No games today. Just storm watch. We got batteries, life jackets, water, an ark. We should be good to go.

Hope everyone stays safe.

[Photo Credit: Craig Robinson]

Imagine you’re sitting at home watching the game as you put your feet up on the couch to get ready for a relaxing, if stormy, weekend. You have high hopes because you don’t think things could go worse for A.J. Burnett than his last outing, and you know this is an important game — no one wants to lose even a single game to the lowly Orioles. But things go bad quickly. You smirk at the screen as Burnett muddles through the first inning, then implodes in the second. He pitches the entire inning, but it’s a disaster: groundout, homer, double, double, double, double, homer, E-1, 6-4-3 DP. When the inning finally ends the Yankees are down 6-0, and a loss seems inevitable.

You pick up the remote in disgust and are just about to call your wife to watch Project Runway, when you remember something. Doesn’t this seem an awful lot like yesterday? Didn’t you feel disloyal when you gave up on the Yankees when they were down 7-1? Didn’t you miss 21 runs and the beauty of Jorge Posada playing second base all because you lost faith?

You can’t let that happen again. So you put the remote down and get ready to watch the rest of the game. Seven innings later, you realize you made the wrong decision two days in a row. You remember yesterday’s bile as tasting good compared to what you’re feeling now.

After falling into that 6-0 hole on Friday night in Baltimore, the Yankees didn’t show quite the fight that they had on Thursday afternoon against the A’s. There was a home run from Posada in the fifth, cutting the lead to 7-1 (sound familiar?), but Burnett coughed up two more runs in the bottom half, then a two-out error by Robinson Canó in the sixth led to a three-run home run by Matt Wieters, and the Yanks were down by eleven.

Alex Rodríguez snapped the second-longest home run drought of his career when he went deep in the seventh, Swisher continued his hot hitting with a two-run homer later in the inning, and they tacked on another run in the seventh, but that did nothing more than change the final score. Orioles 12, Yankees 5.

It’s never fun when the Yankees lose, but there is obviously a much bigger concern here. Here’s a hint: it starts with A.J. and it ends with Burnett. His overall record right now sits at 9-11 with a 5.31 ERA, but if you want to know how bad he’s really been, read on. But be warned — what follows is not for the faint of heart.

We know what quality starts are, but Burnett’s season thus far has been measured by blow-up starts. Friday was his fifth outing where he allowed more runs than innings pitched. His last quality start was on June 29th against Milwaukee. Here’s his line since then:

56.1 IP/47 ER/70 H/27 BB/52 K/7.51 ERA/1.72 WHIP

On the surface, those are some pretty bad numbers, but they look even worse when you realize that they came against mediocre competition at best. Over those ten starts Burnett has faced Cleveland, Tampa Bay (twice), Oakland, Baltimore (twice), Chicago, Anaheim, Kansas City, and Minnesota. Those eight teams have a combined record of 491-550.

So we can agree that Burnett’s been bad for the past two months, but when we narrow our focus to August, it gets worse still. In his last five starts he looks like this:

22.2 IP/30 ER/44 H/9 BB/17 K/11.91 ERA/2.34 WHIP

Believe it or not, it gets comically worse. His last three starts have come against the three worst teams in the league. Many pitchers would be padding their stats against competition like this, but Burnett has actually gone in the opposite direction:

12.1 IP/19 ER/24 H/6 BB/8 K/13.87 ERA/2.43 WHIP

After Burnett’s last start, I used this space to defend him — or, more accurately, I attacked those in the media who attacked him. Now I’m here to tell you that the time has come for the Yankees to do something. Scranton is calling.

[Photo Credit: Patrick Smith/AP]

The Yanks start a series in Baltimore tonight. They are scheduled to play five games in the next four days. I say they get a couple in, maybe three.

Cliff’s go the preview.

Here’s the line-up:

Derek Jeter SS
Curtis Granderson CF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Jorge Posada DH
Russell Martin C
Brett Gardner LF

We’ll be around this weekend. Who knows what this weather will bring. The subways will stop running tomorrow afternoon as the city prepares for the worst. If you don’t see any updates it’s because we’ve lost power temporarily. Hopefully, it won’t come to that, although the wife did buy an ark today at Costco just in case.

