I was at Citifield on Saturday afternoon. The Mets were losing 7-1 then rallied to take a 9-7 lead. They went ahead against K Rod of all people.

Then,  in the 9th, they blew it. Went something like this:

The worst part was that K Rod got the win.

Knowing the Yankees’ traditional habit of bringing back old favorites for one more go-round, I would not be at all surprised if a former Yankee rejoins the team for a second stint before the August 31st deadline. The Oakland A’s have made Hideki Matsui available, especially now that he has cleared waivers; he can be traded to any team in either league. The A’s don’t want much: just some salary relief on a player who will leave at season’s end as a free agent, and perhaps a warm body from Single-A ball. If the Yankees end up reacquiring Matsui, they would make him the left-handed DH in a platoon with Andruw Jones, further cementing Jorge Posada’s status as a pinch-hitter and occasional starter at first base.

Matsui’s season numbers are not that impressive–a .738 OPS and a mere 11 home runs–but they are better than Posada’s and have also been on a major uptick of late. (Also, remember that Matsui has had to play half of his games in the barren hitter’s wasteland known as McAfee Coliseum.) Since the All-Star break, “Godzilla” has hit .385 with a .573 slugging percentage. If he can hit at even 75 per cent of that level over the final six weeks of the season, the Yankees would be ecstatic. They would also have a more dangerous DH available to them for the American League playoffs.

The last impression that Matsui left on Yankee fans was a hearty one: an MVP performance in the 2009 World Series. I, for one, would enjoy seeing an encore in 2011…

***

Another former Yankee happened to be in Cooperstown this week. Joe Torre spent three days here as part of Major League Baseball’s owners meetings. Now working as a vice president of MLB, Torre is handling umpire evaluations and doing his best to improve the performance of arbiters while improving their relations with the players.

Torre is also doing his best as an ambassador of the game. I witnessed first hand how Torre deals with the public. Two families of fans came up to him in the Otesaga Hotel and asked him to have their pictures taken with him. Torre did not bat an eye. Even as one man struggled to make his camera functional, Torre remained patient and gracious. He is one of the people in baseball who simply gets it. We need more like him.

We also need more like him in the Hall of Fame. That should happen in December of 2013, when Torre is next eligible for Hall voting as part of Expansion Era candidates being considered by the Veterans Committee. Now that Torre is retired from managing, he should have little trouble acquiring the 75 per cent of the vote needed for election.

Assuming that Torre makes it, he will go in on the strength of his managing with the Yankees. Any manager who has ever won at least three championships has been elected to the Hall upon retirement; with four titles, Torre has more than enough championship hardware to convince the electorate that he is deserving.

Yet, Torre’s candidacy does not rely solely on his managing. Voters can and should consider a man’s entire career in determining Hall of Fame worth. When you combine Torre’s four managerial championships with what he did as a player–a career average of .297 and an on-base percentage of .365, a 1971 batting title with the Cardinals, five seasons with 100-plus RBIs, and much of the damage done while playing the demanding positions of catcher and third base–it’s obvious that Torre deserves a plaque in Cooperstown.

If he is elected in 2013, then the summer of 2014 will be a fun one for Yankee fans in Cooperstown…

***

Reports of his demise were greatly exaggerated.

Those words would apply very well to Derek Jeter, who has lifted his average to a season-high .291. Right after his extraordinary 5-for-5 game that saw him reach the 3000-hit mark, Jeter fell into a brief slump. Some Internet writers who cannot contain their antipathy for all things Jeter and the Yankees absolutely reveled in his struggles. They treated the 5-for-5 game as a blip on the screen, acting as if Jeter’s subsequent problems were further proof that his days as a serviceable major league player had ended.

Jeter has been on a full-fledged tear since that mini-slump occurred, and though he’s still not the player he once was, a shortstop who can hit .290, reach base a respectable 35 per cent of the time, and run the bases like Jeter does have value. He’s still a better option at shortstop than the scatter-armed Eduardo Nunez or the hitless wonder that is Ramiro Pena.

Yet, some of those critical writers, especially those in the Sabermetric category, have gone quiet on the subject of Jeter. It is no longer convenient to talk about the future Hall of Famer, not when he is going well and again helping the Yankees win games. From them, we hear nothing but silence.

Bruce Markusen writes “Cooperstown Confidential” for The Hardball Times.

At the beginning of the year, many feared the Yankees were hitting “too many home runs”. According to the most often expressed concern, the team’s inability to play small ball would eventually prove costly in October (a myth disproven in an earlier CBN post). Well, those worried by the Yankees’ reliance on the long ball can rest easy now because the team’s offense has evolved into the most balanced in the American League.

Yankees’ A.L. Rankings in HRs and SBs, 1901-2011
 

Note: Yellow markers indicate years in which the Yankees led in both categories.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Over the years, the Yankees have been synonymous with power. In 37 of 110 seasons (not including the present), the Bronx Bombers have finished first in home runs, so it should come as no surprise that the 2011 team currently leads the league with 160. However, some might be shocked to know the Yankees’ 120 stolen bases are tied with the Kansas City Royals for the top spot (the team’s success rate of 76% is also tops in the A.L.).

The last time the Yankees led the league in steals was 1985, when Rickey Henderson set a then single season franchise record with 80 (Henderson would break his own record in 1986 and 1988). However, before that season, no Yankees’ ball club had finished first in steals since 1938, when the team set the pace with a relatively low accumulation of 91. In total, eight teams in franchise history have led the league in steals, which illustrates how much more the Yankees have relied on power.

Yankees’ Top-10 Seasons in Home Runs and Stolen Bases

Source: Baseball-reference.com

Although the 2011 Yankees are unlikely to approach the franchise records of 244 home runs (2009) and 288 stolen bases (1910), they could become only the fourth pinstripe squad to finish first in both categories (the only other A.L. franchise to accomplish that feat was the 1995 Cleveland Indians). Once again, you have to go all the back to the 1930s to find a Yankees’ team that displayed preeminence in both power and speed. In fact, all three dual first place rankings occurred during that decade, although it should be noted that the leading totals were relatively low because the era deemphasized the stolen base.

