I hope Boston got all the home run hitting out their system last night.

I'll be tracking the Win Expectancy, so the rest of you can relax and enjoy the game.
We're up to 58%...

Well that's nice. 24 more of that please.

59%

Nice start.

52%

I'm glad Rob made Peavy work, anyway.

At some point, when liar is up with no one on and two out, I hope Nova drills him right in his fat ass.

50%
Shoulda hit 'im.

Hey, Nava vs. Nova.

Nice.

58%

Strikeouts, good.

Peavy seems like a guy who would have picked on glasses-wearing jazz fans in high school..I don't Iike him.

[7] Nah, we leave that to a rookie reliever when the game is well in hand. This no time to mess around.

Hmph.
So it's gonna be one of these. See which pitcher cracks first...

Listening to Ma&Pa Sterling while on the train, first time in ages. John really has a great voice. Suzyn...has a voice.

Cone has called two Sox players "gamers" already. "A real good fit in the clubhouse."

What's a "gamer"? Someone who plays the whole game rather than going home after the 7th inning?

[15] Sounds like she has some Brooklyn in her.

(16) Ideally, white guy with a beard.

[16] Well, remember last year? I think some of them might have sneaked out during the stretch.

(17) D'oh!! (16 years away..surely I've lost it by now??)

[17] Yes, and some Brookline, too.
I like her voice. Well, not 'like'. Enjoy listening to.

[13] If you think a rookie reliever is going to pitch in this series with a game well in hand you are more optimistic than I am. : ) Nova was the guy who buzzed Pyouk twice a few years back I believe.

(21) She sounds like Mrs.Shaprio, my high school Spanish teacher. Imagine Suzyn saying ''Mi llamo Señora Waldmyn'...

Nova's pitch count...no me gusta...

Time to bear down, kiddo.

Hmm, it's a situation . . .

40% Win Expectancy now. (With two on and nobody out.)

Crap

Hoooooooooooo boy.

Vaya, amigo, let's go now. Hold it tight.

It's not the playoffs, yet, Ivan. FOR FUCK"S SAKE!

[19] That's just because Popeye's wouldn't deliver.

Shoot.
I still had hopes he was going to contain.

Well, maybe the out was worth it.

[31] Also: moonlight golf.

I'm off to a late night back to school dinner with the wife. Go Yankees!

Okay.

So... is this Papi Plunking Time?

Interesting!

So, they aren't going to hit him, then. Obviously.

Well, good for Joe, that boosts my estimation of him.

Ugh.
This is why IBBs are bad (although better than plunking).

[21] Yeah, she grew up in Mass. I don't detect any of that at all. I suppose I'm not familiar with the suburban Mass accents.

It,s just a premanition, but I don't think Nova has a complete game tonight.

Whew.
Coulda been woise.

But he's thrown 80 pitches. We might see Hughes...

Win Expectancy: 33%

A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single.

Ichigo!

Small ball.

Come on Cap'n!

Brett's stolen base added 8% win probability. Seems like an anomaly. I don't see how that could be true.

Up to you Robbie

Dang, loaded for Rob.
Give it a ride, Robinson!

Hee-Hee. This is fun!

Yeah, that Win Prob was anomalous: it went down when Jeter walked!

And he comes through!

And it just went waaaaaay up!

Robbie is The MAN.

[54] He's the best. I'm so worried he's going to walk (fly) to the Dodgers in the off season.

Thanks Kay for the jinx.

Damn.

They were getting a lot of fly balls. Game had a homer feel to it.

I figure Nova has one more inning. Maybe he can start the sixth, but I can't see him finishing it.

If they get 5IP and 3ER from Nova that's good enough. Yeoman's effort!

[55] No way. Jay-Z won't allow it. ;>)

Still 44%...

48%

Excellent job, Lyle!

Believe it or not, Win Expectancy has the Yankees as favorites here, down a run!

Come on, Ichiro, ratify it.

Ichiro swings at a lot of bad pitches.

[64] weird. I'd rather have the lead than the potential.

Sigh. See?

Well that deflated fast.
Damn.

[66] It did seem odd. But, I guess I'd rather have the Win Probability. Hard to feel comfortable with it, but it must be true.