Never mind Mother Nature:

Let’s Go Yank-ees!

[Photo Credit: Lewis W. Hine]

Can you be a slut for a restaurant? Course you can. And that’s just what I am for L’Artusi, the Italian restaurant in the village. It’s run by chef Gabe Thompson and his wife, Katherine, who does the desserts. They are s0me kind of talented pair, boy.

All of the food is tasty. I’ve mentioned the crispy potatoes and the spaghetti with green chilies before.

The olive oil cake alone is reason to make the trip. And so is this salad with tomatoes and watermelon over a slab of pancetta. The saltiness of the pork is balanced by the sweetness of the watermelon, the acid from the tomatoes, and there is an extra kick from little cubes of pickled watermelon rinds. It’s the kind of dish that makes you wish summer would last indefinitely.

 Oh, and the service is warm, the wait staff knowledgeable and friendly. Again, can’t recommend this jernt enough. And if you like it, dig Dell’Anima, also in the west village, owned by the same good folks.

Represent.

It’s funny how the fortunes of just one game can completely change the complexion and tenor of a column. With the Yankees trailing the A’s, 7-1, on Thursday and seemingly on the verge of being swept by a second-division club, I was ready to lay the hammer down on the team for an inexcusable letdown after a productive road trip. Six innings later, the Yankees had outscored Oakland by a 21-2 margin, set a record by hitting three grand slams in one game, and put the finishing touches on a 22-9 thrashing of the supposedly pitching-rich A’s. So much for a column ripping the Yankees’ effort or performance.

Instead, it’s nothing but praise for a Yankee team that showed some grit this week by trying to stage three consecutive comebacks against the A’s. Two of the comebacks fell short, but the third represented one of the greatest in-game turnarounds in franchise history. A game like the Thursday matinee can do wonders for a team’s confidence–not to mention some individual batting lines. With three hits, Derek Jeter lifted his season average to .299 and his on-base percentage to .360, as he continues to quiet his critics. Curtis Granderson’s grand slam pushed his RBI total over the century mark, giving him 100-plus RBIs and 100 runs scored, and strengthening his argument for the MVP. With a 5-for-5 performance, Russell Martin raised his average to .243, the first time that he has touched the .240s since the spring. And even Eduardo Nunez joined the party with three hits, lifting his batting average to .280 while also turning in an errorless performance at shortstop.

The Yankees won’t score 22 runs in any of their games with Baltimore this weekend, but they should be relaxed and ready to do more damage against one of the American League’s weaker pitching staffs. I have a feeling they may need to score more than a few runs in support of A.J. Burnett, who is scheduled to pitch the Friday night opener. It could be Burnett’s final start of the season, especially if he blows up the way he did against the Twins last weekend…

***

The Yankees put in a waiver claim for Carlos Pena this week, yet another indication that they are not satisfied with either Jorge Posada or Eric Chavez as the left-handed hitting DH. But don’t expect Pena to be fitted for pinstripes any time soon; the Cubs pulled back the 33-year-old Pena because they’re not willing to give him up for merely the waiver price. The Cubs would want something tangible in a trade, but the Yankees have little interest in giving up even one legitimate prospect for the former Tiger and Ray. In fact, the Cubs and Yankees did not even discuss a trade involving Pena after the waiver claim, an indication that the teams felt there was no middle ground from which to work.

Could Pena have helped the Yankees? With his 23 home runs and 74 walks, Pena would have added to the Yankees’ game plan of power and patience, and certainly would have been an upgrade over Posada. On the downside, Pena’s average is in the .220s, he strikes out a ton, and he would have offered no long-term help, given his age and his current one-year contract. He’s clearly not the player he was during his peak with Tampa Bay from 2007 to 2009. If the Yankees could have added him on a waiver claim, I would have been all for it, but the notion of giving up even a single prospect for an aging Pena does not strike me as the best of ideas.

