At least the Yanks made them earn it. Okay, that’s the good spin. Of course, I’ve been mulling over the various failures–AJ Burnett, an unfortunate fastball right down the pipe to Vlad Guerrero, Nick Swisher’s final at bat, Joe Girardi’s drive to become tighter than Gene Mauch’s ass–but in a game the Angels had to win, the Yanks didn’t roll over.
Today is one of those challenging days…is the glass half-full or half-empty? Did the Yankees blow their chance or will they pick themselves off the mat and roll come Saturday night–if the weather holds up, that is. (I believe they will come out strong in Game Six.) Got too much time on our hands, either way.
Fug it, Dude, let’s go bowling.
Oh, I got the day off from work. But I live on the seventh floor of my building and they are doing work on the roof. So guess who was up early?
Oy and veh. Fug it, I’m going to the movies:
dont wanna jinx your movie going experience, but something tells me when you arrive at the theater the only option will be a matinee double feature: Angels In The Outfield and Fever Pitch.
doh!
go to lunch instead, Alex! go to lunch!
That Manhattan clip would be great even without Woody's voice-over. Inspired, I played "Rhapsody In Blue" for Amelia, which was then followed alphabetically on my iPod by Monk's "Rhythm-A-Ning." Top-notch two-fer.
Of course, then came "Rhythm of the Night" by DeBarge . . . we're now on Stevie's treacly "Ribbon In The Sky" . . . oop, make that Gwen Stefani's "Rich Girl."
I know everyone's down on Freddy Guzman, but I love that he's on the LCS roster. He gives me hope that Girardi or Cashman might ring me up and put ME on the World Series roster. After all, even at age 39 I'm more than capable of sitting on the bench for eight innings before pinch running for the best and hottest player on the planet even though it's the ninth inning of a game my team is hoping to send into extra innings. Then I could easily eschew the stolen base and choose to stand on first base instead, waiting for something to happen.
To paraphrase John Fogerty, "Put me in, Joe! I'm ready to play!" (Though perhaps not center field.)
I just couldn't figure that move. It's not like Rodriguez is slow or a bad baserunner, and if Guzman was in there to steal a base he telegraphed the move to the point that it wasn't worth the risk with one out remaining in the game. Can you imagine if Guzman had been thrown out in that situation? Running for Matsui with a competent hitter in Gardner I get, but not the Rodriguez/Guzman move. But I'm preaching to the choir here.
If I were cynical, I might suggest that Guzman has been used---the few and odd times that he has been employed---simply to justify his inclusion on the roster.
I'm not quite [5] that cynical, but as I pointed out in the earlier thread, Guzman is just sitting there, tempting Girardi to use him, which might amount to the same thing.
I posted this question in the previous thread, if the game is postponed on Saturday due to rain, do you start CC on Sunday for Game 6? I think you have to
As I guessed, Girardi explained leaving AJ in by saying 'only at 80 pitches, if he'd been at 105 maybe a different story'. Didn't see a comment on pinchrunning but I stand by what I said on an earlier thread: baffling, but didn't matter. I also agree with whomever it was who said the Aybar at-bat was probably the game, from 0-2 to a walk. But Hughes STILL has to get at least one of those two batters who hit.
Gardy will not start against Saunders. Thinking about it, and it won't happen.
Big rainstorm forecast for tomorrow. The Sunday Game 6 starter decision may well be on the table. As I think about it more, maybe you do have to go CC on normal rest.
Girardi seems to be managing like this is the final exam in "Managing 101".
I think he's playing right into the Angels' hands ...
At least when Torre was around, Zim was there to bounce an idea off of.
[7] Hmmmm, tough one.
Well, we need to win one of those two games, doesn't really matter which. So maybe the way to think about it is to look ahead to the WS.
Now, if you let Andy pitch and he wins, that's the perfect set-up for the Series. If Andy loses and CC has to go on Monday, that's the worst case because then CC can't go until Game Three. If CC does pitch on Sunday, then I guess he could go again Thursday on short rest.
It's a close call, but I'd say let Andy take the ball for Game Six on Sunday if Saturday is rained out.
Couldn't agree more with Diane. I think Girardi is making some moves defensively instead of going after the Angels. Even though the move to pinch run for A-Rod didn't cost the Yanks it still made no sense. Even best case, the Yanks were still going to have to come out in the bottom of the 9th defensively.
Thanks all, here's hoping Game 6 puts an end to this thing.
Monkeypants, if you're reading, check out Rosenheck's argument that Joe Saunders is the anti-Mitre: a consistently luck pitcher. All-Star, big pile of wins, but he just isn't a good pitcher.
