Over at ESPN.com, Howard Bryant takes a look at a Boffo World Serious match-up:
This is the World Series everyone who cares about top-shelf baseball has been waiting for: a National League team that plays with an American League attitude — and actually has a power threat on its bench to play designated hitter — that features a comparable, fearsome lineup versus the pre-eminent American League team, with a $200 million-plus payroll in its inaugural year in its $1.3 billion stadium built for one purpose — to win the World Series at all costs.
How both teams arrived at the summit underscored the critical distance between each and its closest competitors, and neither has been challenged this postseason the way they will challenge each other during the coming week.
…Underneath the global issues lie delicious subplots: Pedro Martinez pitching once again against the Yankees in a pressure situation; Lee and Sabathia, the two former Cleveland aces, pitching against each other instead of as the front end of a pitching rotation as they once did. Two homer-friendly ballparks not necessarily favoring either home team will provide the stage, two rabid fan bases providing the acoustics. And there will be no shortage of stars: Cy Young winners Martinez, Lee and Sabathia; World Series MVPs Rivera, Cole Hamels and Derek Jeter; and regular-season MVPs Rodriguez, Howard and Rollins. If the World Series has been something of a dud this decade — three of the past five Series have been four-game sweeps and none has gone beyond five games, while the Series hasn’t reached a Game 7 since the Angels beat the Giants in 2002 — Phillies-Yankees portends to provide the antidote.
I have it on good authority that ESPN won't publish an article or column on the Yankees that doesn't contain the words " $200 million-plus payroll."
I'm honestly having trouble figuring out who Bryant is talking about being the "power threat on [Philly's] bench to play designated hitter". Surely he doesn't mean Matt Stairs (.379 SLG)? Anyone have a thought?
[1] I also liked how Torii Hunter blamed the payroll:
I've never seen a bunch of papers beat a team of major league baseball players in a game of baseball before.
/snark
Then he goes with a mea culpa in the next sentence: "Plus, in the eighth, we gave it away." Yeah, it was that plus the payroll; clearly the payroll made all the difference. He does realize his team had a bigger payroll than all but 24 other MLB teams, right? Unreal.
In fairness, I thought Torii's payroll line was lame, but the full quote was pretty gracious.
The payroll line really is lame, though. It's a perfect excuse that's likely to appeal to his fans, unlike practically any other excuse he could give.
What's particularly absurd is the idea that a player could use payroll as an excuse. If a GM did it, I'd have some sympathy. "Geez, I made a lot of good choices, and I even got Torii on our team, but no matter how smart I am I'm not going to be able to compete with Cashman's ability to spend money." Fair enough.
But Torii just has to play against the other team's players. If they're better than your players, well, yeah, there's going to be some reason. It's as if he said, "We couldn't beat the Red Sox all those years, because battle as we might we just couldn't compete against Theo Epstein's genius."
Torii put up a .776 OPS against a big payroll. Yep, CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett and Andy Pettitte get paid lots of money, because they're better than your guys. They aren't better because of their salaries.
[3] Don't pick on Toriiiiii. He can catch a fly ball, make a poor throw home AND keep one eye on third and cry about a runner NOT leaving early.
King Kong vs Godzilla is a severe mismatch. In the movie they had to make King Kong way bigger than he originally was. In real life King Kong would be no match for Godzilla, mark my words.
[7] You are forgetting about King Kong's salary...Godzilla couldn't beat that payroll... ;-)
[3] Did Hunter say that?
Asshole.
I'm really disappointed in him. He's otherwise a likable guy.
So, I guess the payroll is what made Matsui's popup drop unmolested, Vlad get doubled off in outrageously inexcusable fashion, two consecutive blown plays at first base on free outs, etc., etc., etc.
Wait a minute, doesn't Godzilla breathe fire?
How the hell can King Kong, however big they please to make him, compete with that?
[10] See [8]. If the payroll thing didn't work then he would probably win due to his previous use of PEDs...or the Umps making bad calls that should have gone the way of Godzilla...or even the powers that be from FOX who want to see King Kong win due to the higher tv ratings he would provide...
I applaud Alex on his sneaky titles for his last two posts.
Yes, Peek Freans are very serious cookies.
[5] yeah a player should not say that. particularly not a player who followed a paycheck to anaheim last year. also, isn't it kind of rude to his teammates? like, how can we compete when the yankees have so many good players and we can't afford that?
