Over at SI.com, Cliff takes a look at the big Matt Holliday signing:
Even in light of Holliday’s new contract, the Cardinals have very few contractual commitments in the coming years. The only other Cardinal guaranteed more than $1 million beyond 2011 is Kyle Lohse, who will earn just under $12 million in 2012, the final year of his ill-conceived four-year extension, the handiwork of current GM John Mozeliak. Aces Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter and All-Star catcher Yadier Molina all have club options for 2012 (for $9 million, $15 million, and $7 million, respectively) with Wainwright having an additional $12 million option for 2013. If all three stay healthy, the Cardinals are unlikely to find better bargains on the open market, but if the team picks up all three options, they’ll have roughly $60 million committed to five players in 2012, and with Pujols a potential $30 million player, they could surpass their 2009 payroll on just six players. That means the Cardinals are either going to have to significantly increase their payroll, pinch pennies everywhere other than first base and left field, or bid goodbye to Pujols after 2011 if not before.
It’s flatly inconceivable that the Cardinals would sacrifice their ability to keep Pujols, who is not only the face of the franchise but the best player in the game and one of the ten greatest hitters of all time, for Holliday, a solid all-around player but one who comes with significant questions about his true level of production given the effects of his home ballparks prior to his arrival in St. Louis. The most likely scenario, really the only one that makes sense, is an increase in payroll. Even with young players such as Colby Rasmus, Brendan Ryan, and David Freese in the starting lineup, with more than $40 million annually committed to just two players, the Cardinals will be hard pressed to field a balanced team and keep team payroll under $100 million.
I think what this means is that the Cardinals are doing pretty well and realize that the best way to maintain that is by winning. The core players mentioned are good enough that even at $60mn, the Cardinals should be able to field a very good team around them, especially playing in the NL Central.
[0] [1] With attendance in St. Louis being what it is, and support for the Cardinals what it is, I think the Cardinals can easily up their payroll to cover the costs to come. It means DeWitt might make less profits in the years they don't go far in the playoffs, but I think that's a worthwhile trade.
Cliff, your analysis reminded me of the argument between Esteban and Don Miguel Rojo in A Fistfull of Dollars:
ESTEBAN (Random GM of Some NL Team): It's easy... a back door trade and we could be done with it, and we can get back the first round picks. Listen, I could do it right now, while he's not expecting it...
DON MIGUEL (Owner of Said Team): You're stupid, Esteban; even if you are my GM! Bah! A back-door trade, eh? And what if your numbers are slightly off and you miss? And with the Yankees so quick on the draw?
ESTEBAN: But I was only thinking...
DON MIGUEL: YOU LET ME DO THE THINKING AROUND HERE!!! Get this through your head, I want this off-season to be quiet until Ramon (Scott Boras) comes back! You heard me? A quiet off-season...
Cashman, having observed all of this quietly and unseen, quickly and quietly returns to his office on River Avenue...
>;)
Yeah, but it's a good and thorough analysis and I enjoyed reading what I was thinking already laid out so well. Moreover, a concern could be that if St. Louis has indeed shot itself in the foot, would not the Red Sox be first in line to hand Pujols the keys to their domain? The end of 2011 likely sees Ortiz gone, (Cameron?), Beltre and Lowell bad afterthoughts and Yukky moving back over to third at the drop of a hat. Interesting, if nothing else...