Stewart really kills this lineup.

I think I better stop watching now.

Oh well.

[69] This lineup kills this lineup.

Football's on.

The Red Sox keep hitting the ball over the fence. What is that?

Why is Claiborne pitching in one of the most important games of the season?

[73] And the NFL had to move the game because baseball is more awesomer. Wait, there's a weather delay in football?

[75] Dude had a 2.74 ERA coming in, and it's only the fifth inning. Whom would you have gone to?

[75] [77] Also, I'm not sure this is actually one of the most important games of the season...

[78] Well, you know *my* view on more and less important games...

[76] Yeah, I dunno. It's just raining, right?

[79] Games are more important when you're head-to-head against a team you're fighting for a playoff spot (because you get two half-games for the price of one Win and lose two for a L).

This is not one of those...

well, this is a giant load o' shit.

[82] Isn't it?

Happy New Year!

Matchups.

That's the last straw. Football time for me.

[81] But you don't know what team/s you will be battling head-to-head for a playoff spot until well into the season, yet the games played earlier in the season contributed to the context in which one is battling for the playoffs. Or looked at from another perspective, if it turns put that Team A and Team C are battling for a layoff spot, instead Teams A and B (which the pundits predicted at the beginning of the season), then suddenly the games A and C already played earlier in the year become "more important." The whole "more important games" argument strikes me as almost inherently ex post facto.

Anyway, I'm still confused by this play where the opposing team hits the ball over the fence.

fuck boston.

Blerg

Clairborne comes in and gives up a homer, single, single...and you leave him in to give up a walk and another single?

[85] You are overthinking this. Yanks cannot afford any losses now, and they had just got to Peavy. Reliever stats are irrelevant, you don't let a pitcher like that face these guys!

[80] Threat of lightning. Of course, they didn't move the fans out of the stands.

[88] OK, then whom do you bring in at that juncture? Joba? Robertson? Rivera?

[85] Fair point, but I think that just shows that much of the time we don't know whether the game in question is particularly important. Which is just as true in life as in baseball, by the way!

Or, you could say the importance of a game is information-relative. I like that better. Since we have a whole lot more information now than we had in April, there will be lots more 'less important' and 'more important' games in September than in April.

So it's a lot like a homer in a tie game in the eighth inning being more important than a homer in the top of the first.

[90] You ablsolutely bring in Robertson to face their best hitters and if it's 1-2-3 you let him go two innings. Time to stop fucking around, you don't lose games in September with the bottom of your bullpen. This is really not so complicated..

[89] Yeah, I figured it out.
I do think the players are in greater danger than the fans in a lightning storm, actually.

Also, they're worth more. Like a late-inning homer or a win in September.

[91] Since we have a whole lot more information now than we had in April, there will be lots more 'less important' and 'more important' games in September than in April.

Or maybe better, we are in a better position to determine which games are important or not. That includes looking retrospectively ("wow, we can see now that the early season sweep of Team A by Team B was a critical factor in the pennant race").

As usual, you make the discussion interesting.

[92] But you know, in real life, that the games in September are worth exactly the same as the April ones. So, bring in Robertson in the highest leverage situations, I guess. I don't think starting the fifth in a two run game is high-leverage... but maybe it is, I dunno.

[95] Sure, but the game now is VERY LIKELY lost because of those 3 runs allowed. Even if you bring in Clairborne you don't let him stay in that long. Rare bad bullpen use by JoeyJoeJoe.

[92] Well, you know that I agree with you in general, but whether it's September or April, I would use my bullpen in a fundamentally different way than is the current orthodox praxis. However, you and I both know that no manager is going to use the EIGHTH INNING GUY in the fourth or fifth inning. Moreover, at this point, Claiborne is *not* the bottom of the bullpen!

[93] Your last point is the truest. And even there the players are expendable. I wish the former NFL players hadn't settled, would have loved to see who knew what when about concussions.

[96] Perhaps a more interesting question: should Girardi have tried to stick with Nova rather than go to a middle reliever (assuming he would never use RobertsonRivera that early)?

[99] I think yes. But it would have been very, very difficult to do.

The obvious choice was Hughes, actually. But, Red Sox, homers, Yankee Stadium, Phil Hughes. Cognitive dissonance.

