I heard a report that an "unnamed source close to Brian Cashman" says they are not going to bid on Bay or Holliday. Grain of salt type news, of course.
On the other hand, the Sox are now a little worried about how Lackey's medical exam turned out. They are allegedly going to ask for an out clause.
Rob Neyer loves the Sox deal for Cameron (surprise surprise..)..what am I missing here? He may still have a great glove but he's a K machine hitting his late 30s...I really don't think the Boston "O" can come close to ours, but the rotations are a push..
If things stay like this the Yanks should win the division by 7-8 games again, easy..
Hey, guys, just wanted to share my kooky dream from last night with you all:
I was at a spring training game and Derek went up to the plate without a bat. Just kind of strode to the plate with a smirk and no bat and proceeded to stand in the box with a big grin pretending to hold a bat.
The pitcher threw two pitches but they were both balls and I realized Derek was trying (successfully) to psyche the pitcher out. I started cracking up: Dude doesn't even have a bat and you still can't even throw strikes!!!
But the next pitch somehow ended up in the outfield, despite the fact that Derek still didn't have a bat. He rounded the bases and kept advancing when, as in little league, the other team botched each attempt to throw him out at each station. He came around to score and we both started laughing and I said to him, "Hey, Derek, amazing how you could hit the ball going up to the plate with nothing but your dick in your hand!" We yucked it up for a bit and that was that.
[1] Source for Sawx worry on lackey please? Thanks for brightening my day!
Re: not bidding on Bay or Holliday, my concern is that it plays right into Boras/JD's hands. I truly hope we don't wind up overpaying (in years) for JD because we let too many other options fall away. Of course it could all be posturing, and maybe we sneak away with Holliday for 5 years and "it's only money" money...
[2] Yeah I think 2011 is going to be an expensive year of Cameron for Boston...
[1] I wouldn't be upset if they made a big signing, but I don't think the Yankees really need one. I would be comfortable entering the season with the offense as currently constructed.
[2] Neyer's analysis lately has pretty much been a knee jerk deference to FanGraphs data. As a result, Cameron looks incredibly valuable relative to Bay because bothers players have extreme defensive metrics. My gut tells me Cameron is overrated and Bay is overpenalized, so the comparison is skewed if you take the numbers at face value. Also, Neyer seems to be ignoring Cameron's age, move to a more difficult lead and real possibility that he will be playing LF, which would seriousl detract from his WAR.
[5] I have an unhealthy obsession with Rob Neyer and his constant Boston love... I mean, his latest blog entry is "Sox spend less, win more"...really?? Did they win more last season by spending less on John Smoltz? Are they spending less by paying Mike Lowell and Alex Gonzales to play for other teams? It's odd...
(and pretty sad that it makes me so angry..maybe I am not listening to enough jazz these days...)
[6] The issue isn't the medical exam, but the parties dickering over language that would give the Sox some relief if a pre-existing condition reoccurs.
[8] The defensive evaluation may be a little off -- all those stats are noisy -- but it's unlikely to be way off. Cameron has been a ++ defender for a long time and the very big sample size should compensate for the noise.
It really depends a lot on whether you think Cameron is going to decline. On the one hand, he hasn't shown signs of decline. On the other hand, he's a 37 year old CF...
Speaking of unreliable stats, Walk Like a Sabermetrician has a nice assortment of statistical assessments of lead off hitters last year. Suffice it to say that there isn't much doubt about who was best.
[11] In 2007, Cameron rated as a very bad defensive player. I know good hitters can have bad offensive seasons, but I just can't bring myself to accept that defense can be as variable as some metrics make it out to be. Again, however, it really seems like Camerson is destined for LF, which throws out all the data.
[13] How do you explain Jeter's defensive stats this year? I disagree, defense can be a variable because of one simple thing: an injury. For an outfielder, their range can be affected if they suffered an injury to their leg and they are playing through it. For an infielder, it can be a leg or hand injury.
Well, I think you're both right [13][14]. Defense can vary a lot from one year to another, but I agree that it's doubtful that it does in the absence of an injury.