[12] Sweet, the Anti-Mitre™. God read.
[13] Or good read.
I have an excuse today---I'm typing while lying on my side, rather sick and home from work.
8 year olds dude
Think of a man in a burning house. We'll call him Joe Girardi. Joe scrambles into the kitchen of his house on fire, and starts rummaging through the cabinets. For what? We don't know, but he's throwing pots and pans left and right. Then, he finds his fire extinguisher, but he tosses that aside too. The flames rage higher, but Joe won't stop the rummaging through cabinets, and the tossing of appliances, until he finds his blender. "A ha!" he cries "Found it!" Then, he opens the fridge and pulls out a head of lettuce. "This will do! Now, where's my bowlling ball?"
Suddenly, the seat of Joe's pants burst into flames!
"Ahh!" he screams.
Just then, two heroic firemen, we'll call them Alex Rodriguez and Mariano Rivera, burst into the kitchen (lotta bursting going on here) and throw two buckets of water on Joe's burning pants.
Joe yells at his rescuers "What the hell are you doing?!"
Firemen Rodriguez and Rivera are perplexed. "We're trying to save you, Joe, your kitchen's on fire."
"Yeah, we do this all the time. Now, let's get outta here before the place explodes!"
Joe crosses his arms, and says sternly "I'm not going anywhere until Firemen Guzman and Marte get here."
Firemen Rodriguez and Rivera plead "But why, Joe, why won't you come with us?"
Joe shoves the head of lettuce into the blender and says, "Because they need the work!"
[16] Lay off my man Marte, Sliced. He got it done.
[9] Somehow, my life feels strangely more complete now that I know that The Cardigans, of all bands, covered Iron Man. YouTube is something else - thanks, Diane!
[4] The only possible rational I was able to come up with, regarding Guzman pinch running for Alex, was this:
"1246. Shaun P.
October 22nd, 2009 at 11:49 pm
Oh, and I can think of one reason that Guzman is a better runner than A-Rod – A-Rod had hip surgery a few months ago, Guzman didn’t. All Girardi needs is A-Rod, killing himself to try to score that tying run, getting hurt because he shifted into 5 gear, or sliding into home plate. AFAIC, there was absolutely no reason NOT to run for A-Rod, steal or no."
Now maybe that's Girardi being way too cautious, or maybe I'm fishing in an empty pond - but I talked myself into it last night, and I could still buy it today.
[17] Sorry, RI., I should have noted: all characters appearing in [16] are fictitious. Any resemblance to real relief pitchers, effective or otherwise, is purely coincidental.
Cliff - I mentioned this last thread. Have you ever seen a runner who started at 1st base, get throw out at the plate on an extra base hit? Yes? Well, if that runner were 2 or 3 steps faster, he would have been safe... yes? That's the difference between ARod and Guzman.
How about a pitch in the dirt that bounces 10' away from the catcher? Ever seen a guy start to go for another base, then think better of it and not run? In that case, maybe ARod doesn't run and maybe Guzman does.
Ever see ARod want to score on a close play and have a collision at the plate (like 5 days ago)?
How about the next batter hitting a single and the increased odds of going to 3rd, instead of 2nd? How about beating the throw to 2nd on an attempted force out? Does a really speedy runner sometimes put pressure on the D and force an error? Taking an extra base on an overthrow? There are a number of possible 'esoteric' situations where a little extra speed makes a difference.
Remember, ARod is a great baserunner... as is Jeter. But not because they are very fast, as much as they are smart, and read the pitcher and situation well. Guzman ain't a great baserunner, but he is very fast (I believe faster then Gardy),
I think the odds of putting Guzman in and having him score (when ARod wouldn't have) might be like 1 in 20? 1 in 50? 1 in 100? Whatever they are, the Yanks were one out from Game Over anyway. And if the game did get tied up, ARod was 7 batters away from his next AB. I think it was a longshot, but any down side that might have happened (ARod missing an AB) would mean that we tied the game.
Girardi was trying to do SOMETHING to increase the odds of tying the game. 2 out, man on first. Do you have a suggestion for something that could have been to increase the odds of tying the game?
I don't think it was a great move.
I don't think it was a mistake.
I think it was a longshot Girardi took because he had few alternatives.