In the meantime, the Yankees will continue to scan the waiver wires, and will put in claims for any left-handed hitting DH’s (Hideki Matsui?) or legitimate starting pitchers that might become available. The August 31st deadline is less than a week away. Stay tuned…

(more…)

When Bill James updated his Historical Baseball Abstract with Winshares in 2001, he felt comfortable about the offensive components but still was uneasy about defense. It’s very difficult to measure defensive skill and defensive value, and to make matters worse, skill and value are not necessarily related.

In researching the odd statistical variance between Bill Buckner and Steve Garvey, he hit upon a key element of defense which makes it difficult to quantify: discretion. Specifically he noticed that Buckner, who carried a weak defensive reputation racked up a ton of assists while Garvey, who owned four Gold Gloves, did not.

In the real world, this was a trivial distinction; all it really indicates is the preference of each player in making a certain play. Baseball players are taught from a young age that, when a ground ball is hit to the first baseman, it is the pitcher’s responsibility to cover first base. Buckner, in part because he had constant pain in his legs, was fanatic about insisting that pitchers do this. I can still see him in my mind’s eye, standing five feet from first base, fielding a slow-hit grounder with the glove on his right hand, pointing vigorously to the bag with his left hand, saying “Your play. Get over there. Cover the bag.” … If a pitcher failed to cover first, Buckner would immediately go to the mound and tell him about it.

Garvey, on the other hand, was paranoid about making unnecessary throws, and strongly preferred to make the play himself if he could. As Garvey saw it, why risk the throw when you can make the play yourself? In part, he saw it this way, no doubt, because he couldn’t throw; he was a fine first baseman, but he had no arm.

…Thus if you use assists by a first baseman to represent “range,” you will reach the conclusion that Buckner was a much better defensive first baseman than Garvey. … The problem with this is, it’s just not true. Buckner was not an outstanding first baseman, and Garvey was not a poor defensive first baseman. A hundred and twenty extra assists per season doesn’t really have any value to the team in this case, because it doesn’t refelct anything other than a choice.

For most of my high-school career, I played in left field next to a speedy center fielder and behind pitchers that often over powered their competition. I played more shallow and towards the line than a typical left fielder would play. I wasn’t fast, but I made good reads and got good jumps. The centerfielder had a better arm than I did, so if we converged on a ball with men on base, I let him make the catch. His skill-set in center let me get to foul balls and turn bloop singles into outs. I may not have made as many plays as I would have as an individual playing a more conventional depth, but as a team, we probably made more plays.

We’ve come a long way since 2001 with the defensive statistics. FanGraphs uses UZR and there’s Dewan’s Fielding Bible’s +/- system plus tons of other stuff is evolving all the time. Not to mention proprietary information hoarded by some, if not all, of the clubs. These systems are dogged and incredibly detailed. The most widely employed use the best information available to divide the field into buckets and to describe the kinds of balls hit into those buckets, and then to assign credits and debits for the plays that are made or not made. It’s a little dizzying, but if you want to read about all the hard work this entails, and how well-thought out the systems are, check here, here and here.

(more…)

In light of the news that Derek Jeter and Minka Kelly have split up, please see Jon’s New York Minute post from yesterday. Leave a comment while you are there if you are so inclined.

Turn the volume up. The song is best played loudly.

[Picture by Bags]

It’s dark and raining in New York. This might be a tough one to get in.

If they play, we’ll be rootin’:

Let’s Go Yank-ees.

Update: The start of the game is delayed. Check this out for fun while we wait.

[Photo Credit: Joel Zimmer]

I love legitimate theater.

Would a ticket to a night of one-acts inspired by Derek Jeter constitute the greatest gag gift ever given to a Red Sox fan?

I see a tough girl from the Bronx with a huge crush on Jeter. Her lumpy boyfriend, who is sweet but dim, takes her to a game for her birthday. Bleachers of course. He proposes at the game, fans jeer. And her answer is…?