I think the reason defensive measures bounce around is that they are noisy, as I mentioned. Most of the variation from year to year is random noise, due to the fact that (e.g.) more of the balls hit into the CF range are easier to catch one year, harder the next. But the sample for Cameron is now very big and I find it hard to believe that he's a lot overrated. There would have to be some kind of systematic distortion of UZR for Cameron in particular.
Oh, and I wouldn't be too surprised if the Sox trade Ellsbury. Could he be part of a package for Adrian Gonzales?
[15] i also think a decent amount is dependent on pitching and somewhat by extension positioning - we need something analogous to fip - like pif (pitching independent fielding)
[3] oh weeping - what would the banter be without you
so what's the problem with lackey and the sox - the ugly quotient just too high
[15] but if ellsbury is traded, or if they move him to lf and let cameron play center, they're presumably taking another hit, unless they get another outfielder. either cameron is not playing cf, and is therefore less valuable than he's been in the past, or he isn't replacing bay. so it makes no sense to compare them using war.
[18} We have Japanese porn now?! You go to the corner to buy one lousy pack of cigarettes, come back a year later and find everything has changed! I just don't know what to believe in anymore Chyll.
BTW, I just read this on MLB.com. does anyone else find the following words chilling:
Commissioner Bud Selig announced on Tuesday that he will chair a new 14-man special committee to analyze ways of improving Major League Baseball on the field.
The committee includes four managers, four former and present general managers, four owner representatives, MLB consultant and Hall of Famer Frank Robinson, plus renowned columnist George Will.
"There will be no sacred cows," Selig said on a conference call. "We're open to talk about anything. I've had this in mind for a long time.
[26] Melky > than Ellsbury (long-term potential that is..)
[24] Like so many things here that are topsy-turvy...pixels required by law, but can show all sorts of other degrading, disgusting and just bizzare things on screen..
I'll stick to my kimono-clad ladies in historical dramas :)
[25] i'm not really sure what the knock on ellsbury is. that he has no power? he still had a .355 obp with 70 steals and was only caught 12 times. is he a terrible fielder?
[30] Based on metrics, he was absolutely awful in CF. His career OPS+ of 96 means he is a below average hitter who may also be a below average fielder at his position. The only thing that vaults him toward "average" is the high SB success rate, but that is often overrated.
[31] i'm sure it is overrated, but 70 steals in his 2nd full season with a career sb success rate of 85% is still pretty damn good, and i don't think that ops+ is all that useful for a player like that. still, it is odd that his defense is so terrible.
[29] All I know is that every change Selig has made to the game I have disliked. But at least these have been mostly on the level of scheduling and organization (including interleague play). Now he's talking about fucking with the game on the field. Kyrie eleison...
[34] He's a big fan or something, and waxed poetically on the Ken Burns documentary (IIRC). There was actually a bit of buzz for him as a long shot for commissioner, before the owners went and appointed someone more neutral...you know, another owner.
[32] Why isn't OPS useful for Ellsbury? It's a rough stat, but getting on base and slugging are important measurements for every player. Stealing bases looks nice, but they don't correlate well to scoring runs.
[38] because slugging percentage is about how many bases you get. that is useful for both driving in runs and getting into scoring position. for a leadoff hitter, getting into scoring position is likely the most important aspect of slugging. so 70 stolen bases adds a lot to ellsbury's value. why don't steals correlate to runs scored? a person is more likely to score the closer he is to home.
[38] To be fair, OPS and OPS+ undervalue OBP/overvalue SLG (some would argue that OBP should be weighted as much as 1.7 times SLG, according to a recent post on RIverAveBlues).
Whatever the formula, a player like Ellsbury looks worse because his slightly higher than average OBP is not weighed more heavily than his slightly lower than average SLG.
In the end, he is probably an average or even above average offensive performer (considering his OBP and SLG), made more valuable by his great SB total/SB rate.
This being said, he's still pretty overrated, which was your original contention.
[41] Having said that..he's still a useful player (thank you Larry David!)
Thinking more about the Lackey deal for Boston..why would they pull out that money and give 5-years to a pitcher but not to an outfielder who proved he can mash at Fenway and is only 31? Seems odd to me...
