hate to lose hideki's bat (for a few at-bats).. but having molina behind the plate for aj helps contain the opponents running game.
lefties cc and andy are naturally better suited to keeping runners on first from stealing.
opponents probably figure they can rattle aj with the threat to run.
molina's presence mitigates that threat, no?
If this is AJ's request you have to give it to him. Give'im everything he wants, just no excuses come game time.
Po's a fine catcher and a very good hitter, but take him out of the line up and the Yankees are still way potent, more than any other team still.
If AJ blows up though, he's gonna have a serving of humble pie.
Molina was 17-7 after he came back from his injury. I only counted games in which he had at least 3 PA's. He will also come out of the game if the Yankees are trailing or it is close after AJ comes out.
[9] Surely that depends on who's pitching. Against a lefty, I bet Posada is the DH when Molina catches.
I really don't care about Burnett's ego. If he actually pitches better with Molina catching -- even a little bit better -- then it's the right move. I mean, if it means just one single fewer for the Tigwins, then that's just about break-even, right?
[11] Not really -- I think it's pretty likely that Molina actually is better at throwing out runners. Notice that he's stolen on less often than Posada; also he's got a much better CS% for his career.
Remember that lots of things affect a CS%, so just looking at one season is a very small sample (esp. for Molina).
[10] Why? Matsui hits LHP very, very well: .282/.358/.618 this year, .294/.359/.465 career. (Posada vs LHP is .290/.360/.476 this year, .299/.381/.496 career.) If Posada DHs, you can't replace Molina's bat with Posada's when AJ comes out of the game, be it early or late. Since they are equally excellent at hitting lefties, I think Posada has to sit so that Girardi can get him into the game in Molina's place if that becomes necessary.
[7][11][12] Note that Detroit had the fewest steals, and the second fewest attempts, in the AL. Minnesota was low in both categories as well. That doesn't mean Leyland/Gardenhire wouldn't try to run more in the playoffs, but it suggests they might think twice about it.
[13] Uh, yeah.
Okay, I take that back.
Although Matsui comes into the post-season in a bit of a slump. Still, I guess given those numbers you're right, Posada has to sit.
[8] amen po.
i agree with jorgie - it's not like anyone didn't see this coming.
as much as i don't like losing po's bat, and think it is just a coincidence/in aj's head that he *has* to pitch to molina - as i said the other day, if this is what it takes to get a good game out of aj, fine so be it. but he better pitch well :}
this may guarantee cervelli on the roster, as bears can still maul bucs in the post season.
Sam has the audio up now. I honestly can't tell whether it was a "it doesn't matter as long as we win" kind of answer, or a "Okay, Girardi, it's on you if we lose" kind of answer (I mean [8]). It could be either; I just can't read his tone.
The more I think about it, the less worried I am about Molina in the line-up. Look at it this way. If AJ pitches eight or nine innings, that's a great outcome. If he pitches six innings, probably Molina gets only two PA, and then Posada replaces him in the seventh. The chance that this makes a difference in the outcome is tiny; the chance it helps Burnett have a good outing, well, I dunno, but I'll trust Girardi on this one.
It doesn't have anything to do with who has a better arm -- it's a comfort thing for AJ. He clearly doesn't like the game Posada calls, they're never on the same page, and he also doesn't trust Posada to block breaking balls in the dirt, which really affects AJ's approach.
AJ may be a baby, but Posada is only just passable as a defensive catcher. I can understand wanting to pitch to someone else. And after all, for how many years did Torre continue to start Girardi when Posada was clearly the better hitter?
[20] "for how many years did Torre continue to start Girardi when Posada was clearly the better hitter?"
Your point makes me wonder - given that the Yanks won 2 World Series in those 3 years ('97-'99) - if that isn't influencing Girardi just a very teeny tiny little bit. That is, after considering everything else, he thinks, "Well, other Yankee teams have done just fine in the postseason without Posada's bat behind the plate . . ."
Does this mean Pettitte is pitching Game Two? Seems like it (otherwise Molina could catch two of the five games).
That bothers me more than Molina catching. Those Home/Road splits could just be small sample size, but they're pretty huge differences when you take both pitchers into account.
[3] Agreed, the difference is minimal, especially if Po is available off the bench. What does piss me off though, is that professionals making $13m/$16m a year should be able to work things out and not put Girardi in this position.