Or a couple of low-lifes drink beer in a dark apartment working up the courage to go out and rob a convenience store. The ballgame is on in the background as they alternate between bickering and goading. The game turns dramatic, Derek Jeter sends it to extra innings with a clutch hit. Do the guys still commit the crime?

What do you see?

Entering this week’s series against the Athletics, the Yankees had a dominating 26-5 record against Oakland since 2008. Perhaps that’s why it seemed inevitable that the Bronx Bombers would rally to win each of the first two games. At least that’s how it must have felt to the Athletics. However, in both games, the comeback fell short, which gave Oakland consecutive wins against the Yankees for the first time since July 1, 2007.

The Yankees’ lack of late game heroics against the Athletics echoes a season long trend. Despite having the American League’s second best record and compiling statistics that rank among franchise highs in several categories, one area in which the Yankees have come up short (in some cases, as on Tuesday night, literally by inches) is in games played close and late. Under those conditions, the team’s current OPS+ of 107 would rank near the bottom since 1996, and lag, in some cases significantly, every championship season during that time period.

Yankees’ OPS+ in Close & Late vs. Winning Percentage When Tied or Trailing in the 7th Inning or Later

Source: baseball-reference.com

Because of the small samples involved, it’s hard to draw a meaningful conclusion about the future from this one split. However, looking back, we can probably conclude that the Yankees failure to produce late in games has cost them a few comeback victories. In fact, the team’s current winning percentage of .204 when tied or trailing entering the seventh inning is one of the lowest since 1996. When you consider that the Yankees’ bullpen leads the league in ERA and WAR (and important factor because offense alone demonstrates only a slight correlation to winning percentage in this split), the onus seems to fall squarely on the relative lack of late-game offensive production.

Yankees’ Walk-off Victories, Since 1950

Source: baseball-reference.com

Regardless of the implications of the Yankees’ muted offensive levels in close and late situations, whether looking forward or back, the team’s inability to finish off comebacks has robbed the season of one important element: the fun and excitement of the walk-off victory. To this point, the Yankees have left the opposition on the field in only three games, which pales in comparison to the 15 walk-offs recorded just two years ago. Although dramatic victories are not a pre-requisite for winning championships, they do provide enjoyable highlights over a long 162-game schedule. After all, anything that has Yankees’ fans clamoring to see A.J. Burnett must be pretty special.

Since 1950, the Yankees have had 441 walk-off victories prompted by outcomes ranging from home runs to reaching base on an error (the following pie chart, and what better way to display walk-off data, provides a break down). Just over half have come in the bottom of the ninth, with the rest occurring in extra innings, including one walk-off as late as the 20th frame: Horace Clark’s game winning single against the Red Sox’ Jose Santiago on August 29, 1967. Speaking of the Red Sox, the Yankees have left their rival on the field 57 times, more than any other opponent.

Yankees’ Walk-offs Since 1950, by Event and Opponent (click to enlarge)

Source: baseball-reference.com

Although the terminology wasn’t around at the time, no Yankee has authored more walk-offs than Mickey Mantle, who had 16 game-ending events. Among the current crop of Bronx Bombers, Jorge Posada, Derek Jeter, and Alex Rodriguez also rank in the top-10.

Tippy Martinez remains the Yankees’ most frequent walk-off victim, having surrendered five game-ending hits to the Bronx Bombers, including, most notably, Bobby Murcer’s two run double that cinched victory in the Thurman Munson tribute game. Of particular interest to current Yankees’ fans, Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon ranks among the large group of pitchers who have surrendered three Yankees’ walk-offs. Provided he remains in the American League for most of his career, Papelbon could eventually claim the victim’s mantle from Martinez.

Yankees Most Common Walk-off Heroes and Victims, Since 1950

Source: baseball-reference.com

Complaining about the lack of walk-offs from a team with a .600 winning percentage probably won’t sit too well with other teams’ fans, but those who follow the Yankees have grown accustomed to having their pie and eating it too. Besides, even though winning is fun in its own right, doing so in dramatic fashion makes it that much more memorable.

I can still vividly recall Don Mattingly’s game winning home run against Ron Davis on May 13, 1985 as if it happened yesterday. And, I am sure fans of every team can do the same. How about you?

