Carl Crawford is having a terrific season but over at SI.com, Jonah Keri suggests that it would not be a shock if the Rays trade him come this off-season.
Monday
November 25, 2024
Since 2002
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--Earl Weaver
It wouldn't be a shock at all. The Rays are stacked, and will be for years.
Crawford for Jose Reyes (assuming Reyes is healthy and Beltran is not) would be intriguing
They'd probably never trade him in-division, but I'd like to have him on the Yanks.
[3] Depending on where he goes, he may well be available as a free agent in winter 2010.
My concerns are that so much of his value comes from his speed - one leg injury and he could be in big trouble - and while he has a nice OBP-spike this year (and will walk more than he ever has before), his career OBP (.334) and walk rate are decidedly average. If I had to bet, this is his peak year (he's 28), and his OBP and walk rate go back to his normal, average-at-best standards after this.
His numbers remind me a lot of Cano's, enough to make me hesitate. If he's hitting .310 he's valuable, but if not, uh-oh.
BTW, I'll bet everything I laid out in [4] is (in addition to having younger, cheaper alternatives on hand) exactly why the Rays would want to trade him. Sell high, get maximum value, and watch him decline on someone else's dime.
The Red Sox are said to be interested in Christian Guzman.
I guess they're feeling like they'd better do something. But Guzman?
Unfortunately, the Rays won't trade him to the Yankees.
Somehow I think the Yanks can survive without a LF who sports a career .334 OBP and a .438 SLG. They already have one Melky.
[6] Dunno, what's the prognosis on Lowrie? Guzman would be an improvement on Nick Green.
Crawford's OPS+ is 116, Melky's is 105.
Crawford's wOBA is .383. Melky's is .341.
Crawford has 52 SB. Melky has 5. SB turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, so in effect, Crawford's constructive SLG is much higher than it appears.
Crawford's UZR/150 is considerably better than Melky's as a LFer.
Other than the foregoing, yeah, they are the same player.
[9] Lowrie is on the 15 day DL with nerve complications from his surgery. Maybe they're pessimistic, or just trying to reduce their risk?
What I find strange about a move for Guzman is that the Red Sox just got rid of Julio Lugo (though not his salary!) and isn't he pretty much the same player as Guzman? That is, plenty of hits but very few walks, okay power for a SS but nothing to get excited about, and a weak fielder. (And overpaid.)
Francesa really needs to stop talking about the Mets trading Reyes to the RS for their overrated prospects.
As a Nats Fan, and as a Yankee fan, I sure hope the Sox take Guzman off our hands here in DC. Let them waste their money ($8 million next year) anmd let the Nats spend it on an extension for Adam Dunn.
Guzman NEVER walks. (He actually walked the other day with the bases loaded; before it happened, I would have said the only way he would have not swung at the first pitch was to get into the box without a bat.)
[10] Crawfords CAREER OPS+ is 103, which makes him slighty better then average, but slightly below average for a corner OFer. His speed and defense and both great, so he is a very nice player. Worth $18m? I think not.
[14] well, that is a little misleading. His OPS+ in 4 of the last 5 years is 111 or higher. It seems a bit drawn down due to a down year last year and his early career stats. In the AL East, only 3 regular corner outfielders have better OPS+. two are Yankees (Damon and Swish). The third is Jason Bay.
Worth $18m? I think not.
Actually, according to Fangraphs, he is.
Ugh, more OPS? Stop the madness!
I'm astonished to see people, including my fellow oldtimer, OYF dissing Crawford. Case can be made that speed is overrated for many players if their stealing 15 and caught 8 or something, but Crawford is stealing at a pace for 70-80 this year and plating strong D and hitting with some authority. It may well be his career year, 28 is the mantra for that, after all, but - as Raf rightly notes - Carl C is worth his salary, absolutely.
The gossip in Toronto is tat it is the Chisox who put in the waiver claim for Rios. He has a no-trade contract but Chicago is a perfectly good place for him to go (and he'd help them a lot). The issue is that Rios is NOT the problem with the Jays, Wells is, BJ Ryan was. Rios is a good player who was expected to be an outstanding one and is also sucked into the wake of the horrendous Vernon Wells story.