, Halladay, XXXX, and YYYY.
[14] You may be right, but then I am pretty wary of overpaying for 32 y.o. starters. We will see.
RIYank deemed that I had predicted HAlladay would not be traded...and I am still standing by that prediction.
[17] I deem you to be waffling.
[18] No sir, I'm standing pat. Not Mattpat, just pat.
Monkeypants - I acknowledged that adding Halladay wouldn't solve our rotation hole next year. We'll still have at least one hole (and maybe 2 if we trade both Joba & Hughes, which I'm not advocating). However, I'd still feel more comfortable having CC, Halladay, AJ, Hughes/Joba, fill in the blank as opposed to CC, AJ, Hughes, Joba, fill in the blank.
Yes, he's 32, but Halladay has shown every indication (as much as any player can) that he'll be a safe bet through his 30's. He's been a work horse. I would count on him as much as any other 32 yr old to age well.
[20] Does "every indication" that he's a safe bet include going on the DL this season? Again, you're probably correct that he will age well, but I am not convinced that he will be worth the pile of prospects and cash that it will take to get him. I agree with Cashman's approach of not "paying twice" for the same player. He should hold firm unless the price comes way down, and fill pitching holes via free agency and internally.
I'm just not convinced that our rotation, as it stands, will get us to the World Series this year. Halladay, I think, would be a difference maker on that point, and really, isn't that the point? In a few yrs, (probably sooner than later) Jeter, ARod, PO, MO, etc., will seriously start breaking down. Then, we'll have a bunch of immovable contracts and no realistic way to fill those gaps, and our chances at the WS will become slimmer, so why not go for broke and win it all while you can. It's not like we have a huge stable of prospects that will keep us in contention.
I love the idea of building up the farm system, but I also think you use the farm system to your greatest advantage when you use it to give you a difference maker for a WS run. The Red Sox and Rays are not that far behind, and I'd put both of their starting rotations ahead of ours over the next 3 yr period.
I wouldn't touch Wells, I'd jump to get Rios with Doc. Obviously it turns on cost, not both of JobaPhil. You'd think adding Rios would make it cost us more players, but it might not - he's 10 million off the Blue Jays books. They WOULD want Melky or Gardner ... they don't care Gardy's hurt for awhile. Plus one of our minor league blue chippers and probably another, along with Phil or Joba. (Actually there ARE no minor league blue chippers, just big dreams.)
And, as with Tex, this has to factor in Boston getting Halladay otherwise ... at least as the current (4 pm) reports, since Philly took Cliff Lee. Bosox with Doc and Beckett as a 1/2 get very scary. They MAY be backing off Roy and going for Victor M ... the Varitek era ends, if so.
[20] Similarity scores are a pretty flawed tool, but the similarity scores for Halladay support your position. Here are the top ten:
1. Roy Oswalt (955)
2. Denny McLain (944)
3. Tim Hudson (937)
4. Vic Raschi (935)
5. Jack McDowell (925)
6. Larry Jansen (924)
7. Preacher Roe (920)
8. Sal Maglie (917)
9. Mark Buehrle (917)
10. C.C. Sabathia (915)
A few contemporary guys, so we don't know how well they will age. A few who flamed out, and a few who pitched well into their late thirties.
[23] Jeter, ARod, PO, MO, etc., will seriously start breaking down. Then, we’ll have a bunch of immovable contracts and no realistic way to fill those gaps,
In a few years, MO, Po and Jeter are no longer under contract. In a few years there will only be a couple of big, immovable contracts: A-Rod, Teix, and CC.
Am I missing someone?
[23] Alex Rios is worrisome in his own right, considering that his numbers have declined the last couple of years. But he is only 28, and his production is currently no worse than Melky/Gardy.
[26] I keep mentioning Wells because it seems like if you're going to try to entice them by taking salary off their hands, they'd probably rather part with Wells than Rios, but I'd certainly take Rios over Wells if I could get away with it.
[25] I guess you're right about Mo, Po, Jeter's contracts - I hadn't done any research on it. I guess that makes me feel even more strongly that they should do the Halladay + wells/rios deal now if they can get away with it under my proposal (melky/garnder, joba/hughes, + 1 or 2 prospects). I'd love to win the WS again while jeter, po & mo are still on the team as starters.
You don't think there's any chance the Jays would part with Lyle Overbay, do you?
[28] I personally think there is every chance they do. He's 32 or so, right? And he hasn't really hit like a 1B, but he is having a really nice season. He's a perfect lure to swindle some desperate team. (To be fair, he does have really nice career splits. Maybe a team like the Sox could use him in a platoon. I don't think he fits the Yankees.) There is no way, unless Ricciardi is really the fool I accuse of him of being, that Overbay is part of the Jays future in any meaningful way.
Also, didn't I predict, about two weeks ago, that they would trade Overbay? I mean this for real...I'll have to check the archives.
Meanwhile, the defense is bailing out Halladay against the Mariners right now.
[28]
Aha! I posted the following on July 8 (Boom Squad, comment #13):
I was kind of kidding about Overbay. I was hoping to get a reaction from Mattpat. (He and I shared a month of aghast perplexity three years ago when some pundits thought the Jays suddenly became contenders with the acquisition of Lyle Overbay.)
Check this out from Joel Sherman.
Speaking, of course, of Halladay.
[32] you'll get a reaction out of me!
i despise lyle overbay , and i am not even sure why.
i even had a conversation about me despising him with some random jay fan at the game i went to this year who must have thought i was some wacko.
his ops+ is nice this year (120 ) but he is so overarted it is gross and i believe no one is called a professional hitter more than him.
[32] I don't think that is an *entirely* unreasonable position. The Jays are always trapped, it seems, between being buyers and sellers. If they really think they have something with the younger guys, maybe the best thing would be for them to try to make a run next year. This would be easier, of course, if they hadn't made such awful, awful deals with Rios and Wells.
STOP THE PRESSES!!!!
Yankees obtained RHP Jason Hirsch from Colorado for a PTBNL. He was sent to AAA.
[35] DAMN YOUR EYES, NOSTRALARMIS!!!!!
I was just logging in to post that trade with a header of "HOLD THE PRESSES!!!!"
I should have known better than to try and get the drop on you ...
=)
Again, discount everything a GM says before the trading deadline.
[36] you watch yer ass!!! ; )
HA!!! you didn't know the devil had baby blue eyes, huh?! : )
great minds drink alike. wanna go for a beer tomorrow night?!
anyway, i've gotta leave NOW to go teach. unfortunately, i'll miss most of the game. but i hope to make it home to watch the end on espn, before i split for slices...
i sure hope to come home to a comfy Yankee lead!!!
woot! We got Hirsch!!!