As Jayson Stark points out, the Braves have tapped into an extraordinary vein of bullpen dominance with Jonny Venters setting up Craig Kimbrel. They’ve held hitters to absurdly low averages and only allowed two home runs between them. Respectively, their ERAs are 1.10 and 1.70.

The Yankees have a pretty impressive duo themselves, in Mariano Rivera and David Robertson. But Girardi has only used those guys for 100.1 innings while the Braves have called on their tandem for 137.1 innings. That divide scuttles any comparison.

Jason Stark notes that Kimbrel and Venters are possibly the best we’ve ever seen since the advent of current bullpen dogma. But he doesn’t consider Mariano Rivera and John Wetteland in 1996. Admittedly, their rate stats don’t come close to Venters and Kimbrel, but the Yankees got 171.1 innings  from their tag-team (thanks to heavy lifting – 107.2 – from Mo).

They didn’t stop there. Rivera and Wetteland spun another 26.2 innings in the postseason, allowed only four runs (1.35 ERA) and won the World Series. Wetteland was named World Series MVP. They toiled in a league which scored 5.36 runs per game. The 2011 Braves play in a league which socres 4.16 runs per game.

The Braves guys have a month and a half to go and could approach the innings total of Rivera and Wetteland. If they do that and maintain their statistical dominance, they’ve passed the Ol’ 96ers. But if Fredi González eases back on their usage or if they cough up some leads, I think you could at least make a good argument that the Yankees were as impressive covering more innings in a much harsher environment.

Looking at it another way, Rivera and Wetteland put up a combined 8.3 bWAR and 5.7 fWAR in the 1996 regular season. Kimbrel and Venters are at 6.7 and 5.0 and counting.  The Yankee hurlers combined for 9.658 WPA plus another 2.841 WPA during the title run. The Braves guys have only accumulated 7.6 WPA thus far. They have some work left to do.

I’m sure there were other duos that deserve inclusion. Wagner and Dotel combined for 172.3 stellar innings in 2002. Can you think of any others?

It also makes you wonder what Mo and Robertson could do if Girardi took off the leash? Mariano may be too old to give much more than he is giving now, but Robertson surely has gas in the tank. Would another ten innings for Rivera and another twenty from Robertson wreck their rates or put them in the conversation with Kimbrel and Venters?

For Yankee fans though, as long as Rivera and Roberston are strong in October, the title of best duo in the same bullpen can go to Atlanta.

Statistics from Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs

Check out this fine portrait of the 2011 Dodgers by Lee Jenkins in the current issue of Sports Illustrated.

Stow was in a coma. Half his skull had been removed to allow his brain to swell. He required seven forms of medication to limit his seizures. “He came as close to not making it as you can come,” says Dr. Gabriel Zada, Stow’s neurosurgeon at USC. His parents, Dave and Ann, and his sisters, Bonnie and Erin, spent seven hours a day at the hospital. At night they retreated to the downtown Marriott and toasted “the Great Hodge,” a nickname Stow gave himself as a boy. On April 6, a candlelight vigil was held outside the hospital. Hundreds attended, including Dodgers officials and a local talk-show host on KFI 640 AM named Bill Carroll. Ann invited Carroll to Stow’s room. Standing next to the bed, where Stow was covered in tubes and bandages, Carroll decided to make this story his own. He led his show with it most afternoons. He had Zada on as a regular guest. He sometimes took calls for three hours about the case, and when he went off the air, phone lines were still jammed. Everyone seemed to have survived a traumatic ordeal at Dodger Stadium, and they knew just who was responsible. “It was a convergence of two stories,” Carroll says. “People said, ‘I knew this would happen because McCourt let the team go downhill and security do the same.'”