[40] Just because he is batting lead off doesn't mean his speed makes up for his mostly average offensive ability. Also, you have to keep in mind that a break even SB% is around 70% (a CS hurts a lot more than a SB), so even Ellsbury's very high rate of 85% isn't that much above this level. If he was to slip a little, his SB value would diminish. Finally, it is worth noting that Ellsbury had 70 SBs, but only 94 runs.
[41] That's mostly true. However, I don't think there is consensus around the 1.7 multiplier. Besides, Ellsbury OBP is not that muich higher than the league average.
[42] Seems odd to me too...but with regard to Holliday, not Bay. If the Red Sox have any faith in Buccholz, one would think a big bat might do more to push them over the top. Perhaps they have no confidence in the trio of Wakefield, Clay and Dice-K.
[44] Hey, you think that when Bucholz stys in the rotation they can start selling "Dice-Clay" tee-shirts with him and Matsuzaka doing "tough" poses? Maybe wearing leather jackets?
[43]However, I don’t think there is consensus around the 1.7 multiplier.
I never said there was, but everyone agrees that OBP is the more important of the two, and that is his relative strength.
Besides, Ellsbury OBP is not that muich higher than the league average.
Right. And his SLG is not much lower than league average. Hence his OPS+ of right around league average (96); with a higher weighted OBP, he probably nudges above league average offensively.
Which means he is, as you said earlier, overrated.
Last year the AL hit . 336 OBP/.428 SLG. The average CF in the AL hit .329/.403 .
Ellsbury hit .355/.415, right in line with his career .350/.414.
In other words, last year OPS-wise he slightly outhit the league and clearly outhit the average CF. Of course, his OPS+ gets dinged because he plays in a hitters park. But overall, Ellsbury is not as bad offensively as you make him out to be, and that's without including his SBs.
He's overrated, but I think you overrate his overratedness!!
[42] Tango has been making that argument to some good effect for a number of years. He did a great article back in 2007 reporting on a weighted OPS calculation. It's published at "The Book" site and is certainly worth the read. I like the guys at RAB but just just can't see them getting credit for this work.! You can check it out here if you like:
Yeah, I completely agree that the Sox should unload Jacoby before the shine wears off. I'm hoping they won't do it.
Batting him lead-off prevents him from being an offensive negative. (Hey, I've been called an offensive negative a few times, myself.) The steals matter a little more there and the SLG problem costs less. He's still an average CF on a team that isn't going to play an avg position player when he's no longer cheap.
[46] Hi splaying in a hitter's park is pretty significant. Fenway's multi-year park factor is 107, which is pretty high. Outside of Fenway, his split was .348/.394, which is just about in line with the average CF. When you consider that his defense was off the charts poor (even if it exaggerated by the numbers), I don't think he is anything more than mediocre player. His SBs don't sway me beyond that assessment.
By the way, last year Melky's line looks like .336/.419/99+. He also played better defense. His WAR was 1.6, versus Ellsbury at 1.9 (higher partly because he played more games in CF). Melky is also a year younger.
Melky is still thought of as a fourth outfielder, while some people view Ellsbury as a coveted star who could be the center piece of a major deal, so no, I don't think I have overrated his overratedness.
[51] Ellsbury is overrated for 1 reason, and 1 reason only:
When he was called up in 2007, he hit .353 in (basically) September, and then hit .438 in the World Serious.
That not only got him a ton of attention nationally during the Serious broadcast, but it made the pink-hat wearing masses swoon over him. The story was then set in stone. Of course most of those folks still think batting average, runs scored, and RBIs are the be-all, end-all way to analyze whether a hitter is good or not, so of course Ellsbury (who hit .301 last year) remains "awesome" . . .
In any case, the Sox are doing things brilliantly, I'm afraid. A run saved = a run scored. The big free agent bats were way too expensive, so they're going pitching and defense. Last year, with a good-not-great pitching staff and a HORRIFIC defense, they were still 3rd in the AL in runs allowed, and only 4 runs behind Chicago for 2nd. They've significantly upgraded their pitching staff with Lackey, and with Scutaro, Beltre (I think he's a given) + playing Cameron in CF and Ellsbury in LF - which is exactly what they will do - they've significantly upgraded their defense. Even if their offense scores 70 or 80 less runs next year (so 790-800), if the allow 630 (100 less runs than last year, entirely possible given the changes), that's a 100-win team.
