[Here is another guest post by Jon DeRosa. Jon has previously written two pieces for Bronx Banter (here and here) and will be a semi-regular this season. Jon played ball at Georgetown and still has that sweet, lefty swing.–AB]

By Jon DeRosa

Of the 8 teams that entered the 2009 postseason, 7 teams saw their closer blow a save or lose a game. The 8th team was the Yankees. As they marched to the 2009 World Series Championship, much was made of Mariano Rivera’s fabulous and unprecedented Postseason career. And rightly so, because no pitcher has ever approached the same quantity of quality innings on the game’s grandest stage. But there are a few quirks of history from which Mariano has undoubtedly benefited that have enabled him to compile his mind-boggling numbers: He plays for the most successful team and his career began exactly at the introduction of the Divisional Playoff Round. He stands, not just alone, but so far isolated as to discourage any conceivable comparison. Nobody’s numbers compare. Nobody’s innings compare. It’s Mariano and then a Grand Canyon to somebody else. And that’s how I like my heroes and gods – unassailable.

But in 2008 didn’t Brad Lidge have a much ballyhooed “prefect” season and playoff run? And wasn’t Papelbon annoyingly brilliant the year before that? And Wainwright and Jenks? And most painfully, didn’t Foulke do a ballsy job in 2004? So then, isn’t the closer on the championship team likely to have pitched as well as Mariano has in any single year? Or do Mariano’s individual series stand out from the pack in the same way that his overall numbers do?

I looked at the closer on every World Series team from 1995-2009 (TB 2008 was the only team without a nominal closer) and compared their postseasons. I wanted to know which guys were the most dominant (K/9, K/BB, BR/9) which guys were the most effective (R+IR/G, WPA) and which guys shouldered the heaviest loads (INN, INN/G) and faced the toughest jams (aLI). I don’t claim to reach definitive conclusions, but I think there’s valuable information to be gleaned:

1) The highest WPA for any closer was 1.56 for John Wetteland in 1996. The lowest was Trevor Hoffman’s –0.35 from 1998.

2) Brad Lidge in 2009 faced the highest leverage situations at 2.90. And it’s no surprise he failed, since 11 of the 13 closers facing the highest aLI’s failed in the World Series. In contrast, 15 of the 16 lowest aLI’s saw the closer emerge unscathed. John Wetteland again distinguishes himself by facing the highest leverage situations without failure (and 4th highest overall): 2.36.

3) Memory matches the stats as Foulke’s change-up racked up 19 Ks in 14inn and Wainwright’s curve ball baffled more than just Beltran – 15 whiffs in 9.2 innings.

4) The Red Sox emulate the Yankees in at least one respect: they want to use Papelbon for multiple innings in the postseason. Other than Mo, Papelbon was the only pitcher to average more than an inning and a half per appearance in any single postseason.

5) Only 3 pitchers have kept a perfectly clean ledger – no runs inherited, earned or unearned. Papelbon, Wainwright, and Rivera (99).

6) Eight of the 15 World Series losers saw their closer blow a game (I am including Rocker in 1999) while only 3 of the 15 winners endured a meltdown. (For ranking purposes below, if he blew a game while losing the series, I didn’t consider him – both Rocker and Rivera version 2001 would have done well otherwise.) Regardless of your opinion on the value of closers, it’s hard to win a 4 game set when you cough up a lead in one of the games.

Based on my totally arbitrary weighting of the factors, Mariano Rivera has turned in the top 4 postseason runs (and 5 of the top 8) of the Wild Card Era. His 1999 and 2003 stretches far exceed other entrants, while his1998 and 2000 are next in line. After Wetteland’s underappreciated (by me, at least) 1996 campaign, Mariano owns the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th and 8th highest WPAs. He has the most dominant postseason, 2003, in which he struck out 14, walked none and allowed a scant 7 hits in a massive 16 innings. He has the most effective postseason, 1999, where he contributed 1.41 WPA while allowing zero runs to cross the plate in 12.1 innings. And, what really separates him from everybody else, he gave the Yankees the most innings AND the most innings per appearance. Mariano checks in with the three highest totals 16 (03),16 (09),15.7(00) and the three highest averages 2.0 (03), 1.57 (00), 1.54 (99). Papelbon and Wainwright would rank as the two highest non-Mo postseasons: Wainwright falls well short on volume and usage, Papelbon on volume and dominance. Surprisingly, 2009 was not an especially brilliant performance – but only by Mo’s own lofty standards. He walked far more than usual and while he logged 16 innings, they were spread out over 12 games, so he was good for about 1 out less per outing then back in the dynasty years.