Toriiiiiiiii wishes he had a bigger payroll so he could go out and buy some class.
[11] Not to mention, the SEC refs are on the side of King Kong.
This is probably pointless, but I figure it's worth a shot.
Anyone have or might know someone with a reasonably priced ticket for either game 2 or 6?
I'm thinking of making the trip from Cali to try and see a game since I've never been a post-season game in Yankee Stadium (new or old) and I've never been to a World Series game, either.
Flights aren't too bad (<$200), but the cheapest tix I can find on stubhub are $400.
Ouch.
the other funny part is how many teams can overpay for gm jr and then realize he sucks and get toriiiii to come in a year or so later to play cf and make gm jr possibly the most expensive 4th/5th of in mlb
whatever man.
[16] hope for bad weather - that'll get the prices to drop. hope you manage to find something - good luck.
[17] Sounds like Game 1 is the only day that might be affected by weather, everything else looks like there's going to be really nice weather.
[16] holy crap, dude - LESS than $200 for the cross-country flight? that's "teh awesome"! factor that in w/ the expensive game ticket. will you have to do hotels or do you still have family/friends in Joisey?
i got a decent priced flight to NY for Turkey Day, but it's more than $200. not much, and it was mostly taxes, but still very good for the holiday...
GO YANKS!!!
Godzilla eats King Kong for breakfast. Not even close.
The payroll talk is pathetic. [17] You nailed it, ms. october, teams that sign GM Jr. types to that kind of contract clearly have no idea how to use their money!
toriiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii also kinda making moreno out to be cheap. meanwhile, dude gave toriiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii 90 MILLION dollars. he needs to shut the fuck up and lose like a man. dumbass.
[19] I was going to fly in day of the game, see said game, hopefully celebrate a Yankees victory in a bar somewhere for an hour or two and then head back to the airport to nap until my crack-of-dawn flight left.
[20] i got a cd in the mail today (actually 3). i didn't realize McCoy Tyner recorded FIVE later Blue Note titles in the 90's and beyond. who knew?! anyway, i bought all five. i'm sure you're shocked! got one today.
it's a duet with Bobby Hutcherson on vibes & marimba! it's a really terrible album. these guys just can't play. it's ruining my dinner. total waste of money. ; )
it's a really nice record. it's called Manhattan Moods.
my manhattan mood, is all about da Bronx, right now!!!
[22] oh my god, you are a MANIAC!!!
and i mean that in a totally awesome way with mad props and respect!
you are hardcore, my friend!!!
you going to the big Phish Halloween show in Northern Cali this weekend? i'm sure you are. i may have gotten the details wrong, but i think that's what's going on. one of my students from here is flying out with his wife and i'm sure my best friend in Denver is going...
i'll be watching Game 3
[23] haha, i HAVE Manhattan Moods! This may be ont he one time I can say I had an album before you :)
[24] Actually, it's down here, out in Indio, where the Coachella Music Festival is held every year.
But I'm not going. Seen 7 shows this year already and frankly, I hate festival shows, too many people, hard to see the band.
I'll be watching game 3 with a friend of mine from Philly.
[25] no way, how cool! : )
yeah man, i don't know everything about the BN releases when the label re-started in 1985. i'm trying to pick up the ones from the major artists in the "classic" period. i had 1 Andrew Hill, but now have the 3 he did in his 2nd go-round with the label. i have all 5 of the McCoy's. there are a bunch of Turrentine - i have 2 or 3. there's a Freddie Hubbard i need. the Joe Henderson live 2cd set is amazing! i've got ALL the Tony Williams.
i've got some more rare BN's coming from Japan, including a couple i never even knew about, like a Tommy Flanagan w/ Elvin Jones. i mean, i had that title on a discography list, but for some reason, it never registered with me. was expensive, but worth it!
[26] oh, cool. i hear ya on seeing them a lot and not liking festivals. i generally only like festivals when I'M playing them and have a pass, to relax backstage. i'm MUCH more comfy *on* the stage than watching it from a crowd.
i hung out w/ a buddy this weekend who's a HUGE philly phreak and was in town. when i emailed him last night, i addressed it as:
Dear Enemy,
: )
[20] Not the new King Kong. He kicked several Godzilla-like dinosaurs' butts while holding on to Naomi Watts and keeping her beautiful face unscratched. Gorilla dude is a total stud.