[4] Cliff, your point about the telegraphed steal is well taken, but it also kind of underlines the folly of having Guzman on the roster. (Apologies to the choir, or, in reference to [16], apologies for throwing gasoline on the kitchen fire.) If you're going to have Herb Score on your roster, doesn't he HAVE to steal when he gets in? And yes, [6] maybe Guzman's very presence is like an open bag of potato chips on the kitchen counter, tempting Joe to use him regardless of whether or not it makes sense, but if he had been given the steal signal and been thrown out to end the game, at least that would've made sense. I still wouldn't have like the move, but at least there would be some type of strategy. A-Rod couldn't have scored from first on a double? From second on a single? The move seemed half-assed. Like Girardi had the stones to pull A-Rod, but not to follow through and send Guzman. Either you're in, or you're out. Or, in Girardi's case, out of it.
[20] I think it was a longshot Girardi took because he had few alternatives.
You mean like someone on the bench who can hit?
Thank goodness that the Guzman move didn't come back to bite the Yankees in the ass. That would have been far more painful than the loss we had. It certainly could have happened though - what a bizarre move. I didn't think he would or should steal but as others have noted A Rod is the tying run. By pinch-running for him you are hoping to increase your chances of playing extra innings by taking out your best weapon for those extra innings.
A smaller bit of trivia about that move is why PR Guzman for Rodriguez and not Gardner? I mean if you really want speed on the bases at all costs, shouldn't you put the fastest guy in? And then Girardi PRs Gardner for Matsui. I know this is a minor point on top of a minor point, but it just makes me wonder what the hell Girardi is up to at times.
[8][10] this thought process reminded me of '04. if I recall correctly (and I'm pretty sure '04 was only a nightmare and the season was suspended), the yanks could go with Moose on Game 4 with full rest, due to some rain delays, and instead decided to go with Duque and have Moose for Game 5.
In both games, the yanks had the lead, but Moose pitched better than duque.
I thought at the time that it was the wrong decision and I think if the game gets postponed, the yanks would have to go with CC and worry about the WS when they get there
Remember when Pettitte was dealing in Minnesota and had 80 something pitches and Girardi took him out of the game?
Oh yeah and then there was that time when Burnett was dancing through the raindrops, had given up 4 runs , had 80 something pitches and Girardi left him in the game.
: o
[22] Wasn't either Posada or Matsui up? Wanna PH JHJr for either of them?
[26] Matsui was up. So MP, you would have done what?
[20] while i would have kept arod in, i agree with you 100%. it's sort of like bringing your closer in in the 7th inning (or into a tie game away)- you forfeit your best pitcher for later in the game so that you have a better chance to get later into the game. girardi had to tie the game to get to the next inning. if guzman gives him a better chance, even without stealing, then it's not irrational. i don't think it outweighs arod's bat so i wouldn't have made the move, but i don't think we should pretend that it was totally without reason.
[25] burnett had been getting better throughout the game. pettitte had not.
if tomorrow's game is rained out, you still HAVE to go to pettitte on sunday. you still have cc backing him up if they lose, but if they win you have cc for 3 starts in the world series. it's a no brainer.
Heh!
http://www.theonion.com/content/news_briefs/joba_chamberlain_gets
[27] To be honest, I missed the entire game, so I don't know the exact tactical situation. From looking at Gameday, it was two outs, no one and A-Rod was intentionally walked.
Now normally I agree that in such a dire situation, you need to do everything possible to score the tying run and extend the game. In this case however, you already have a fine base runner with speed---who happens to be your best player and hottest hitter and best defensive 3B---on 1B. The advantage of PR for him strike me as completely marginal. You have a good hitter coming up after him, so one could make the case that Guzman was put in to steal 2B in order to score on a single. But even then, you are playing for a tie and taking your best player out of the lineup to do so...and burning two bench players in the process (since Hairston will have to go in at 3B). And the fact that Guzman did not try to steal (apparently) undermines that argument anyway.
So in the end, you have replaced your best player on offense and on defense at his position, and who is a very good baserunner, entirely to increase ever-so-marginally the chance of scoring on a ball in the gap that would score Guzman but not A-Rod.
That strikes me as very, very silly.
So what would I have done? Leave A-Rod in the game and let Matsui bat. I might have PR for Matsui, only to avoid a forseout at 2B, but I'm sure I would even have done that. At least not until the bases were loaded--then I would have PR for Matsui so he could have scored from 2B on a single.
But ultimately, I would not have created a bench entirely composed of PRs, BUCs and an all-purpose fielder, none of whom can hit at all. It is the initial roster construction---deeply flawed, as many have been pointing out since day 1---that is driving and facilitating the goofy late-game tactics.
[6] I’m not quite [5] that cynical, but as I pointed out in the earlier thread, Guzman is just sitting there, tempting Girardi to use him, which might amount to the same thing.
Variation on a theme---my brother believes that Girardi feels compelled to make moves, do *something*, to "justify his paycheck" (i.e. to do *something* because he's the manager). I'm not sure I believe it...but I'm not sure that I don't.