American League Category Leaders by Franchise, 1901-2011

Note: Rankings for each category do not total 110 season because of ties. Teams listed in order of most cumulative category leading finishes.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Not surprisingly, the Yankees led the league in runs during each season in which they also finished first in home runs and stolen bases. The same trend also holds this season. Despite all of the publicity given to the Red Sox offense, the Yankees are the team that leads the American League in runs scored (albeit by only three). If they can hold onto that margin, it would give the Yankees the top spot in runs for the 31st time in franchise history, and the fifth time in six years, a level of dominance surpassed only by the 1926-1933 lineups, which outscored the league in seven of eight seasons.

Using the long ball and small ball, the Yankees’ offense has proven to be one of the most dynamic in franchise history. Only five other teams in club history have scored more runs relative to the league average, so the lineup’s diversification has clearly paid dividends. As a result, the Bronx Bombers’ bats have left little reason for concern, which only means Yankees’ fans will now have to find something else about which to worry.

Boom.

Greetings, Banterers. The Yankees moved into first place in the AL East tonight – for now –  in a sloppy 9-7 win over the Royals that didn’t relly make anyone except Robinson Cano look good. Ivan Nova didn’t have it, but neither did the Royals pitchers, and Cano’s mega-homer in the interminable fourth inning was the difference. Nova gave up all seven of those runs in 5 and a third,  and while one might hope that nine runs would be enough for an easy victory, this was tighter than it should’ve been. Nova’s exceeded expectations enough that I’m willing to spot him a few, however, and KC pitcher Danny Duffy (who has a fantastic mlb.com profile photo, by the way) gave up eight in just three, so maybe it was one of those something-in-the-water games.

Ned Yost  got ejected arguing balls and strikes on Duffy’s behalf in that fourth inning, but Cano hit his monster shot immediately afterwards to cap off a great 12-pitch battle, so apparently getting tossed didn’t have quite the fire-up-the-troops effect Yost was going for. Though again, it was a great at-bat from Cano, and Duffy hardly disgraced himself although things did not exactly go his way.

Also coming through for New York were Derek Jeter (now up to .283 and OBPing .344, though with no slugging percentage to speak of), Mark Teixeira, Russell Martin and Brett Gardner; the bullpen quartet of Boone Logan, Rafael Soriano, Dave Robertson, and Mo, who seems to be just fine, thankyouverymuch.

I’d be shocked if the Red Sox didn’t take the lead back at least once or twice, and frankly surprised if they didn’t end up with it, given the eyebrow-raising nature of the Yanks’ rotation. But hey, it’s gotten them this far. Starting tomorrow: the Incredible Colon.

Over at ESPN, Jonah Keri writes about six teams you don’t want to face in the playoffs.

[Photo Credit: USA Today]

Although it often seems otherwise, Mariano Rivera is not perfect. During his career, the future Hall of Famer has been tagged with 65 blown saves and 57 losses, so there are plenty of examples available to refute the notion of his infallibility. And yet, when he doesn’t come through, it still seems like a fluke. Such was the case on two occasions this past week.

Mariano Rivera’s Save Percentage, by Team

Note: NL entry includes three saves and one blown save against Brewers when they were part of the AL.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

On Sunday night, Rivera suffered his fifth blown save of the season against the Red Sox, the team against which he has by far the most. Considering Boston’s power-packed lineup, it’s easy to see how even the great Rivera might slip up, but what made Sunday’s blown save most frustrating was the chief antagonist: light-hitting Marco Scutaro.

Walk Off Home Runs Against Mariano Rivera

Source: baseball-reference.com

Then again, maybe Scutaro’s lead off double, which led to the blown save, shouldn’t have come as that much of a surprise? After all, the journeyman infielder owns one of only five walk off homeruns surrendered by Rivera. What’s more, Scutaro’s double on Sunday was his second against Rivera, giving him three extra base hits against the great closer in only 18 plate appearances.

Batters with at Least Three Extra Base Hits vs. Mariano Rivera

Source: baseball-reference.com

How significant is Scutaro’s relative success against Rivera? Over the course of his career, Rivera has faced 920 different batters, and of that total, only eight have recorded at least three extra base hits. For further perspective, 469 hitters, or 51%, failed to even record one hit, including teammate Dustin Pedroia, who has gone 0-10 in 13 plate appearances against Rivera. Finally, Scutaro’s .896 OPS against Rivera ranks 28th among the 156 hitters with at least 10 plate appearances versus the future Hall of Famer.

Most PAs Without a Hit vs. Mariano Rivera

Source: baseball-reference.com

After failing to close out a win in Fenway, Rivera’s next game ended in a loss to the Los Angeles Angels. This time, the culprit was Bobby Abreu and the damage was a rare home run, which broke a 4-4 tie. Since 1995, Rivera’s HR rate of 0.44 per nine innings is the lowest of any reliever with at least 275 innings, so when he falters because of the long ball, it’s even more startling. However, the gopher ball surrendered to Bobby Abreu was even more remarkable because the struggling DH entered the game with only four home runs. When you consider that Abreu had already hit his fifth earlier in the game, the chances of him going deep again, against Rivera no less, had to be slim, but when the Yankees’ closer gives it up, it often feels like a long shot coming through.

Lowest HR/9 Rates, Relievers Since 1995 (min. 275 IP)

Source: fangraphs.com

Since he first emerged as a dominant force in the 1995 ALDS against the Mariners, Mariano Rivera’s successes have far surpassed his failures, which, ironically, is why the latter seem to better define his greatness. When Rivera blows a game, it inspires shock. When he blows two-in-a-row, it induces panic…in everyone but Rivera himself. Perhaps that’s why Mariano has had only one stretch of three straight games with either a blown save or loss (August 1997)? So, let the Chicken Littles have their say. You can’t blame them for thinking the sky is falling. In fact, it’s a testament to the greatest closer of all time.