Now who knows. Maybe they don't sign Beltre, maybe Scutaro can't handle Fenway's infield, maybe Cameron gets hurt, the rotation after Lester-Beckett-Lackey sucks . . . but on paper, I am worried.
[53] Oh, and just to clarify - by done I don't mean "can't beat the Red Sox in 2010", because they absolutely can. By done I mean they aren't going to do anything else major in the free agent market. Maybe they sign a Nick Johnson or a Carlos Delgado, but outside of that, I see nothing.
Also, I was listening to Howard Stern a couple weeks ago and a game contestant mentioned his wife was with child, and they were planning on naming the kid Jacoby. I thought that was funny as hell.
Are people here saying Melky is close the player the Ellsbury is?
Ellsbury is far better in EqA and wOBA, and slightly worse on URZ/150.
I couldn't find any RetF stats (retard factor), but my guess is Ellsbury looks better on that stat too.
Personally, I think the Sox are a bit better then we are now. Mainly because EVERY Yankee offensive player except ARod posted better numbers in 2009 then their career averages. Having 2 older players gone mitigates that some, but I won't be surprised to see Jeter and Posada, and maybe Cano and Swisher and Melky, be less productive in 2010.
While another SP is needed for depth, I want both Phil and Joba in the SR and pitching every 5th day (although Phil as the #5 will be skipped a few times). I don't know how much more we can fuck with these kids before we damage their potential. If this tandem doesn't develop into a better then average #3 / #4, then we will spend the next bunch of winters back on the RJ-Brown-Pavano-Wright-Ponson merry-go-round.
For our future, we need to know what we can expect from these 2. If they both develop into better-then-average #3s (105-108 ERA+), then we have at least 3/5ths of a killer rotation.
BigPapi is one year older, and one year slower with the bat
Who is playing third for them next year? Bad-thumb Lowell?
How many games will they get out of Drew?
Is Mike Cameron still a viable offensive option in the OF?
Are the cracks they showed in Papelbon last year just a blip?
Will the real Josh Beckett please stand up?
Who replaces Jason Bay's offense?
Is Dice-K on the same page with the Sox pitching coach (training regimen)?
They STILL have a black hole at SS ...
[53] What exactly is so brilliant about what the Red Sox have done? They have signed a (37 year old) player whose value is tied to his defense and are considering moving him to LF, a position at Fenway that minimizes the importance of defense? Even if they do install Cameron in CF (and sign Beltre), their offense is going to take a major hit. Considering that they have a strikeout staff, I think the balance of need shifts away from gloves and toward bats.
[55][57] Melky's 2009 line compares very favorably to Ellsbury's, especially his road split. If you look at it sabermetrically (and therefore include the UZR data), then Melky and Ellsbury had very similar values in 2009.
[59] But you wouldn't be surprised to see Drew and Papi decline on top of the massive drop offs from Lowell and Bay to Cameron and Beltre?
And why should Cano and Melky, two players in their prime, decline? What about Youk and Pedroia?
And I know people excuse Lackey's stats in Fenway because he was facing potent Sox lineups, but the Yanks, Rays, O's still possess good lineups, so I don't know how well Lackey will fare in Fenway.
I heard a report that an "unnamed source close to Brian Cashman" says they are not going to bid on Bay or Holliday. Grain of salt type news, of course.
On the other hand, the Sox are now a little worried about how Lackey's medical exam turned out. They are allegedly going to ask for an out clause.
Rob Neyer loves the Sox deal for Cameron (surprise surprise..)..what am I missing here? He may still have a great glove but he's a K machine hitting his late 30s...I really don't think the Boston "O" can come close to ours, but the rotations are a push..
If things stay like this the Yanks should win the division by 7-8 games again, easy..
Hey, guys, just wanted to share my kooky dream from last night with you all:
I was at a spring training game and Derek went up to the plate without a bat. Just kind of strode to the plate with a smirk and no bat and proceeded to stand in the box with a big grin pretending to hold a bat.
The pitcher threw two pitches but they were both balls and I realized Derek was trying (successfully) to psyche the pitcher out. I started cracking up: Dude doesn't even have a bat and you still can't even throw strikes!!!
