i'm with you alex, as if i wasn't already amped for the playoffs last night elevated it even more

I hate it when a new posting goes up as I'm typing what turns out to be the last posting in the previous thread. I mean, I love new postings. Well, I'll just cut and paste:

Couple three things.

1. From Sports PhD, via River Avenue, the post-season’s worst hitters. Interesting. Ranking the teams according to their worst hitter, the Yankees are waaaaay out in front with Melky. The difference is even more dramatic if you order the second-worst hitters on each team. Our second-worst batter is Robinson Cano. Yikes. That’s a relentless line-up.

2. It sounds like the Division Series roster will not include Fast Freddy Guzman, because they’re taking Cervelli and Marte. That’s not official, but Girardi was hinting at that conclusion.

3. BRIAN DUENSING = BRAIN UNSIGNED
I don’t know what it means; I’ll leave that to our resident hermeneuticists. (Maybe he will one day have Frankie Cervelli as a battery-mate?)

[2] I was thinking the same thing, even though it didn't happen to me. I was checking the last thread, thinking "Aw, someone's gonna get squeezed here ..."

There are so many guys with something to prove, somebody is gonna have to come through. On the other hand, someone probably won't. I wonder who will and won't ... I'm thinking of those four, CC and A-Rod will and Teixeira and AJ won't. And ... now I just changed my mind.

Damn Alex, do you always wait for me to make my best post on a thread before you start a new one? Jeez... I live alone and even on the Banter I'm talking to myself!

[3] 3. BRIAN DUENSING = BRAIN UNSIGNED. Anagram?

34 MLB experts give picks for Yankees-Twins
http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/article/2009-10-06/34-mlb-experts-give-picks-for-yankees-twins

In some ways, we can never win in the PS... only break even.
If we get blown out before the WS, our losing will be far bigger news then anybody's winning.

3) LOL. Hey, so long as CC is the MAN, and then the hitters pick up AJ if he's so-so.

Man, I'm buggin', I'm so excited.

I'm more nervous than anything.

Losing this series would be the the biggest of all the post 2000 debacles.

Brian Duensing = URP? Only 2.2 innings, but they killed him.

[4] those stats you posted on the last thread don't mean anything for today anyway

[8] well actually friday

damnit i'm still annoyed i can't see tonight's game - as i was lamenting about this to my mom this morning, she said to me in a very chipper voice, "well, you can watch the highlights later" :{

[8] Hee hee. (I almost went to look and see whether they were Detroit stats or something, and then I remembered...)

[4] Wow, that is some broad definition of "experts", huh? The only thing that really makes me nervous is that Steve Phillips picks the Yankees to win it.

[7] Duensing is plainly not an URP, since, as you note, we beat the stuffing out of him in July. Since we've seen him, he can't be an URP. Just a plain old RP.

[2]

I will repost as well:

1. I’m not sure what the utility of that is. They guy even acknowledges that: “Strange things can happen in a short series.’

As such:

Brian Doyle’s 1978 WS:

.438 .438 .500 .938

[6] Losing this series would make me commit fully to Sumo and never watch baseball again...

The countdown to the game and to the typhoon hitting the coast..how am I expected to sleep??

Now I lay me down to sleep, I trust in CC, A-Rod to go deep...

Brian Duensing also ABIDES RUNNING, so maybe we should steal a bunch of bases tonight.

Also SURE BAD INNING. I hope we can make the most of that one, put up seven runs or something.

Okay, take it, Diane!

[11] Yeah. Short series are crap shoots. Not sure why that's relevant to what I passed along from River Ave (and Sports PhD).

going to the game tonight....

leaving work early....

rocking back and forth at my desk muttering to myself....

can't eat anything....

can't sleep, clown's gonna eat me....

Welcome to October

[14] My point is that because short series are crap shoots, there isn't much useful information to be gleaned from listing who each team's worst hitter is because the output from 12 ABs can be so easily skewed as to render their regular season production virtually meaningless.

Nervous, much? Yes, the Hoss is, too. I hate, loathe, despise short series, always have. They define the cruelty of the game ... 162 games (or 163.33) to get there, and a bad 24 or 48 hours, or luck or midges, and golf looms.

As someone said last thread (why is the good stuff always last thread?) in a short series every game feels like a must-win. Of course they aren't, but the sense of it is always there. Duensing is actually quite good, had a major role when Minny was on their roll, but I agree: they have to be running on fumes + adrenalin, they hate the Bronx, Mauer just caught 12 innings and CC hurts their lefties.

