Cliff is keeping busy over at SI.com. Here is his latest: How much of an improvement will big new additions be?
Let’s cut to the chase:
Javier Vazquez, SP, Yankees
Vazquez was one of the best starters in the National League last year, while the Yankee fifth starters whom he’ll be replacing (Chien-Ming Wang, Phil Hughes, Sergio Mitre, Chad Gaudin, and Alfredo Aceves) combined to post a 6.92 ERA over 32 starts while throwing just 147 innings. Vazquez is unlikely to repeat his career-best 2009 season (2.97 ERA, 238 K’s, 7.4 SNLVAR) and will suffer some from returning to the tougher league, but he’s replacing a combined performance that was a half-run below replacement according to SNLVAR. That makes him pure upgrade, and one which looks even better when you factor in the middle-relief innings he’ll also be replacing (Vazquez averaged 216 IP over the last decade).
Estimated upgrade: 4+ wins
…
Curtis Granderson, CF/LF, Yankees
Whether Granderson winds up playing center or left for the Yankees, he’ll be replacing Johnny Damon’s total at-bats while some combination of Brett Gardner and Randy Winn will replace Melky Cabrera at the other spot. Offensively, Damon was worth four wins over replacement last year according to VORP, which is the same level of production Granderson provided for the Tigers in 2008, but in 2009, Granderson fell off to 2.5 wins. He’ll have to rebound to close the gap, which is smaller than it first appears due to the fact that Damon cost the Yankees a win in the field last year, dropping his total value to three wins over replacement. Granderson’s defense is a matter of some dispute. UZR had him as close to a win and a half above replacement in center in 2006 and 2007, nearly a win below replacement in 2008, and roughly average in 2009. The Yankees should expect average defense from him in center and perhaps better than that in left, which means that, even before factoring in a rebound at the plate (some of which will be due to his escaping the lefty-killing Comerica Park), he would be at least as valuable as Damon in left field and could likely hold the line in center as well. While that may not sound like much for 2010, it’s worth noting that Granderson is seven years Damon’s junior and signed to a reasonable contract for the next four years.
Estimated upgrade: Even
9 days to pitchers & catchers. I wonder if Curtis's defense will be helped by playing in a smaller CF. (Downside would be that warning track flyballs in Comerica would be home runs in YS.)
Woo hoo, due to the snowstorm here in Toledo I get to leave work at 3 pm!
[2] Let's go snowstorm! (clap, clap, clap-clap-clap!)
The boss was offering hotel rooms to those of us who have long commutes into the city - but I'm gonna try to get home to the wife and kids tomorrow night. It'll probably be a 3 hour bus ride back to NJ (hello, ipod).
Back in the day, I would've gladly taken a room in town, and enjoyed the blizzard from a nearby pub. Still a fine option, but I'd rather get home.
We'll catch the snow tomorrow. I plan to stay home -- I just hate the driving. (No subway from Providence to the boondocks where I live!)
My brother lives in Bethesda, where the schools were closed yesterday and today because of Friday's snow, and will be closed the rest of the week because of the new stuff.
Wimps.
I am not a big fan of comparisons that use only the previous year's statistics. In the case of Damon and Granderson, such an excercise begins with the assumption that Damon will repeat a career year, while Granderson will again have a disappointing year. I am not sure how many wins (more/less) Granderson will provide compared to Damon, but I don't think the place to start is by assuming that last year is the baseline for both.
[4] the dc metro area is ridiculous. the way they react to snow confirms to me they are the south.
nyc schools are closed tomorrow.
i do think how well granderson does this year will be pretty telling as to how well the yankee offense performs.
[6] I'm traveling to D.C/Virginia area for work, the way they deal with snow removal is effing awful. You have to see the parking lots. I heard on the radio that this area has already exceeded their budget for snow removal for the year.
[5] Cliff's bottomline win estimates are based on last year/this year, but his broader analysis does take into account previous seasons.
I lived in Arlington VA '94-'97, with friends in DC. One winter was particularly bad right after New Year's, schools were closed most of the first two weeks of January. Arlington was decent at clearing snow, but DC was horrible. Basically, if you were in neighborhoods that Marion Berry liked, you were cleared first.
BTW, I left at 3 pm, got home, walked the dogs, shoveled the driveway & sidewalk, took a hot shower and it's only 4:30. I'll be back out shoveling around 8. I have a longstanding policy against snowblowers, but I am rethinking it.
Columbia, SC basically would shutdown if there were 2 snowflakes in the air.
[5] The article is not trying to evaluate the quality of the transactions that brought those players to their new teams, only how much those players will improve upon the production their new teams got from the players they're replacing last year. Damon's 2010 performance is irrelevant to that improvement because it's his '09 production that Granderson needs to replace, etc. And, as Sliced says in [8], if you read the comment you see I acknowledge the bigger-picture benefits of the move.
"Whether Granderson winds up playing center or left for the Yankees, he’ll be replacing Johnny Damon’s total at-bats..."
Yes Cliff, and that is why I previously stated the proper comparison is Granderson v. Damon. It's an obvious upgrade if the offensive value is anywhere close. And it is. No more running wild on the Yankee LF at the very least.