But the next pitch somehow ended up in the outfield, despite the fact that Derek still didn't have a bat. He rounded the bases and kept advancing when, as in little league, the other team botched each attempt to throw him out at each station. He came around to score and we both started laughing and I said to him, "Hey, Derek, amazing how you could hit the ball going up to the plate with nothing but your dick in your hand!" We yucked it up for a bit and that was that.
Mystic and aura, indeed.
(The "dick in your hand" line I later realized, came from the Godfather.)
[1] Source for Sawx worry on lackey please? Thanks for brightening my day!
Re: not bidding on Bay or Holliday, my concern is that it plays right into Boras/JD's hands. I truly hope we don't wind up overpaying (in years) for JD because we let too many other options fall away. Of course it could all be posturing, and maybe we sneak away with Holliday for 5 years and "it's only money" money...
[2] Yeah I think 2011 is going to be an expensive year of Cameron for Boston...
[5] Heard it on the Boston CBS radio affiliate, 98.5.
[3] Your shrink is going to loooooove that one.
[6] H ahh ah aheh heh heh he!!! Isn't it great?!--I woke up laughing!
[1] I wouldn't be upset if they made a big signing, but I don't think the Yankees really need one. I would be comfortable entering the season with the offense as currently constructed.
[2] Neyer's analysis lately has pretty much been a knee jerk deference to FanGraphs data. As a result, Cameron looks incredibly valuable relative to Bay because bothers players have extreme defensive metrics. My gut tells me Cameron is overrated and Bay is overpenalized, so the comparison is skewed if you take the numbers at face value. Also, Neyer seems to be ignoring Cameron's age, move to a more difficult lead and real possibility that he will be playing LF, which would seriousl detract from his WAR.
[5] I have an unhealthy obsession with Rob Neyer and his constant Boston love... I mean, his latest blog entry is "Sox spend less, win more"...really?? Did they win more last season by spending less on John Smoltz? Are they spending less by paying Mike Lowell and Alex Gonzales to play for other teams? It's odd...
(and pretty sad that it makes me so angry..maybe I am not listening to enough jazz these days...)
[6] The issue isn't the medical exam, but the parties dickering over language that would give the Sox some relief if a pre-existing condition reoccurs.
[8] The defensive evaluation may be a little off -- all those stats are noisy -- but it's unlikely to be way off. Cameron has been a ++ defender for a long time and the very big sample size should compensate for the noise.
It really depends a lot on whether you think Cameron is going to decline. On the one hand, he hasn't shown signs of decline. On the other hand, he's a 37 year old CF...
Speaking of unreliable stats, Walk Like a Sabermetrician has a nice assortment of statistical assessments of lead off hitters last year. Suffice it to say that there isn't much doubt about who was best.
[11] In 2007, Cameron rated as a very bad defensive player. I know good hitters can have bad offensive seasons, but I just can't bring myself to accept that defense can be as variable as some metrics make it out to be. Again, however, it really seems like Camerson is destined for LF, which throws out all the data.
[13] How do you explain Jeter's defensive stats this year? I disagree, defense can be a variable because of one simple thing: an injury. For an outfielder, their range can be affected if they suffered an injury to their leg and they are playing through it. For an infielder, it can be a leg or hand injury.
Well, I think you're both right [13] [14]. Defense can vary a lot from one year to another, but I agree that it's doubtful that it does in the absence of an injury.
I think the reason defensive measures bounce around is that they are noisy, as I mentioned. Most of the variation from year to year is random noise, due to the fact that (e.g.) more of the balls hit into the CF range are easier to catch one year, harder the next. But the sample for Cameron is now very big and I find it hard to believe that he's a lot overrated. There would have to be some kind of systematic distortion of UZR for Cameron in particular.
Oh, and I wouldn't be too surprised if the Sox trade Ellsbury. Could he be part of a package for Adrian Gonzales?
[15] i also think a decent amount is dependent on pitching and somewhat by extension positioning - we need something analogous to fip - like pif (pitching independent fielding)
[3] oh weeping - what would the banter be without you
so what's the problem with lackey and the sox - the ugly quotient just too high
[3] Sounds like someone needs to scale back on reading about all that hardcore Japanese porn we were discussing a couple of posts back, huh? >;)
[17] Late to the party, that's me...