Over at BP, the staff looks at the 12 of their favorite basebrawls. Here’s a Yankee classic from Jay Jaffe:

1) Armando Benitez vs. Tino Martinez and the Yankees
At 28-9, the 1998 Yankees had already shown that they were in the business of kicking ass and taking names when the Orioles came to town having lost five straight games to push them under .500. The O’s were on track to snap their streak with a 5-3 lead in the eighth inning when the Yankees drew two walks while making two outs against tiring O’s starter Sidney Ponson and reliever Alan Mills. A Paul O’Neill single off Norm Charlton cut the lead to 5-4 when Benitez, the Orioles’ imposing but immature closer, was summoned for a four-out save. Instead, he served up a three-run homer to Bernie Williams to give the Yankees a 7-5 lead, then blatantly plunked Tino Martinez between the shoulder blades with a 90-something MPH fastball on his next pitch. “That was a real cheap shot,” said Yankees broadcaster Jim Kaat.

Martinez jawed at Benitez on the way down to first base, and the 6-foot-4 reliever dropped his glove. Both benches and bullpens emptied, and things escalated when Yankees’ lefty reliever Graeme Lloyd—a 6-foot-8 Australian native my friends and I called “The Big Dingo”—came charging out of the bullpen and grabbed Benitez’s chin before throwing a few wild punches with fellow Yankee reliever Jeff Nelson joining the fray. Benitez connected on a blow to the back of Lloyd’s neck as he retreated from the mound into foul territory. As he neared the dugout, he squared off with Scott Brosius, who threw no punches but captured his attention while Darryl Strawberry rolled up behind and connected on a sucker punch to Benitez’s head before pushing him into the Oriole dugout. Strawberry was restrained by multiple Orioles at the edge of the dugout, but amazingly enough, the two would square off again minutes later after Mills punched Strawberry while an irate Martinez kept making his way towards Benitez. The second time, Stawberry’s blow was more glancing, and his momentum carried him into the dugout where Eddie Murray and Cal Ripken tried to calm him down. Ultimately, it took around 15 minutes before order was restored and play resumed.

“This is like one of those hockey brawls where the umpires have to figure out who stays and who goes,” said Yankees broadcaster (and former Oriole) Ken Singleton. “To a man, the Orioles refused to muster even feigned support for Benitez,” wrote Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci. “The action of ‘I’ll hurt you if I can’t beat you’ totally misrepresents the Baltimore Orioles’ tradition of good play and sportsmanship,” said manager Ray Miller in apologizing to the Yankees. Benitez drew an eight-game suspension while Strawberry and Lloyd (three games) and Mills and Nelson (two games) received suspensions as well. The Yankees went on to win 114 regular season games and the World Series while the Orioles were swept by the Yankees en route to a nine-game losing streak. They haven’t had a winning season since. —Jay Jaffe

[Photo Credit: N.Y. Daily News]

While the Yankees ponder their sudden abundance of starting pitchers, they continue to look at left-handed relief pitching options. Boone Logan has been a season-long adventure (at least prior to his clutch bases-loaded strikeout of Adrian Gonzalez on Friday night) prompting the Yankees to sign J.C. Romero to a minor league contract. Romero has pitched reasonably well at Scranton, but not well enough to earn a promotion–at least not yet.

So now there’s talk that the Yankees may look at 41-year-old Arthur Lee Rhodes, who was recently designated for assignment by the Rangers. After three spectacular seasons in the National League, the ageless Rhodes (who seems to have been around since the hula hoop), has struggled in a set-up role in Texas. But his numbers against left-handed hitters are good; he has held lefties to a .216 batting average in 2011.

Then again, the Yankees might stay in-house and turn to one of their cherished minor league prospects. Manny Banuelos, who struck out eight in his Triple-A debut this week, could be called upon to take Logan’s place as the lefty specialist. Banuelos is clearly not ready to start in the major leagues, but pitching as a spot reliever is a far simpler task. Banuelos would also have the advantage of working against major league hitters who have not seen him face-to-face, except for a possible spring training appearance.

Right now, I’d be willing to look at either Banuelos, Rhodes, or Romero, either as the lone lefty specialist or as a supplement to Logan. Unlike Logan, they have the kinds of deliveries that are deceptive for left-handed hitters to pick up. Rhodes and Romero also have much longer track records of success than Logan. It’s something to think about…

***

It didn’t receive much attention amidst all of the Ubaldo Jimenez and Wandy Rodriguez rumors, but the Yankees actually came close to making a lesser deal that would have changed the configuration of the 25-man roster. According to a New York Post report, the Yankees almost traded backup catcher Francisco Cervelli to the Pirates for minor league pitcher Brad Lincoln. (Lincoln, 26, pitched well in his lone start for the Pirates, but was sent back to Triple-A Indianapolis because of the dreaded numbers game.) The Yankees would then have called up Jesus Montero from Scranton/Wilkes Barre to serve as the No. 2 receiver.

That the Yankees even discussed trading Cervelli shows that management is not blind to his general incompetence. There are clearly those in the organization who want him gone and simultaneously want Montero in the major leagues. Given such sentiment, I would not be surprised if Cervelli is traded or waived before the end of August, clearing the way for the Yankees to have a backup catcher who can actually do something.

The status of the No. 2 catcher, whoever it turns out to be, should have little impact on the playing time of the first-string receiver, Russell Martin. Though Martin’s hitting has cooled off since May, he has been a revelation behind the plate. He blocks everything in sight, throws out runners with regularity, and has good working relationships with all of the pitchers, whether it’s a veteran like CC Sabathia or a novice like Ivan Nova. He’s the best defensive catcher the Yankees have had since the late 1980s, when Joel Skinner wore the pinstripes. For those who never saw him play, Skinner was a brilliant defensive catcher who had it all: agility, arm strength, and the smarts required of a catcher. Unfortunately, he couldn’t hit for either average or power, and spent most of his career as a part-time player.

In contrast to Skinner, Martin has some power, draws walks, and can steal a base. He’s not a strong offensive player, but he is a helper, and a man whose playing time is more than justified by his defensive skills. The more that Martin plays down the stretch, the better off the Yankees will be…

***

On Thursday, Martin caught Nova’s gem at Cellular Field: a stint of seven and two-thirds innings, one run allowed, and ten strikeouts. Not only was it Nova’s best start of the season, but it continues a stretch that has seen him post a 2.92 ERA over his last eight starts. The Yankees would be INSANE–in a “Crazy Eddie” kind of way–to send the young right-hander back to Triple-A. At the very least, Nova has earned the right to pitch in relief; at the most, he should be kept in the rotation while A.J. Burnett is put in temporary hiding in the bullpen.

