"A New York Treasure" --Village Voice
Category: Baseball

Dollars and Cents

 

Fresh direct from Fortune magazine archives, check out this 1946 article about the Yankees:

In more ways than one, Larry MacPhail is like no other figure in baseball’s ruling class–the “magnates.” Because he is publicity minded and operates on terms of rowdy good-fellowship with the press, to whom he addresses a few thousand wellchosen words almost every day of his life, he is constantly in the news, and not always in a complimentary light. Where Ruppert was always “the Colonel” (an honorary title conferred on him at age twenty-two), MacPhail, who won his rank in service, is more likely to turn up even in the staid New York Times as “Loquacious Larry” or the “Rambunctious Redhead.” Once, in a fit of passion, he threw a middle-aged punch at the capable and well-liked Arthur Patterson, then covering the Dodgers for the Herald Tribune. Patterson, whose hair is just as red as MacPhail’s, countered in kind. MacPhail was so pleased about the affair that he later appointed Patterson traveling secretary and publicity director of the Yankees. The MacPhailian legend, indeed, stops precariously short of clownishness. Irrevocably, he is what the boys call “a character.” It is a curious, possibly a useful, mask for one of the abler businessmen in the U.S. and, with the possible exception of scholarly Branch Rickey, the soundest operator in baseball. (Rickey is a great all-around baseball man, but is now undergoing, in Brooklyn, his first real test as the president of a major-league club.)

The idea of MacPhail as a brooding Byronic figure would give most of his acquaintances a laugh, but even so it may be that he is entertaining a mildly psychotic war in his bosom. As a red-haired, freckle-faced kid in Ludington, Michigan, at the turn of the century, Larry liked to play nine o’ cat until dusk, but he practiced his piano lessons, too, and at fourteen was good enough to play the organ in the Episcopal Church. At sixteen he qualified for Annapolis but went to Beloit instead, where he was a star in his three favorite sports–baseball, football, and debating. During vacations he played pro ball under an assumed name. “In the Southern Michigan Association one season,” he can be induced to recall, “I hit .282. Fred (Bonehead) Merkle was in the league that year and was sold to the Giants for $750. He hit .274.”

Things Fall Apart

 

Over at the Boston Globe, Dan Shaughnessy has a long interview with Theo Epstein:

Epstein: I think taking a step back, if you take a look at what our baseball group was best at, we were best at drafting and developing young talent and finding some undervalued players. I think we were the best drafting team of the decade and all that. That’s a very patient, organic approach. Pure . . .

“We joked about it all the time in the front office. We’d say, ‘Wouldn’t it be great if we could just say, screw free agency altogether. We’re going with a purely home-grown lineup. We’re going with old-school, Branch Rickey-style, pre-free agency, pre-draft whatever?’

“Middlebrooks at third, Lowrie or Iglesias at short, Pedroia at second, Rizzo at first, Lavarnway catching, Ellsbury in center, Reddick in right, Kalish in left. Wouldn’t that have been fun?

“We kind of clung to that in the back of our minds, knowing it was impossible, recognizing that there was an inherent tension between that approach and bigger business. I kind of kick myself for letting my guard down and giving into it, because that might be a better team in some ways and resonate more with the fans than what we ended up with.

“When you make a mistake in the draft, you just keep drafting. You keep finding another player to develop. When you make a mistake in free agency, you’re stuck with it for the duration of the deal and it can be a real impediment.

[Photo Credit: Neil Leifer]

Color by Numbers: Keeping Score of Cain’s Perfection

Photo: Getty Images

It’s hard to be better than perfect, but last night, Matt Cain was just that. Not only did the Giants’ right hander throw the 22nd perfect game in baseball history (and first in franchise history), but he also tied Sandy Koufax for the most strikeouts while doing so. What’s more, Cain’s game score of 101 matched Koufax and Nolan Ryan for the best mark ever posted in a no-hitter of any kind.

