Correction to an assertion I made within this vid: Pedro Martinez has one postseason start on three days' rest, in the 1999 AL Division Series opener. He left after four innings due to a back strain, then famously returned four days later to pitch six hitless innings of relief to close out the Indians in Game Five.

Regardless, he ain't going on three in this series.

Good pitchin talk. Is there another episode on hitting enroute? Splits, ridiculous OBS numbers, NYS v. CBP?

Also, I'd like to request that Cliff and Jay wear huge butterfly collars with obscene print shirts during the next segment (since it appears you guys are having a 70's-off). :)

The 1970s called. They want their facial hair back. LOL.

Definitely good banter there fellas. I think you aptly summarized the Yanks slight advantage here: both starting and relief pitching.

Miguel Cairo is off the roster for the Phillies. Clearly we have just won.

[4] Whoa. The Phils' BFOG quotient just dropped dramatically. They're cooked.

I think I'm being unfairly lumped in with Jay's Burt Reynolds stache and patterned shirt.

Meanwhile, what are OBS, NYS, and CBP?

Don't know what OBS is, but NYS = New Yankee Stadium, CBP = Citizens' Bank Park?

[7] Ah, yes, well we do indeed address all of that in tomorrow's segment.

[5] I know, Miggy has the highest BFOG+ of any player still in it.

Funny story, when I worked at NYU there was a security guard in my building who looked *exactly* like him. I mean, dead ringer. Every morning I'd see him and wonder why Miguel Cairo was now working security for NYU, though he was the most clutch of all the guards.

[6] dude... your burns are in the same league!

My bad, I meant OBP, and yes New Yankee Stadium and Citizens.

cult if you are around prices dropping
- jump on your flight now!!

anything on roberston beyond cliff's tweet of steve goldman's take?

[10] D'oh. I almost shaved them when I cut my hair short a couple years ago, but I just can't go full-on squaresville (not without some incentive, that is).

[11] Doesn't seem so. Could be Steve was sniffing after something that wasn't there.

If they pitch Lee 3 times, don't we have to pitch CC 3 times? If not, doesn't that give them an edge? As far as I've heard, Girardi hasn't committed to a 3 man rotation yet.

Did Jimmy Rollins really predict Phillies in 5?

[13] thanks cliff. cerainly hope robertson is good to go.

[14] espn's schedule has them both going in game 4. the lh guys said girardi has not named a game 4 starter and i have seen somewhere the phillies may be using blanton in game 4.

[12] how about if the yanks sweep :}

[14] CC pitching on three times is somewhat independent of whether Girardi uses a three- or four-man rotation. It depends on whether he wants to start AJ or Pettitte on short rest too. Otherwise, he can go with CC in 1, 4, and 7, AJ (?) in 2 and 6, Pettite in 3 and a fourth starter in 5.

I'm for the three man rotation, short rest for everybody.
AJ has a pretty good history on short rest. Andy, more worrisome.
But remember that for Games 3, 4, 5, the starter is fairly likely to leave the game early for a PH. That means AJ's short rest start and CC's first short rest start could well be short short rest starts. Short.

[16] what do I get if the Yankees sweep?

[19] What else is there?

[20] a lot.

The Yankees and Phillies are in the World Series, but the team doing the most celebrating tonight has to be the Seattle Mariners. Why you may ask? Because Kenji Johjima decided to opt out of the remaining two seasons of his contract, which still had $15.8 million remaining. As for Kenji, he is returning to Japan to play for Hanshin, and signed a four-year, $21 million deal to do it.

As for the team doing the least celebrating, that would have to be the Dodgers. According to AP, "Jamie McCourt on Tuesday filed for divorce from Dodgers owner Frank McCourt in Los Angeles and asked a judge to reinstate her as the team's chief executive."

If it guarantees a Yankee sweep, I'll shave anything...no questions asked!

Sportsbook.com odds:

2009 World Series - Outright
* New York Yankees 11/25 (bet 25 to get 11)
* Philadelphia 81/50 (bet 50 to get 81)

Series/games
* Philadelphia Win 4-0 20/1
* Philadelphia Win 4-1 8/1
* Philadelphia Win 4-2 6/1
* Philadelphia Win 4-3 11/2
* Yankees Win 4-0 7/1
* Yankees Win 4-1 7/2
* Yankees Win 4-2 7/2
* Yankees Win 4-3 9/2

I've been watching the 1999 ALCS this week and two things stand out:

1) It's incredible that 10 years later I am still watching several of the same players performing near peak levels as they win another pennant.