Plain and simple, Nova deserves to be on the major league pitching staff. With his sinking fastball, overhand curve, and improving control, Nova has all the requisites to be a very good No. 3 starter. He is clearly one of the 12 best pitchers the Yankees have right now, if not one of the six best pitchers. By keeping Nova right where he is, the Yankees would be sending a positive message to all players in their system: that performance, and not contract status or reputation, will ultimately determine who stays and who goes. That is the way that good organizations run things.

With Nova joining Sabathia, Bartolo Colon, Phil Hughes, and Freddy Garcia, the Yankees have a capable starting rotation that offers a nice mix of youth and age. By putting Burnett in the bullpen, the Yankees finally send him the message that his performance needs to get better. They also maintain a fallback in case Hughes reverts back to his early season lack of form.

Ultimately, I don’t think it will happen, largely because Joe Girardi doesn’t like to offend his veteran players. But putting Burnett in the bullpen and keeping Nova in the rotation would be the correct thing to do.

The Yankees entered the weekend series at Fenway Park hoping to finally earn a win against the Red Sox, but when Joe Girardi made a slow stroll to the mound in the fifth, it seemed like another loss to Boston was inevitable. With the bases loaded and Adrian Gonzalez coming to the plate, Girardi decided to lift Bartolo Colon and bring in the much maligned Boone Logan. The entire Yankees’ Universe held its breath, but three pitches later, it was time to exhale. After getting ahead with a fastball, Logan induced the MVP front runner into swinging through two sliders. The crisis was averted and the Yankees lived to fight another inning.

Perhaps inspired byLogan’s heroics, the Yankees immediately went on the attack against Jon Lester, who entered the sixth inning having allowed only two walks and two hits. Four batters into the inning, however, the Yankees not only had a run, but a bases loaded threat of their own. With the game in the balance, Lester and Robinson Cano engaged in a classic confrontation, and on the ninth pitch, the Red Sox lefty got the double play he needed. Despite tying the game, Cano’s twin killing was a big let down, but before the disappointment could sink in, Nick Swisher lined an RBI double down the left field line that put the Yankees on top 3-2

Over the final four innings of the game, five Yankees’ relievers combined to shutdown the Boston lineup on only two hits. Included in the effort was a clean frame from Rafael Soriano, the third 1-2-3 inning recorded by the enigmatic reliever since returning from the disabled list. How significant was Soriano’s seventh inning performance? Before retiring the Red Sox in order, the right hander had only registered one clean frame in a game in which the Yankees didn’t have a 10-run lead…and it came on Opening Day.

Although the bullpen’s well rounded contribution was certainly a positive, the Yankees were probably hoping they wouldn’t have to use so much of it. Having C.C. Sabathia on the mound tomorrow mitigates some of the concern about a having a depleted relief corps, but the bigger disappointment revolves around Colon. Come October, the Yankees will need the rejuvenated right hander to pull his weight, but after tonight’s abbreviated start against Boston, the lingering questions about his playoff viability will likely persist.

Because both teams enjoy a comfortable lead over the other American League wild card contenders, the focus of this weekend series has been more about determining if the Yankees can beat the Red Sox than who will win the division. By drawing first blood, the Yankees made progress toward both ends, but messages aren’t sent in one game. That’s what the next eight are for.

The Yankees and Red Sox enter this weekend’s showdown at Fenway Park neck and neck in the pennant race, but media coverage of each team might lead you to believe Boston is way ahead. Considering consensus expectations before the season, this divergence between perception and reality is understandable.  However, the more you look inside the numbers, the more it seems as if the Yankees are the better team.

Tale of the Tape: Yankees vs. Red Sox

Note: WAR calculations are an average of fangraphs’ and b-r.com’s versions. Data as of August 3, 2011
Source: fangraphs.com and baseball-reference.com

Since their slow start, the Red Sox have been looked upon as an offensive juggernaut. In this case, the perception is dead on. The Boston lineup currently has four members on pace to produce over 6 bWAR, which, if accomplished, would match only the 1902 Pittsburgh Pirates for the most ever. What’s more, the Red Sox dominance extends well beyond their four best hitters. As a group, the offense has scored 5.5 runs per game, which, compared to the American League average of 4.36, represents a historic level of production. If maintained over the final two months of the season, the Red Sox’ current 26.2% run premium over the league average would not only rank as the second highest total in franchise history, but also stand as the 13th best total in the majors since 1901.

Coming into the season, the Yankees were the team most expected to dominate with their offense, and, for the most part, they have. Although the Red Sox offense has rated a notch better by most metrics, the two teams are relatively close in runs scored. As a result, the Yankees can also boast an offense that is outscoring the league at historic levels. The Bronx Bombers’ 23.6% premium over the league ranks seventh in franchise history and just inside the all-time top-30.

Despite the potentcy of the Yankees’ offense, the real strength of the team has, ironically, been its pitching. Entering the season, no one could have (or should have) predicted that the Yankees would enter August leading the league in ERA+, but the team’s current rate easily outdistances the second ranked Rangers. From a historical standpoint, the Yankees’ ERA+ of 123 is also at its highest level since the strike shortened season of 1981.

Yankees Historical ERA+ and OPS+, 1961 to 2011

Source: Baseball-reference.com

Because the Yankees have been extremely good at both scoring and preventing runs, it should be no surprise that the team’s per-game run differential of 1.5 leads all of baseball (the Red Sox are second at 1.3). However, the 2011 Yankees’ ability to outscore their opponents is more than just unrivaled in the present. Since 1901, only 36 other teams have posted a higher per-game run differential, including 12 Yankees clubs from the past (the 1939 team’s 2.7 per-game advantage is the highest total in baseball history).

Yankees Historical Run Differential, 1901 to 2011

Data as of August 3, 2011
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Considering the Yankees’ comparative aggregate advantage over the Red Sox, they, not Boston, should probably be perceived as the favorite in the A.L. East. However, at this to this point, the sum hasn’t been equal to parts. Entering the weekend’s action, the Yankees have underperformed their expected record (also know as the Pythagorean winning percentage) by four games. That might not seem like much, but the Yankees’ current Pythagorean deficit ranks as the eight “highest” in franchise history and within the “top” 10% of all teams since 1901.