[18] The cool kids always arrive late, Chyll..
[18] Better to be late than not show up at all.
[15] but if ellsbury is traded, or if they move him to lf and let cameron play center, they're presumably taking another hit, unless they get another outfielder. either cameron is not playing cf, and is therefore less valuable than he's been in the past, or he isn't replacing bay. so it makes no sense to compare them using war.
[18} We have Japanese porn now?! You go to the corner to buy one lousy pack of cigarettes, come back a year later and find everything has changed! I just don't know what to believe in anymore Chyll.
[22] Japanese porn..it sounds more enticing than it really is...
[22] Seems like change you can believe in to me...
[23] Is it only hardcore when they remove the pixels?
[15] If I was Boston, I would trade Ellsbury before another season exposes him for the mediocre player that he is.
[25] Seriously...if only the Yankees could cash in with one of Gardy/Melky the same way!
BTW, I just read this on MLB.com. does anyone else find the following words chilling:
[26] Melky > than Ellsbury (long-term potential that is..)
[24] Like so many things here that are topsy-turvy...pixels required by law, but can show all sorts of other degrading, disgusting and just bizzare things on screen..
I'll stick to my kimono-clad ladies in historical dramas :)
[27] George Will and Frank Robinson?? Jesus..did Kenesaw Mountain Landis not return his call?
Bud Selig...please, please retire...
[25] i'm not really sure what the knock on ellsbury is. that he has no power? he still had a .355 obp with 70 steals and was only caught 12 times. is he a terrible fielder?
[30] Based on metrics, he was absolutely awful in CF. His career OPS+ of 96 means he is a below average hitter who may also be a below average fielder at his position. The only thing that vaults him toward "average" is the high SB success rate, but that is often overrated.
[31] i'm sure it is overrated, but 70 steals in his 2nd full season with a career sb success rate of 85% is still pretty damn good, and i don't think that ops+ is all that useful for a player like that. still, it is odd that his defense is so terrible.
[29] All I know is that every change Selig has made to the game I have disliked. But at least these have been mostly on the level of scheduling and organization (including interleague play). Now he's talking about fucking with the game on the field. Kyrie eleison...
[27] what does george will have to do with baseball?
[34] He's a big fan or something, and waxed poetically on the Ken Burns documentary (IIRC). There was actually a bit of buzz for him as a long shot for commissioner, before the owners went and appointed someone more neutral...you know, another owner.
[34] And he's written a couple of baseball books, but I don't know much about them.
[35/6] interesting. i just hope there are no basement dwelling number crunchers on that committee (doesn't look like there are, thank god).
[32] Why isn't OPS useful for Ellsbury? It's a rough stat, but getting on base and slugging are important measurements for every player. Stealing bases looks nice, but they don't correlate well to scoring runs.
[36] They manage to be even more boring and un-enlightening than his political "analysis"...great hair though.. :)
[37] Whew! Can't risk any subversive elements on the comittee along side La Russa and Torre...
[38] because slugging percentage is about how many bases you get. that is useful for both driving in runs and getting into scoring position. for a leadoff hitter, getting into scoring position is likely the most important aspect of slugging. so 70 stolen bases adds a lot to ellsbury's value. why don't steals correlate to runs scored? a person is more likely to score the closer he is to home.
[38] To be fair, OPS and OPS+ undervalue OBP/overvalue SLG (some would argue that OBP should be weighted as much as 1.7 times SLG, according to a recent post on RIverAveBlues).
Whatever the formula, a player like Ellsbury looks worse because his slightly higher than average OBP is not weighed more heavily than his slightly lower than average SLG.
In the end, he is probably an average or even above average offensive performer (considering his OBP and SLG), made more valuable by his great SB total/SB rate.
This being said, he's still pretty overrated, which was your original contention.
[41] Having said that..he's still a useful player (thank you Larry David!)
Thinking more about the Lackey deal for Boston..why would they pull out that money and give 5-years to a pitcher but not to an outfielder who proved he can mash at Fenway and is only 31? Seems odd to me...
