Cliff is keeping busy over at SI.com. Here is his latest: How much of an improvement will big new additions be?
Let’s cut to the chase:
Javier Vazquez, SP, Yankees
Vazquez was one of the best starters in the National League last year, while the Yankee fifth starters whom he’ll be replacing (Chien-Ming Wang, Phil Hughes, Sergio Mitre, Chad Gaudin, and Alfredo Aceves) combined to post a 6.92 ERA over 32 starts while throwing just 147 innings. Vazquez is unlikely to repeat his career-best 2009 season (2.97 ERA, 238 K’s, 7.4 SNLVAR) and will suffer some from returning to the tougher league, but he’s replacing a combined performance that was a half-run below replacement according to SNLVAR. That makes him pure upgrade, and one which looks even better when you factor in the middle-relief innings he’ll also be replacing (Vazquez averaged 216 IP over the last decade).
Estimated upgrade: 4+ wins
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Curtis Granderson, CF/LF, Yankees
Whether Granderson winds up playing center or left for the Yankees, he’ll be replacing Johnny Damon’s total at-bats while some combination of Brett Gardner and Randy Winn will replace Melky Cabrera at the other spot. Offensively, Damon was worth four wins over replacement last year according to VORP, which is the same level of production Granderson provided for the Tigers in 2008, but in 2009, Granderson fell off to 2.5 wins. He’ll have to rebound to close the gap, which is smaller than it first appears due to the fact that Damon cost the Yankees a win in the field last year, dropping his total value to three wins over replacement. Granderson’s defense is a matter of some dispute. UZR had him as close to a win and a half above replacement in center in 2006 and 2007, nearly a win below replacement in 2008, and roughly average in 2009. The Yankees should expect average defense from him in center and perhaps better than that in left, which means that, even before factoring in a rebound at the plate (some of which will be due to his escaping the lefty-killing Comerica Park), he would be at least as valuable as Damon in left field and could likely hold the line in center as well. While that may not sound like much for 2010, it’s worth noting that Granderson is seven years Damon’s junior and signed to a reasonable contract for the next four years.
Estimated upgrade: Even