Even after the Dodgers announced, on April 4, a $25,000 reward for information on Stow’s attackers, talk-radio host Tom Leykis pledged $50,000 of his own money in an attempt to embarrass McCourt. Leykis was also harassed at Dodger Stadium, by two fans during a game in 2009, and has not been back since. “I grew up in New York so I’m used to going to Yankee Stadium and seeing drunken louts threaten each other,” Leykis says. “Then I moved to L.A., and it was much different. Dodger Stadium was more like Disneyland. You have fun and feel safe and drift off into this dreamlike world. But now we’ve got this carpetbagger from Boston who never took the time to understand the deep connection of Dodger Stadium to Southern California. I’m not a dramatic person, but it hurts my heart. It kills me.”

Dodgers fans were not the only ones desperate to rid themselves of the carpetbagger. Commissioner Bud Selig told confidants that the Stow beating was “the final straw” for McCourt. By the time the Dodgers returned home from their first road trip, on April 14, Selig had dispatched a six-man task force to Los Angeles, led by MLB executive vice president John McHale Jr., to evaluate stadium security. McCourt’s hold on the franchise he had diminished was slipping.

Jenkins is an excellent reporter with a smooth prose style who has become one of SI’s top talents (he’s got two features this week). This is a long piece but worth reading.

Tip your hat to Coco Crisp. He beat CC Sabathia, David Robertson and Rafael Soriano on the same night. His first inning homer off CC started the scoring. His fister to center off Robertson in the eighth gave the A’s a short-lived 3-2 lead, and his three-run bomb to right in the tenth off a nothing-slider from Soriano won the game 6-4. A night after the Yankees failed to fully bake a comeback, the A’s showed them how to make it crispy.

Batting second, Crisp went 4-4 and the A’s were fortunate to have ninth hitter Scott Sizemore also go 4-4. That was eight of the eleven hits the A’s would get, but stacked the way they were in the order, they were timed just right to account for six runs. The Yanks spread their 11 hits around and only came up with four.

The Yankees broke a 1-1 tie in the sixth when Nick Swisher jacked a solo homer. Swish’s last four balls in play: homer, fly out to the top of the wall, homer, homer. He’s seeing beach balls right now. They had the chance to pad the lead in the seventh, but stranded Nuñez on third with no one out. For Girardi’s love of the bunt, he’s not one to squeeze. I’d support a squeeze with Gardner to push the lead to 3-1 with CC, Robertson and Mo available to get six outs.

Turns out the A’s didn’t need six outs to ruin the evening. Just one. A single, a sac and a double knotted the score and sent CC to the showers. David Robertson’s hammer failed to find the nails. He walked Jemile Weeks in front Crisp’s run-scoring single. He’s been so good that he can’t be faulted for this stumble. He escaped further damage with a fortunate double play as Derek Jeter sprawled to cover Hideki Matsui’s snaking liner.

With all that Robertson has done for the Yankees lately, 11 straight scoreless appearances, it was the least the offense could do to return the favor and pick-up him up off the mat. Maybe Mark Teixeira agreed as he wasted no time in tying the game with his 35th homer to start the eighth. The Yanks continued to apply pressure as Eric Chavez lashed toward left with two on and two out, but the ball made a bee-line for third baseman Scott Sizemore’s glove.

Mariano Rivera came in the face the heart of the order in the ninth and helped to make rookie Brandon Allen’s second visit to Yankee Stadium less pleasurable than his first. He was perfect for the fourth consecutive time since his rough week. Seven strikeouts in just four innings. I think those homers made him mad. Not mad enough to pitch two innings though, I guess. The Yanks sent Soriano out in the tenth after only 12 pitches from Mariano.

This is the first series the Yanks have dropped in the second half apart from the Red Sox series. The Red Sox crushed the Rangers again, so that puts the Yanks in second place. Every time the two teams pull even, the Red Sox reassert their claim on the division lead. The AL East will still probably be decided in the remaining games between the two leaders, but it would be nice to be the one on top when those games happen.

Last night was about as satisfying as a loss can get. Tonight was… not.

***

Three starts ago CC Sabathia was a front runner for the Cy Young Award. After getting bombed by Boston and losing to Tampa, he’s completely out of the race. Prior to August, CC let up six homers all season. This month alone he’s allowed eight long balls. Of course, Justin Verlander is just a s responsible as CC for the fall, dude’s been lights out. But shoot, that happened fast. The good news is that even during this funky month, CC has struck out 35 in 36.1 innings, and walked only three. The 11+ K/BB ratio means good things are just around the corner in September.

