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True Enough

Over at SI.com, Tim Marchman looks at where the Giants rank among the surprise champions of the wild card era:

The baseball commentariat didn’t like the San Francisco Giants’ odds going into this year. Nor did it like them going into the stretch run, as they were behind the similar, but seemingly more talented, San Diego Padres in the NL West. Nor did it like them much going into the Division Series, the Championship Series or the World Series. Which surely makes the wins all the sweeter, and the triumph all the more deserved.

Just how much of a surprise is the Giants’ first championship since moving to San Francisco? Putting a number on this isn’t actually as hard as one might think. There are three factors that make a team a surprise, or none at all: The actual strength of the team, its star power and its position going into the stretch run. A fundamentally mediocre team with few stars and a low payroll that enters the late season in a tight race will, if it wins the Series, stun everyone. A terrific team with lots of pricey veterans that leads the race all year will not.

3 comments

1 Mattpat11   ~  Nov 4, 2010 11:43 am

Did people really think the Padres were more talented than the Giants?

2 NoamSane   ~  Nov 4, 2010 10:45 pm

[1] I don't think so.
But SD held first place for so long and was finding a way to win consistently, so I think by August people got used to the idea that they were the class of the NL West. I remember reading at least two writers around mid to late August (Neyer, Verducci maybe? don't remember really) that were stating as fact that no-one was catching the Padres.

3 The Mick536   ~  Nov 5, 2010 11:57 am

Time for the Yankees to realize this message.

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