I hate to join a chorus of expectations but so much is stacked the Yankees way tonight it DOES feel as if messing it up could bring back all the negative energy of the last few years, the panic/doubt/pressure on AJ ... and for THAT reason it feels like a massive game to me, too.

Must. Find. Lucky. Shirt.

This is a must win. The Twinks are physically tired, mentally tired and that champagne can mess up your mojo. But still . . . I feel like we're the ones with something to prove.

GO CARSTEN CHARLES!

GO YANKS!

The 2009 post season could not have lined up anymore perfectly for the Yankees. On the one hand, that has me feeling very confident, but on the other it has me waiting for the other shoe to drop. The Yankees really should beat the Twins, but they don't play these games as simulations. If CC has a strong first few innings and the Yankees score some early runs, then I think we could be headed for a sweep. If not, well, at least someone like Verlander isn't looming to dampen the spirits. Even though the Tigers weren't very good, it would have been easy to treat Verlander as the boogeyman. While the Twins can definitely still beat you, I won’t feel the Yankees are out of the series until the final out of the final game is recorded.

One thing that has me not feeling so positive is the Molina/Posada situation. All season, I pleaded for Girardi to either get AJ/Posada on the same page or make assign Molina as the permanent catcher. Instead, Posada was on-and-off with AJ, leading to a situation wherein there is some dissension in what had been a very harmonious clubhouse. As Jorge stated, the Yankees had better win AJs starts.

[13] Are you saying The Duen' Abides?

I have to weigh in on the AJ - Molina - Posada thing.

1) the statistics to measure the impact of a catcher as a defender are still pitifully inadequate. They always have been.

2) with that said, I suspect the arguments in favor of having one more strong bat vs. a nearly non-existent bat probably would outweigh the contribution deduced from more accurate metrics.

3) the difference, however, in having that one more strong bat may be affected (and minimized) in the playoffs, due to the higher likelihood of facing strong pitching. That said, in this round, that would seem to hold less true.

4) This, however, is the biggest thing: the difference between Good AJ and Bad AJ is enormous. It's everything. If Good AJ comes to play, the Yankees have to be the favorite to reach the World Series. With Bad AJ, the Yankees have an inadequate, likely to get bombed, will take you out of the game and make it impossible to win because his start was so bad while killing the availability of the bullpen pitcher masquerading as a #2.

The difference is everything.

AJ may still stink out the joint. We might see Bad AJ. But ANYTHING that increases the chance that it turns out to be good AJ on the hill seems to be the right move in my book.

This is not the normal add up the results of some metrics and then weigh them against the results of the other guy and now place that up against batting statistics situation. This is acknowledging that our #2 starter is a Jekyll and Hyde character - and that this is the difference between having a heavily plus rotation and a rotation that is dangerously weak heading into the postseason.

[19] I'm with you on the "other shoe" feeling. Everything line up perfectly for the Yanks, and the last time I felt that way was 2006. And we all know what happened there.

We should beat the Twins, sweep them even, but things that "should" happen in October have a funny way of going haywire. I know this is more the baggage of the last 5-6 years talking more than logic, but it is what it is.

I'll feel much better if we can pull off a win tonight...and will then immediately start reminding myself "well we won the opener in 2005 and 2006 too"...such is my neuroses.

oh and I'm generally ok with the Molina thing.

[16] But are you saying that all of the season's stats should be ignored because none of them provides any guarantee in a short series? That would be kind of silly. Or is there something particularly misleading about comparing the worst batters on each team?
As I said, what seems interesting about the ranking (and even more so when you look at the ranking of the second-worst hitters) is that it shows how deep the Yankee line-up is. Amazing.

[19] I suspect that even if Girardi had made AJ/Molina a permanent pairing months ago, Posada would have been and remained pissed. Whether one characterizes it as prideful or stubborn, that's his nature.

[23] I'm saying that because the outcome of the postseason is often so reliant on out of context performances, the stats of any given player isn't necessarily all that revealing about how a series will play out. So in that sense, it can be misleading.

[2] See my responses to you in the previous thread.

[9] Oh, Mom!!!

I said this yesterday, but I'll repeat it, as another reason we really ought to win: that play where the left fielder threw to the wrong base. The possibility of kind of mental lapse committed under extreme pressure should work in our favor. If we can play tight defense, which we should be able to, a mental lapse from their side could make the difference.

Still, I'm pretty fucking nervous.

One thing I give Girardi credit for is I think he nailed the rotation. It would have been easy to go with Pettitte as the #2, but all of the splits back up the current alignment. Interestingly, AJ has been much better against lefties and at home, while Andy has always pitched well at the dome.

[25] Okay.
I think the sensible thing is to take the information we have, keeping in mind that there's still going to be a whole lot of luck in a short series. A *whole* lot of luck.