2) Knoblauch's throwing problems really did get bad.

[24] Shave the whales! >;)

[25] Wow, that's very Yankee-friendly indeed. I wish I were that optimistic!

Also very screwy odds. You only get 7 to 1 if you bet on a Yankee sweep?? That's ludicrous.

[18] Good thinking!

How would a straight three man rotation affect the Dynamic Duo of AJ-Molina? Wouldn't that mean that AJ would start one game in the NL, meaning that Girardi would have to bat the 8-9, unless he starts Posada.

But if he starts Posada one game and Molina one game, is he STILL going to carry Cervelli? Or, is he going to bump AJ to the #3 starter so that he can avoid pitching in the NL?

In any case, if Girardi can get over his paranoia that Posada might get hurt in the few innings that he plays after Molina starts, he should just drop Cervelli. Then he could carry Hinske AND either Guzman or the notorious 12th pitcher.

By the way, I love all the payroll talk and articles about how much the Phillies want to beat the Yankees (and how their fans despise their arrogance). Not only is the music to my ears as a Yankee fans, but I also think it's great for baseball. Having the big bad wolf to root against is important in sports, especially one as regional as baseball.

[30] Yep. It's good business if everyone is rooting against (and even a few for) one of the teams in the WS. And it will be really good business if the series is drawn out to 7 games.

Now to make things clear, I don't business to be THAT good. A Yankees sweep would satisfy me just fine.

[29] maybe i am missing something - but if aj is #3 starter - game 3 is in philly
i don't think there is anyway to avoid burnett in philly

no mats or po plus molina and burnett batting is gross

Speaking of odds, I did a little checking on a point from the last thread. I said I thought there were more errors on bunt attempts than on ordinary swings. Part III of the Baseball Prospectus article, "Taking one for the team", provides some info.

Since "Error" or "Fielder's Choice" or "Hit" are subjective scorer judgments, James Click instead gives the probabilities of the various outcomes: Success (meaning the batter is out and the runner advances), Failure (meaning the runner is out and batter is safe), and Overachievement (meaning runner and batter are both safe). With a man on first, the rates are 61.7%, 23.5%, 14.8%, respectively. (They differ slightly for man on second and men on first and second.)

14.8% is obvious much higher than the error rate for an ordinary ball hit in play. Some of those "overachievements" are not errors, but that's not really the point. The point is that sac attempt is not really "giving away an out" since there is actually a decent chance that no out is made.
Notice, though, that there is an even greater chance that the out is utterly squandered: 23.5% of the time the batter is out and the runner doesn't advance. (There is also a small but significant chance, amounting to a couple of percent or so, of bunting into a DP.)

Factoring in both the chance of overachievement and the chance of failure leads to pretty negative conclusions about sacrifice attempts. The situations in which they raise the team's chances of winning are very few. Click's "When is one run more valuable than two?" concludes that except in a tie game in the ninth, it's practically impossible for a sac attempt to be worth while, unless the batter is really horrible (a pitcher, basically, and not Dontrelle Willis).

anyone watching this Holmes/Ali doc on ESPN? 30 for 30 really has been great, I gotta admit.

as far as Rollins picking the Phils in 5, I can't say I'm all that surprised. And frankly I can't even get that mad, he's got his ring and his MVP so he can talk if he wants to. It's on the Yanks to shut him up.

the next 24 hours are gonna go slooooowly.

[32] Aj has to start game 2, otherwise Pettite would be used on three day's rest in that game too.

[26] that '99 ALCS really was some ugly baseball, winning in 5 was nice and all but ooooph some of those games (especially Pedro/Clemens) were tough to watch

[35] yep that too - but it seems impossible to avoid aj in the nl - unless the yanks go to a 5 man rotation :}

[36] There were lots of bad calls by the umpires too (makes this post season look mild), but the Yankees were a much better team than Boston that year. At the time, I really don't recall the "rivalry" factoring into the equation, so it's fun to watch it now. In many ways, the 1999 ALCS is forgotten, but it shouldn't be...with it, the Yankees hold a 2-1 ALCS advantage over the Red Sox in head-to-head.

[37] Quite the opposite...it seems as if AJ can only pitch games 2 and 6, both of which are in NY.