Most Strikeouts in a No-Hitter or Perfect Game

*Denotes perfect game.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

By joining Koufax and Ryan with a game score of 101, Cain’s masterpiece takes a back seat to only Kerry Wood’s remarkable rating of 105. Then 20-years old, the Cubs’ phenom accomplished the feat on May 6, 1998, when he struck out 20 Houston Astros, the same franchise Cain dominated to make history last night. Although Cain’s perfection fell shy of Wood’s record, his performance was still only the 10th game score of 100 or greater in nine innings since 1918, making that accomplishment even rarer than the perfect game itself (the highest game score ever recorded is 153, by Joe Oeschger in an epic 26-inning affair).

100-Plus Game Score Club, Since 1918

*Denotes perfect game.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

No one should be surprised by Cain’s brilliant outing. After all, the right hander has now authored two of the top game scores this season. For those less inclined to trust esoteric statistics, Cain had previously thrown three complete game one-hitters, so maybe a no-hitter was just a matter of time?

Matt Cain’s Top-10 Game Scores

Source: Baseball-reference.com

Now that he has thrown one of the best nine inning games in baseball history, what will Matt Cain do for an encore? History hasn’t been very kind to perfect game pitchers in their next start, but after last night’s performance, for Cain, the exceptional might be the new rule.  Maybe he’ll join Johnny Vander Meer as the only pitcher to throw consecutive no-hitters? Or, perhaps, he’ll break Mark Buehrle’s record of 45 consecutive batters retired (dating back to his previous start, Cain has retired 32 batters in a row)? The Angels are next up on the schedule, so they should consider themselves forewarned.

Honey Dripper

Our pal Josh Wilker on Larvell Blanks.

And here’s Josh on Mark Langston, Dwayne Murphy, and Dirt Tidrow.

Yanks Beat Rays Behind Better Nova

After struggling in his last start against the Angels, Ivan Nova repeatedly talked about needing to get better. It didn’t take him long to fulfill that promise. Following in the footsteps of Phil Hughes and Andy Pettitte, Nova turned in one of the best games of his career and completed only the Yankees’ second turn through the rotation with consecutive quality starts.

When Desmond Jennings singled to lead off the first inning, there were probably more than a few groans throughout the crowd, but that turned out to be the last hit Nova would allow until Sean Rodriguez’ double in the eighth. In between, Nova allowed only two other base runners, as the right hander kept the Rays off balance with a mix of fastballs, sliders, and curves, all of which he was able to throw for strikes.

The Yankees needed Nova to be strong because Rays’ right hander Alex Cobb was nearly as good. Over his first seven innings, the 24-year old starter limited the Yankees to two hits, but each one left the ballpark. In the second inning, the Yankees jumped ahead 1-0 when Mark Teixeira circumvented the shift by sending a curveball deep into the second deck of the right field stands. Two innings later, Robinson Cano doubled the Yankees lead by hitting a wall scrapper that didn’t go nearly as far but counted just the same. The blast came right after Alex Rodriguez was picked off first by Jose Molina, but the forfeited run proved inconsequential.

In the bottom of the eighth, the Yankees tacked on two more runs when Raul Ibanez, Nick Swisher and Eric Chavez recorded consecutive hits, knocking Cobb from the game in the process. Even before the Yankees extended their lead, Joe Girardi seemed committed to giving Nova a chance for a complete game shutdown, but the extra runs made the decision even easier. The cushion also saved Girardi from being second guessed when the Rays greeted Nova with back-to-back triples to start the ninth. However, all questions were rendered moot by Rafael Soriano, who quickly restored order by striking out the next two batters before retiring old friend Hideki Matsui on a deep fly ball to right.

With the victory, the Yankees leap-frogged the Rays into second place, a position they haven’t occupied since April 24. The win also pushed the Yankees’ record to seven games over .500 for the first time all season and set the stage for a series sweep. Perhaps even more important than the season milestones, however, the outcome was also a shot in the arm for Nova, who proved he could be better…at least for one night.