There is a chink in the armor however. Compared with the other closers, Mariano faces unusually low leverage situations. Only the 2001 run was conducted during comparatively grueling conditions. Observational bias makes me question this – weren’t the Yankees constantly playing really close games where every pitch was do or die? Yes, but probably no more than any other team in the playoffs. What’s more, Torre and now Girardi knew Mariano could handle a big workload, so maybe they used him more freely in lower leverage situations feeling secure he’d be available the next day, too. Excuses aside, it doesn’t sit well that he failed memorably the one time he faced a very high aLI.

Even with the aLI bringing him back to earth a little bit, Rivera does truly stand out from the rest of the pack. In truth, he has a harder time distancing himself from, well, himself. So if Rivera owns the top 4 postseasons (by one calculation anyway), which is the best overall? You can’t go wrong picking a vintage Mo, but I wonder which year comes first in your hearts? I’m torn between 1999 and 2000. He was staggeringly great in both years but base runners were merely scarce in 1999, they were an endangered species in 2003.

Yankee fans will remember 2003 as the year Joe Torre allowed Jeff Weaver to lose a World Series Game while Mariano Rivera sat idly by in the bullpen. This would be an egregious mistake in any circumstance, but given the fact that Mariano was as close to untouchable that year as he might ever get, it’s actually dumber than most of us have acknowledged. Simply put, Mariano was on another level that year. While Aaron Boone’s home run was the lasting image of the 2003 ALCS on TV, thousands of us remained in the stands for an hour afterward watching Mariano Rivera celebrate like nobody’s business. There is an amazing picture of Boone rounding second base where you can Mariano has already flung himself on the pitcher’s mound in cathartic jubilation. This was not your cool, calm and collected Mariano Rivera. This was the inner warrior unleashed, and he would not be denied his World Series. It’s my entirely biased and unscientific opinion that the Yankees definitely win the 2003 World Series if Torre had used Mariano appropriately.

But they didn’t win, did they? And because he didn’t have to face the ultimate test, the closing out of the World Championship, maybe 1999 is the better postseason? Rivera did not allow any run (earned, unearned or inherited) to cross the plate that year. And he accomplished that within the context of much higher leverage situations – 1.63 to 1.16. He picked up some hardware each year, ALCS MVP in 03 and WS MVP in 99. I have fewer “Mo-specific” memories of 1999, though I do remember an important match-up with Chipper Jones in Yankee Stadium. But that’s because Mariano wasn’t yet the “Greatest of All Time” he was just on his way there. Chipper had previously spoiled an absolute gem by El Duque by annihilating his one mistake of Game 1 and gave the Braves a slim margin that almost held up. The lesson was clear – don’t let this man get a good swing at inside fastball. And now here he was representing the last real roadblock along the parade route in Game 4 – 2 outs, 2 on, top of the 8th with the Yankees holding a 3-1 lead. I remember being worried, knowing Rivera would probably go inside, but not yet being fully trustworthy of the unique nature and routine devastation of the cutter. But I worried for nothing. Chipper’s bat from that game would not being to Cooperstown, unless they have a need for wood chips up there.

An amazing thing about some of Rivera’s greatest postseasons are that they kind of unfolded quietly, under the radar –as he was chiseling his immortal space in baseball history, we were busy worrying about the “Team of the Century” or some other nonsense. And an amazing thing about Rivera’s continued success (especially 2009) is that it played out fully under the immense weight and pressure of historical narrative. Every jam was a suggestion of inevitable demise, and each final out was a fragile extension of unexpected life. To life.