[40] Just because he is batting lead off doesn't mean his speed makes up for his mostly average offensive ability. Also, you have to keep in mind that a break even SB% is around 70% (a CS hurts a lot more than a SB), so even Ellsbury's very high rate of 85% isn't that much above this level. If he was to slip a little, his SB value would diminish. Finally, it is worth noting that Ellsbury had 70 SBs, but only 94 runs.
[41] That's mostly true. However, I don't think there is consensus around the 1.7 multiplier. Besides, Ellsbury OBP is not that muich higher than the league average.
[42] Seems odd to me too...but with regard to Holliday, not Bay. If the Red Sox have any faith in Buccholz, one would think a big bat might do more to push them over the top. Perhaps they have no confidence in the trio of Wakefield, Clay and Dice-K.
[44] Hey, you think that when Bucholz stys in the rotation they can start selling "Dice-Clay" tee-shirts with him and Matsuzaka doing "tough" poses? Maybe wearing leather jackets?
[43] However, I don’t think there is consensus around the 1.7 multiplier.
I never said there was, but everyone agrees that OBP is the more important of the two, and that is his relative strength.
Besides, Ellsbury OBP is not that muich higher than the league average.
Right. And his SLG is not much lower than league average. Hence his OPS+ of right around league average (96); with a higher weighted OBP, he probably nudges above league average offensively.
Which means he is, as you said earlier, overrated.
[43] To continue...
Last year the AL hit . 336 OBP/.428 SLG. The average CF in the AL hit .329/.403 .
Ellsbury hit .355/.415, right in line with his career .350/.414.
In other words, last year OPS-wise he slightly outhit the league and clearly outhit the average CF. Of course, his OPS+ gets dinged because he plays in a hitters park. But overall, Ellsbury is not as bad offensively as you make him out to be, and that's without including his SBs.
He's overrated, but I think you overrate his overratedness!!
[16] Thanks, dear Ms. O. :)
[46] "Overrate his overratedness!!"....this shall from now on be known as "The Jeter Parralax"...
[42] Tango has been making that argument to some good effect for a number of years. He did a great article back in 2007 reporting on a weighted OPS calculation. It's published at "The Book" site and is certainly worth the read. I like the guys at RAB but just just can't see them getting credit for this work.! You can check it out here if you like:
http://tinyurl.com/ykv26rr
Yeah, I completely agree that the Sox should unload Jacoby before the shine wears off. I'm hoping they won't do it.
Batting him lead-off prevents him from being an offensive negative. (Hey, I've been called an offensive negative a few times, myself.) The steals matter a little more there and the SLG problem costs less. He's still an average CF on a team that isn't going to play an avg position player when he's no longer cheap.
[46] Hi splaying in a hitter's park is pretty significant. Fenway's multi-year park factor is 107, which is pretty high. Outside of Fenway, his split was .348/.394, which is just about in line with the average CF. When you consider that his defense was off the charts poor (even if it exaggerated by the numbers), I don't think he is anything more than mediocre player. His SBs don't sway me beyond that assessment.
By the way, last year Melky's line looks like .336/.419/99+. He also played better defense. His WAR was 1.6, versus Ellsbury at 1.9 (higher partly because he played more games in CF). Melky is also a year younger.
Melky is still thought of as a fourth outfielder, while some people view Ellsbury as a coveted star who could be the center piece of a major deal, so no, I don't think I have overrated his overratedness.
[49] Yeah, that was a lazy, indirect reference on my part!
I think the surprise is that the Yanks are done.
[51] Ellsbury is overrated for 1 reason, and 1 reason only:
When he was called up in 2007, he hit .353 in (basically) September, and then hit .438 in the World Serious.
That not only got him a ton of attention nationally during the Serious broadcast, but it made the pink-hat wearing masses swoon over him. The story was then set in stone. Of course most of those folks still think batting average, runs scored, and RBIs are the be-all, end-all way to analyze whether a hitter is good or not, so of course Ellsbury (who hit .301 last year) remains "awesome" . . .