Good, I'm in time for Jazz Banter.
Off topic, but does any one else feel that the post game champagne celebrations come off as contrived now that everything is prepared for and protected---plastic sheets, goggles, etc. It's kind of like preparing to have sex. Let's see: condoms on night stand, check, KY, check, Barry White, check, lava lamp, check, clean shorts, check, "OK Honey, I'm ready, you can come in now. Let's party."
[27] Tyner on Blue Note is generally a winning bet, but be careful with some of Freddie Hubbard's albums..he had a period there in the late 70s and early 80s where the disco backing just took over. Fun for a party but not for any serious listening!
With Elvin Jones' wife being Japanese, he was here all the time starting from the 60s. A guy told me there used to be many Japan-only bootlegs floating around but these days all gone..
[29] Yeah, and I think he sacrificied himself at the end cause even HE was bored with how long that film was..Naomi excepted..
[30] actually, you're late - 1st round is on you!
[32] yeah, i know it about Hubbard. it's especially like that w/ Turrentine. but if they're on Blue Note...well, you know the drill ! : )
Naomi? don't you mean - Naima?! ; )
[33] That's a privilege, not a penalty!
[2] Ibanez
[35] awww!!!
[29] No no no, those dinosaurs were nowhere near the size of Gojira. Gojira is HUGE. He knocks down buildings. He takes out Kong 10 time out of 10 unless Kong is giant-ized and
[10] throwing big rocks.
[31] Agreed! What's the point of the champagne celebration if everything is covered? Even more so, there should be no celebrating until you win the pennant..getting the Wild Card only to lose in 3, what's the big deal?
[36] Jackson, Charvel, Kramer.
you're talking about heavy metal guitar companies from the 80's...right?! ; )
[39] In fact, there should be a federal law preventing the Red Sox from celebrating at all!
[39] I almost forgot. "Honey, did you put plastic sheeting over the drapes?" "Yes, dear." "Are you wearing your goggles?" "Yes, dear." "OK, get the cameras rolling. Here I come."
[40] Man, I told you about the "Dokken" bar here right? Well, somebody told me there are sister bars out in west Tokyo called "Pyromania" and "Hysteria". Owner a huge Def Leppard and 80s hair-metal fan obviously!
[42] Goggles.
Now I'm getting interested.
[44] Sorry. I gotta go to work. I will check in later to see if there's a climax.
[44] They do things differently out here, you don't want too many details from Boatzilla... :)
[43] that's awesome! the bandleader saturday said over the mic, "back for the attack," so i, of course, screamed out: "rockin' with dokken!" : )
[44] you goggle ogler!
[45] Gettin' & Jettin'
[47] Goggle ogler, that's worthy of Diane!
[44] where were you last night - you were abdicating your banter responsibilities :}
[48] This thread getting too racy for me, am going to go read some Steve Phillips analysis... (oh..low blow perhaps?)
[25] i just realized that the 1st day of recording for the Manhattan Moods record, was on my birthday! and they were in NYC. i was actually at Penn State at that time. i wasn't very happy, either. i was a total jazz snob though and one of my roommates missed my satanic ways and bought me a Slayer CD for my b-day gift! : )
[49] high praise!
[50] I know. :-( Miserable not to be at the BB party. Just couldn't do it -- stupid obligation in the (so-called) real world, you know.
Thelarmis, is it true that you have never tasted champagne???
[55] that is most definitely . . . TRUE!!!
[54] well you were missed - hope you are back for the serious
i might miss a tiny part of game 5 (if necessary) but have worked hard at scheduling that real life crap around the ws
thelarmis - you are a strange cat - and i say that with cc sized love:}
[56] Knew it!
Thanks, Ms. Oct., I will be back for sure. Just a one-time obligation, is all.
Hey, look, I spilled my champagne!
I-< ....
[57] i've been called worse! really not that strange though. just picky about what i put in my body, foodwise...
okay, a little weird. ; )
unfortunately, i don't have a lot of work right now, so i'll be around for pretty much everything. i am gonna try and move a lesson up on Wed, so i don't miss the very start of the Serious.
champagne = too bubbly for me! (full disclaimer: i *may* have had a sip on NYE in high school, or something. and HATED it. beer me!!!)
[49]
You rang?