[31] I don't think it's to justify his paycheck, I just think he really believes fucking around all the time pays off. There's probably ego in there too, so he can be considered a baseball managing genius. I really despise that whole concept.
[25] burnett had been getting better throughout the game. pettitte had not.
If by better, you mean, hadn't given up more runs, then yes. But he only had 3 ks, which meant his stuff wasn't overpowering and he'd just sat on his ass for 30 minutes while the Yankees hit in the top of the 7th.
Perfect time to get him out.
[30] I think you have all the particulars down.
At the risk of being dogmatic, I think Girardi did have a reason for using Guzman (to score on a "less than deep double" on which maybe Arod has to stop at 3rd), but it was such a low probability play that it really does make little sense. The chances of Arod coming up again in the game strikes me as much greater than their being a hit on which only Guzman could have scored.
Similarly, I am sure Girardi really believed that AJ would get the first two batters and then Marte would get the lefties. That logic is not as awful as I may have thought last night, but I still think it was a signicantly poorer option than handing the ball to Hughes and then Mo.
I have been Girardi's biggest critic all season, so I am the least objective, but I do truly believe that all things being equal, the Yankees are already advancing with a more competent manager. Maybe he isn't as bad as I make him out to be, but if he is standing in the way, why should it matter the degree to which he is a problem?
[33] The time off between innings was a factor, but what I also think needed to be taken into account is the change in mindset that comes from pitching when you are down 4-0 to up 6-4. Sometimes, when a pitcher falls behind early in a game, he almost takes a devil may care approach, and by doing so increases his effectiveness. Then, when his team comes back to take the lead, he tightens up a bit, and returns to a tentative approach. That is exactly what I expected from AJ, based on watching him all season. Now, I know that's not a scientific analysis, so I can't really fault Girardi for not feeling it too, but then again, a manager's job is to have a feel for his players and the game, and I am not sure Girardi has either (i.e., how he continues to use Gardner as a PR, despite his tentative approach).
[25] Burnett was all over the place. That's why I said dancing through the raindrops. I've seen Burnett recover and dominate but last night wasn't that. Even at his best Burnett misses his spots, but this was ridiculous. 5 clean innings after a 4 run first, you've taken the lead - like I've said don't look a gift horse in the mouth, get him the **** outta there.
[36] Especially since Posada was in at catcher. By Girardi's own logic (with which I disagree, but I digress), Burnett can't pitch to Posada so he was already playing with fire.
"The chances of Arod coming up again in the game strikes me as much greater than their being a hit on which only Guzman could have scored."
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
While that may be true, ARod does NOT come up unless we tie the game. We are agreed on that, yes? So, increasing the odds of tying the game, even marginally, is not that bad an idea. Don't you wish we could have pissed and moaned when ARod's spot came up again, because it would have meant that the game was still going on?
And here's a situation where it comes into play.
A line drive base hit down the first base line, which is a type of hit Matsui has a lot of. In that instance, Guzman vs. ARod may be the difference between scoring or not.
While anger is often a reaction to disappointment, the two are different emotions. I am VERY disappointed we lost (although I still believe we play the WS), but I am not angry. Not at Girardi. Not at AJ. Not at Phil. Not at Swisher. I'm disappointed, but probably not as disappointed as they are.
[38] While that may be true, ARod does NOT come up unless we tie the game. We are agreed on that, yes? So, increasing the odds of tying the game, even marginally, is not that bad an idea.
I'm not sure this argument makes sense, given what William was arguing. William assumes that there is already a measurable chance that the Yankees will tie the game, such that odds of A-Rod batting again are HIGHER than the odds that Guzman increased the chance of a tie. And since not having A-Rod in the game to hit (and to play defense, i would add), you subsequently lower the chance of winning.
So, if we accept William's premise, even granting that PR Guzman increases the chance of the runner scoring, it ultimately lowers the chance of winning the game!
[39] Hey, I did that whole italics thing backwards!
[38] More seriously, OYF, what would you do in the following hypothetical:
The exact same situation, only Posada is on 1B and you do not have another catcher (you started the game with Molina). He is a much, much slower runner than A-Rod, so PR for him would perhaps even dramatically increase the odds of scoring and extending the game. But you would have no catcher (so Hairston would have to go in, since he's the emergency catcher).
Would you PR in that situation?
[37] Forgot that! Yes! Absolutely, one more reason, if that whole dynamic is a factor in Molina playing at all.