The Illest

Man, every time I hear the name “Joey Votto” I think of Bob Sheppard.

Over at SI.com, Tom Verducci makes the case for Votto being the best hitter in the game:

I could throw a gazillion other numbers at you to help define the wizardry of Votto, but I like these three best:

• Votto has not popped up to the infield all season. In fact, he has popped out to the infield only three times in 2,138 plate appearances over the
past four seasons.

• The average NL hitter bats .198 when he is behind in the count. Votto hits .300 when he is behind in the count.

• Votto has pulled a ball foul into the stands only once in his entire major league career. Once.

“Sure, I remember it,” he said. “It was my rookie year. It wasn’t that deep — and maybe 20, 30 feet foul. I haven’t hit a long home run foul in my whole career.”

I was stunned when Votto told me that. We were talking about pull hitting last Friday because I was intrigued that he had not hit a home run to rightfield all year. (Lo and behold, he smacked a Wandy Rodriguez breaking ball into the rightfield seats about two hours later.) I told him I’ve noticed that he almost never gets out on his front foot with the barrel well in front of the plate — a mistake of timing that often creates the empty drama of the majestic but worthless foul “home run.” And that’s when he told me he never has hit one of those crowd teasers.

Dag.

Built to Last?

Over at SI.com, our pal Jay Jaffe says the Mets’ moment in the sun may not last.

[Photo Credit: Michael G. Baron]

Color by Numbers: Loaded Questions

What would the Yankees’ record be if their performance with runners in scoring position was on par with recent seasons? With a few key hits at the right moment, the Yankees could be resting comfortably in first place, but so far this season, the team hasn’t been able to land the big blow with the same amount frequency. And, in no situation has that been more evident…and costly…than when the Yankees have loaded the bases.

Yankees Offensive sOPS+ Rates, 1996-2012

Note: sOPS+ compares a team’s split to the adjusted average for the major leagues. A reading above 100 is considered above average for an offense.
Source: baseball-reference.com

Entering play on Wednesday, the Yankees ranked near the bottom of the major leagues in terms of batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging (.151/.222/.302) with the bases full. Based on OPS, not only does that performance rate fail to attain even 50% of the major league average, but it also ranks as the franchise’s third lowest output since 1948. Also, the differential between the team’s overall offensive production and its performance with the bases loaded is currently larger than at any point over the same timeframe.

Clearly, the Yankees have been laggards with the bases loaded, but is this really a bad harbinger? Based on correlation from 1996 to now, the Yankees’ performance with the bases loaded has only been moderately related to overall run production as a percentage of the league average (r=.62).  Meanwhile, the link between relative runs scored and OPS with men in scoring position has been more significant (r=.78). So, if anything, fans who are inclined to worry should focus their concerns on the more broad number.

Yankees’ Bases Loaded vs. Overall OPS, 1948-2012
 

Source: baseball-reference.com

It hasn’t been all bad news for the Yankees with the bases loaded. While the hitters have struggled in such situations, the pitching staff has done a good job wiggling out of trouble when the bags are jammed. In 42 plate appearances with the bases loaded, opposing hitters have produced at rates of .263/.262/.368 (sOPS+ of 76), including 13 strikeouts and only one walk. It might only be a small consolation, but at least Yankees’ pitchers have been able to offset some of the offense’s missed opportunities by imposing the same frustration on the opposition. Unfortunately, since 1996, there has been no correlation between the Yankees’ ability to limit the damage in bases loaded situations and prevent runs overall (r=.04), so there doesn’t seem to be much benefit from that guilty pleasure.

Yankees Pitching sOPS+ Rates, 1996-2012

Note: sOPS+ compares a team’s split to the adjusted average for the major leagues. A reading below 100 is considered above average for a pitching staff.
Source: baseball-reference.com

An optimist probably looks at the Yankees’ ability to hang around first place despite its offensive struggles with runners in scoring position as a positive sign. Meanwhile, the pessimist might consider the offense’s inefficiency to be a systemic problem that will prevent the team from outscoring the deficiencies of the starting rotation. Which side are you on? I take a little from both. The lineup’s track record suggests the Yankees’ offense will soon start making up ground on the past, but it won’t matter if they can’t stay ahead of the current opposition. A few more hits with the bases loaded would definitely be nice, but the real loaded question is whether the pitching staff can ensure that those runs will be meaningful when they finally cross the plate.

