by Bruce Markusen |
September 10, 2010 9:30 am |
19 Comments
As much as we might try to think otherwise, race does figure into how we perceive ballplayers. White players tend to remind us of white players, and black players remind us of other black players. I’m not sure if that’s wrong, but I am convinced that’s the way it is.
Along those lines, I’ve finally figured out who Ivan Nova reminds me of, not only in terms of appearance but also his delivery. It took me four turns through the rotation; I should have known earlier, given how few black right-handers the Yankees have employed as starters over the years. Let’s see, there was Dock Ellis in the seventies, Charles Hudson in the eighties, Pascual Perez and Doc Gooden in the nineties, Shawn Chacon more recently…and that’s about it. But none of those guys really remind me of Nova. Instead, it’s the now forgotten Melido Perez, Pascual’s younger brother and one of the few bright spots during the lean years of the early 1990s. Both pitchers are listed at six feet, four inches, with Nova outweighing Perez by about 20 pounds, 210 to 190.
At one time, specifically 1992, Melido Perez looked like the future ace of the rotation. He threw a good fastball, but tamed hitters with a killer forkball, a delivery that tormented left-handed and right-handed batters alike. Unfortunately, he threw so many of the forkballs that he ended up losing velocity, hurt his arm, and faded into retirement one year before the arrival of the glory years in 1996.
While Nova’s appearance and motion remind me of Perez, his repertoire of pitches differs from his predecessor. He doesn’t throw a forkball, instead relying on an explosive mid-90s fastball and a terrific overhand curve. Nova has drawn some
criticism for his lack of strikeouts during his minor league climb, but I’m not concerned given the quality of his stuff. If he can have the success that Chien-Ming Wang had over the first three years of his career, but avoid breaking his foot while running the bases, the Yankees will be pleased with the results.
They must be thrilled with what they’ve seen so far; Nova has pitched well in three out of four starts, with just the one clunker against the bashing Blue Jays. He has pitched capably enough to be thrown into the mix for the back end of the postseason rotation. Let’s assume that Andy Pettitte returns and gives the Yankees what they expect from a No. 2 starter behind CC Sabathia. That leaves the third and fourth starters up for grabs, with Phil Hughes, A.J. Burnett, Javier Vazquez, and Dustin Moseley trying to box each other out for position. From my vantage point, Hughes seems like a cinch for the No. 3 spot; for all of his second-half struggles, his season ERA is still significantly better than Burnett and Vazquez, and his starts often produce the minimum requirement of a quality start (six innings, three runs).
That leaves one spot open for the playoff rotation. So who gets it? Let’s eliminate Moseley, who is lacking both in stuff and postseason experience. Similarly, I don’t want to see Vazquez anywhere near a mound at the beginning of a postseason game. His diminished fastball, along with his glaring inability to compensate for it, make him qualified for nothing more than long man out of the bullpen.
That leaves us with Burnett and Nova. If Burnett can show improvement in his last four starts, I’d be willing to give him the nod. He pitched well in half of his postseason starts last year and still has the firepower to shut down an opponent for seven innings. If Burnett doesn’t improve, then I’d lean toward Nova. Unlike Burnett, Nova has the element of surprise working for him. The Yankees’ potential first round opponents, the Twins and Rangers, don’t have much of a book against Nova. The Rangers have never seen Nova, while the Twins faced him for the grand total of one inning back in May. Working against these lineups for essentially the first time, Nova could have a decided advantage, especially for one or two turns through the batting order…
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