[39] okay - i don't know why i am getting myself so confused - if the yanks go with a 3 man rotation burnett would pitch game 2 (ny) and 5 (phi); if they go with a 4 man rotation burnett would pitch game 2 (ny) and 6 (ny)

Damn it's nice to be on the Banter talking baseball during the world series....I'm glad Hinske is on the club but I'd kind of like to find a way to keep Guzman too...maybe jettison Cervilli?

[38] yeah I remember that 9th inning in game 4, I believe, where lots of pretty awful calls went against Boston and the whole thing kinda got away from them.

Game 1 was pretty great with the Bernie walkoff, and anytime you can clinch a pennant at Fenway thats a fun thing too.

My favorite forgotten playoff series is the '00 ALCS against Seattle, people forget how tight that thing was.

[40] Right...but I am assuming they go with a 4-man unless they are down 3-1 heading into game 5.

[42] It was one awful call in the bottom of the 8th, but a bang-bang play at first in the bottom of the 9th set off a mini-riot.

The best part of that series is George sat right by the Yankee dugout. I wish he was healthy enough to do that in this World Series.

I don't really look at the 2000 ALCS as forgotten because the Justice HR was pretty huge. It was very close though. The Yankees were one inning from going down 0-2 heading to Seattle.

[43] I don't get that.
Oh, do you mean the expected rotation is

CC AJ Andy CC Gaudin AJ CC

?

[24] Rumor here (from someone who is in a position to hear such things) is that the Mariners took very good care of Johjima before he made his way back to Japan..it's consistent with the Japanese way of doing business, money things are not discussed up front a lot of the time..in any case, he was not a very good MLB player (and kind of an a-hole according to some sources!)
He should do all right with Hanshin though.

I LOVE Jimmy Rollins laying the smack-down! I want to see some real hatred on the field this WS!

[45] Right...I am thinking you go with Gaudin in Game 5 so you can avoid using AJ and Pettitte on short rest. Ideally, I'd love to have Pettitte for 2 and 6, but that was made impossible by the ALCS going 6. Still, I think you can have Pettitte ready to go if AJ falters early.

[46] According to USS Mariner, those rumors don't appear to be true. Considering what Kenji had waiting for him in Japan, it seems as if the Mariners had more leverage here.

[45] [47] so you both think cc will go short rest and start 3 games even with a 4 man rotation?

[49] Yep...I think you start with the idea of CC going 1,4 and 7 and then fill in 5 and 6 based on how the series has progressed.

Also, if Gaudin does start, I wouldn't let him go through the order more than 1+. I would hope for 3 innings tops and then go right to Aceves for a similar stint.

[49] I hope CC goes 3 if need be..I don't want to see any bit of Chad Gaudin against the Philthies...

[46] Really? Interesting! I'll give my contact here a stern talking to abotu passing me faulty gossip!

Yeah, that could happen, because you get CC three times but don't need the others on short rest.

Can I say, though, that if this is the best plan, it remains the best plan even if the Yankees go down 3-1?
Think of it this way. When you're down 3-1, you have to win all the rest of the games. So you want your rotation to give you the best chance of winning the next three, not the best chance of winning the next one.

[52] If they go down 3-1, I think you have to take the chance that Pettitte and AJ can go on three days rest because if Gaudin bombs, then you are out. If you haven't lost three games, you still have life if Gaudin bombs. In fact, you are backed up by a full rested AJ and CC.

[52] i am not so sure that cc won't go game 1, 4, 7

so it sounds like there is no support for cc, aj, andy, gaudin, cc, aj, andy

But who gives the Yankees a better chance to win: Gaudin, or Pettitte on short rest?

If it's Pettitte, then we should just use a 3-man rotation. If it's Gaudin, then we should stick with the program even if down 3-1.

[55] Has to be Pettite on 3-days rest, no? I know I would not spend the winter sulking if we lose with Andy P on the mound..losing with someone like Gaudin is unacceptable! Use your top 3 and live or die with them...

and so far there is no rain predicted in philly.
i will die believing rain was a major reason why the yanks lost in 2004, this year a convenient rainout of game 4 seems like it would be karmic retribution.

[54] Right, CC in 1, 4, 7, that's exactly what I had in mind (look at my little list in [45]).

I would rather have CC pitch the third time. I remember your point, a good one, that it's a little worrisome to have the opposing batters face the same pitcher a third time in a week and a half. Even so, replacing Andy with CC3 looks like a good bet to me.