Yankees’ Historical Pythagorean Surplus/Deficit, 1901 to 2011

Data as of August 3, 2011
Source: Baseball-reference.com

The Red Sox’ current and expected win totals are in line, so perhaps Boston’s relative efficiency is another reason why it seems like they are having a better season? This dynamic is manifested in the Red Sox’ league-leading winning percentage in games decided by two or fewer runs. Meanwhile, the Yankees are under .500 in these games, which, perhaps more than anything, has left the impression the team has underperformed. However, a more optimistic person might regard this as a positive sign, especially when you consider how infrequently the Yankees find themselves on the wrong side of a lopsided defeat.

A.L. Records in Games Decided by “Two or Fewer” and “Three or More Runs”

Note: Close games defined as those decided by two or fewer runs. Data as of August 3, 2011
Source: Baseball-reference.com

If the season series hadn’t been so one-sided in favor of the Red Sox (for a yearly rivalry breakdown, click here), the Yankees might be marching into Fenway Park with a comfortable lead.  Instead, they’ll have to settle for flat-footed tie. Considering the two teams have been within three games of each other in the standings since May 13, it’s unlikely that the pennant will be decided this weekend. However, if the Yankees hope to turn the tables on Boston, just as they did in 2009, there is no margin for error. In other words, it’s time for the Yankees to give the Red Sox a first hand look at what they’ve been doing to the rest of the league for the entire season.

A.L. East Division Race, Game-by-Game Progression

Note: Negative numbers represent games out of first place; positive numbers represent games ahead.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Over at ESPN, Howard Bryant writes about the unfairness of trading prospects for stars:

In San Diego, one of the great robberies (an inside job, really) in recent baseball history took place in the Gonzalez deal this past offseason. The Padres, who missed the playoffs on the last day of the 2010 season, dealt their best player to the Red Sox even though he was under contract for another year. Instead of selling their fans in 2011 on the optimism of 2010’s great 90-win season, playoff appearances in 2005 and 2006 and a thrilling one-game playoff in 2007, San Diego folded, giving Gonzalez to the Red Sox for first-round picks Casey Kelly (a pitcher) and Reymond Fuentes (an outfielder), along with Anthony Rizzo, a first baseman. Remember, the Padres were an afternoon away from the playoffs, then traded their best player and received nothing in return to help them win this season or probably next. Rizzo has appeared in 35 games for San Diego this season, and he’s hitting .143.

The Red Sox didn’t part with any of their big league players in the deal. Not Jacoby Ellsbury, not Clay Buchholz, not Josh Reddick. Both Kelly and Fuentes have potential–Kelly is 21, Fuentes is 20–but neither is yet in Triple-A. Much space exists between Class A Lake Elsinore and Petco Park.

So as the Red Sox win, the Padres sold their fans a future that is at best cloudy and at worst illusory. Each day the Red Sox benefit from Gonzalez while the Padres wait for Kelly and Fuentes to reach the big leagues underscores the need for San Diego’s front office to have acquired big league talent that, at least, would have sent the message to fans that every year is next year.

Over at Baseball Prospectus, Sam Miller has a fun piece about Error Faces.

Check it out.

[Photo Credit: N.Y. Daily News]

It was a close game so I wasn’t rooting for Adam Dunn to get a big hit last night. But I couldn’t help but feel for the guy. As Mark Gonzalez writes in the Chicago Tribune, there is no place for Dunn to hide. Man, it’s tough to see a talented guy so lost.

[Photo Credit: Fox Sports]

During the winter, Freddy Garcia’s signing was looked upon as a stop gap measure intended to tide the Yankees over until reinforcements could be acquired in the summer. However, when the clock struck 4:00 PM, all was quiet on the trade front, meaning the veteran right hander will now be counted upon to help the Yankees reach the finish line. If Garcia continues to pitch as well as he did today, the Yankees should be just fine.

Leading up to the trade deadline, which passed during the eighth inning, there had been a lot of speculation about the Yankees acquiring another pitcher. However, lost amid the trade talk was the fact that the Yankees currently lead the American League in ERA+, and a big part of that has been Freddy Garcia. In fact, by limiting the Orioles to two runs over six innings, the soft tossing right hander recorded his 14th quality start, and eighth in his last ninth games. Along with fellow veteran retread Bartolo Colon, Garcia has not only helped hold down the fort, but lessened the need for reinforcements.

Garcia’s quality outing was not only a symbolic comfort for the Yankees, but a vital part of winning the series finale against the Orioles. One day after scoring a combined 25 runs in a doubleheader sweep, the Yankees’ bats were a little sluggish in the early going. Over the first three innings, the Bronx Bombers squandered two bases loaded opportunities, but the third time proved to be a charm in the fourth. After Eric Chavez walked to lead off the frame, Russell Martin hit a routine groundball right at Baltimore shortstop J.J. Hardy. It should have been Martin’s 16th double play of the season, but instead, the ball rolled under Hardy’s glove and set the stage for Brett Gardner’s bases clearing triple two batters later.

The Yankees wound up scoring four runs in the fourth, but they also lost their shortstop. One inning earlier, Derek Jeter was struck on the right hand by a pitch from Jake Arieta, but only when his next at bat rolled around was he forced to exit the game. Because of a lack depth on the bench, Francisco Cervelli was sent to play second base for the first time in his professional career, which must have had Brian Cashman reaching for his phone, if only for a moment. However, X-rays on Jeter’s finger were negative, and the Yankees dodged a bullet (also known as Eduardo Nunez’ throwing arm).

Following the four run outburst, the Yankees’ offense went dormant, but the combination of Garcia and three relievers was more than enough to lock down the game. In particular, David Robertson was summoned with two outs in the seventh to retire Hardy, who came to the plate as the tying run. Then, as an encore, Robertson plowed through the middle of the Orioles lineup in the eighth by striking out the side. All that was left was for Mariano Rivera to polish off the game and the homestand, which the Yankees finished at 7-3.