[98] Indeed. But some of those guys really, really needed the money, and they couldn't afford to roll the dice on a jury verdict.

[97] Jonah Keri had a great podcast interview with ex-manager Manny Acta about this, especially how hard it is to get the BP guys to be flexibile about roles. I wonder why a manager doesn't just say in Spring Traniing 'Be ready to pitch anytime I need you'.

[99] Yes, aside from Mariano, he's been our best pitcher of late.

[97] Partly that's because giving up a run or two in the fifth inning isn't as bad as giving up two in the ninth. You've got more innings to get those runs back.

Low strike

[102] It would take a ballsy manager at least, and in addition it may take a firm organizational approach. And it better work, because if the strategy failed early, the manager (and the strategy) would be pilloried. Remember back some years when the red Sox went with the "closer by committee"? That lasted all of about two blown saves...

OK. Now it's time to bean Big Crappy.

[102] I think it's one of those things we should just admit we don't know. It's possible that relief pitching is so psychological that it's very costly to plug them in just any time. It's also possible that it's all bullshit. No idea, and no idea how to investigate it.

[108] Acta was so interesting. He is very 'SABRE' aware but also said that stats guys don't get it about reliever mentality and that closing 'can' be a different thing all together.

[107] His ass is big enough to absorb it, that's for sure.

[108] I imagine it's a little of both. After all, in the old days relievers---especially the "swing man"---were a lot more flexible. Maybe the development of more fixed roles has provided beneficial psychological security for some relievers,while for others the reliance on roles has undermined their capacity for flexibility. Who knows?

Got an early morning, night all.

[109] His ass is big enough to absorb it.

Plus the scar tissue from all those injections...

[112] Hey now, those 'vitamins' are LEGAL in the DR ya know..I heard that from Cousin Yuri.

Hm. I was watching football, but it looks like the game is a few inches away from being interesting again...

Can we at least make them use Uehara?

[114] 'watching footbal'..? RI..how could you??

[115] I tolerate all religions.

Hey, Soriano beats the shift!

God, Dennis Eckersly is such an idiot. Here's his reaction:

"That's what can happen when you overshift. He puts the ball on the right side and there's just nobody there!"

No kidding, genius.

Curtis, baby!

Now it's interesting.

This is dope.
I walked away for a few minutes to do some chores, came back and they were chasing Peavy.

[116] Surely we must have limits to our tolerance..

A-Rod tater please!

[120] Don't be greedy. We'll take a single. Hell, I'll take a sac fly...

Yeah. Good pitch.

Damn.

All up to Lyle!

holy fuck.

what an assfuck.

i would've taken a run scoring ground out...

[117] Terrible pitch to make---low and away---while employing the extreme shift.

[125] Are you listening to Eck and Orsillo?

YES!!!!!!!

Lyle OVERbay!

If the Yanks sneak into the playoffs, can they vote a playoff share to Dempster?

Hm. How about that. And now Robertson and Rivera are lined up for the 8th and 9th. Joe Girardi CHESSMASTER™ is so many moves ahead of us.

Oooh, this is getting lovely. Friend of mine who's a trash-talking Sawx fan was saying last night about how much she was going to enjoy going to tonight's game, while her nice-guy Yankee-fan husband just smiled quietly.

Left the house at 2-0. Looks like I missed some action. Holy fuck!

[126] Yankees TV broadcast, so Kay-Cone-Singleton. In fact, Cone and Singleton sid more or less the same dumb thing that Eck said. But it struck me as the wrong pitch for the defence employed.

Lael!!!

L'shana Tova

Let's hope David Robertson pitches better tonight than he did last night. And...there'll be no Mo tonight, right?

[129] Yeah, just what I was thinking. I can imagine him saying in the post-game presser:

"Well, you wanna have Preston in there because if there's a late-inning six-run rally, you know, you wanna be able to go to Robbie. I thought he did okay, gave up a couple o' runs, but he got some outs... what's that? Oh, he didn't get any outs, but he threw a couple of strikes, and he kept us close. Kind of close."

[129] I accept my come-uppance! Now let's up they can hold them..

