Hey, this PECOTA projection isn't good. At all. (Short version: PECOTA thinks our pitching will suck and that as a result we'll finish out of the playoffs.)
Stick that PECOTA up yer Abe Vigoda, I say..out pitching will be more than good enough (as long as bad AJ doesn't come round more than once a month.)
[1] Good NBA coverage there, and I really like Keith Law. Am done with Rob Neyer now though, no Ryan Howard on his 100 top players of the decade..WTF?!? Maybe I just don't undertsand baseball..that seemed too strange..
[3] Those 789 projected runs allowed would still be the 5th-best pitching staff in the AL. And it only puts the Yanks 2 games out of a playoff spot and 3 games out of the division title - well within the margin of error, methinks.
It also gives Jamie Hoffman 139 PA, which I don't think is going to happen - and look at the bullpen! Hughes gets only 59 IP, Aceves 50 IP, and Marte 40 IP. I think those numbers are way off. Somehow Boone Logan gets 45 IP (!), no way he gets used more than Marte. Then there is a 100 IP from Albaladejo (40), Edwar (30), and Mitre (30) - also not going to happen. Oh, and Gaudin throws 101 innings, split between the pen and spot starts. Unless there are significant injuries or unexpected ineffectiveness, that's simply not how the bullpen is going to go.
SG (perhaps the SG of RLYW fame?) comments that the projected ERAs add up to 673 earned runs allowed, but the overall projections show 789, a RA:ERA ratio of 1.17, which SG says has only happened "59 times in 1507 team seasons since 1946". Someone else comments that the league ratio is 1.14, based on the standings, and that is a much higher run environment than has been seen the last few years.
In other words, I'd take these initial standings with a huge grain of salt.
[2] Don't know, but adding Jon and DodgerThoughts has got to be a huge get for the ESPN LA site. There's no better Dodgers blogger. Congrats to him and best wishes to the DT regulars.
[6] I'd buy that. Their 3rd order record last year was 87-75, and I think they've gotten worse in the offseason, don't you?
Though given the horrible playing time allotments in the Yankees' depth charts, I have to wonder how accurate or poor they are for other teams as well.
Huh. A reason to visit espn.com. I never thought I'd have one.
good for jon - congrats.
i wonder how much inroads the various espn/city site have made. jon should bring a pretty big following to the la one.
Hey, this PECOTA projection isn't good. At all. (Short version: PECOTA thinks our pitching will suck and that as a result we'll finish out of the playoffs.)
Stick that PECOTA up yer Abe Vigoda, I say..out pitching will be more than good enough (as long as bad AJ doesn't come round more than once a month.)
[1] Good NBA coverage there, and I really like Keith Law. Am done with Rob Neyer now though, no Ryan Howard on his 100 top players of the decade..WTF?!? Maybe I just don't undertsand baseball..that seemed too strange..
[3] Those 789 projected runs allowed would still be the 5th-best pitching staff in the AL. And it only puts the Yanks 2 games out of a playoff spot and 3 games out of the division title - well within the margin of error, methinks.
It also gives Jamie Hoffman 139 PA, which I don't think is going to happen - and look at the bullpen! Hughes gets only 59 IP, Aceves 50 IP, and Marte 40 IP. I think those numbers are way off. Somehow Boone Logan gets 45 IP (!), no way he gets used more than Marte. Then there is a 100 IP from Albaladejo (40), Edwar (30), and Mitre (30) - also not going to happen. Oh, and Gaudin throws 101 innings, split between the pen and spot starts. Unless there are significant injuries or unexpected ineffectiveness, that's simply not how the bullpen is going to go.
SG (perhaps the SG of RLYW fame?) comments that the projected ERAs add up to 673 earned runs allowed, but the overall projections show 789, a RA:ERA ratio of 1.17, which SG says has only happened "59 times in 1507 team seasons since 1946". Someone else comments that the league ratio is 1.14, based on the standings, and that is a much higher run environment than has been seen the last few years.
In other words, I'd take these initial standings with a huge grain of salt.
[2] Don't know, but adding Jon and DodgerThoughts has got to be a huge get for the ESPN LA site. There's no better Dodgers blogger. Congrats to him and best wishes to the DT regulars.
Basically, Pecota is showing that the East is a Beast. Again. It will be. You think Angels are 10 games under .500 though?
[6] I'd buy that. Their 3rd order record last year was 87-75, and I think they've gotten worse in the offseason, don't you?
Though given the horrible playing time allotments in the Yankees' depth charts, I have to wonder how accurate or poor they are for other teams as well.
Good for Jon. Like RI says, a reason to visit e@#$.com; whowuddathunkit?