[26] Can't find them. Where?

[28] I actually thought Delmon Young's throw to 3B saved the game for the Twins. Not only did he just miss getting the runner at 3B, but if he had kept the batter at 1B, Gardenhire probably doesn't walk Rayburn, who is easily the Tigers second best hitter. By creating the open base, the walk to Rayburn was a no brainer, which left the game in the hands of two bad hitters (Inge and Laird). My thinking at the time was taking the shot at 3B was a great chance because I would have walked Rayburn with runners on 1st and 3rd anyway.

[29] Yes, that was a big, big relief to me, too. If the season's splits are any kind of indicator (even if they're somewhat exaggerated by luck, etc.), then lining them up this way is apt to be the most important decision he makes. (God, I hope it is, anyway.)

A shiver in my bones just thinking about the weather. For those in the NYC what do you seen when you look up in the sky. Crappy here upstate. On a side not, playing lots of baseball music for my class today.
Is it wrong to get annoyed with a young Red Sox fan if they don't even know who their first round opponent is? : D

[33] mix of sun and clouds down here, but it is WINDY.

The funny thing about watching yesterday's game is I kept going back and forth about whom I'd rather have the Yankees play. When Mauer, Kubel and Cuddyer would bat, I'd lean toward the Tigers. Then, I'd watch Porcello and think about Verlander and prefer the Twins. However, after watching how awful the Tiger's offense was, I would lean back to Detroit, but then be quickly swayed to the Twins again after considering their rotation.

I hate to keep saying it, but the Yankees are so clearly superior to the Twins (and Tigers), that they should easily win this series. Unfortunately, baseball isn't like the other sports. Physical dominance doesn't always make the difference, which is exactly why MLB should NEVER consider expanding the playoffs further and SHOULD come up with a way to handicap not only the wildcard, but also the lesser division winner.

[33] Blue sky...sun shine...and alot of wind.

[36] Thanks.

[0]

That picture could be the image used for the documentary ..
"CC Sabathia ... The Later Years"

[Yes, I know there hasn't been a NOTD these past two days. I've been sick as a dog, in bed by 10 each night. I hope to get back on the beat in the next day or so.]

Did Leyland ever say last night why he didn't have Verlander warming up to relieve Rodney? I can't believe that in an "all hands on deck" game, that he didn't have "all hands on deck".

Tonight's forecast: Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. Breezy, with a west wind between 15 and 23 mph, with gusts as high as 46 mph.

Gusts up to 46mph? That could definitely play a role in tonight's game, regardless of whether the gusts are blowing in or out.

Tyler Kepner states in a bats blog post that Molina is an above .300 hitter against the Twins: "All of these Yankees own a career average of .300 or better against Minnesota: Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Hideki Matsui, Derek Jeter, Johnny Damon, Robinson Cano, Melky Cabrera and Jose Molina"
http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/10/07/division-series-matchups-and-predictions/#more-13459

If that's statistically significant, it's another reason not to get too worked up about "resting" Posada for a game or two.

[21] I agree wholeheartedly

[26] Oh, I've found it. You're asking how Cano can be called a worse hitter than Damon and Swisher, right? (You also doubt he's below Matsui or Posada, but I think those comparisons are pretty clear -- you made the mistake of just counting up homers and doubles instead of looking at the rate of slugging.)

I think that's from River Avenue, not Baseball PhD. It's a pretty close call. The big reason Cano gets downgraded is that he makes so many damn outs. Remember that Swish walked almost a hundred times this year! Damon and Swisher get on base a lot more often that Robinson does, and with a line-up full of guys who can hit that's crucial. Still, those three are close enough that their ranking is sensitive to exactly which method you use to combine the different dimensions of hitting. River Ave likes wOBA (which gives weightings to each kind of batting outcome). If instead you rank by OPS, Cano is indeed ahead of Damon and Swisher.

[30] Ok, here was #31:

RI, I’m sorry, what kind of unmitigated bullshit is that? In what universe is a guy hitting .320 with 25 dingers and nearly 50 doubles just a cut above Melky and below Damon, Swisher, Jorgie and Mats? If it’s because he can’t hit with RISP, I’d entertain that argument, otherwise, that just makes no goddamned sense at all.

Sports PhD, my eye!

Followed hard upon by #32:

OH!!! *POST-SEASON!!!*

Hah ah ah ahh h ha h!!!

Channeling Litella: Never mind!

[39] I hope you feel better and look forward to the next NOTD

[35] Agree with that whole comment.
For me, it was more that when one team would screw something up I'd think, "We want those guys". Then the other team would squander an opportunity or something, and I'd think, "No, those guys."
We should win. We should win handily. But, o fortuna, there's a significant chance that Cinderella will find her prince.