You can't ask Po to magically start blocking pitches he has missed for 10 years, but you CAN get him to call the game to AJ's liking. And what about Po's noexistant target? How hard would it be for Po to give a decent target. I watch him, and he is moving his glove as pitchers go into their windup. That sucks. How hard is that to change?
This should have been addressed months ago. There is no excuse for it. Po is a true Yankee, but it is more important that the pitcher is comfortable. Po should be doing whatever is necessary to make that happen.
Do so many pitchers mistrust Jorgie simply on basis of his defense, or is it pitch calling? My knee-jerk reaction is always to blame the pitchers for being pigheaded, but is it really Posada who can't adjust to make the battery spark?
[27] Who are these "so many" pitchers who mistrust Jorge? I can remember only one or three. Jorge starts, so of course we will tend to hear about the odd starter here and there who is (allegedly) not on the same page with him. Methinks this is mostly horseshit. But if AJ feels more comfy and throws better because he believes that Molina calls a better game or whatever, so be it. But he better be lights out, because this return to the "we can afford to carry X-shit hitter" is really, really annoying.
[6]Po’s a fine catcher and a very good hitter, but take him out of the line up and the Yankees are still way potent, more than any other team still.
Is this true? The Yankees averaged 5.65 R/G, compared to the LAA (5.45) and BOS (5.38). In other words. the Yankees potent offense was only .20 to .27 runs better than the next two best offensive teams. Now, a quarter of a run is a lot over the course of the season. But I am not sure that replacing Posada with Molina would not eliminate that offensive advantage.
Let's look at it another way, the Yankees outscored their opponents by an average 1.00 R/G, LAA outscored their opponents by .75 R/G and BOS by .84 R/G. In other words, what separates the Yankees and the Sox (hitting + pitching) is an average of only .16 R/G. Again, Replacing Posada with Molina might eliminate that .16 R/G advantage, at least on offense.
Maybe RIYanks can help with the numbers?
This Molina silliness may payoff against the far weaker Twins-Tigers, but do we really want to go against Boston or the Angels starting Jose Molina, probably, two times?
I'm honestly way less agitated about this than some. Three at-bats from Molina (he'll be pinch hit for in a tight game) is not a massive loss of Posada. Nor do I join those saying 'AJ better be on or feel my wrath!' Really? He's being given, in the team's judgment, a better chance to be on. Period. How can anyone take it further in baseball? We up the odds with a catcher he pitches better to. I mean do we say of a pinch hitter, 'He better hit or feel my wrath!'?
I don't see this as AJ prima donna stuff. I see it as maximizing chances for a win. In the best of all worlds, AJ would dearly love to pitch to Po. It doesn't work that way. Why get so worked up about it? As someone said, we slide down in one batter for 3 at-bats a game when AJ goes, and boost the pitcher's comfort level, and reduce the running game. I'll take it.
I also agree that Matsui has to bat, vs lefty or righty, Po is in reserve as a pinch hitter then catches.
[32]Nor do I join those saying ‘AJ better be on or feel my wrath!’ Really? He’s being given, in the team’s judgment, a better chance to be on. Period.
My wrath will be on the decision makers. This otherwise obviously foolish enterprise is predicated entirely on AJ pitching better--significantly better--to Molina than to Jorge. That is the only justification for replacing Jorge's bat with Molina's anemia. If that expectation does not materialize and it costs the team, the decision makers should have to answer to it on some level.
[33] Well, we have to agree to disagree then. Let's look at the last series against the LAA, in which the Yankees won 2 out of 3. Molina started two games (one win, one loss); he was 0-6, gave up one SB and had on CS. Posada played in one game (a win), went 1-4 with a HR and two RBI, gave up one SB and had one CS.
I'm pretty certain this is how things will continue to play out in the playoffs. As such, I have a hard time believing that Molina's ability to take away a SB here or there will come close to compensating for his sub-.600 OPS.
It all comes down to how AJ pitches. If he is lights out, then this is a genius decision. If not, there is some 'splainin' to do.
[34] predicated entirely on AJ pitching better–significantly better–to Molina than to Jorge. That is the only justification for replacing Jorge’s bat with Molina’s anemia. If that expectation does not materialize and it costs the team, the decision makers should have to answer to it on some level.
But that's my point ... short sample, sport is random, all you do is play the odds as best you can with the cards you have. How do you have an 'expectation materialize' with certainty in sport, monkey? Think about what you guys are saying, in the context of the game we all know (and Girardi and his coaches and Cashman know too, a bit).