You Only Die Twice

 

Here’s a nice chat between Jeff Pearlman and Shawn Green:

JEFF PEARLMAN: So I’ve always wanted to ask a ballplayer this, especially one I covered. When I was on the beat, I loathed the ritualistic nonsense of the clubhouse. What I mean is—I enter the room, I need to talk to Shawn Green. I see you at your locker. I wait to come over, you’re talking to Carlos Delgado, I pause, then I approach, you pick up a magazine, I pause. You know I’m there, I presume, but keep reading. I finally come over, ask a banal ice-breaker. Are you, as a player, as aware of this as I am?

SHAWN GREEN: The truth is, in general athletes don’t like the media. There are always certain guys you like, and there are always certain guys you can’t stand. The other writers all sort of get lumped into the middle. And, obviously, as an athlete the bigger you are in the game, the more attention you get. For me … well, it depended. In Los Angeles a lot of the players didn’t like T.J. Simers, because he could be very critical. I actually liked him, because I felt like I understood what he was doing. He would poke you, hope you’d blow up, then he’d poke you the rest of your life. I just never blew up, and I spoke to him without any incident or problem. What I didn’t like were the reporters who would just show up every once in a while, act like they were your best friend, then crush you in print. I understand reporters have to do their jobs, but that’s what bothered me—when it was unfair.

As for the clubhouse, there are definitely times as a player, it’s an unwritten thing, but you mess with reporters and make them wait a little while. I was much more likely to lean that way if I had a great game than a bad game. When I had a bad game I just wanted to take my medicine and move on.

Comings and Goings

One of our favorite blogs, Pitchers and Poets, is calling quits. We don’t expect that this’ll be the last we hear from Eric and Ted, though (and there’s always their bitchin’ tumblr site to follow).

Meanwhile, another old friend, Jay Jaffe, makes his debut at SI.com today. Head on over and bookmark his new address.

And in Yankeeland, Brett Gardner is inching toward a return. Won’t be this week though. Can’t be soon enough.

[Photo Credit: Justin Edmonds/Getty Images, via It’s a Long Season]

Color By Numbers: Hare Today, Playoffs Tomorrow

The Yankees head into a much needed off day on a two-game winning streak, but the team still finds itself in fourth place with a disappointing  23-21 record. A four game deficit in the loss column is hardly insurmountable, especially in May and particularly when the division leader has been a perennial loser for the last 14 years, but there are still some signs of caution evident in the Yankees’ relatively slow start.

Most Yankees’ fans probably have little doubt that the Bronx Bombers will soon overtake the first place Baltimore Orioles, but history suggests that the O’s chances of sustaining their fast start are actually pretty good. Regardless, the bigger question for the Yankees is will they be able to flip the switch and play at a much higher level for the remainder of the season. According to the franchise’s historical record, the road to the playoffs has been paved with a fast start, so this year’s team certainly has its work cut out.

Considering the 2011 Yankees started out 24-20 and still went onto win 97 games, this year’s slow start by franchise standards (70% of Yankees’ teams began with a better record over the first 44 games) hasn’t really caused a panic. However, it’s worth noting that last year was more of an exception than the norm. Not surprisingly, the Yankees’ final regular season record has been highly correlated to performance in the first quarter (r=.73 since 1901; r=.68 since 1961, when the 162 game season was initiated), so, if history holds, this year’s Bronx Bombers could be facing an uphill battle.