I s'pose goggles ... and a splash-proof lens on the video camera?
Hey, Diane:
When computing OPS+, when you divide SLG by lgSLG and OBP by lgOBP, does the "league" average mean the MLB average, or (e.g.) the AL average?
[61]
I *believe* it is the specific (AL/NL) league
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OPS%2B#Adjusted_OPS_.28OPS.2B.29
[57] i had friends from 'Bama in this past weekend. Mobile & Gadsen. you going home for Turkey Day or X-Mas?
[62] Yeah, that's what I believe, but I can't find anything definitive. Wikipedia, Baseball Reference, and everything else I can find just say "league average".
I asked David Pinto, and he said the same -- he's pretty sure it's NL/AL.
It makes more sense to use AL and NL, and real baseball geeks tend not to use the word "league" for MLB. But I'd like to see something definitive.
[44] There's a great line from "Manhattan" (ok, they're all great, but this one's germane):
Mariel Hemmingway: Let's do it some strange way that you've always wanted to try but no one would ever do with you.
Woody (faux scandalized): What kind of talk is that? All right, I'll get my scuba-diving gear and really show you a good time.
[63] that's cool.
yeah i'm going home for turkey day - mom is hopefully coming here for christmas - hope you have a nice turkey day trip
[64] i know you are looking for something definitive - but one more interpretation is you wouldn't adjust by league if everyone was in the same pot (ie all of mlb)
[66] Well, it would still be useful for comparing across eras, or at least from year to year. But, right, it does seem more helpful to 'normalize' by circuit, since that way you adjust for the DH and maybe some other "run environment" factors. (Park Adjustment Factors are separate, of course.)
[31] I don't think they are contrived...that would be like saying opening gifts on Christmas is contrived. Just because you prepare for a celebration doesn't make it a formality. After all, just because the plastic is hanging and the bubbly is on ice doesn't mean you get to use it, which is the real moment of spontaneity. I am sure teams like the 1986 Red Sox can speak to that.
This thread is longer than a game thread in early September! Must be something big on the horizon. ;)
[61] I am not sure if you don't trust my answer (in which case I apologize for continuing to respond), but OPS+ doesn't use a baseline league average. If you look at B-R.com, there is a different "league OBP" and "league SLG" for players on different teams. The answer isn't as straightfoward as your question. Instead, it is a park factor, schedule based baseline.
[62] That explanation, like most on wikipedia, is pretty poor. I'll try to find a more definitive article.
The most definitive answer I could find is a step in the OPS+ calculation from B-R.com:
"Using these adjusted values compute what the league average player would have hit lgOBP*, lgSLG* in a park."
So, as you can see, the lg rates are not baseline figures, but computed averages based on park factors. In other words, Arod isn't compared to the AL, NL or MLB average OPS. He is compared to the average of what was produced in a schedule similar to his (with stadium park factors applied accordingly).
There are clearly alot of shortcoming with OPS+, but as long as you understand them going in, it is still a useful metric for a quick and easy comparison.
[65] I knew I forgot something. A snorkel and flippers. "OK, now I'm ready." "Are you wearing the nitie I got you for Valentine's Day, Sweetie." "You meant the leopard skin one?" "No the Yankee pinstripe set with no. 69 on it...."
[68] It just doesn't look as spontaneous and joyous as the on-field celebrations. Maybe they should bring the champers out to the diamond. Shades of Wade Boggs one of NY finest equestrians.
[72] I guess it's a matter of perspective, but from my standpoint, it definitely looked joyous. Basically, the champagne is the reward for winning, but it isn't a forgone conclusion. You still have to win. I've played on teams that have used champagne in celebration, and the symbolism of the act itself is what makes it fun, not the originality of it.
[73] Well, it certainly looked fun. At holidays in my house or in-laws house, I used to launch the champagne corks to give everyone a thrill. Now I'm too much of a careful dad, and I've been worrying that one of the Yankees is going to lose an eye. Some rookie mistake and CC loses his focus. Ouch.
[74] Oh, God!! What a horrid thought.
[71]
I don't know what you mean by "baseline figures".
They are denominators, which is exactly what I said,
I think you may have misread the page you quoted, because it says very plainly that "lgOBP and lgSLG are the slugging and on-base percentage of a league-average player". They are definitely not computed using park adjustment factors. I think you confused lgOBP with lgOBP*, which is Tom Tango's parameter.