Further, if AJ stinks out the joint that much, we lose anyhow to Verlander, right?
I'm also not so sure Po is so good vs Verlander. May be wrong, but have a nagging hunch he ain't. I say maximize your odds with your pitcher and defense, surrender 3 at-bats worth of improved batting odds. I guess we do have to disagree. But my main point is, it is typical apocalyptic Yankee fandom to say 'Girardi's job is on the line!' or 'AJ better dominate or else!'
They are playing odds and angles. You and I might disagree as to the right play, but it doesn't become wrong if AJ gives up 6, and it doesn't become right if Molina gets 2 doubles or even if AJ goes 7 for 1. Because he might have done it with Jorge, too!
I also think Girardi & Co also know more than we do about the dynamics here.
But my main point is, it is typical apocalyptic Yankee fandom to say ‘Girardi’s job is on the line!’ or ‘AJ better dominate or else!’
While not on the level of batting Enrique Wilson leadoff, or Alex Rodriguez 8th, it's still a dumb move... Maybe it is on the level of batting Wilson leadoff in the 03 ALCS.
[31] Working from memory here, but if I remember right Clemens, Mussina, Burnett all had problems with Jorge. Maybe others, and I know you'll correct me if I'm wrong. But if I'm right, that's only the "one or three" you mention so I guess it's not that many.
[41] Gee only 3 of the best/great stuff stuff pitchers of the last 5-20 years ;)
Girardi claiming he made the decision w/o consulting Burnett...
Michael Kay is going to have a field day with this. Impossible to count how many times he flatly said "You do NOT take Posada's bat out of the lineup in the playoffs. Burnett has to figure it out."
[41] Clemens had no problems with Posada. In fact, Clemens preferred Posada catch him and that is how Jorge got the catcher position full time. Don't know about the rest.
Presuming that the quality of opposition is the same, we have a K rate of 18.2% with Posada and 26.7% with Molina. Figure an average of 350 PA. Burnett has a career K rate of 21.9%. One standard deviation, given 21.9% as the true rate and 350 sample PA is .022 K per PA. That puts Posada and Molina at roughly 2 SD from the mean (each going the other way, obviously). (The real numbers are 1.9 SD for Posada, and 2.4 for Molina.)
[30] Whew! As I said, that seems a lot more important to me.
Monkeypants, I can try to think through the numbers. But I think, off the top of my head, that we're talking about a very small decline in run expectancy.
These two batters do have an enormous difference in their OPS -- it would be hard to find a realistic pair of starter/sub with a bigger one. But say over two games we see five PA with Molina instead of Posada. The expected difference is one single. That's it. 400 points of OPS over five PA amounts to one single instead of a pop fly. Over two games. So, if Molina comes up with RISP every time, we're looking at a run lost.
Sure, that could be the difference in a game, but not likely. Now account for (i) the improved defense, (ii) a little rest for Posada, (iii) even a slight improvement in Burnett's performance, and I think this is not something to fret about much.
The Yankees arguably lost the 97 Division series because Torre had Girardi start. They lost each of the last two games by one run. In that series Girardi went 2 for 15 with no XBHs and one walk (.321 OPS). That was coming off a season in which he posted a 69 OPS+ versus Jorge's 101 OPS+. Jorge got two plate appearances that entire series.
I don't like this decision, but I can understand it. The pressure is certainly on Burnett to produce. And if he doesn't in Game 2 all bets better be off in Game 5.
I keep sane knowing that we're talking about maybe 3 plate appearances for Molina. Then with the Yankee bullpen they could bring in Posada as early as the sixth inning.
Isn't there some quick and dirty conversion (like a single is "worth" .10 Runs on average, or some such)? That might be one way to look at how valuable three plate appearances are in general.
[45][47] THAT's the problem with today's world. I do all the heavy lifting, engage, debate, make analogies, try humor, offer calming perspective, RI saunters in with a stat and HE gets the thanks!
Ain't no justice, no how!
But I completely agree with RI's last line ... not much here, move on team. This is a manager's call and we can differ on it, but it is NOT something that normally will amount to a whole lot. 3 at-bats, keep saying that. Balance with single malt and better D + likelihood of better P.
What worries me now? The craziness of the media and attention will put MORE pressure on AJ. Just what he needs. Gives up a single in first, and walk, the craziness accelerates.