[43] Oh, wait, so it *was* based on regular season performance?

Ok, then, objection re-filed.

I guess if you want to throw all that mumbo-jumbo at me, what can I say? All I know is, I'm not picking Swisher over Cano for my sandlot team.

[47] Yes, it was based on regular season.
I thought my explanation was pretty clear and straightforward. I don't know how to answer your charge that it's "mumbo jumbo".
I know you'd rather have Cano. But that's largely because you want your sandlot team to be aesthetically pleasing. River Ave. is talking about winning the games. Ninety seven walks in 607 appearances, that's not beautiful but it really helps the team win.

[41] If that’s statistically significant, it’s another reason not to get too worked up about “resting” Posada for a game or two.

I'm not sure what players did against the Twins ten or fifteen years ago is all that significant to the question of who should start this week.

[31] It must be that one day a month, when William and I agree (mostly). I didn't think that it was the wrong play to throw to third, especially given that at the time the play looked to be pretty close (though in retrospect it was not *that* close). In that case, i would try to cut down the go ahead run rather than worry about run #2 at 2B (or worry about setting up the DP).

Then again, one could argue that in late inning situations, the extra run is exponentially more valuable.

Still, I thought the announcers got on the LF a bit much for what did not seem to me an obviously incorrect play.

[47] You can probably make a case that either of the five is the worst (Posada, Cano, Matsui, Damon and Swisher), but the important thing to remember is the excercise is relative. All three are very good offensive players. I think RAB went by wOBA, but if they used (1) OPS+ the order would have been Posada, Matsui, Swisher/Cano tied and Damon; or (2) BTruns, the order would have been Swisher/Cano tied, Damon, Matsui and Posada.

[50] It's more than once a month?

I think the bigger factor in making it the right play is the presence of Rayburn on deck. I doubt DY was thinking that as he threw to 3B, but the smart move would have been to walk Rayburn regardless, so you might as well take what amounts to a free chance.

I'm sure they have already been posted, but what do the stats say about the difference between AJ pitching to Molina vs. Posada?

[49] if the stats had only been accrued a decade ago your quip would have some validity, but saying that a guy's batting history against a team is irrelevant is going a bit far. Not sure where I can find splits by year, but career, Molina is .313 vs Twins with an OPS of .773 in 67 at bats.

That doesn't predict how he will perform in his three or four at bats in the series, but I prefer seeing that line to seeing an ops of .412 in 70 at bats. Don't you?

[53]

Molina: 11G, OPSa .658, K/BB 2.66
Posada, 16G,OPSa .775, K/BB 1.72

The sample sizes with such comparisons are always too small to be definitive, but from the naked eye, it seems like Jorge calls for fewer breaking pitches and AJ throws them with less conviction, perhaps because of all the wild pitches Jorge has allowed. The curve is really the key to AJ's game, so if Molina allows him to use it more, then the switch seems justified.

[54] I think the bottom line is no small sample size statistic can mitigate the vast gulf that separates the offensive abilities of Jorge Posada and Jose Molina. While the case for using Molina can be made on a defensive/AJ basis, bringing up offensive splits almost seems like trying too hard.

[48] I know, I know. I called it mumbo-jumbo precisely so as to preclude rational discourse. What can I say? I'm a baseball superstitious paleolith. God has granted me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change. :)

[56] Agree on the splits.
It's just hard to believe that Molina is really that much better against the specific Twins pitchers than he is against the rest of the league. Sure, it's possible, but the Small Sample explanation looks better.

I wonder whether there's any Regular/Sub pair that has a bigger fall-off than Posada/Molina. You might think, A-Rod/Hairston, but Jerry is so much better than Molina. I don't know who replaces Pujols -- that'd be a reasonable guess.

[31] Wow, that's an interesting perspective, and perhaps valid, but still, do you think Young made that throw advisedly or out of rashness? I'd guess the latter, but perhaps you're right.

Slowest.

Day.

Of.

The.

Year

. . .

so far.

I'm so exciting I barely skimmed the 59 comments in the thread. I'm too antsy to digest it all now. I just want it to be 6 PM already. Is it 6 PM yet? ;)

[59] Gardenhire was clearly miffed after the throw to 3rd. I thinking throwing his arms up in disbelief was the telltale sign. It was at that point, that I said to nobody in particular that I could never be a mlb manager.

If the Yankees put up some early runs on the board on AJ day, then perhaps the point will be moot.

Does Molina have post season experience with the Angels? If so, how did he do.

