Is Beltre worth $9 million? Yeah. If you believe in most of the fielding metrics, anyway. Beltre was worth more than $9 million last season when he was hurt and spent five weeks on the disabled list. Usually — when he’s not hurt and not spending weeks on the DL — Beltre is worth far more than $9 million.
You’re going to see this deal referred to as a steal in some quarters. Unless you’re a doctor with an intimate knowledge of Beltre’s current physiology, you really can’t know that. But the Red Sox had half-a-hole at third base, and now they don’t have any holes at all. It must be a good feeling, to know in early January that you’re essentially ready for a 95-win season.
Fack Youk asks the question: Is Javier Vazquez unclutch?
To say that he can’t handle New York not only gives too much weight to a small sample size but requires a jump that conflates the pressure of in-game situations to be analogous to the demands of pitching for one franchise or another.
…Even if you grant that Vazquez gets worse under pressure and will pitch worse just by virtue of being a Yankee, he’s still likely to be better than league average and throw more than 200 innings. It would be extremely difficult to do that and not add significant value to a team regardless of how his performance is distributed by leverage.
And of course, there’s a big difference between “hasn’t” and “can’t”. I’m willing to say that Vazquez certainly hasn’t pitched well under pressure in his career, but not that he can’t. He clearly had a great year in Atlanta and some of that has been attributed to an improved change up, giving him a second pitch to miss bats with in addition to his curveball. FanGraphs shows that his curveball was what stood out last year, but his change up looked to be improved as well.
Finally, over at Lo-Hud, Chad Jennings, profiles the Yankees’ bullpen. “Jonathan Albaladejo could show up in spring training throwing 122 mph fastballs for strikes, and Rivera would still be the closer.”
Nice.
95 wins, huh? I'd like to see a Neyer commentary after he takes head out of the Red Sux collective ass.
so Rod Gilbert just gave Jason Bay a Rangers jersey at his press conference. The Mets bother me and I truly despise the Rangers (lets go Devils)...but that is a pretty cool touch considering Bay is a B.C. boy.
oh yeah, 43 days until Pitchers and Catchers.
That Fack Youk quote is gobbledy-gook
Beltre is a decent signing for a team that needs (or thinks it needs) a 3B, but the amount of attention it is getting can only be explained by the acquiring team being the Red Sox.
[1] How so? The Red Sox have averaged around 95 wins the past few years.
does anyone else giggle a little bit when you hear someone say "well I saw this really insightful study over at Fack Youk..."?
[1] FWIW, I have written (in the comments of a thread on this very blog) that I think with Beltre (and their other moves), the Red Sox are a 100-win team on paper for 2010. Rest assured that my head is not up the Red Sox collective ass.
Criticize the particulars of Neyer's analysis (or mine) if you like, but an ad hominem is not convincing.
[4] That, and nothing else of note has happened in MLB for a week now (Bay's signing having been announced, IIRC, 1 week ago today). The Hall of Fame vote announcement tomorrow will soon overwhelm us.
[6] To be honest - yes.
Its really a brilliant name for a Yankees blog. Not quite as good as NoMaas though.
[7] 95 wins has usually been a reasonable benchmark for the Red Sox, but I see the 2010 incarnation as being closer to 90 than 100. Either way, I think both parameters leaves them behind the Yankees, which I guess isn't much a surprise. If both teams make the post season again, no one should be surprised.
Watching Minaya at the Bay press conference makes me really appreciate Brian Cashman. I like Cashman's straight-talking, harried manner. Minaya seems a bit phony up there - a fake smile, etc.
Jason Bay seems like a reasonable man.
[9] I now think the Sox are a 95-win team, but I agree that the Yanks should beat them. Even factoring in defense (or lack thereof), Vazquez + Johnson > Lackey + Cameron, especially if they foolishly use Cameron in LF and continue to play Ellsbury in CF.
i don't know why people always complain about rob neyer here. he definitely writes a lot of good things about the red sox, which makes sense since they have been one of the top teams in baseball for a long time now. but he also writes a ton of nice things about the yankees. in the last week alone he's written 2 blog entries praising the yankees and cashman ("yanks fine without superstar lf" on 12/29 and "cashman's made yankees younger, better" on 12/30), and also linked to this article with emphatic approval: http://tinyurl.com/ylmskmo.
http://tinyurl.com/ylmskmo
I complain about Neyer here and elsewhere because I think he is a smug hack and a hater. Hey, we've all got opinions.
hey william did you just get an answer from neyer?
I just read the Fack Youk article. Excellent analysis confirming what I've felt all along, i.e. that Vazquez wilts in high-leverage situations (especially with runners on base).
The 2nd paragraph quoted above, however, misses the point. Vazquez, with all of his shortcomings, is indeed still the best #4 starter in baseball. But is one year of the best #4 starter in baseball worth
a) trading your highest-ceiling pitching prospect
b) crippling the development of at least one high-ceiling major league starter
c) maxing out your payroll, leaving a major gap in outfield depth?
[7] I wasn't attempting to convince you of anything. But you are aware that games are not played on paper, right? Your opinion is that the Sux will win 100. Mine is that such crap is not worth discussing and that Neyer is a douche.