On June 27, Burnett against the Mets pitched 7 innings, allowed 1 hit, 0 runs, with 10 ks. On July 27, he pitched 7 innings against the Rays, allowed 2 hits,1 R, 0 ER, with 5 ks. On August 7 against the Red Sox, he pitched 7.2 innings, allowed 1 H, 0 R, with 6 ks. Posada was the catcher for each of those games. In no other game this year did Burnett pitch as many as 7 innings while allowing 2 or fewer hits. Posada was also the catcher for a number of other games from June to August in which Burnett pitched well: 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 IP, 2 R, 8 IP, 3 R.
Then on August 22 against Boston, Burnett allowed 9 R in 5 IP. This was somehow determined to be Posada's fault. And the conclusion is he "doesn't know how to call a game" or something else detached from reality.
This isn't even a case of correlation being mistaken for causation. This is simply nonsense.
Of course it seems like the pitcher and catcher are "working well together" when a pitcher has a good game. How could it feel otherwise. And of course it seems that they're "out of sync" when the pitcher has a bad game. The fact of the matter is that it's all about the pitcher. That's why good pitcher are good pitchers from year to year and team to team, regardless of the guy behind the plate, and the not so good pitchers are not so good.
Taking Posada's bat out of the lineup is a bad decision made by a manager who was a poor hitting catcher and overvalues his own contribution. Of course it worked out really well the one other time since 2000 this decision was made, with Randy Johnson pitching to Flaherty in 2005 in game 3 against LAA.
As I just commented on Bruce's excellent Bucky Dent thread, I expect the Yankee blogosphere to explode any second now.
I'm ok with this
/ducks flying objects
[2] I agree. If the Yanks can't win with A.J. on the mound and the 8 hitters in the lineup then boo to them.
[3] yeah I agree, but if A.J. doesn't step up...oh man.
hate to lose hideki's bat (for a few at-bats).. but having molina behind the plate for aj helps contain the opponents running game.
lefties cc and andy are naturally better suited to keeping runners on first from stealing.
opponents probably figure they can rattle aj with the threat to run.
molina's presence mitigates that threat, no?
If this is AJ's request you have to give it to him. Give'im everything he wants, just no excuses come game time.
Po's a fine catcher and a very good hitter, but take him out of the line up and the Yankees are still way potent, more than any other team still.
If AJ blows up though, he's gonna have a serving of humble pie.
Molina was 17-7 after he came back from his injury. I only counted games in which he had at least 3 PA's. He will also come out of the game if the Yankees are trailing or it is close after AJ comes out.
[5] CS % for Yankees catchers:
Cervelli 43% 10 of 23
Molina 28% 9 of 32
Posada 28% 31 of 111
Cash 18% 2 of 11
[5] Posada said that Matsui is our DH, so . . . methinks that means he sits.
[9] Surely that depends on who's pitching. Against a lefty, I bet Posada is the DH when Molina catches.
I really don't care about Burnett's ego. If he actually pitches better with Molina catching -- even a little bit better -- then it's the right move. I mean, if it means just one single fewer for the Tigwins, then that's just about break-even, right?
[7] so much for that theory.
[11] Not really -- I think it's pretty likely that Molina actually is better at throwing out runners. Notice that he's stolen on less often than Posada; also he's got a much better CS% for his career.
Remember that lots of things affect a CS%, so just looking at one season is a very small sample (esp. for Molina).
[10] Why? Matsui hits LHP very, very well: .282/.358/.618 this year, .294/.359/.465 career. (Posada vs LHP is .290/.360/.476 this year, .299/.381/.496 career.) If Posada DHs, you can't replace Molina's bat with Posada's when AJ comes out of the game, be it early or late. Since they are equally excellent at hitting lefties, I think Posada has to sit so that Girardi can get him into the game in Molina's place if that becomes necessary.
[7] [11] [12] Note that Detroit had the fewest steals, and the second fewest attempts, in the AL. Minnesota was low in both categories as well. That doesn't mean Leyland/Gardenhire wouldn't try to run more in the playoffs, but it suggests they might think twice about it.
[13] Uh, yeah.
Okay, I take that back.
Although Matsui comes into the post-season in a bit of a slump. Still, I guess given those numbers you're right, Posada has to sit.
[8] Damn, sounds like a threat!
[8] amen po.
i agree with jorgie - it's not like anyone didn't see this coming.
as much as i don't like losing po's bat, and think it is just a coincidence/in aj's head that he *has* to pitch to molina - as i said the other day, if this is what it takes to get a good game out of aj, fine so be it. but he better pitch well :}
this may guarantee cervelli on the roster, as bears can still maul bucs in the post season.