[56] I would say so, yes (Andy on short > Gaudin).
But I bet there's some insider info that we don't have. Maybe Andy just doesn't feel comfortable with it or something like that.

A good alternative would be, Andy for three innings on short rest, Gaudin for three, then some combination of Bruney/Robertson/Hughes/Joba/Mo. Oh, and Marte will be brought in to walk Rollins, of course.

[55] In the game, Pettitte on short rest is probably the better gamble. To win the series, however, it might be better to give the start to Gaudin.

In other words, while Pettitte on 3-days rest > Gaudin, I think Gaudin + full rest AJ > Pettitte on 3-days rest and AJ on the three days rest.

Or, more simply, I think AJ on 3-days rest compared to 4-days rest might be a bigger drop off than Gaudin versus Pettitte on 3-days rest.

To be honest, I don't think there is really a clear cut answer. What happens over the course of the series could wind up tilting the balance. The only thing I think that should be set in stone is CC for 1, 4 and 7.

[57] I really, really believe Saturday's rainout made a difference in the ALCS.

By the way, Mr. OK [46], on the Rollins trash talk:

"I couldn’t care less about what he says, basically, because that’s not what’s going to happen,” Mariano Rivera said. “What he says and what’s going to happen is far from that. You know what I mean?”

Oh yeah, we do.
Bring it.

[59] Please don't even joke about Marte..I feel nervous already..

[60] Yeah, that's possible, though as a matter of fact AJ has been good on short rest.
My favorite option is the 3-man rotation, but actually if we're up 3-0 I might go to Gaudin, for analogous reasons to your dropping him if we're down 3-1 (use it as a 'house money' game, setting up all three of our studs on full rest).

[62] Predicting that your team will win doesn't bother me. If he had said something like the Yankees have no chance, then I would consider it trash talk. Also, Rollins likes to be the center of attention. If he thought the Phillies would be swept, he'd still make a bold prediction. What I would really like to know is what game Rollins thinks the Phillies will lose?

[62] Oh Shit, Mariano with the comeback!! I, for one, am glad the Yanks are no longer "classy". Who wants a classy team in New York, anyway? Bring it on!!

[64] He only has 4 starts on 3-days, but three of those were last year, and they all were very good. Still, it's October now and alot of innings have been thrown. The cold temperatures could also be a factor. Basically, it becomes a decision you have to make more on feel than stats. If AJ looks awesome in his throw day, then maybe you consider it more. If he has no velocity and seems hesitant, then I think you avoid it.

[61] so you think we have been paid back - no more rainouts to benefit the yanks?

[58] yep - got you.

[62] mariano rivera ladies and gentlemen.

so i am obviously a bit bored tonight - but joe bloody west is one of the umps for the ws - fortunately he is not behind the plate in game 1, but he might be at some point

[64] One other point worth making is that I don't think starting Gaudin is that bad, especially if you keep him on the shortest of leashes and make sure he pitches around Ibanez.

[68] I consider the accounts settled from 2004, but that doesn't mean we can't take out another deposit.

[68] I believe the rotation would put him behind the plate in game 2. West isn't a bad umpire, but his attitude is annoying.

[71] Is that "Country" Joe West? I have a problem with anything related to (contemporary) Country music..it's one more reason I detest Josh Beckett...

[71] i think his zone is awful, and terribly inconsistent - he is the last person i want behind the plate with aj on the mound

[72] yep tis he

[72] I am not a fan of Country, but don't hate it either. West's voice actually isn't that bad...too bad he doesn't make it a full-time gig.

[73][74] Not sure anyone saw this last week, but I linked to Tim McCarver's new album of "standards"... there is no joke necessary here...

http://www.amazon.com/McCarver-Sings-Selections-American-Songbook/dp/B002OJGGH6

Maybe this was already discussed during a daytime thread that I missed?

[75] The comments in that Amazon page MUST be fake..too funny!

[75] This albumn is absolutely ridiculous. I saw it several times on FOX and thought it was a joke. I still think it has to be...what else would explain someone creating a CD on which he sings so damn awful?

I assume he produced the CD on his own? Also, if you needed a reason to doubt the reviews on Amazon, just read some of the ones for this CD. Hysterical.

[76] [77] the picture is classic. at least the phrase bionic throat has been added to my lexicon

[76] What? You disagree with the following:

"From the first note it is clear that even a legend like Plácido Domingo has nothing on McCarver. So dewey, so tender, so ... American."