[133] He'll go to Mo, or else he wouldn't use Robertson in the 8th. Girardi is playing more desperate these days.

Siddown, Ells!

Hammer time. Siddown Snozzberry you shit!

[136] Agree. I read speculation that Mo would get the day off, because of the 4-outs. But I don't think so.

If (knock on wood) Ortiz leads off the ninth, you could start with Boone.
Nah.

Oh, I get it: he'll pitch to Ortiz this inning if necessary. Boone will, I mean.

Shane YOU ARE JUST A NAIL.

[139] Four outs but fortunately only 15 pitches. [140] Would Girardi consider going to Logan in the 9th v. Ortiz, who hits Mo fairly well, then go to Mo for the last two outs?

THE ALABAMA HAMMA, BABY!

Thanks captain. Thanks david. Nice inning. Now some GEICO for.... Mo?

[142] Ha, I read [140] too quickly...you asked the same question, only faster than me! I would actually consider starting with Logan, but I guess I'm a heretic.

[142] No, because he wants Mo to start the inning, not come in with someone on base. I'm pretty sure. It's one of those reliever psychology things.

Yep, it's Mo.

[146] Yep. It's the "closer" v. "fireman" role.

Breslow for Rosh Hashanah. Good call. Lavarnway also playing well.

Let's go mo

it's Mo time!!!

wish i were able to see this, though i'd prolly be freaking out...

[149] a co-worker buddy of mine is a half hebrew. (wrong half)

yesterday at work, i wished him a happy and healthy...

6 months! ; )

Whew.
Easy peasy, Lyle!

I'm not sure if that was a bad omen for whats to come this inning or a lucky break that we got through Big Fatty

Getting past Ortiz.... priceless

That was good.

Napoli looks like Erick Rowan

[158] Is Erick Rowan Amish?

Oh, front door cutter JUST missed!

Ugh.

[159] i saw in a previous game thread you mentioned Mose Schrute.

i loved that.

Dammit.

Goddammit!

That was no good.

Well, that was an unfortunate sequence.

That just got worse.

bollocks.

SOFUCKINGLAME!!!!!!@#$@#$@!$@$@$!#@$

Had a feeling the game wasn't gonna end like that

Oh mutherfucker. Goddam it.

DAMN IT!! What happened to get the runner to 3B? I missed it.

unfucking believable.

FUCK!!!

why'd he throw the fucking ball?!?!?!?

: /

Nail biter

Another heretical thought: Girardi should think about pulling Mo soon, as this is his third straight appearance and his pitch count is creeping up tonight.

The Red Sox put in a pinch runner in a one run game and he didn't just stand on first and wait for the game to end.

Clearly they don't know how baseball works.

He doesn't look great, but he was good enough to get the S.
Stinking throw to second on the SB.

Another blown save. Sigh.

[177] Yep. And early in the game they had that crazy hit-the-ball-over-the-fence play, which scored a couple of runs. The Yankees could learn a thing or two.

[172] He stole second and the throw went into the outfield. Good throw would have had him.

[178] He would have scored from second.

I'm poison. I got out for a run, figuring we lost. I come back shocked, surprised, elated, to see what's transpired. I get back in to the game and Mo blows a save. I shoulda left the TV off.

Sorry folks.

[178] At the risk of invoking Michael Kay's favorite fallacy, he probably scores from 2B on the subsequent base hit, no?

Well, maybe Robbie picks up Mo with a win. One swing, baby.

[180] I dunno, the main problem does not appear to be run-production. It's more on the run-prevention side that the Yankees are struggling.

Hughes and Chamberlain have to be lurking, so we need to win it here.

[182] [184] Yes, probably, but a good throw would have nailed him at second.

[187] On cue, the camera cuts to Joba warming.

[187] I predict Hughes steps up if we don't score, actually.

But, Soriano is on...

Send Soriano?

[189] Ooooh. NESN didn't show that. Probably didn't want to get the fans too excited.

[191] Let him decide. He's done this once or twice.

sori - steal 2nd and take 3rd on the throwing error.

Yeah, he went.

Heh.
That's the ticket!

[194] Almost...

Er, that'll do.

sori!

steal 3rd ; )

That wasn't a balk?
Anyway.