Sam has the audio up now. I honestly can't tell whether it was a "it doesn't matter as long as we win" kind of answer, or a "Okay, Girardi, it's on you if we lose" kind of answer (I mean [8]). It could be either; I just can't read his tone.
The more I think about it, the less worried I am about Molina in the line-up. Look at it this way. If AJ pitches eight or nine innings, that's a great outcome. If he pitches six innings, probably Molina gets only two PA, and then Posada replaces him in the seventh. The chance that this makes a difference in the outcome is tiny; the chance it helps Burnett have a good outing, well, I dunno, but I'll trust Girardi on this one.
Motherfucker better have a fabulous outing, is all I have to say.
If not, Lord deliver him from my wrath.
It doesn't have anything to do with who has a better arm -- it's a comfort thing for AJ. He clearly doesn't like the game Posada calls, they're never on the same page, and he also doesn't trust Posada to block breaking balls in the dirt, which really affects AJ's approach.
AJ may be a baby, but Posada is only just passable as a defensive catcher. I can understand wanting to pitch to someone else. And after all, for how many years did Torre continue to start Girardi when Posada was clearly the better hitter?
[20] "for how many years did Torre continue to start Girardi when Posada was clearly the better hitter?"
Your point makes me wonder - given that the Yanks won 2 World Series in those 3 years ('97-'99) - if that isn't influencing Girardi just a very teeny tiny little bit. That is, after considering everything else, he thinks, "Well, other Yankee teams have done just fine in the postseason without Posada's bat behind the plate . . ."
Does this mean Pettitte is pitching Game Two? Seems like it (otherwise Molina could catch two of the five games).
That bothers me more than Molina catching. Those Home/Road splits could just be small sample size, but they're pretty huge differences when you take both pitchers into account.
[22] Wait, what? I'm not clear; how would you like to see Andy used?
I just want to know AJ's excuse for all his other years in the league. :)
[23] On the road. He's much better on the road this year. Burnett is much worse.
[3] Agreed, the difference is minimal, especially if Po is available off the bench. What does piss me off though, is that professionals making $13m/$16m a year should be able to work things out and not put Girardi in this position.
You can't ask Po to magically start blocking pitches he has missed for 10 years, but you CAN get him to call the game to AJ's liking. And what about Po's noexistant target? How hard would it be for Po to give a decent target. I watch him, and he is moving his glove as pitchers go into their windup. That sucks. How hard is that to change?
This should have been addressed months ago. There is no excuse for it. Po is a true Yankee, but it is more important that the pitcher is comfortable. Po should be doing whatever is necessary to make that happen.
This is fucked!
Do so many pitchers mistrust Jorgie simply on basis of his defense, or is it pitch calling? My knee-jerk reaction is always to blame the pitchers for being pigheaded, but is it really Posada who can't adjust to make the battery spark?
[3] Oops, OldYank beat me to the question and looks like s/he answered it all in one.
[27] Yes... HE believe Po needs to adjust... not the pitching staff.
[23] [25] Our prayers have been answered!
Sam Borden says Girardi says AJ pitches Game 2.
[27] Who are these "so many" pitchers who mistrust Jorge? I can remember only one or three. Jorge starts, so of course we will tend to hear about the odd starter here and there who is (allegedly) not on the same page with him. Methinks this is mostly horseshit. But if AJ feels more comfy and throws better because he believes that Molina calls a better game or whatever, so be it. But he better be lights out, because this return to the "we can afford to carry X-shit hitter" is really, really annoying.
[6] Po’s a fine catcher and a very good hitter, but take him out of the line up and the Yankees are still way potent, more than any other team still.
Is this true? The Yankees averaged 5.65 R/G, compared to the LAA (5.45) and BOS (5.38). In other words. the Yankees potent offense was only .20 to .27 runs better than the next two best offensive teams. Now, a quarter of a run is a lot over the course of the season. But I am not sure that replacing Posada with Molina would not eliminate that offensive advantage.
Let's look at it another way, the Yankees outscored their opponents by an average 1.00 R/G, LAA outscored their opponents by .75 R/G and BOS by .84 R/G. In other words, what separates the Yankees and the Sox (hitting + pitching) is an average of only .16 R/G. Again, Replacing Posada with Molina might eliminate that .16 R/G advantage, at least on offense.
