About taking the Division:
According to MP, the following applies:
============================================
2-way tie (if both teams stand to qualify for the playoffs)
* Head-to-head winning percentage
* Intra-division winning percentage
If we take 2 of the next 3, we tie TB in head-2-head.
Currently, TB has a Intra-Division record of 39-27 and we stand at 34-26.
If we Win 2 of 3 from TB, it's 40-29 (.580 Wpct) vs 36-27
With 10 games left (after TB), we will need to win 7 of 10 to have a Intra-league 43-30 record (.589 Wpct). 42-31 leaves us short, with a .575 Wpct.
If TB takes 2 of the next 3, they win the head-2-head, and thus the Division in a tie. Considering they then have 11 games against the worst 3 teams in the AL, and we have 7 against Boston and 3 against the BJs, it will be very difficult to gain the 1/2 game we will need to Win the Division.
Now TB could play badly against the leagues crappiest teams, but I'm not counting on it.
My conclusion: We MUST take 2 of 3 from TB for any kind of reasonable chance for the Division. Even then, since a tie probably goes to TB, it's an uphill climb.
AJ goes tomorrow and CC on Thursday.
It is possible/reasonable to skip AJ, push CC up to tomorrow and go with Andy on Thursday??
P.S. How much pleasure do you think the Sox will have if they knock us out? My bet is they will be playing VERY tough.
I realize you (Alex) and I saw one of Marty's picks together at Film Forum - Jean-Pierre Melville's "Le Doulos."
About taking the Division:
According to MP, the following applies:
============================================
2-way tie (if both teams stand to qualify for the playoffs)
* Head-to-head winning percentage
* Intra-division winning percentage
If we take 2 of the next 3, we tie TB in head-2-head.
Currently, TB has a Intra-Division record of 39-27 and we stand at 34-26.
If we Win 2 of 3 from TB, it's 40-29 (.580 Wpct) vs 36-27
With 10 games left (after TB), we will need to win 7 of 10 to have a Intra-league 43-30 record (.589 Wpct). 42-31 leaves us short, with a .575 Wpct.
If TB takes 2 of the next 3, they win the head-2-head, and thus the Division in a tie. Considering they then have 11 games against the worst 3 teams in the AL, and we have 7 against Boston and 3 against the BJs, it will be very difficult to gain the 1/2 game we will need to Win the Division.
Now TB could play badly against the leagues crappiest teams, but I'm not counting on it.
My conclusion: We MUST take 2 of 3 from TB for any kind of reasonable chance for the Division. Even then, since a tie probably goes to TB, it's an uphill climb.
AJ goes tomorrow and CC on Thursday.
It is possible/reasonable to skip AJ, push CC up to tomorrow and go with Andy on Thursday??
P.S. How much pleasure do you think the Sox will have if they knock us out? My bet is they will be playing VERY tough.
3) Fuck the fucking Sox.
[2] Party pooper >;)