Yankees’ Historical Winning % (Full Season and After 44 Games) Correlation
 

Source: baseball-reference.com

Another somewhat ominous indication is the fact that only two Yankees’ teams who started the season as slowly as the current edition bounced back to win the division. What’s more, only six of the 46 first place finishes in franchise history started out with a winning percentage below .550. More often than not, when the Yankees’ have had a successful season, the team has gotten out of the gate quickly. This relationship is even stronger when only considering championships as nearly 60% of the franchise’s 40 A.L. pennants and 27 World Series victories came in seasons when the team’s winning percentage was at least .600 after 44 games.

Distribution of Yankees’ Postseason Teams Based on Record After 44 Games

Source: baseball-reference.com

Every season has its own set of mitigating factors that influence the final outcome. However, aggregate data can often smooth out some of the variables, providing a rough road map for what the future holds. As last year (which is probably the most relevant comparison, considering the proximity) proved, the Yankees are more than capable of shaking off early season doldrums, but that doesn’t mean fans, or the team itself, should minimize some of the struggles. If the Yankees do recover once again, they will need to perform much better across the board, and their ability to do so should not be taken for granted. In some arenas, slow and steady may work just fine, but in the pennant race, a fast start has always worked to the Yankees’ advantage.

Do You Believe in Miracles?

There is a long profile on Ivan Nova by Jorge Arangure Jr. over at ESPN. Check it out.

[Photo Credit: AP]

Morning Art

In Living Color. Nifty redesign by John Turney over at Uni Watch.

Yanks Win by a Nose, but Offense Doesn’t Pass the Smell Test

Arod and Teixeira teamed up to record the final out of the game. (Photo: AP)

It wasn’t the resounding breakout game most Yankees’ fans have been desperately anticipating, but on the strength of three runs, and Alex Rodriguez’ game ending throw, the Bronx Bombers finally managed to squeak out a much needed victory.

May has mostly been a gloomy month for the Yankees, but one bright spot has been the baby steps taken by Phil Hughes. In tonight’s game, the right hander broke out of the gate strong, but then fell victim to two old bugaboos. In the top of the third, Hughes left an 0-2 pitch over the plate to Humberto Quintero, who promptly lined an RBI double into the right field corner. Entering the game, Hughes had allowed opposing hitters to bat an astounding .293/.341/.537 (or 191% better than the league average) when ahead in the count 0-2, so Quintero’s run scoring hit was only the latest in a season’s worth of frustration born of poor location.

The Royals added to their lead in the fourth inning when Jeff Francoeur drove a 2-0 fastball into the left field seats. The long ball has been a season-long tormenter of the Yankees’ starting rotation, but no one has been more vulnerable than Hughes, who has been victimized at least once in each of his starts.  In 47 1/3 innings, Hughes has now allowed 11 home runs, giving him the third highest rate per nine innings among all qualified major league starters.

The negatives aside, Hughes did manage to hold the Royals to only two runs over six innings, which was important because the offense wasn’t quite ready to bust out. The Yankees finally got on the board when Robinson Cano launched a long home run in the fourth inning, but the winning rally was much more subdued. In the bottom of the fifth, the Yankees loaded the bases on a seeing-eye grounder, hit by pitch, and bunt single, setting the stage for another golden scoring opportunity. With the memory of last night’s failure with bases loaded still fresh in everyone’s mind, Derek Jeter fell behind in the count, but finally produced a run with a single that was flared into right. Would this be the hit that would jump start the Yankees’ struggling offense and put an end to their futility with runners in scoring position? Unfortunately, the answer was no. After Curtis Granderson’s ground out produced another run, Alex Rodriguez and Raul Ibanez each went down swinging to end the rally.

Although the Yankees may not have exited the inning with good feelings, they did come away with the lead. Keeping it, however, wouldn’t be easy.  Over the final three innings, Joe Girardi used five different relievers to record the last nine outs (such is life without Mariano), but his master plan almost hit a snag in the bottom of the ninth inning. With two outs, Alex Gordon, who had doubled, was at third when Alcides Escobar hit a grounder that Rodriguez fielded deep behind the bag. Arod’s only play was to desperately put his entire body into the throw, which hurtled across the diamond as Escobar raced down the line. The ball finally nestled into Mark Teixeira’s outstretched glove just ahead of the base runner, giving the Yankees a victory by the narrowest of margins, and, perhaps, a one-day reprieve from having to answer questions about not getting the big hit.