Maybe RIYanks can help with the numbers?
This Molina silliness may payoff against the far weaker Twins-Tigers, but do we really want to go against Boston or the Angels starting Jose Molina, probably, two times?
I'm honestly way less agitated about this than some. Three at-bats from Molina (he'll be pinch hit for in a tight game) is not a massive loss of Posada. Nor do I join those saying 'AJ better be on or feel my wrath!' Really? He's being given, in the team's judgment, a better chance to be on. Period. How can anyone take it further in baseball? We up the odds with a catcher he pitches better to. I mean do we say of a pinch hitter, 'He better hit or feel my wrath!'?
I don't see this as AJ prima donna stuff. I see it as maximizing chances for a win. In the best of all worlds, AJ would dearly love to pitch to Po. It doesn't work that way. Why get so worked up about it? As someone said, we slide down in one batter for 3 at-bats a game when AJ goes, and boost the pitcher's comfort level, and reduce the running game. I'll take it.
I also agree that Matsui has to bat, vs lefty or righty, Po is in reserve as a pinch hitter then catches.
[31] Against the Angels, I am even happier to see Molina with our righty against their running. Against Boston, we do the running.
[32] Nor do I join those saying ‘AJ better be on or feel my wrath!’ Really? He’s being given, in the team’s judgment, a better chance to be on. Period.
My wrath will be on the decision makers. This otherwise obviously foolish enterprise is predicated entirely on AJ pitching better--significantly better--to Molina than to Jorge. That is the only justification for replacing Jorge's bat with Molina's anemia. If that expectation does not materialize and it costs the team, the decision makers should have to answer to it on some level.
If AJ stinks up the joint it will be because he stinks up the joint, not because Posada stinks as a catcher.
[33] Well, we have to agree to disagree then. Let's look at the last series against the LAA, in which the Yankees won 2 out of 3. Molina started two games (one win, one loss); he was 0-6, gave up one SB and had on CS. Posada played in one game (a win), went 1-4 with a HR and two RBI, gave up one SB and had one CS.
I'm pretty certain this is how things will continue to play out in the playoffs. As such, I have a hard time believing that Molina's ability to take away a SB here or there will come close to compensating for his sub-.600 OPS.
It all comes down to how AJ pitches. If he is lights out, then this is a genius decision. If not, there is some 'splainin' to do.
[35] I agree.
Burnett better pitch lights out and win that game or he is going to get it from the fans and media and will deserve it.
I think that Girardi, Cashman and who ever made this decision are fools.
[34] predicated entirely on AJ pitching better–significantly better–to Molina than to Jorge. That is the only justification for replacing Jorge’s bat with Molina’s anemia. If that expectation does not materialize and it costs the team, the decision makers should have to answer to it on some level.
But that's my point ... short sample, sport is random, all you do is play the odds as best you can with the cards you have. How do you have an 'expectation materialize' with certainty in sport, monkey? Think about what you guys are saying, in the context of the game we all know (and Girardi and his coaches and Cashman know too, a bit).
Further, if AJ stinks out the joint that much, we lose anyhow to Verlander, right?
I'm also not so sure Po is so good vs Verlander. May be wrong, but have a nagging hunch he ain't. I say maximize your odds with your pitcher and defense, surrender 3 at-bats worth of improved batting odds. I guess we do have to disagree. But my main point is, it is typical apocalyptic Yankee fandom to say 'Girardi's job is on the line!' or 'AJ better dominate or else!'
They are playing odds and angles. You and I might disagree as to the right play, but it doesn't become wrong if AJ gives up 6, and it doesn't become right if Molina gets 2 doubles or even if AJ goes 7 for 1. Because he might have done it with Jorge, too!
I also think Girardi & Co also know more than we do about the dynamics here.
But my main point is, it is typical apocalyptic Yankee fandom to say ‘Girardi’s job is on the line!’ or ‘AJ better dominate or else!’
While not on the level of batting Enrique Wilson leadoff, or Alex Rodriguez 8th, it's still a dumb move... Maybe it is on the level of batting Wilson leadoff in the 03 ALCS.
[31] Working from memory here, but if I remember right Clemens, Mussina, Burnett all had problems with Jorge. Maybe others, and I know you'll correct me if I'm wrong. But if I'm right, that's only the "one or three" you mention so I guess it's not that many.
