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The Laws of Jeteronomy

Joe Pos drops science:

You know the deal. Jeter’s contract with the Yankees is up at the end of the year. Both sides understand that they HAVE no choice but to work out a deal. The Yankees cannot possibly let perhaps the most beloved Yankee of them all go somewhere else and get his 3,000th hit and retire to another place’s cheers and under another team’s cap. Can’t happen. And Derek Jeter cannot possibly go play for the Rockies or the Brewers or the Red Sox or the Mets, it’s simply unimaginable for the man who still has the voice of Bob Sheppard introduce him. Can’t happen.

So the Yankees have to keep him, and Jeter has to stay, and both sides fully understand. But it is also becoming more and more clear by the day that Derek Jeter is declining pretty rapidly as a player.

17 comments

1 Shaun P.   ~  Sep 3, 2010 11:17 am

I had a big problem with Joe Pos's piece, and it was his citing of Michael Schur's comparison of Jeter to Yuni Betancourt: "let the record show that on Sept. 2, 2010 Yuniesky Betancourt (95 OPS+) had a higher OPS+ than Derek Jeter (94 OPS+)"

Well duh - in the fluke of his career, Betancourt is slugging .432 with 15 HR (both career highs), helped out in part by his .457 SLG at home. Betancourt's OBP, meanwhile, is its usual pathetic .289. Jeter's is at a low for him, but still almost average, .332.

OBP isn't the be-all end-all of statistics, but this why OPS+ is just a horrible, useless stat: it gives too much credit to SLG, and not enough credit to OBP.

And Ken Tremendous, of all people, should know better.

/dead horse

In any case, I remain completely unconcerned about what happens with Jeter. He'll re-sign, the Yanks will have no problems paying him even an outlandish sum completely out of line with his performance, and life will move on.

To me, the worst case scenario - Jeter's bat dies and does not come back to life, circa Mike Schmidt 1989 - is the only one to fear. Its also, to me, the least likely to happen, at least in 2011.

All this is to say - much ado about nothing.

2 The Hawk   ~  Sep 3, 2010 11:22 am

All this talk of Jeter's decline is so overrated. He had a GREAT year last year. If next year is like this one, then it's a decline. As of right now it's an anomaly.

It's funny because the consensus seems to be that Jeter is having an off-year at the worst time, but I think the Yankees are in a worse position. Is it a fluky year or the start of a trend? They won't know till he's already under contract.

3 Alex Belth   ~  Sep 3, 2010 11:26 am

"In any case, I remain completely unconcerned about what happens with Jeter. He’ll re-sign, the Yanks will have no problems paying him even an outlandish sum completely out of line with his performance, and life will move on."

Well, put.

4 seamus   ~  Sep 3, 2010 11:33 am

[2] yes, drawing a conclusion on a slump year is as bad as determining that because the trees are all losing their leaves in the fall that they are all dying.

5 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 3, 2010 11:36 am

Can anyone in the area use two tickets to today's game? No charge.

6 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 3, 2010 11:38 am

[2] The only reason I disagree is because Jeter looks like his bat speed has declined AND his peripherals are very scary. Also, he is 36, so a decline is not only possible, but historically likely.

7 monkeypants   ~  Sep 3, 2010 11:43 am

[0] But it is also becoming more and more clear by the day that Derek Jeter is declining pretty rapidly as a player.

[2]All this talk of Jeter’s decline is so overrated. He had a GREAT year last year. If next year is like this one, then it’s a decline. As of right now it’s an anomaly.

Hawk, you beat me to it and put it more succinctly than I would have.

It is not at all clear that Jeter "is declining pretty rapidly." It IS clear that he is having his worst full season in the big leagues, and that he will end the year with his worst offensive performance. And that indeed raises warning flags. But beyond that, we simply do not know if Jeter "is declining" rapidly or otherwise. Heck, maybe this is precisely what Jeter will produce for the next couple or few seasons. If so, then he is NOT declining...he has declined already to a new career plateau, a level that is not HoF Jeterian, but one that is not all that bad relative to his position.

As Hawk says, we'll have more to go on after next season, when Jeter will become the first Yankee to accumulate 300 hits in the regular season.

8 monkeypants   ~  Sep 3, 2010 11:45 am

[6] But presumably his peripherals *should* look bad if he is having a really bad slump year, right? That is, no one is arguing that he is having an unlucky year, but rather simply a bad year.

Now, the more subjective observation about his bat speed is more troubling.

That said, "historically likely" (regarding Jeter's alleged rapid decline) is a rather more conservative assessment than what Pos wrote.

9 monkeypants   ~  Sep 3, 2010 11:47 am

[7] "...accumulate 3000 hits in the regular season..." (for his career, of course).

Though it would be really cool if he got 300 hits next year!! ; )

10 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 3, 2010 11:49 am

[8] Perhaps, but Jeter is both hitting ground balls and swinging at pitches out of the strikezone at unprecedented levels, even for comparable years in terms of OPS+.

11 RIYank   ~  Sep 3, 2010 12:38 pm

Jeteronomy for Rookies

Remember that thou wast a servant in the land of Scranton, and that the BOSS thy Stein brought thee out thence through a mighty limo and by a stretched out contract: therefore the BOSS thy Stein commanded thee to take a day off every once in a while, though it paineth thee.

Honor thy manager and thy gm, as the BOSS thy Stein hath commanded thee; that thy days may be prolonged even unto November, and that it may go well with thee, in the stadium which the BOSS thy Stein giveth thee.
Thou shalt not hack.
Neither shalt thou commit IBB.
Neither shalt thou steal.

Ye shall walk, as frequently as possible, in all the ways which the BOSS your Stein hath commanded you, that your teammates might drive you in, and that it may be well with you, and that ye may prolong your days in the month of November which ye shall possess.

12 Raf   ~  Sep 3, 2010 12:50 pm

[5] Dang, I wish I had checked into the banter a bit earlier...

13 Alex Belth   ~  Sep 3, 2010 12:55 pm

12) That'll learn ya.

14 Diane Firstman   ~  Sep 3, 2010 1:02 pm

They're gonna play this game like there's Nova Morrow.

(insert groan here)

15 The Hawk   ~  Sep 3, 2010 1:10 pm

[12] Cosign ... Or later in my case. And earlier. Or whatever. My timing was off

16 YankeeAbby   ~  Sep 3, 2010 1:18 pm

[11] Awesome..

17 Angela823   ~  Sep 4, 2010 12:18 pm

If you would love to see our boy Swisher host Saturday Night Live in the off season, click on the following link, then click on "like"! Since it is a facebook fan page, you will have to login to facebook first! GO YANKEES!!! http://www.facebook.com/pages/We-want-Nick-Swisher-to-host-SNL/147327038614552

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