I'm going to dissent very slightly (from myself too!) and say one reason to pinch run for A Rod without actually stealing, is to throw a pitcher off because of the fear of a steal - which may well have happened. Walk, hit batter... three balls to Swish. I still say it is silly + wrong, but I won't say it is as inconceivable (tm) as I did this morning.
I also, william, hold to the idea that the bullpen (read: Hughes) made their manager look bad, too, and he doesn't need all that much help in doing that! I'd still have pulled AJ and gone for 4 non-Mo outs from a rested pen, but what do I know?
One subtext to all of this ... I think Girardi is managing to a degree with a sabrmetrics mindset, and many of us here loathe the old guard (Joe Morgan!) who deride this in general.
[36] while i agree he was all over the place early on, and even called on him to be lifted in the 1st inning and again after the 3rd, i definitely think he had settled down by the 6th, which was his best inning. and hughes has been shaky lately.
[33] do we have stats that show that pitchers are less effective after a long half inning or is that just myth?
[35] do we have stats that show that burnett is less effective with a 2 run lead than with a 4-0 deficit or is that just bullshit?
also, we should all hope that tomorrow's game is not rained out. if we win with pettitte, then our rotation should be set for the world series: cc for games 1, 4 and 7; pettitte for games 2 and 6; burnett for game 3; gaudin for game 5. obviously that would be flexible depending on how the series goes, but i definitely think that's the way to set it. not only do i trust pettitte more than burnett, but the phillies' 2 best (by far) hitters are both lefty. i don't really buy into the home/road splits for pettitte, and i'd prefer to never see him bat. plus, if burnett pitches in philadelphia, there's no chance molina catches him.
I'm not sure that losing Arod's bat with the Guzman substitution was that big of a deal, since Scosia had been intentionally walking him anyway. I'm sure he would have walked him again if he came up later in extra innings.
While I questioned some of Girardi's moves during the game (I would have started with Hughes or Joba in the 7th and went to Mo for the 8th and 9th), as others have said, the blame for the loss is easily placed on AJ throwing batting practice in the 1st and Phil not throwing the curveball to Vlad.
[43] A huge truth, that last comment. Rainout or a Game 7 mess us up badly. Of course losing both kills us all for the whole winter. Verducci depresses me because we are agreeing (over at si.com) ... basically says 4 outs left to Mariano and Girardi started the process with AJ. Also, Aybar had walked THREE times all season from an 0-2 count.
No one has answered my query about Po popping up on the pitch Vlad hit. Was it supposed to be way high, or was it a feint to make him lay off, then sneak a fastball inside on him? Feinting Vlad is just ... dumb. He doesn't know from 'lay off'. If it was meant to be up a lot, Hughes blew it even worse.
[44] I’m sure he would have walked him again if he came up later in extra innings.
Would he have walked Hairston, or Guzman? Would they have gotten on base?
If Scoscia was guaranteed to walk A-Rod in extra innings, that's all the more reason NOT to remove his bat from the lineup. A free base is a pretty big deal, it seeme to me.
[45] my impression is that hughes missed by about 2 feet, as the only sensible fastball would have been where posada was set up, at vlad's head. and i think that is at least as justifiable as bouncing a curveball with the tying run on 3rd. hughes did not have his best control last night, to say the least.
[43]
[35] do we have stats that show that burnett is less effective with a 2 run lead than with a 4-0 deficit or is that just bullshit?
=============================
Not specifically with or without a lead, but its a start
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=burnea.01&year=Career&t=p#clutc
[48] right, but this is completely inconclusive.
[46] Good points. I just wanted to point out that those who thought Arod's bat was being taken out of the game on the Guzman substitution were probably overstating the possibility of him actually getting to use his bat if the game made into extras...
yay! only 28 hours til game time, or 52 if rain delay
So, am I to understand that Girardi is still worried about his job; to the point that he's officially worried himself silly? cuz, that's what it looks like sometimes...
I'm not worried, tho. I have confidence that Andy and CC (if need be) will hold it down despite the missed opportunities for runs and the tactical question marks that explode in Joe's face at times. One thing to take into consideration is that a random injury or other type of loss of a key player will override numbers almost all the time. We've been about as lucky as we have been stronger than the other teams. So as long as our luck continues to hold up, then we will prevail on the basis of our strength in both ends of the inning.
[21] Ah, Herb Washington. One of Charles O. Finley's experiments - a college record holder as a sprinter - Finley signed him to be a "designated runner". The experiment didn't work because speed doesn't automatically equal baserunning success.
A-Rod never comes out of the game. Period. Final. No need for any more discussion (even thought I know you folks are in bed). Let's be clear. A-ROD NEVER COMES OUT OF THE GAME. NEVER. Clear? Crystal.