Speaking of August, Derek Jeter is about to log his second consecutive month with a slugging percentage over .400. This is notable because after April 2010, he slugged .338 for the next eight months. In not one of those months did he slug higher than .379, falling to the unthinkable nadir of .272 in April 2011. His ISO was .078. But over the course of his last 188 PAs, he’s slugged .470 and his ISO is closer to his career average: .119 vs .136. I have no idea if skipping the All Star Game helped him achieve this turn-around, but I won’t make a stink if he chooses not to go next time.

Derek Jeter singled in his first two at bats tonight. It brought his season average to .299. We all know that batting average does nothing more than measure the ratio of hits to official at bats, and OBP, wRC+ and wOBA (among many other stats) are far superior when measuring a player’s quality. But I’d be lying if I said I’m not pulling for Jeter to see the sunny side of .300. He ended up 2 for 5 and stands at .297.

Alex Rodriguez is still out, but C.C. is on the hill.

While we wait for the game to start, check out this interview with Marc Carig over at The Yankee Analysts. Nice job by Carig and Moshe Mandel.

Brett Gardner LF
Derek Jeter SS
Curtis Granderson CF
Mark Teixiera 1B
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Jorge Posada DH
Eduardo Nunez 3B
Francisco Cervelli C

Never mind the preamble: Let’s Go Yank-ees!

[Drawing by Larry Roibal]

Yeah, I know it’s the off-season, but still, great is great:

Over at Pinstriped Bible, Steve Goldman asks: Why did Joe Girardi play for one run in a two-run game?

In the bottom of the ninth inning of Tuesday night’s game against the A’s at Yankee Stadium, the Yankees trailed 6-3 entering the frame. Jorge Posada led off with a solo home run off of A’s closer Andrew Bailey, closing the deficit to 6-4. Russell Martin followed with a double, and Brett Gardner reached on third baseman Scott Sizemore’s error, putting runners on first and second with no outs and bringing Derek Jeter to the plate.

Jeter is tremendously hot right now. He came into the game hitting .339 since returning from the disabled list and he went 3-for-3 with a walk prior to the ninth-inning plate appearance. Again, the Yankees needed not one run, but two. In baseball this year, teams that have put runners on first and second with no outs have scored an average of 1.4 runs, which is to say the Yankees stood a very good chance of scoring one run there and a solid chance at scoring another. Teams that have runners on second and third with one out see their expected runs go down to 1.3, a fractionally smaller number, but it’s still less of a chance to score. I leave it to you whether eliminating the double play was worth trading that fraction of a run as well as the possibility of having three chances to score those two runs instead of two. Again, we’re talking about old school Derek Jeter here, not April-June Jeter. The formerly ground-ball obsessed GDP expert has hit into just three twin killings in 40 games, the last one coming about two weeks ago. What do you do?

Girardi chose to take the bat out of Jeter’s hands.

I thought it was gone. I already knew they had lost the game, but when I watched the ninth inning on replay I still thought Nick Swisher’s deep drive to center was gone off the bat. But his bid for a second homer in the final two innings settled into Coco Crisp’s glove at the centerfield wall for the final out of the game.

The way the Yankees are playing right now, ignore the fall and enjoy the bounce. The A’s dragged the Yanks around the field for seven and a half innings last night like a corpse. Trailing 6-0 with two-out in the eighth, the Yankees pounded out five runs and came a few feet shy of four more. It was a loss in the end, 6-5, and with the Red Sox winning big in Texas, that matters. But as losses go, give me one that falls just short of an amazing victory.

If you care about justice, it was a fair result that Swisher’s blast ended up an out instead of a game-winning grand slam. The batter before Swisher was Robinson Cano, and with a full count, the umpire gave him first base on what was clearly strike three. But even if the call was bad, the pie would have still tasted as, er, mediciney.