In any case, the Sox are doing things brilliantly, I'm afraid. A run saved = a run scored. The big free agent bats were way too expensive, so they're going pitching and defense. Last year, with a good-not-great pitching staff and a HORRIFIC defense, they were still 3rd in the AL in runs allowed, and only 4 runs behind Chicago for 2nd. They've significantly upgraded their pitching staff with Lackey, and with Scutaro, Beltre (I think he's a given) + playing Cameron in CF and Ellsbury in LF - which is exactly what they will do - they've significantly upgraded their defense. Even if their offense scores 70 or 80 less runs next year (so 790-800), if the allow 630 (100 less runs than last year, entirely possible given the changes), that's a 100-win team.
Now who knows. Maybe they don't sign Beltre, maybe Scutaro can't handle Fenway's infield, maybe Cameron gets hurt, the rotation after Lester-Beckett-Lackey sucks . . . but on paper, I am worried.
[53] Oh, and just to clarify - by done I don't mean "can't beat the Red Sox in 2010", because they absolutely can. By done I mean they aren't going to do anything else major in the free agent market. Maybe they sign a Nick Johnson or a Carlos Delgado, but outside of that, I see nothing.
[51] By the way, last year Melky’s line looks like .336/.419/99+.
Ahhh, that ol' lower OBP than SLG (relatively to league average) thing again....
[53] Story checks out.
Also, I was listening to Howard Stern a couple weeks ago and a game contestant mentioned his wife was with child, and they were planning on naming the kid Jacoby. I thought that was funny as hell.
Are people here saying Melky is close the player the Ellsbury is?
Ellsbury is far better in EqA and wOBA, and slightly worse on URZ/150.
I couldn't find any RetF stats (retard factor), but my guess is Ellsbury looks better on that stat too.
[56]
and their next kid will be named Meyers :-)
Personally, I think the Sox are a bit better then we are now. Mainly because EVERY Yankee offensive player except ARod posted better numbers in 2009 then their career averages. Having 2 older players gone mitigates that some, but I won't be surprised to see Jeter and Posada, and maybe Cano and Swisher and Melky, be less productive in 2010.
While another SP is needed for depth, I want both Phil and Joba in the SR and pitching every 5th day (although Phil as the #5 will be skipped a few times). I don't know how much more we can fuck with these kids before we damage their potential. If this tandem doesn't develop into a better then average #3 / #4, then we will spend the next bunch of winters back on the RJ-Brown-Pavano-Wright-Ponson merry-go-round.
For our future, we need to know what we can expect from these 2. If they both develop into better-then-average #3s (105-108 ERA+), then we have at least 3/5ths of a killer rotation.
[59]
Ummm .... hold on there.
BigPapi is one year older, and one year slower with the bat
Who is playing third for them next year? Bad-thumb Lowell?
How many games will they get out of Drew?
Is Mike Cameron still a viable offensive option in the OF?
Are the cracks they showed in Papelbon last year just a blip?
Will the real Josh Beckett please stand up?
Who replaces Jason Bay's offense?
Is Dice-K on the same page with the Sox pitching coach (training regimen)?
They STILL have a black hole at SS ...
[60] Well.....this just in: Sawx hard after AGon now...Bucholtz and Ellsbury anyone? Rosenthal/Morosi via MLBTR
[53] What exactly is so brilliant about what the Red Sox have done? They have signed a (37 year old) player whose value is tied to his defense and are considering moving him to LF, a position at Fenway that minimizes the importance of defense? Even if they do install Cameron in CF (and sign Beltre), their offense is going to take a major hit. Considering that they have a strikeout staff, I think the balance of need shifts away from gloves and toward bats.
[55] [57] Melky's 2009 line compares very favorably to Ellsbury's, especially his road split. If you look at it sabermetrically (and therefore include the UZR data), then Melky and Ellsbury had very similar values in 2009.
[59] But you wouldn't be surprised to see Drew and Papi decline on top of the massive drop offs from Lowell and Bay to Cameron and Beltre?
And why should Cano and Melky, two players in their prime, decline? What about Youk and Pedroia?
[62]
And I know people excuse Lackey's stats in Fenway because he was facing potent Sox lineups, but the Yanks, Rays, O's still possess good lineups, so I don't know how well Lackey will fare in Fenway.