Art and Design

Dig the beauty that is all things Eephus. Bethany Heck’s got it going on. Thank you, Lady, for making our day brighter.

Painting by Kevin Vanhooser.

Here Today…

A few weeks ago Glenn Stout said that we won’t really feel Rivera’s absence for awhile. The void, that’s what will make it sting he said. And yesterday, as the game reached the seventh inning it hit me (again): Rivera is gone. Just when you get used to someone, poof. Maybe they are like Chipper Jones or Alex Rodriguez, a slow but sure decline, still playing but no longer great. Or like Mo, a quick injury and then…who knows?

Such was the case for our old pal Lance Berkman who sustained an ACL injury the other night. His career might be over.  I always enjoyed watching him play. He’s had a fine career.

Color By Numbers: To Homer, Or Not To Homer? Should That Be the Question?

Around this time last year, I took a look at the growing belief that the Yankees hit “too many home runs” and concluded there wasn’t much wisdom in that unconventional thought. However, following a recent period of offensive malaise, the same theme has popped up once again. So, let’s take another look.

Yankees’ Record in Homerless Games, Since 1918

Source: Baseball-reference.com

A fashionable statistic making the rounds this morning is the Yankees 0-8 record when the offense fails to hit a home run. Despite the very small sample, this still seems to be a very intriguing relationship, especially when you consider that in half of those games the Yankees only allowed four or fewer runs. What’s more, the team’s bottom-four and six of the bottom-10 games in terms of WPA (win probability added) also happen to come from among the eight they’ve played without hitting a home run. So, it seems as if the team’s offense has suffered from a feast or famine syndrome with the long ball. However, that doesn’t mean the problem is “too many home runs”.

Yankees’ 10 Lowest WPA Games, 2012

Source: Baseball-reference.com

So far this season, 91 of the Yankees’ 177 runs, or just over half, have come via the home run, which compares to 44% cumulatively between 1996 and 2011. Of course, it should also be noted that the Yankees’ current run/game average of 4.76 is almost three-quarters off the .5.48 rate posted from 1996 to 2011. In other words, the Yankees aren’t hitting too many home runs. They just aren’t scoring enough runs, which is mostly a byproduct of a recent dry spell with runners in scoring position (it wasn’t too long ago that the team was scoring at a historic pace).

Just as the Yankees have found it difficult to win when they don’t hit a home run, the team has had good success when its pitchers keep the ball in the ballpark. Unfortunately, there have only been seven such occasions, which is by far the lowest percentage of homerless games since at least 1918. With the exception of C.C. Sabathia, Yankees’ starters have given up more than their fair share of homers, which, in turn, has significantly mitigated the relative power advantage that the team usually enjoys. This is the real problem.

Percentage of Games in Which Yankees Have Not Allowed a Home Run, Since 1918

Source: Baseball-reference.com

It’s easy to understand why so many Yankees’ fans harp upon the team’s offense. Historically, the Bronx Bombers have been a team defined by the strength of its bats, so when the lineup underperforms those high expectations, it becomes easy to point the finger at the offense. Having said that, just because the offense hasn’t been a weakness doesn’t mean there isn’t reason for concern. Although the Yankees’ offense is still very strong when compared to the rest of the league, it might not be good enough to overcome the team’s underperforming rotation. That’s why the Yankees biggest concern shouldn’t be the number of home runs hit by its lineup, but instead the amount allowed by its starters.

I Wuz Framed

 

Dig this piece at by Jeff Sullivan at SB Nation on the infuriating Jose Molina.

 

[Photo Credit: Rob Carr/Getty Images; David Goldman/AP]

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"This ain't football. We do this every day."
--Earl Weaver