On July 28th, the St. Petersburg Times had nine journalists write about a game between the Yankees and Rays:

FIFTH INNING

Meter tells a story that the box score doesn’t

ST. PETERSBURG — In his taxi parked outside the stadium, Steven “Sven” Erikson cautiously admitted that he is not a big Rays fan. He followed the game on his laptop so he’d have something to talk about with his fares afterward.

In his 60 years, Erikson said he has been a wrangler in Colorado, sold men’s clothing in New York City, attended seminary in Pennsylvania and worked as a financial planner in Michigan. Tired of corporate culture, he moved to Treasure Island a couple of years ago and got a job driving a cab.

Some fans are giddy after a win, or despondent after a loss. Some drink too much and can barely remember where they live. A few offer an opinion on the Rays’ stadium debate. In the first inning, a woman who forgot to lock her car hired Erikson to drive her a mile to where she parked. She didn’t like the $5.80 fare and tipped him 20 cents.

Back in line, the Rays put two men on before Longoria hit it deep to center where Curtis Granderson snagged the ball at the wall.

The Yankees fans he drove home never mentioned it.

Chris Zuppa, Times staff writer

Most cool.

Robinson Cano has always had one of the sweetest swings in the big leagues. Even as a rookie, he was often compared to seven-time batting champion Rod Carew, but a lack of plate discipline always prevented him from reaching his full potential. In 2010, however, Cano finally put it all together. Or so it seemed. A year after establishing himself as one of the top position players in all of baseball, Cano has again taken a step back. This year, he barely ranks among the game’s best second basemen.

Top-10 Second basemen, Ranked by Average WAR

Note: AvgWAR = bWAR + fWAR/2
Source: baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com

The most noticeable area in which Cano has regressed is plate discipline. In 2010, the free swinging second baseman worked a walk in 8.2% of his plate appearances, but this season, he has returned to a rate of 4.5%. Although it should be noted that 14 of his career-high 57 walks in 2010 were intentional (this year he has only received four), Cano’s overall approach in 2011 has reverted back to a relative lack of selectivity, which in turn has seemingly resulted in less production.

Looking at Cano’s plate discipline statistics can be a bit misleading. For example, in 2010, when he had his best season and highest walk rate, the All Star second baseman also swung at what was then a career-high percentage of pitches out of the strike zone. For that reason, it’s hard to confidently blame his 2011 regression on this year’s rate, which at 39.8% is even higher than last year’s. However, maybe, the issue isn’t that Cano is swinging at too many pitches out of the zone, but the count in which he is doing it?

Robinson Cano’s Plate Discipline Breakdown, 2005-2011

O-Swing%= pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone; Z-Swing% = pitches a batter swings at inside the strike zone; O-Contact% =  times a batter makes contact when swinging at pitches outside the strike zone; Z-Contact% = times a batter makes contact when swinging at pitches inside the strike zone; Zone% = pitches seen inside the strike zone.
Source: fangraphs.com

What jumps out most from Cano’s 2011 count-based splits is how poorly he has performed when he should be in the driver’s seat. In 134 plate appearances with the pitcher in a hole, Cano has only managed a very pedestrian line of .304/.403/.530, which equates to a situational OPS that is 5% below average. This level of underperformance is even more dramatic when you consider extreme hitter’s counts, such as after working the count to 3-0 and 3-1. In such instances, Cano has posted a sOPS+ (OPS relative to league average in the split) of 72 and -3 (!), respectively. For comparison, Cano’s 2010 sOPS+ in those counts were 109 and 137.

Robinson Cano’s Splits by Count, 2010 vs. 2011

Note: The baseline for OPS+ is 100. For example, a score of 105 is considered to be 5% above average.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

In just about every count favoring the batter, Cano has underperformed last year’s output, in some instances by a dramatic margin. In fact, the All Star second baseman rates below average after working his way into every hitter’s count but 1-0 and 3-2. On the flip side, Cano has remained well above average in every pitcher’s count but 0-1. Considering his ability to make good contact on pitches off the plate, the latter isn’t much of surprise. However, Cano’s significant decline in hitter’s counts is certainly perplexing.

Based on the data above, Cano’s troubles haven’t resulted from an inability to work the count. Rather, things have gone awry once he has reached a favorable position. Without access to more granular plate discipline data, it’s hard to explain why this might be. After all, a hitter with Cano’s ability should feast on pitchers who have to throw him a strike, just as he did in 2010. However, based on observation (which, admittedly, is inherently flawed), it seems as if pitchers have been reticent to challenge Cano when behind in the count. One reason for this development could be Cano’s own reptutation, which was greatly enhanced by his MVP-caliber 2010 campaign, although the relative weakness of the hitters batting behind him in 2011 probably hasn’t helped (Yankees’ sixth place batters have hit .219/.317/.344). Whatever the reason, pitchers now seem more than happy to walk Cano. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been as willing to take it.

In order to return to the more prolific output of 2010, Cano will need to once again refine his approach at that plate. Otherwise, the Yankees will have to settle for a more muted level of production from their second baseman. Although the current incarnation of Cano is not a bad consolation prize, 2010 proved that he can be even better. Cano still has the sweet swing of Carew, but, like the Hall of Famer, can he develop more patience?

Michael Cuddyer of the Twins has a flickr page. Check out his pictures.

The trade deadline is on Sunday and the place it be, if you are not plugged in to Twitter, is MLB Trade Rumors and Hardball Talk. They’ll keep you up-to-date on all the scuttlebutt.

Think the Yanks will make a move? Maybe for a reliever or a bat? Will they get crazy and trade for a starting pitcher? There haven’t been any major rumblings but that doesn’t mean something won’t happen.

[Photo Credit: Dr John 2005]

There are a ton of baseball blogs but few that are truly original. Josh Wilker’s Cardboard Gods is one, Batgirl’s old Twins blog was another. And then there is Flip Flop Fly Ball, by the British graphic artist Craig Robinson. Craig’s site has been a wonder for years but now he’s published his first book, a must-have for any baseball fan. I recently had a chance to rap with Craig about the book, his site, and baseball.

Dig:

Bronx Banter: You are from England and yet you have a great love for baseball. What are your first memories of the game?