The 2009 Yankees have really spoiled us. This year’s team probably has a few sweet comebacks but I barely remember them. Down 4-1 at Toronto in the eighth? One time they were trailing Baltimore by four runs early? This game would have blown those out of the water. But as it stands, there’s a lot of extra pie to go around this year as the Yankees win early and big, and lose close. Luckily, they do the former way more than the latter.

So your scorching hot shortstop has three hits on the night and represents the winning run at the plate with nobody out in the bottom of the ninth. Do you like that sac bunt there? You want to avoid the double play and Jeter is ground ball machine. But he has only nine GIDP this year, fewest of any of the regulars apart from Gardner, who has five. Before Jeter’s injury, the bunt is a no-brainer. But right now, I’d like to see him hit away. If you must put on a play, how about a hit and run? Even if Jeter grounds into a double play, Granderson still gets a chance to tie it with one swing.

Bartolo Colon did not spot the A’s all six by himself, though he was charged with five runs. He was not good against a terrible offense and Boone Logan couldn’t strand two of his runners in the seventh. Hector Noesi also got nicked for an insurance run which ended up being the difference, though at the time it just made the score 6-0.

Brandon Allen enjoyed his first trip to New York, hitting two home runs. If you’re reading this in the morning, heads up and cover your coffee mug as the one he hit in the second inning should be landing somewhere around breakfast tomorrow.

We celebrate comebacks because they remind us not to give up. Not be pessimists. Not be fatalists. This was a comeback that didn’t result in victory, but it should teach us those lessons just the same. Hopefully there a few more chances to wear pie this season.

Bartolo “Diego Rivera’ Colon is on the mound tonight as the Yanks start a three-game series against the A’s at the Stadium.

Alex Rodriguez was a late scratch with a sore thumb. All the same, our purpose remains:

Let’s Go Yank-ees!

[Note:  “The Watermelons” (1957) was Rivera’s final painting]

Joe Posnanski on the AL MVP race:

Right now, I firmly believe the best player in the American League is Jose Bautista. And, right now, he’s my MVP. There are plenty of good candidates who can catch him — and most of them are on teams in contention. The Red Sox have Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury, both are having great years. One of my favorite players in the game, Curtis Granderson, is having a marvelous season for the Yankees. Ben Zobrist, one more time, is having the best year nobody’s noticing. Miguel Cabrera continues to slug. It’s difficult to compare pitchers and hitters, but Justin Verlander has been almost unhittable — at time actually unhittable — and others like C.C. Sabathia and the Angels pair of Dan Haren and Jered Weaver are pitching extremely well.

But, for me, it’s Bautista by two or three lengths heading into the home stretch. Somebody has to catch him. And, no offense to the quality of leadership or hustle or RBIs or wins or any other sort of unnoticed value, but they’re going to have to catch him with production I can see.

Agreed. Be interesting if Verlander makes a push, though.

And over at Grantland, here’s Jonah Keri on Montero vs. Posada:

The Montero Legend took a huge leap forward Monday night. Playing the remainder of a suspended game plus a full game in what amounted to a virtual doubleheader, the 21-year-old slugger exploded, going 5-for-8, blasting two homers, and knocking in seven runs. After a slow start, Montero’s up to .290/.349/.456 for the year. Although skeptics wonder whether he can handle the defensive rigors of catching in the big leagues, most believe he’ll be a great hitter.

… Posada has actually put together a half-decent season as a platoon guy (.249/.354/.453), after a disastrous start to the year. Despite Montero’s recent surge, Posada’s line against righties compares favorably with the kid’s overall numbers. The old man may not be quite dead yet.

So what to do? Montero’s tantalizing talent still has Yankees fans drooling to get a look at him — a chance they might get in September. If Montero succeeds, Posada might get left off the postseason roster, his days as a Yankee over for good. Whatever decision gets made, Yankees fans should hope it’s based on performance, not politics. You can get away with a sub-optimal roster when the Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals and Seattle Mariners are on the schedule. But in the postseason, you’d better bring your best 25 with you. Or else.

[Montero picture via Bronx Baseball Daily]