I mean, who couldn't fall in love with the shrieking beauty of his A Nightingale Sang in Berkley Square?

The worst part is I absolutely LOVE these songs. It's desecration.

[78] I believe "Bionic Throat" was an entry in the short-lived 1970s "sci-fi porn" genre...

Ok, enough potty talk. Time for some work!

The sad part is I can think of 50 people for whom the CD would be a brilliant gag gift. I am laughing just thinking of them opening it. Maybe that was the method behind the madess. Honestly, if I was going to write a comedy sketch for baseball fans, I don't think I could do better than Tim McCarver sings the Great American Song Book.

[72] i've had a decent number of country gigs and have grown to appreciate it. my jazz trio backs up a pop-country singer/songwriter team and it's actually fun. oh, and Carrie Underwood is freaking gorgeous!!! : )

i got a solo McCoy Tyner CD on Blue Note today. i have another one coming soon. he's, um...a little bit good. wouldn't ya say?!

good news/bad news: i barely have any jobs right now, so i can't turn down work. i *just* picked up a gig for Thursday night. i HAD to take it. i'm gonna miss Game 2. it might be on at the venue, but who knows. i'm gonna be sooo on edge. we best win Game 1. (and 2...and...)

[81] "Joe Morgan Back in da' Hood: Joe covers hip-hop golden age classics!"
"Joe Buck: The Grunge Years"
"Steve Phillips & Nana Mouskuri: The Duets!"

There are endless possiblilites with this..

[83] Just need to make sure that Steve and Nana record from separate studios.

[82] We'll miss you here, but hopefully you'll have something to celebrate after your work is done.

[79] i love how you're writing "on which" and "for whom" like timmay speaks!!!

i used to play Gee Baby Ain't I Good To You & One For My Baby (And One More For The Road) with a piano player/singer guy. my jazz trio used to play I'll Remember April (instrumental, as a Samba).

I wonder if "Change Partners" was for Peterson/Kekich! ; )

[85] thanks man! i'll be drinkin' afterward, either way - hopefully in celebratory ways!

work is just soooo bad right now, i couldn't turn down the gig. i really wanted to see the "pedro game"...

[86] Any chance of recording "thealarmis plays the American Songbook while McCarver absolutely massacres it"?

[79] I'll see your Tim McCarver butchering classics and raise you one Bob Zimmerman

from the amazon comments:
"This is a musical feast fit for a Jeter. "

Chip Caray's solo CD = A musical FIST !!! (in the Metal vein, of course).

Joe Buck can guest on the track "Squirts Through The Two-Hole" !!!

(believe it or not, i'm eating whilst typing this crap. no wonder i hate most foods!)

and to think, part of my dad's b-day gift (thursday birthday), is the new Bob Dylan 2cd+dvd set. coulda gotten him this disc instead... ; )

[87] Hard to believe there is another "Pedro game". Seems like there have been a ton of them in Yankeeland, but none more hyped than Pedro vs. Clemens in game 3 of the 1999 ALCS (the only game that team lost in the post season).

[88] what does it pay???

[86] "TIMMAH!!! LIVIN' A LIE"

My favorite song to sing on Rock Band.

Wish more Karaoke places had it in their repertoire ...

[89] I like to think Bob has gained enough credit with me to do anything. But a Xmas album...??

[92] The privilege of listening to McCarver sing (oh, and you have to put up half the production costs).

[89] ugh. there's the Dylan/Kenny G connection - Jews recording X-Mas albums! haha!!!

i recorded a song for an x-mas comp a few years back. (shhh, don't tell my mom!!!). 'cept i don't think it's a religious tune. william - maybe you can help me out here...the song was "Nature Boy" - Nat King Cole did it. (Jazz Tokyo - Three Sounds did an instrumental version on Black Orchid). the piano player swore up and down it was about baby jesus and no one else seconded that motion. you know anything about "nature boy"? besides the fact that it's a very nice tune!

thelarmis, i didn't know who Carrie Underwood was..you did a gig with here??! Yowzah!!

[94] Frankly, I can't quite decide what to think about it. Listening to the song snippets on Amazon, it sure sounds a bunch like a trainwreck ... but is that a bad, or good thing.

[95] bollocks! hell, i'll play just about anything with anybody, for money, at this point...

if they're payin', i'm playin'!!!

have grooves, will travel. : )

[96] That's an often recorded, but not very popular song. I've never heard it considered a Christmas song though. Sinatra song it too.