Craig Robinson: I guess the first memories were from movies. You might not notice it in the States, but to us non-Americans, baseball is noticeable because it is referenced so often. Players will be mentioned, TV screens will be showing games, baseball terminology is used. As for an actual first memory, it was being on the subway from Midtown up to the Bronx, being surrounded by pinstripes and blue caps; the atmosphere outside of the ground along River Avenue, and once inside the ground being a bit perplexed by the national anthem being played. (In British soccer, the anthem is only ever played at international games and at the FA Cup Final.) I went with a couple of NY-based colleagues, and as soon as the game began, I was peppering them with questions. My biggest memory, though, was being amazed at how fast the pitchers were throwing.

BB: Which baseball movies did you see?

CR: My favorite is “Sugar.” Really loved that movie. “Pride of the Yankees,” “The Sandlot,” “Bang the Drum Slowly,” “Field of Dreams,” “The Rookie”. They all tend to at some point find their way onto my screen when I’m tired and hung over on a Sunday. The baseball references I remember most are from Seinfeld, actually. Keith Hernandez spitting, Joe DiMaggio dunking his donuts, and George Steinbrenner in general.

BB:  Oh, man. So what did you learn about American culture from them?

CR: I think the movie references just show how ingrained the sport is in American life. And on a personal level, the sentimental talk of fathers and sons is something I can never recapture. I missed out on that because my parents fucked without contraception on an island on the other side of the Atlantic. And, although this doesn’t really answer the question, I’ve learned a lot about American people because of baseball. Without doing any real research, I imagine there’s been a love/hate relationship with Americans since soldiers were stationed in the UK during the Second World War. All my life, Americans have often been portrayed as fat tourists in check pants mispronouncing London landmarks. And in recent years as a bully throwing its weight around in the world. And I feel there’s a level of anti-Americanism in Europe. The great thing that baseball has given me is the chance to talk to people from outside of New York. The first non-Yankee or Met game I went to was in Philadelphia, and on the subway platform, I asked a guy if I was on the right side to go to the ballpark. We got chatting, he gave me a can of beer in a brown paper bag, and we had a great conversation all the way to Citizens Bank Park. I’ve had nothing but good experiences with American people in their cities. When they wish me a good time in their city, state, country, they really sound like they mean it, and I absolutely adore that.

BB: Don’t British boys have a father-son connection through soccer or ruby, boxing or cricket?

CR: I guess some must do, yes. Nobody in my family was that interested in sport. Yes, we’d kick a football around, but it wasn’t any passing on of knowledge or anything like that.

BB: Did you follow or play cricket as a kid?

CR: I was terrible at cricket. Couldn’t do the bowling action smoothly at all. It was all soccer for me. I mean, we had to play soccer, cricket, and rugby at school, but I never cared for cricket or rugby. Since the new 20Twenty format came about, though, I’ve gotten a tiny bit more enjoyment out of watching it.

BB: Was baseball made fun of when you were growing up as the men’s version of rounders?

CR: Yes. There wasn’t even the “men’s version of” at the start, a lot of British people simply refer to it as “bloody rounders.” And I quite likely did that, too. I don’t want to generalize too much, or do my countrymen down, but when it comes to American sports, we tend to be quite snobby about it. As soon as the topic comes up, someone will mention the amount of commercial breaks. And fail to see the irony that the sports we watch feature uniforms with advertising on the front. I mainly think, though, that the time difference makes it hard for British people to get into American sports. It takes a willingness to give it a go, and then a willingness to stay up til gone midnight on a Sunday to watch a football game.

BB: What is it about baseball that you found attractive?

CR: The aesthetics plays a big part. I love the uniforms and the ballparks. I love that it’s so simple: whites at home, grays on the road. I love that the game is orderly for the most part. Pitcher throws ball, batter tries to hit ball, fielder catches or throws the ball, while the batter runs. The elegance of a good double play is pretty much my favorite thing in sports. This is also where the Yankee fan in me comes out, but I love how simple both the uniforms are. They’re beautifully elegant. I love that they look like gentlemen in their uniforms, wearing long trousers; not looking like overgrown children in shorts. I love the lack of advertising on the uniforms. The unique ballparks are such a joy, too. It amuses me to think of future civilizations who discover ancient baseball fields and texts, how they’ll be baffled that a game with such a dizzying amount of statistics, everything measured perfectly is played in parks which are of different dimensions. And the aesthetics inherent in the game’s strong ties to its past. Almost from the off, I could read as much about Gehrig or Mantle as I could about Cano or Jeter.

BB: Other than the uniforms, why the Yankees?

CR: Really, it shouldn’t have been that way. It was an accident of the schedule that they, not the Mets were at home when I was on my trip to NY in 2005. And to come to the game fresh and root for the biggest, most successful team is, I can see, kind of crass. I can try and justify it in many ways. As a European living six hours ahead of Eastern Time, it would’ve had to have been an East Coast team; it would’ve had to have been in a city where I would want to repeatedly visit. But most of all, it’s simply that I fell in love with baseball that night, and on that night, baseball was Yankee Stadium and the Yankees.

BB: Did you ever watch a game before you went to Yankee Stadium?

CR: Only on TV. That was what prompted me to go to a game. I was in NY on business, so caught a few innings here and there of Yankee and Met games on TV. It made no sense, the commentators made no sense, but I was intrigued enough to want to find out what was going on. The first game I saw live was July 27, 2005. Twins 7, Yankees 3. Johan Santana got the win, Al Leiter the loss.

BB: When you started watching games and learning the rules how did you teach yourself what was going on?

CR: I kept notes, and this is how the site started, really, made maps and charts, just to remember things like which teams were where, and where they used to be. It sounds silly, but playing MLB: The Show on the PSP helped a lot too. I had no opportunity to learn the rules by playing the game, but playing a video game version was a decent substitute. Even then, it took me about six months to realize runners had to tag up on sac flies!

BB: Do the numbers, the stats, appeal to you at all?

CR: Not particularly, it just was something that had to learn about to be able to properly appreciate players, and I enjoyed learning about statistics. I’m not really deep into it, I pick and choose what I want to read. I mean, obviously I don’t care about wins, saves, or RBIs particularly. But I’d say I only really look at 10% of what Fan Graphs does.