[41] Gee only 3 of the best/great stuff stuff pitchers of the last 5-20 years ;)
Girardi claiming he made the decision w/o consulting Burnett...
Michael Kay is going to have a field day with this. Impossible to count how many times he flatly said "You do NOT take Posada's bat out of the lineup in the playoffs. Burnett has to figure it out."
[41] Clemens had no problems with Posada. In fact, Clemens preferred Posada catch him and that is how Jorge got the catcher position full time. Don't know about the rest.
From a Tom Tango blog entry today
[30] Whew! As I said, that seems a lot more important to me.
Monkeypants, I can try to think through the numbers. But I think, off the top of my head, that we're talking about a very small decline in run expectancy.
These two batters do have an enormous difference in their OPS -- it would be hard to find a realistic pair of starter/sub with a bigger one. But say over two games we see five PA with Molina instead of Posada. The expected difference is one single. That's it. 400 points of OPS over five PA amounts to one single instead of a pop fly. Over two games. So, if Molina comes up with RISP every time, we're looking at a run lost.
Sure, that could be the difference in a game, but not likely. Now account for (i) the improved defense, (ii) a little rest for Posada, (iii) even a slight improvement in Burnett's performance, and I think this is not something to fret about much.
The Yankees arguably lost the 97 Division series because Torre had Girardi start. They lost each of the last two games by one run. In that series Girardi went 2 for 15 with no XBHs and one walk (.321 OPS). That was coming off a season in which he posted a 69 OPS+ versus Jorge's 101 OPS+. Jorge got two plate appearances that entire series.
I don't like this decision, but I can understand it. The pressure is certainly on Burnett to produce. And if he doesn't in Game 2 all bets better be off in Game 5.
I keep sane knowing that we're talking about maybe 3 plate appearances for Molina. Then with the Yankee bullpen they could bring in Posada as early as the sixth inning.
[45] RI, thanks.
Isn't there some quick and dirty conversion (like a single is "worth" .10 Runs on average, or some such)? That might be one way to look at how valuable three plate appearances are in general.
[45] [47] THAT's the problem with today's world. I do all the heavy lifting, engage, debate, make analogies, try humor, offer calming perspective, RI saunters in with a stat and HE gets the thanks!
Ain't no justice, no how!
But I completely agree with RI's last line ... not much here, move on team. This is a manager's call and we can differ on it, but it is NOT something that normally will amount to a whole lot. 3 at-bats, keep saying that. Balance with single malt and better D + likelihood of better P.
What worries me now? The craziness of the media and attention will put MORE pressure on AJ. Just what he needs. Gives up a single in first, and walk, the craziness accelerates.
[48] Three ABs and it sounds nice and calming. Three outs, the most precious commodity in baseball, and it's not so calming anymore.
And Po gets how many hits in those 3 at-bats, likely against Verlander?
[50] Oh, I don't know--I'd hazard a guess that he gets on base 20% to 25% against Verlander, as opposed to Molina's approximately 0%. That's big.
On June 27, Burnett against the Mets pitched 7 innings, allowed 1 hit, 0 runs, with 10 ks. On July 27, he pitched 7 innings against the Rays, allowed 2 hits,1 R, 0 ER, with 5 ks. On August 7 against the Red Sox, he pitched 7.2 innings, allowed 1 H, 0 R, with 6 ks. Posada was the catcher for each of those games. In no other game this year did Burnett pitch as many as 7 innings while allowing 2 or fewer hits. Posada was also the catcher for a number of other games from June to August in which Burnett pitched well: 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 IP, 2 R, 8 IP, 3 R.
Then on August 22 against Boston, Burnett allowed 9 R in 5 IP. This was somehow determined to be Posada's fault. And the conclusion is he "doesn't know how to call a game" or something else detached from reality.
This isn't even a case of correlation being mistaken for causation. This is simply nonsense.
Of course it seems like the pitcher and catcher are "working well together" when a pitcher has a good game. How could it feel otherwise. And of course it seems that they're "out of sync" when the pitcher has a bad game. The fact of the matter is that it's all about the pitcher. That's why good pitcher are good pitchers from year to year and team to team, regardless of the guy behind the plate, and the not so good pitchers are not so good.
Taking Posada's bat out of the lineup is a bad decision made by a manager who was a poor hitting catcher and overvalues his own contribution. Of course it worked out really well the one other time since 2000 this decision was made, with Randy Johnson pitching to Flaherty in 2005 in game 3 against LAA.