[59] I think he made the throw because he thought he had a play on him (which, I also happen to think he did). Now, if he was following the game closely and allowed the batting order to factor into his decision, well, then all the better. What would worry me as a Twins fan is Gardenhire seemed upset by the throw, which suggests to me he wasn't going to walk Rayburn. A look at his numbers versus Inge and Laird shows how foolish that would have been.

I also think Leyland dropped the ball in this inning as well. Jeff Larish should have hit for Inge.

[61] In 11 PAs, Molina has a post season line of .375/.500/.375.

One other point...taking Jorge out of the lineup doesn't mean the only factor is his production versus Molina's. It also means Cano, for example, will be batting higher in the order and more likely to face a situation with RISP*.

*With the strength of the Yankee lineup, I am not actually sure that's true.

[55] Thanks. Yeah, it seems like the right call to me. Even if it is just a mental thing for AJ, then it would be wise to go that route in such a crucial situation (even with the offensive drop-off). Heck, I wouldn't care if Molina got several ab's during his time behind the plate...maybe even two in one inning, if you know what I mean...

[63] See also, "Why Small Samples Are Meaningless"

;)

[62] Its amazing to me that Leyland didn't use his expanded bench more. Larish not hitting was a terrible call. Letting Rodney keep going was a terrible call - but I'm not sure we can hold it against him. The only other pitchers on the staff he could possibly rely on to not give up oodles of runs, even to the Twins, were Jackson and Verlander. To have lost with Washburn, Robertson, or Galarraga, for example, on the mound, would have been a catastrophe.

And there was the Tigers' problem in a nutshell - not enough pitching.

I could say the same for Gardenhire's use of his bench, but I'm pretty sure the Twins' bench, even expanded, was horrible. How else to explain letting Tolbert bat 5 times?

[64] Yeah, it's also possible that Swisher moves into Jorgie's spot (switch hitter, keeps Rob comfortable in his usual spot). I don't know if this really affects Robinson's chances of facing RISP, since Swisher is so good at getting on base, but it does seem wise to keep Cano in the seven slot, just psychologically.

[61] [62] Yeah, also, especially having seen that foolhardy shoestring attempt in the previous inning, it really seemed to me a case of pressure getting to players who in turn tried to "do too much," as Waldman is so fond of saying. Both seemed on a par with swinging from the heels in a Big Spot against a strikeout pitcher with the tying RISP. Everyone wants to be the Hero.

[63] Thanks. Not bad. Could be worse.
[66] I asked.

Anyway, these decision are made combing over stats, so small sample size or not, it's all about match-ups and historical data. Such is baseball.

Rob Neyer seems to think it's no big thing, the Posada/Molina differential. I say they need to do whatever they can to let AJ be the good AJ. If he stinks, get him out, put Aceves in, with Posada in tow.

That said, my favorite game of AJ's was against Boston with Posada pirching. I suppose it was theexception to the rule. And, I agree with what someone wrote, that Girardi should have been working to improve the AJ/Posada relationship to see if they could get on the same page.

[67]I agree about letting Swisher be the floater. He is comfortable in any spot in the line up.

[70] Oh, Swisher is definitely the floater.

i didn't see this posted yet, so sorry it it was and i missed it-
guzman not on the alds roster, frankie c, gaudin ,and marte last men in

this was per lohud - does anyone else find those pictures, especially the sam borden one odd, maybe even scary?

Twins’ bench, even expanded, was horrible. How else to explain letting Tolbert bat 5 times?

Their usual replacements (Harris & Casilla) were deployed. Tolbert, Punto and Cabrera are the starters anyway, so I doubt that they'd get lifted for PH'ers

[73] But they all suck. Every one of those 5 guys you mention is terrible, horrible, black holes of suckitude with the bat. To say they swing ass-bats (h/t Bat-Girl!) is to insult ass-bat swingers everywhere.

OK, I'm being a bit dramatic. Cabrera isn't a black hole of suckitude - he's OK, but that's only because his SLG is .430; his OBP is a craptastic .313, and he's their permanent #2 hitter!

All of this is another way of saying, I do not fear the Twins.

[73] [74] And, just to finish up, starters or no, they have no one who could hit just a little better than those guys?

I guess not, or you'd think they'd have been starting back in, oh, May. Incredible.

[72] I don't have a strong comment about the pictures, but LoHud after Pete has been just as good, if not better.

[76] i agree william. even though he just started yesterday, it is obvious chad will do very well. sam and the other guy (josh i think) get a lot of info and still see this as something fresh.

[75] Believe it or not, they were improvements; Casilla and Joe Crede were starters @ the beginning of the season.