BB: Can you talk about your interest in the visual arts? What led to your career as a graphic designer? Did you read comics growing up, Judge Dredd and all that?

CR: This is where the father-son connection comes in. My dad was an architect. He wasn’t Frank Lloyd Wright or anything, but he did pottery and even some string art and macramé as hobbies (it was, of course, the 1970s). I always enjoyed drawing as a kid, did a lot of it at school, and then went to art school to study three-dimensional design and university to study jewelrey. I think the things I learned from education were incidental, and mostly, I learned what I didn’t want to do. It was only when, as a working man, I continued drawing, making sketchbooks, and early computer drawings that I realized the greatest talent I have is to kinda do fun stuff. I would love to be Mark Rothko or Yves Klein, but my brain doesn’t work that way. And it was doing the fun, silly stuff in the early days of flipflopflyin.com that lead to me getting a couple of freelance jobs, and then moving to Berlin to work for a web design company. When I left there, I continued freelance illustrating. And still do. I was never really that big into comics. The only ones I read regularly were The Beano when I was pre-teen, and as a teenager, Oink! and Viz.

BB: The sense of fun is integral to your work. Were you a big fan of comedy? Did your father hip you to the Pythons, Beyond the Fringe, or the Goons?

CR: Yeah, comedy is one of those things that I think the British do very well. Monty Python was on TV a lot, and more primetime stuff like The Two Ronnies, Morecambe and Wise, and Les Dawson. When the Young Ones and Blackadder came along, that kinda sealed it for me and I think a lot of my generation. I still notice it in the way people of my age talk, we’re so influenced by the way Ben Elton and Richard Curtis wrote for Blackadder. A whole generation of people who use the word “thingy” a lot.

BB: So saying you like The Goons is like saying you like Charlie Chaplin, right? Hey, did you know that Benny Hill was a very big show over here in the States in the ‘70s and early ‘80s? Used to play it on Channel 9 in NY late night. The Young Ones were on MTV.

CR: Ha ha! I do like Buster Keaton! For me the Goons was just one step removed from where humor was at. I watch it now, and totally appreciate it, but back then, with TYO and Blackadder, things had gotten a bit more, for want of a better word, punk in its attitude. Yeah, Benny Hill’s popularity in the US is one of those weird things that I don’t really understand. I was never really a fan, although I loved the Carry On… films, which were full of smut and innuendo. Proper British silliness. For example:

BB: That’s classic. So, you’ve done your site for several years. How did the book come about?

CR: I was very lucky; a literary agent Farley Chase got in touch with me about a week after the site went online. He liked the site, we had a meeting, and worked on a proposal. I’d also had contact with Pete Beatty, an editor at Bloomsbury, and while the proposal was being put together, he and I separately were having a continual email discussion about all sorts of stuff, mostly baseball, but we got on very well, so it was great that we ended up working together on the book.

BB: What was it like seeing images that you designed for a computer screen on the page?

CR: I’ve kinda gotten used to it over the years. Illustration being my day job, I’m used to seeing computer drawings printed in magazines and newspapers or in a couple of cases, on billboards. I am used to it, but the thrill never goes away. There is something nice about being able to flick through pages and see the colors. And especially for some of the more complex chart, they’d be difficult to fully appreciate on
screen.

BB: Did it change the nature of any of them? I know when I’ve done drawings or small paintings and then made bigger versions of them, the change in dimensions alters everything about the picture.

CR: Not really for the infographics, but certainly for the drawings. Especially the drawings made with the Brushes app, a fantastic painting tool for the iPhone, iPod touch, and iPad. They definitely feel more real printed in the book. I do some pictures by hand, but not that many. Those tend to be more sketchy/doodley. Since getting that app, I’ve found that I don’t really keep a sketchbook with me as much as I used to, cos I can do everything I want to do with my iPod.

BB: Do you ever worry about running out of ideas?

CR: I don’t. Over the years I’ve gotten used to those dry spells, but that’s the joy of the creative rainy seasons: there are always ideas backed up that I’ve not had time to use.

BB: Has the book changed your approach to your work?

CR: I don’t think it changed things that much. It did free me up to do a couple of the more detailed and large charts, because of the restrictions of screen sizes. And, yes, it’d be great to do it more than once, if only because it will mean that the first one was a success!

BB: Sweet. Just a few more, back to baseball. Since you started following it have you gone deeper into the game with each passing season or has some of the appeal worn off on you yet?

CR: Every passing season reminds me of how little I knew the previous season. When friends talk about some 80s reliever or first baseman, I’m at a loss. There’s so much I don’t know, that it hasn’t had a chance to wear off. And the last two seasons have been the first seasons where I have watched a team in the ballpark regularly. I enjoyed getting to know the Blue Jays last summer, and similarly, have enjoyed the Diablos Rojos del México this summer.

BB: Is there a particular period or decade that you are especially drawn to?

CR: Watching the Ken Burns thing, I very much enjoyed the dead ball era stuff, and from an aesthetic point of view, I like the 60s and 70s.

BB: What turns you off about the game? Both historically and currently?

CR: The color barrier, obviously. I don’t enjoy the moralistic outrage about steroids. It’s not just a baseball thing, but I wish homosexuality wasn’t just something that is ignored. The Indians logo, the Tomahawk chop. Taxpayers paying for ballparks is obscene. And, maybe it’s because I’m not American, maybe it’s because I’m not a patriotic person (I don’t see why I should be any more proud of an English person doing something great in sports or life than a German, Mexican, Chinese person doing those things); but the anthem, God Bless America, and militarism makes me a like uncomfortable. And I have absolutely no interest in anything Ty Cobb ever did on the field, because he seemed like what can only be described as a despicable human being. He’s where I put an asterisk. I’m quite sure there were other hideous baseball players, but he’s the one I’ve taken a particular dislike to. I wish MLB and the Hall of Fame would stop seeing themselves as moral guardians. And, quite frankly, a posthumous Hall of Fame entry for Marvin Miller would be disgraceful. They need to sort that shit out now before it’s too late.

The book is out now. Buy it at a store. Or a place like this.