[71][76] Jeez guys, get back to yer mother's basements, would ya? I was reading about the Mets Jeff Francouer, a REAL LIFE baseball player who PLAYS THE GAME. If he doesn't have any use for your geeky numbers then why should we?
Still cracks me up that the Angels dared to mention the NYY payroll..after they signed Gary Mathews Jr to one of the worst contracts in the game!
[76] The formula has denominators, but they are not constants. The league averages are specific to each team. B-R.com ABSOLUTELY uses park factors to calculate OPS+. Again, I encourage you to look at the lgOBP listed for different players on the site. It is different for every team.
So, in summary, league average doesn't mean NL average, AL average or MLB average. It is a park adjusted average based on a team's schedule (i.e., the parks a team has played in).
If that still doesn't satisfy you, I'd suggest emailing Sean Formann for a confirmation.
[77] It's tough playing in the small market of Los Angeles. Only big markets like NY can afford to sign players from smaller clubs...just like Vlad (Expos) and Hunter (Twins).
[76] Also, the part you quoted is not how B-R.com calculates OPS+, but how Total Baseball computes its PRO+ statistic.
One more illustration:
Posada's comparable lgOBP: .336
Arod's comparable lgOBP: .336
Varitkek's comparable lgOBP: .347
Pedroia's comparable lgOBP: .347
Rollins' comparable lgOBP: .343
Utley's comparable lgOBP: .343
As you can see, the lgOBP is not a league average player (i.e., the average of all NL, AL or MLB players), but a total specific to each individual team.
[78]
First, as I mentioned a couple of times, there are different versions of OPS+. The + just indicates that the stat has been 'adjusted'. Baseball Reference uses one particular version, but it is idiosyncratic. All versions use lgOBP and lgSLG as denominators.
When Baseball Reference lists lgOBP and lgSLG, they do seem to adjust them for the park, you're right (in sabermetrics this is usually written as *lgOBP to show that it is an adjusted stat). But they don't adjust them for "what was produced in a schedule similar to his", which would include what pitchers the player faced.
But I think you have really missed the point here. When they adjust the league average by applying park factors, which average are they adjusting? The NL/AL average, or the MLB average?
[80]
It is a league average adjusted by park factors.
Look, he says, step one, compute the runs created for the league with the pitchers removed...
Step two, adjust this by the park factor.
In step one, what is the league?
That's the question.
[77] That reminds me, wouldn't it be great if Steve Phillips were replaced by someone who's spent a lot of time in his mother's basement? (Uh, not in Mrs. Phillips' basement.)
just sent this around to my friends (some who are Yanks fans, some who are not), and thought I'd share it with my friends here at the Banter:
Bring on the World Champeen Phillies, and their silly green mascot!
Bring on the grumbling about the Yankees payroll even though how much they spend is utterly irrelevant when they lose.
Bring on the meme about the Yankees having a fruitless farm system when nearly half of the 25 players on the postseason roster are homegrown - including 5 of the 9 players who were on the field early Monday morning when they clinched the pennant..
Bring on the jeers about steroids(ARod) and HGH(Pettitte) even though we may never know the extent to which performance enhancing drugs were used around the league.
Bring on the cutaways of Kate Hudson, because she's been in precisely one movie we can think of.
Bring on the complaints about ticket prices, beer prices, parking prices, gasoline prices - bring on the wind, rain, sleet, Sarah Palin, and Swine flu and blame it all on the Yankees!
Blame anything you want on the Yankees, but know the truth in your baseball loving heart that from the moment the first pitch is thrown tomorrow night (weather, and Fox programming-notes permitting) until the last pitch of the World Series is thrown (look, it's Mariano Rivera!) - none of the above matters. What matters is high-stakes, winner-take-all, loser-go-home baseball. All that matters in these last 4 to 7 games of 2009 is pitching, hitting, fielding, throwing, running, umpiring, and luck (though the last two don't always enter the room together).
May the best team win, and may that team prove itself to be the Yankees!
Bring on the World Serious!
[82] Ah...I get what you are asking. The league average calculations are park adjusted figures of the league average metrics. So, for the Yankees, you would start with the AL average OBP and multiply it by the combined park factor.
I thought you were implying that the denominators used were AL or NL averages, and that after the calculation a park factor was applied.