[Here is another guest post by Jon DeRosa. Jon has previously written two pieces for Bronx Banter (here and here) and will be a semi-regular this season. Jon played ball at Georgetown and still has that sweet, lefty swing.–AB]
By Jon DeRosa
Of the 8 teams that entered the 2009 postseason, 7 teams saw their closer blow a save or lose a game. The 8th team was the Yankees. As they marched to the 2009 World Series Championship, much was made of Mariano Rivera’s fabulous and unprecedented Postseason career. And rightly so, because no pitcher has ever approached the same quantity of quality innings on the game’s grandest stage. But there are a few quirks of history from which Mariano has undoubtedly benefited that have enabled him to compile his mind-boggling numbers: He plays for the most successful team and his career began exactly at the introduction of the Divisional Playoff Round. He stands, not just alone, but so far isolated as to discourage any conceivable comparison. Nobody’s numbers compare. Nobody’s innings compare. It’s Mariano and then a Grand Canyon to somebody else. And that’s how I like my heroes and gods – unassailable.
But in 2008 didn’t Brad Lidge have a much ballyhooed “prefect” season and playoff run? And wasn’t Papelbon annoyingly brilliant the year before that? And Wainwright and Jenks? And most painfully, didn’t Foulke do a ballsy job in 2004? So then, isn’t the closer on the championship team likely to have pitched as well as Mariano has in any single year? Or do Mariano’s individual series stand out from the pack in the same way that his overall numbers do?
I looked at the closer on every World Series team from 1995-2009 (TB 2008 was the only team without a nominal closer) and compared their postseasons. I wanted to know which guys were the most dominant (K/9, K/BB, BR/9) which guys were the most effective (R+IR/G, WPA) and which guys shouldered the heaviest loads (INN, INN/G) and faced the toughest jams (aLI). I don’t claim to reach definitive conclusions, but I think there’s valuable information to be gleaned:
1) The highest WPA for any closer was 1.56 for John Wetteland in 1996. The lowest was Trevor Hoffman’s –0.35 from 1998.
2) Brad Lidge in 2009 faced the highest leverage situations at 2.90. And it’s no surprise he failed, since 11 of the 13 closers facing the highest aLI’s failed in the World Series. In contrast, 15 of the 16 lowest aLI’s saw the closer emerge unscathed. John Wetteland again distinguishes himself by facing the highest leverage situations without failure (and 4th highest overall): 2.36.
3) Memory matches the stats as Foulke’s change-up racked up 19 Ks in 14inn and Wainwright’s curve ball baffled more than just Beltran – 15 whiffs in 9.2 innings.
4) The Red Sox emulate the Yankees in at least one respect: they want to use Papelbon for multiple innings in the postseason. Other than Mo, Papelbon was the only pitcher to average more than an inning and a half per appearance in any single postseason.
5) Only 3 pitchers have kept a perfectly clean ledger – no runs inherited, earned or unearned. Papelbon, Wainwright, and Rivera (99).
6) Eight of the 15 World Series losers saw their closer blow a game (I am including Rocker in 1999) while only 3 of the 15 winners endured a meltdown. (For ranking purposes below, if he blew a game while losing the series, I didn’t consider him – both Rocker and Rivera version 2001 would have done well otherwise.) Regardless of your opinion on the value of closers, it’s hard to win a 4 game set when you cough up a lead in one of the games.